Saturday, February 18, 2012

"Joshua, what are you doing?"

"Joshua, what are you doing?"
- Professor Falkin in the 1984 film War Games (Youtube clip)

View a water vapor imagery loop from the East Pacific

11:10 AM EST 2/18/12 Intriquing developments overnight in surface and satellite observations across the southern Plains and East Pacific suggest that the potential winter storm outcome in the Mid-Atlantic may be significantly altered by the following factors: 
  • A strong feed of tropical moisture from the East Pacific is fueling heavy rain, flood warnings and severe weather risks in southern Texas;
  • This feed of moisture has produced a large area of expanding precipitation surging north and northeast (NWS regional radar below)
  • The upper level synoptic (or large scale) setup of this event at present bears striking similarities with the January 28-30, 2010 event. 

NWS UPDATES: Several National Weather Service Forecast Offices in the Mid-Atlantic have begun altering their statements with regard to snow potential in that region. When looking at the National Weather Service in Baltimore it stated, "00Z NCEP Guidance Suppressed Precipitation further south...06z then trended somewhat back to the north." We strongly encourage our colleagues in the National Weather Service to closely reexamine their report on the January 2010 eventA detailed report and revised scenarios with snow totals is posted in the Winter Stormcast Zone.

SOUTHEAST TEAM UPDATES: Our seven state forecast team in the Southeast is posting extensive updates every hour in their Facebook pages. You can access their information by liking our Southeast Regional page now. Auto updates containing NWS warnings are also posted in our Southeast Severe page

Think we're hyping it for ratings? Take a look at exactly what we said on January 24, 2010 when the team was quoted as saying "a prolonged period of snow from January 30 to February 10." 

We're not whistling Dixie this time around either. We are observing strong and convincing data that many along the Mid-Atlantic may face a similar surprise to what happen on that fateful Saturday in January. Maybe it's time the Meteorologists out there ask "Joshua" (the computer model) what is he doing?
(Forecasters Foot and Isaacs)


hocoKtchr said...

After reading the winter stormcast...I'm hoping for Scenerio C....wildcard!  Again...just for fun!  ;)

But, since I believe that Needy is in Florida with her school group....I hope she can get everyone home safely!  :)

Scenria C could be a bug kahuna/ Manwich event!  heehee

ravensbbr said...

So in light of this new set of possible scenarios, has the NAO changed?

Not the North Atlantic Oscillation.

The Negative Andy Outlook. :-P

Mike in Richmond said...

Maybe we wouldn't think you were hyping for ratings if you'd actually make a prediction.

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

I have put this one to bed.  This mornings data is very much agaisnt accumulating snow in the Baltimore area.  The best we will see in the immediate Baltimore area is non accumulating snow showers, or some light snow that will not stick.  850's are generally cold but surface and ground temps far to warm for accumulation.  VERY little QPF to work with North of VA.  Even in central VA surface temps are far too warm for significant accumulation.

Believe me if I could make it snow I would.  In the ideal life I would spend my witners in some snowy mountain town for 6 months and the other 6 at some tropical island ( a man needs balance :-P )  We have been unbalance this year with a HOT HOT summer and NO WINTER STORMS.  

Here is to a little balance in March, but this storm will not do the trick for ANY of us. :'(  

Katherine Engers said...

thanks for the update Andy