Thursday, December 1, 2011

Archives: Central Maryland Team
December 2011

3:45 PM 12/16/11 Happy Friday Central Maryland! Temperatures across the region are dropping now and will be continue to be accompanied by at 10-20mph wind with gusts to 30mph. Dress warm! Lows tonight will drop just below freezing and places in extreme southern Maryland may see some snow flakes tonight as a storm slides well to our south. The weekend will be dry with average temperatures. 

Have a GREAT rest of the day and weekend ahead!

9:30 AM 12/15/11 | Quiet for Winter Concerts Forecaster Connor: Good morning! Unlike earlier in the week, temperatures are in the 40's as we leave for school and work. Temperatures will make it all the way into the upper 50's this afternoon. 

Unfortunately, light rain should  move in after 2pm this afternoon. Rain should not last more than a few hours and should stay light. As rain ends tonight, lows will dip into the lower 40's under cloudy skies with a 10-15mph breeze. For Friday, sunny skies and upper 40's return!

The best news is that none of this weather should interfere with long-planned and well-rehearsed winter concerts being performed in many schools across the area. Best wishes to all the student performers! Have a great day everyone.

5:00 AM 12/7/11 Now that is what we call Fast and Furious | The coastal bomb, currently at 989 millibars, has raced northeast to the Massachusetts coast and will leave behind clear skies and windy conditions today. School delays are available at this link: If you have experienced snow, flooding or wind damages this rapid fire event, please report yourobservations and location below.

A full update on what to expect heading into the weekend will be posted in the next hour. Here is a science tidbit for Meteorology fans and science teachers, who, like sports fans, love statistics: This storm will more than qualify as the classic "atmospheric bomb." 

As Forecaster Jason first noted, the pressure fall from this storm over an 18-hour period from noon Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday will end up near 40 millibars! HPC projects the storm to reach 961 mb within a few hours:

NWS Sterling latest spotter reports

1:55 PM 12/7/11   Forecaster Jason's analysis of the latest short range computer models shows that the projected back edge of precip, at 1AM tonight, may be from northern VA to about Hagerstown. Given the progressive and potentially explosive nature of the storm, energy may be draw in more quickly along the coast. This would pull the majority of precip out of MD by 4 AM. The faster timing of this scenario would also lead to limiting how much time there is for snow to fall, and allow road crews time to catch up to the event prior to traffic building Thursday morning. 

Bottom line: Students and teachers along and east of 95, we encourage you to do your homework or lesson plans accordingly. Despite some dynamical cooling tonight, the lack of available cold air at low and mid levels will be the reason why you'll have to "wait until next time" if you want a solid snowday in the Baltimore region.

12:00 PM 12/7/11  We are examining the latest computer model data to identify when we believe the target period for change over of rain to snow will occur, and when the heaviest snow is likely. Present information shows that rain should begin changing to snow by late evening from west to east. Areas in Frederick and Carroll Counties should see snow first by midnight, with Baltimore, Howard and Harford Counties by 2 AM. 

Current NWS Sterling Advisory Map
The period of heaviest snow, though lasting only a few hours, may occur in the critical pre-dawn hours. While heavy accumulations over 1" are not expected, low visibility will be the primary hazard in the I-95 corridor and suburban areas north and west until precip begins to clear the area by 7 AM in Frederick and Carroll and by 8 AM in Howard, Baltimore and Harford.

We do not expect Anne Arundel County to see much in the way of snow or accumulation.  

8:50 AM 12/7/11 
Current Sterling NWS Advisories | Interactive Snow Map | The Sterling NWS has a helpful ‎map that shows both current snowfall projections and an interactive "live-link" to advisory information specific by location on the map. 

6:30 AM 12/7/11
A STORMY NIGHT AHEAD | Forecaster Connor: Good morning! As expected, a steady rain has developed over the region making for what should be a nightmare of a morning commute. Rain will continue to fall for most of the day and will be heavy at times. Currently, temperatures are close to 60° but will be falling all day, reaching the upper 40's by 5pm. 

TONIGHT: As a strong piece of energy rides the coast and moves towards the ocean, the storm will rapidly intensify which will help to bring in more cold air. By 12-1am, rain will mix with or transition to all snow and could fall at a good rate for a few hours. If snowfall rates are heavy enough, snow may be able to stick to roads. 

ADVISORIES: Winter Weather Advisories are posted for much of the region, except for Anne Arundel County, as shown in the latest NWS Sterling Map:
 According to the NWS, up to 2-4" of snow are expected for areas about 700 ft, with 1-2" possible lower areas. 

ACCUMULATIONS: Our team expects 1-2" on the ground by Thursday morning between Frederick/Westminster and I-95 and a coating-1" for areas south and east of I-95. 

As we keep a very close eye on the movement of this storm, we will be sure to let you know of any changes in our forecast. Have a nice day, drive safely! 

(Forecasters Connor and Mike, Advisor Mr. Foot)

No comments: