Tuesday, November 15, 2011

At least November is nice, for now...

11;00 AM EST 11/15/11 | Updated Team Statement | With much of the Mid-Atlantic experiencing unseasonably warm temperatures yesterday and today, our Severe Weather Team collaborated Monday night on potential stormy weather for portions of this region. Severe Weather occured last night in portions of Ohio, as recorded by Forecaster Jason Warren of our Northeast Ohio Zone, who observed small hail in a thunderstorm from this Youtube video in that zone.  

CURRENT SITUATION: A cold front draped from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast will slowly track east along the Appalachians today into Wednesday. Low pressure will develop along over the Appalachians during this time. A warm front should extend eastward from the low over Virginia. Along and south of this front is where we expect the chance for a few strong to severe storms from late this afternoon into Wednesday afternoon hours. 
NOAA Storm Prediction Center Outlook: Tue and Wed


A VIEW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS: Please visit our Affiliate Forecast Team ConvectiveWeather for a local view on the situation affecting the Southern States.


HAZARD OVERVIEW
  • Threat area: From southern Virginia southward into central and eastern North Carolina.
  • Impacts: High winds, small hail and possibly an isolated tornado will be the main threats from any strong to severe storms that develop. 
  • Timing: Wednesday 11/16 from the mid-morning hours into the evening.
NON-SEVERE RISKS
  • Risks: Non-severe thunderstorms will be possible north of this area from central Virginia to Southern Maryland to the lower Eastern Shore of Maryland. 
  • Timing: Wednesday morning to the early evening hours. 
  • Impacts: Moderate to heavy rainfall can also be expected over much of the Mid Atlantic, and rainfall amounts should reach one inch for most areas. 
  • Severe weather  is not expected in these areas, however strong winds aloft may be able to mix down wind gusts of 35-45 mph in any thunderstorms that roll through these areas.
(Author: Forecaster Jason M. Collaborators: Forecasters Greg J., Josh O. Daniel Ross, Mr. Foot)

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