Thursday, October 27, 2011

October Surprise, Part II ?

11:00 PM EDT 10/27/11 | TEAM STATEMENTS ON WEEKEND STORM | Please visit the Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Page in Facebook for rapid access to our storm projections organized by state for the Halloweekend winter weather event.


4:30 PM EDT 10/27/11 | WINTER STORMCAST TEAM UPDATE | Last night, the Winter Stormcast Team released a statement regarding the potential for some flakes mixing in with rain this weekend. However, latest computer model projections show that we will not be getting off as easily as we thought. Snow may be more of an issue here in Central Maryland than the computer models once indicated. With trees still full of leaves and potential wet snow in the forecast, power outages could be a major issue this weekend. 


Your Foot's Forecast Mid-Atlantic team will be collaborating for most of the evening to work up a detailed *TEAM STATEMENT* to be released between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM tonight. This weekend will be very busy like usual with activities such as Homecoming and Halloween festivities. If you have anything planned for this weekend, we urge you to keep checking in for more on this developing situation. (Lead Forecaster Connor Meehan)


7:30 PM EDT 10/26/11 | WINTER STORMCAST PRELIMINARY STATMENTAlthough the Mid Atlantic has had several mild days recently, major changes are coming to the region later this week. A cold front will usher in a significantly cooler airmass by late Thursday. We are watching for the potential of a weak storm to develop off the Carolina to Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday into Saturday. Temperatures across much of the Mid Atlantic Friday night will be in the upper 30s, and this will allow for a chilly rain to fall. Although these temperatures do not usually support any snow, temperatures throughout much of the atmosphere will be below freezing. 


TIMING: From the early morning hours Saturday through mid-morning, we believe there will be the possibility for snowflakes to mix in. The best chance for this will be across the northern and western suburbs of Washington, D.C. and Baltimore. However, areas within 25 miles of the Chesapeake Bay will have a harder time mixing with snow due to the warmer temperatures over the bay. 

IMPACTS: At this time we do not expect any snowfall accumulation for any portion of the region, and we are not expecting a period of all snow. Rainfall amounts will be up to one half inch, with the highest amounts across eastern portions of the region. Although this storm system should not have any significant impacts for the region, it is not a common occurrence for snowflakes to fall along the I-95 corridor in October. 

NEXT UPDATE: This is an evolving situation and our team is continuing to monitor for changes to any computer model projections, as well as traditional meteorological analysis of current observations. We will report on our findings as the evening progresses.  

(Author: Forecaster Jason M. Collaborators: Forecasters Ross H., Mike N.)

15 comments:

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

=-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O
Earthquakes, hurricanes, and October heavy snows?  I'M IN!  Still waiting for the Volcano this year.  If the models have their way, I could be in a foot of it and the Baltimore area 6 inches.  Will this be a historical Nor'Easter?  If the models verify, you bet.  I will pay close attention to tonight's runs and take a few stabs.

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

=-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

Winter storm watches have been issued by Mount Holly NJ, for the Reading, PA area.  I expect that these watches will creep further south tonight to the Mason Dixon line. 

Jen said...

Oh HECK yeah!!!! Party time!! Woot...ready andy?

Elaina-Lee Dill said...

I wasn't worried until I read Andy's comments, is that 6" falling or sticking?  I live in the Lutherville-Timonium area.

Jen said...

Whatever Andy gets, I usually get...soooo.....

BioPat said...

:-D Oh how I love to hear fom Andy!  Andy this must be some event to get you out of your mancave so early into the season; why I'll bet your tress are still so full of fall foliage you won't know whether to rake or blow the snow!  Of course, herein lies the problem; leaves still on the tress will catch that wind like a sail and take a number of trees down.  Now this could mean less fall raking, but also lots of firewood to chop and season quickly. 
  Currently, I am reading info about OC, MD being a hub of storm activity.  I sure am glad I anchored the bikes and deck chairs when we were down for that beautiful fall weekend last week.  The passing hours will give us much more info from the models; but this sure will be an interesting way to end October of 2011.  Andy, you are so right; Mother nature is throwng almost everything she's got at us this year!

Jen said...

She's making sure we know she's here, that's for sure!

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

NWS STATE COLLEGE:

<pre>The timing of the precipitation would have rain/snow overspreading the County Warning Area
from south to north after midnight early Sat morning...with the
heaviest quantitative precipitation forecast during the day Saturday. Will update the severe weather potential statement
highlighting the increasing confidence and potential for a high
impact early season snow event. Later shifts may need to consider
ww headlines if later arriving guidance remains consistent with todays
runs. Precipitation should end shortly after 00z sun as the low lifts northeastward toward
the New England benchmark.
</pre>

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

I think the NWS is right in being conservative, BUT the guidance is screaming heavy snow.  If I had to hedge my bets right now given the climatology of central MD, I would GUESS that 3-6 inches of snow from Baltimore points NW is clearly on the table.  In higher elevations to the NW 4-8 on the ground is a good early guess. Timing, dynamics, convecetion, etc. are going to be critical.  I would be sceaming 8-14 inches of snow if this were after Thanksgiving, but it is not and this extreme early season event still has to battle marginal surface temps.  It will win the battle, but a lot of snow will be chewed up in the process.  

My best advice is to follow CHANGING LOCAL FORECASTS closely.  I really do expect that the media will be hinking the horn by lunchtime.

ravensbbr said...

WOOT! How have my fellow powderhounds been since March? Awesome to get an early chance for snow here in NE CC!

Off today with the kids, teaching them how to change the snowblower's oil and get 'er all set for tommorrow. Running through great online checklist for prep, can be found here if anyone's interested.

http://factoidz.com/getting-your-snow-blower-ready-for-action/

Here's to another year of snowy drifts, frozen fingers, helping out our neighbors and friends, and, when the snow is cleared, relaxing with multiple adult beverages with an ABV of 5% . Or higher. :)

Julie Ray Smith said...

unfreaking believable. I have planned and rescheduled a baby christening no less than 3 times this month. Finally got every member of my family on board for Sunday. The one time I don't wish a monster snow. geesh >:o

Brad Lear said...

You get your tee-shirt, Pat?

ravensbbr said...

Andy, how much of this do you think will actually stick to paved surfaces?

Jen said...

I think we will lose about 10-20% of the snow on the pavement before it starts to actually stick..that is pavement. Now grassy areas will see it all. That's what I think. Depends too how fast the surface cools down. If it comes down in masses, especially with thundersnow (yes thats right...thundersnow) the pavements, might see it all too...