Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Worse than Isabel?

11:00 AM EDT 8/23/2011 | The latest report on Hurricane Irene shows winds remain at 100 mph,  with little change in central pressure since the 8:00 AM advisory. The last Air Force Reconnaissance report showed 980 mb. The storm's satellite presentation has improved and despite some interaction with Hispaniola, Irene will pull away from the island later today, and undergo explosive intensification later today. it is not outside the realm of possibility for the storm to reach Category 4 strength within 24 hours.   

9:30 AM EDT 8/23/2011 | Prior to the 11 AM Hurricane Center update, we invite all readers and organizations which were impacted by Hurricane Isabel in 2003 to review this lessons learned" page for Isabel prepared with content from the Sterling VA NWS and NOAA. We ask this simple question of everyone in the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas: Knowing what happened in Isabel, what would you do differently this time? 

7:30 AM EDT 8/23/2011 | Hurricane Irene has the potential to achieve Category 4 status by tomorrow and all indications are the storm should reach the North Carolina coast as a mid-range Category 3 with winds of 125 mph (NHC) or greater. This scenario would produce impacts more widespread and significant than Hurricane Isabel in 2003. We urge school officials, emergency managers, event coordinators, Port Authority directors, transportation managers and health service organizations to begin implementing procedures now while weather is calm in the Eastern U.S. 

What we think Our multi-state Tropical Team conducted an extensive analysis and  collaboration last night with participants from 12 states. The consensus is for a North Carolina strike with hurricane-force impacts expected in eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay. A majority of the Delmarva Peninsula and the Baltimore-Washington Metropolitan area may see tropical-storm force windsrainfall and coastal surge reaching or exceeding that of Isabel in 2003. Unless the current NHC track changes considerably, it suggests impacts to the Mid-Atlantic will be similar in scope to Hurricane Floyd in 1999 (NOAA), Fran in 1996 (USGS) and Hazel in 1954 (NGS)

Be Storm Ready While changes in the storm track are expected even until landfall, it is reasonable to suggest that preparations commence in the event the storm track does not change favorably for these areas. NOAA, the National Hurricane Center and others have extensive online resources to guide your preparations for your family, property or organization. 

We will post additional storm risk assessment details later this morning, and will offer a specialized 1-page briefing document available by email for Operations departments. 


ravensbbr said...
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ravensbbr said...

While I'll give this site full and impressive, accurate marks for forecasting mid-Atlantic snowfall, winter weather, etc...I'm just not impressed by the danger-ranger approach and speculation I'm seeing here relating to tropical weather events. Stick to forecasting, not pretending to be FEMA, MEMA, etc. Keep holding down that panic button, kids. It's the Maryland way...

For a more informed, more intelligent and much better written discussion of weather events by more experienced tropical personnel, please see the following link (and no, I'm not affiliated with them, I just know where to look for factual tropical info)