Saturday, May 28, 2011

One Tornado on Saturday...Goal Today = Zero


Sunday, 5/29/2011- 11:40 AM EDT


A System developing over the Rockies will move its precipitation into the Plains by tomorrow. High elevation snow will fall, and the storm will combine with Gulf moisture to produce rain and possible thunderstorms in the Northern Plains, and Great Lakes. Similar weather will be in store for the Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday.

The Northeast may see some precipitation from a front moving through that region.

Snow is forecast for Nevada and Minnesota.

There is a possibility of severe weather in a band from Texas, into Kansas, and through the Upper Plains into the Great Lakes. One tornado was reported yesterday in Minnesota.

Fire Conditions are dangerously critical in much of the Southwest.

Flooding continues in the West, and in the major river basins.



See STORMCAST for more details.



Maybe, Just Maybe, We'll Have Less Severe Weather?


Saturday, 5/28/2011- 11:00 AM EDT


A Pacific Northwest Low will move into Western States bringing a variety of precipitation by Sunday. Elevation will dictate which type from Northern California into the Central Rockies. The Low that brought us some much severe weather is finally moving off into Canada. Its remnants will leave rain and thunderstorms behind from the Central Appalachians to New England through this evening. Severe thunderstorms are a slight risk across the central regions of the country. A large portion of the Southwest is under Critical Fire Weather Statements today.


See STORMCAST for more details.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

A Bit of a Break....?

...perhaps...

Thursday, 26 May 1:00PM EDT

A deep Low over the Ohio Valley will move slowly toward the Northeast continuing the threat of severe weather from the Gulf to New England. The storms are not expected to have the punch of those of the past several days, though. A series of depressions moving inland will bring rain and snow to the West. High pressure dominates the Heartland. The Mississippi has apparently maxed out, and should continue falling through the weekend. Other areas still under flood dangers include the Yellowstone River, North and South Dakota, Lake Champlain, and The Chesapeake.

Winter Storm Warnings are posted for Washington and Idaho.

There were 81 tornadoes reported yesterday, with no fatalities reported at this time. Red Flags are up in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Colorado, and Florida.

See STORMCAST for updates


Sunday, May 22, 2011

It's not in Kansas anymore, 
but it was earlier today
photo credit: Kansas City Star. The city remains under Tornado Watch #369 until 6:00 PM CDT, following a warning earlier this afternoon as storms  barreled through the Plains, producing 15 twisters so far today according to the SPC.


High Risk across the Mississippi Valley 
**Updates in Stormcast**

2:25 PM EDT Wednesday 5/25/2011 The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has a large portion of the Central Mississippi Valley in a Moderate to High Risk for Severe Weather today into tonight. The overall risk, though slight in some areas, has expanded eastward for tomorrow to include every major metropolitan area in roughly one-third of the country. Areas in this risk regions are likely to see tornadoes, some large, as well as damaging hail and destructive wind gusts over 70 mph.


Tornado Watches # 370 and # 371 in the central and southern plains are rated a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" by the SPC. Supercell thunderstorms in these areas may produce large, long-track and highly destructive tornadoes not unlike what struck Joplin, Missouri and Oklahoma City. In addition, these storms can also produce large, damaging hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and straight-line wind gusts over 70 mph. We urge all readers in these regions to remain in a sturdy underground shelter if a tornado warning is issued in your area, and until then closely monitor your local NWS forecast office for any additional warnings which are likely. An 30 % probability for tornadoes in the Mid-Mississippi Valley is noted on this outlook map shown below.


The widespread atmospheric instability which has produced over 130 tornadoes since Saturday will continue to drive development of severe weather from the Midwest to the East.  These conditions include a dynamic surface and upper level low pressure system, driven by an active sub-polar jet stream, is enhancing wind shear and tornadic activity across this area as a cold front pushes east into a warm and humid air mass over the outlooked area. Thunderstorms may also develop in regions outside the SPC's risk area, as indicated by this experimental graphic for thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening.



As you know, the terrifying fast outbreak of tornadoes on Sunday left at least 124 fatalities in Joplin, Missouri. An aerial overview (Youtube | school-friendly ABC news video) of the damage caused by this historic EF-5 twister that was a mile wide at one point. Our team conveys heartfelt sympathy to this latest round of families which have suffered another devastating blow from the forces of nature.  We certainly hope, as many of you do, that this period of severe weather will be coming to an end as quickly as possible.

