Saturday, December 3, 2011

Ah, La Nina...there you go again.

8:30 AM EST 12/3/11 | On this first Saturday in December, we see a wide-ranging winter storm plowing through the Midwest sandwiched by a third day of sunshine in the East, and brazenly strong winds up to 150 mph in canyons of California. These fast-moving high- intensity type events are a continuation of the La Nina driven pattern which we expect will dominate the winter ahead. 


MIDWEST STORM: For our readers in this region, we have forecasters reporting from  Central Colorado and Kansas to Southeast Wisconsin. The Colorado Team of Forecasters Tifona and Nikki, with Advisor Keith are covering the "digging out weather" in that area. Our Affiliate Forecaster CirrusWeather in Kansas is covering the event from that region on their website and facebook page


REGIONAL ROUNDUP: For access to an overview of forecasts posted by our team in their respective states, the latest is always posted in the banner tabs by region: EasternCentral and Western. Many thanks to Senior Advisor Brad Lear for his daily diligence in editing and seeing that forecaster content always renders properly on this page.


The section below details a portion of our Final Official Winter Forecast for 2011-12 for the Mid-Atlantic. Forecasts provided by our other regions on the team will be linked in a followup statement to this section. The discussion starts with near-term weather pattern, and ends with how December into January look from a long range perspective regarding storm potential. The full report is in the Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Zone on facebook.

WINTER PATTERN PROJECTIONS
Although over the last several years portions of the Mid-Atlantic have become notorious for receiving snow around December 5, a mild airmass and warm ground temperatures will prevent this from becoming a snow event for much of this region. 



1. DECEMBER 5 TO 20: A storm system is expected to track east of the Appalachian Mountains Tuesday. Instead, heavy rain may be a concern Tuesday into early Wednesday. As the system begins to pull away from the region Wednesday, rain may mix and possibly changeover to snow for the mountainous areas in the Mid Atlantic. However, at this time we do not expect a significant chance for any snow east of the mountains.


2. DECEMBER 21 TO 31:  In looking ahead, we know many of you are yearning for snow as we head toward the holidays. A major factor reducing our chances for snow is the lack of it in areas to our north. As noted in these two links from the National Snow & Ice Data Center, there is a startling contrast between current U.S. snowcover from Dec 1 2011 of  as compared to December 1 2010.

CONCLUSION: It is possible that the period from Dec 21-31 may produce accumulating snow, but we believe the best chances for that will be after Dec 31. By then ample snowcover should have developed in SE Canada by then to aid in a reserve of cold air that is needed for a traditional coastal snowstorm.

11 comments:

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

Winter is passed out on the couch with an empty bottle of booz by the side.  An awakening might soon be in the works though.  The coffee pot is set to slow brew, and the alarm clock set for LOUD!  When will the coffee be ready?  When will the alarm sound? No one can say exactly, but I'm looking at the period of 12/14-12/20 for the sober awakening!  In the mean time, sharpen the snow blower blades and enjoy the calm if you can stand it, and remember that mistletoe and alcohol can be a dangerous mixture.  :*

Jason Mitchell said...

Hey Andy, if you like we would love to have you participate in our team discussions involving the upcoming winter. I love seeing your posts here. :)

ravensbbr said...

Jason, <span><span>dude, if you move Andy up to the big leagues, you owe the rest of us regular old observers here on the message boards not one but TWO first round draft picks next year and a weather forecaster to be named later...plus a megakhanuafreakingbigsnowstorm to be delievered by Christmas. Just sayin'... 
</span></span>

Jason Mitchell said...

Ahh yeah I do get your point…

ravensbbr said...

Chat with Ozzie Newsome and Jim Duquette first, they'll get you on the right track. On second thought, given the current state of both teams, just check with Ozzie. :-P

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

Starting to smell the coffee, hearing some stirring, along with some monosyllabic grunts coming from the futon that has been winters sanctuary, from the over indulgence of recent Gary Busey like snow binges we have had since 2009. 

Fortunately for us, Old Man Winter is not going into rehab anytime soon.  Rehab is for quitters, and quitting is not an option when you have the snow habit of a typical powder hound.  With that being said, it appears that the window that has been painted shut is starting to open.

Our first serious threat appears to be around 12/8-12/9.  What "COULD" it bring you ask?  What is the "POTENTIAL"?  Well if some models are right, and that is a "BIG IF", we are looking at a 6-12 inch "THREAT".

Details will sort themselves out in the upcoming days, but we are at least in the game.  What the final score will be no one can say, but if you are a betting man it would not be a bad idea to pawn your warm season valuables, spin the old roulette wheel, and put your money on WHITE.  :-$ 8-)

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

Jason I am humble and honored at the invitation to participate in the Honors Conclave!  You guys are top notch and are really helping the casue of weather awarness and education.  I am insanely busy and it takes someone who has some morefree time to truly participate and break things down in an organized manner as you guys do.  I have very little free time at the moment, so it is easier for me to throw my 2 cents in the comments section at sporadic moments when the situation demands.

It is better for me to be the Best Student in Special Education, than the worst student in the Honors Program.  I have always been a back of the bus kind of guy.  The student who one yer achieved perfect attendence in Detention.  When I did miss Detention the school would call home just to make sure everything was ok.  "We haven't seen Andy around for the last few days, the referals have slacked off, is everythig ok"?  No need to worry though, as I was totally innocent of the infractions brought agaisnt me, well except for a few O:-) .  I honestly did not know a rubberband could travel so fast and leave a red mark that big, did not realize a spitball go that far, and was truly sorry for blinding the nun with reflecting sunlight from a mirror and still don't beleive the spilled coffee it caused was as hot as the school claimed, =-O

Jason Mitchell said...

Ok thanks for the reply, I appreciate it. ;)

NeedaSnowday said...

i NeedaSnowday!!

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

I think the 14th-20th is our best window for a regionwide heavy snow.  The first threat comes this week with Wednesday night into Thursday.  I like the pattern for 12/14-12/20 and think the window is greatest for a more classic storm.  Time will tell.

Mary in Hydes said...

Your words are making me very happy Andy.  I am ready for snow.  This has been such a weird season so far.