Thursday, November 17, 2011

Just when you thought it was safe...

derived from SPC Storm Reports
9:40 AM EST 11/17/11 
SEVERE OUTBREAK & NEXT STORM The surprisingly strong and widespread severe weather outbreak in the Southeast from 11/16-17 yielded the following preliminary reports from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center: 25 tornadoes, 87 reports of winds of 65 knots or higher and 9 reports of hail of 2" in diameter or larger. 

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? As reported in our Winter Stormcast Zone, the Forecast Team is continuing to target the period from November 25 to December 5 as the next time frame for a significant winter storm in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This storm may be preceded by an equally widespread snow event for the Upper Great Lakes by early to middle of next week. In full disclosure, we have been targeting that time period now since late September and established the specific data ranges on October 22. 

OUR RATIONALE? Based on an evolution of the overall long range pattern, we have been tracking and analyzing what appears to be a general 30-45 day cycle of major events in the Eastern U.S. An influencing factor in this trend has been changes in atmospheric teleconnections such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation, among others. In September and October, we projected a mid-November warmup would occur along the East coast, followed by a cold front that would bisect from west to east, with a sharply colder air mass behind it. 

SO THE NEXT STORM IS... Now long range computer models are beginning to hint at one or more coastal storms along the Mid-Atlantic starting by next Wednesday, and repeating into early December, in addition to a possible major storm in the Western Great Lakes. While it is too early to tell if these storms will turn out as rain or snow, if you are looking for a front-row seat to a continuation of the wild weather got it. As Bill Paxton from the 1996 film Twister said, "Tighten your seat belt."

(Forecaster Foot and the Long Range Team)

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