THE RISK EXPANDS EAST Mild to warm in the east, cooler in the west. Threat of rain and thunderstorms increases the farther north and east your location. The cold front that has been firing storms in the Midwest will continue transporting warm moist air ahead of it. Upon reaching the Eastern seaboard by Thursday, front is likely to stall. As shown on this 2-day map projection by the NWS, much of the Eastern U.S. will enter a classic May "stationary front" pattern by end of the week. Not what wedding planners and outdoor graduation organizers want to hear, but waves of weak low pressure should develop along the frontal boundary toward Friday, delivering periods of rain and cooler conditions in the period from Thu May 25 to Sat May 27 as noted in the graphic above.


HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS WEEK NOAA and the National Hurricane Center have rolled out what our team believes is the most important week of preparation for those living near or along coastal areas. The NHC has produced a series of multi-media presentations for the public each day of this week, which we will post in the Tropical Zone and on the Tropical Facebook page. For teachers and students unable to view a Youtube video in school, you can at least get the audio from the Hurricane Preparedness website.

STUDENTS KEEPING WATCH Our Affiliate Forecaster Joe Puma of the Puma Weather Center in metro Chicago has posted a preliminary report on the Missouri outbreak on his main site and facebook forecast page. For the latest severe weather advisories, visit your local NWS office or our Stormcast page.

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Welcoming a glorious weekend
for multi-state outdoor events
10:00 AM EDT Saturday 5/21/11 Residents of the East Coast finally get to bask in the pleasantries of a sun-splashed Saturday as high pressure dominates the surface from New England to the Gulf coast. However, thoughts and concerns also remain focused on the on-going and catastrophic Mississippi River flooding across the Deep South. In support of weather safety and public awareness, our Forecast Team and Advisors are volunteering or producing forecasts in multiple states today, covering a Hurricane Expo, the Maryland Preakness and Severe Weather potential. Among the highlights for today:


In Central Florida
Our team is co-hosting a booth at the TAMPA BAY HURRICANE EXPO, represented by Lead Forecaster Matt Bolton of the Central Florida Zone, and Meteorologist/Advisor H. Michael Mogil of How The Weatherworks, a weather education and training company partnered with Foot's Forecast. This successful outdoor festival/program, hosted by the Tampa Museum of Science & Industry (known as MOSI) promotes public awareness and preparation in advance of the hurricane season each year. It really is a fun-filled, family-oriented event that helps businesses and communities alike familiarize with the steps needed to be well-prepared for a hurricane. Thinking about hosting one in your state, visit the 30-second Youtube video spotfor ideas on how to make it real.


The Tampa Expo is appropriately timed with yesterday's release of NOAA's 2011 Hurricane Season Forecast, in which federal meteorologists project 12 to 18 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. The multi-state* Tropical Team of Foot's Forecast has recently collaborated to produce our seasonal Hurricane Forecast, during which we project 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 majors. The scientific rationale of our call is being organized into a 1-page "2011 Tropical Forecast Summary" to be initially available as a PDF upon request by emailing us at footsforecast@gmail.com.



In Central Maryland
We were invited to collaborate with The Baltimore Sun to produce today's exclusive video forecast for the 136th racing of the Preakness at Pimlico Race-track in Central Maryland. Our video is posted toward bottom of the Sun website, and you can get the latest on race day events from the Baltimore Sun's Preakness site.

From the West to the Deep South
Despite a quieter weekend in some locations, many other members of the Foot's Forecast team are quietly going about their job to provide collaborative weather prediction and education outreach in multiple states across the U.S.


In Washington State, Forecaster Mark Ingalls of the Pacific Northwest page keeps watch in our on the next event aiming for the Oregon coast, while Storm Chaser/Forecaster Vince Webb in Central Mississippi monitors for the next tornado outbreak potential. Forecaster Jeremy Buckles, a student at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville, has posted a welcoming and calm weekend outlook for the region in our East Tennessee page. Affliliate Forecaster Joe Puma of metro Chicago in between enjoying the welcome nice weather in the Midwest, posted a weekend forecast discussion at the Puma Weather Center on the next potential for Severe weather.


*Multi-state Tropical Team collaborators on 2011 forecast:
Daniel Ross, graduate in Meteorology (Georgia Tech) & Southeast Administrator
Paul Prance, gradate in Engineering (Georgia Tech) & Central Georgia Forecaster
Jason Mitchell, Lead Forecaster - Capital Region & Central Maryland
Matt Bolton, Lead Forecaster - Central Florida & Weather Camp graduate


Advisors:
Forrest Palmer, Southeast Team, Forecaster & Education Outreach Advisor
H. Michael Mogil, Meteorologist - How The Weatherworks
Dr. Pete Winstead, Meteorologist