Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Love for the Powderhounds

12:45 PM EST 2/14/12 | Today's lead story is from the morning update by Lead Forecaster Connor of our Central Maryland Team (and on Facebook). The Winter Stormcast Team has also posted an early outlook on possible winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic for President's Weekend. 

We hope the #Powderhound in you will "like" this photo from five years during the Valentine's Day "SuperKahuna" of 2007 in the Mid-Atlantic. It's a reminder  that despite a low-snow winter so far for many places, high-impact weather is still very possible this time of year in an active pattern such as what has been observed across the country. 

On this day in 2007, the I-95 corridor received several inches of snow, then an inch of ice. Many in the school systems remember how we all went in under Winter Storm Warnings and then had to slog our way home following three hour early dismissals. Those were the days!! (Unless you had to drive in it. Thanks to Mr. Foot for submitting the pic. 

Today's Featured Zone: Central Maryland

For the Mid-Atlantic, this Valentine's Day does not look quite as wintry. In Maryland, morning temperatures just above freezing will rise into the upper 40s this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. 
  • Snow? The most love Mother Nature will be showing with snow is just across the line in southern PA. A quick moving upper level system is creating some flurries and light mix up that way. 
  • For here: A few sprinkles or flurries are also possible this morning and afternoon in Central Maryland. Don't worry about any accumulations due to the fact that surface temperatures are already above freezing. 
  • For dinner tonight: Lows will drift back to near freezing with the just a few isolated sprinkles persisting until midnight. No worries for your evening plans for Valentine's dinner and a movie. 
For Maryland, Wednesday looks to be the only fabulous day of the week with sunny skies and highs in the 50s. Happy Valentine's Day to all, have a great one! (Lead Forecaster Connor)

Connor is a senior at Atholton High School in Howard County, MD and has served as the Lead Forecaster of our Central Maryland Team since June 1, 2011.


Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

Andy - you devil, while I do not know BioPat personally, I am sure if we met many years ago...who knows I might be said husband. He sounds like a logical guy, if perhaps more neophyte in his observation of forecasted weather. But I like the cut of the jib of his shirt and I am backing him in our consternation with the current weather patter to date and what that could mean with the battle of the two models. That being said if I am using my snow blower on Monday I will happily change avatar to BUG KAHUNA and pay homage to the mighty ManWich behind the curtain.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
this period should start off fair and dry as PA will be within
high pressure zone under confluent flow aloft. However by Sunday
things start to look potentially interesting as the majority of
the medium range models show a significant synoptic wave lifting
northeastward out of the Gomex. There is a large spread with this system and
therefore forecaster confidence is low and uncertainty is high.
The large model spread is likely due at least in part to the
evolving split-flow pattern progressing from west to east across
the Continental U.S.. the long term grids were constructed using a manual
blend which allowed for mention of precipitation over the southern zones on day
6/sun giving a nod to the European model (ecmwf)/NOGAPS despite the majority of
the guidance showing a low track to far to the south to impact
the County Warning Area. <span>This system definitely bears watching with the potential
for significant wintry precipitation northwest of the low track. It should also be
noted that the GFS and its ensemble mean have at times shown an eastern
bias with respect to developing East Coast storms at longer


Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

A threat is a threat but are you willing to bet?

Replace you avitar with the best <span>BUG KAHUNA image out there?</span>

two examples - I am sure there are better ones:

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

This is the last patch of snow holding on to the bitter end today despite temps near 50.  Had some rain tonight but the patch is still intact, despite warm drizzle. 

BioPat said...

  Morpheus, your post is very interesting; however some clarification.   BioPat is a she not a he, but does teach in an all male high school.  Just one of those names that is more politically correct than not. 
  As we continue to watch these models develop the continued threat of real snow is  increasing the volume of juices secreting from our snow glands. It is my hope that we'll be collectively tuning the snowblowers for a workout on Monday.  However, we're still a long way out and many things can and will change over the course of that time span.  In the interim, I for one, am praying for the high to setup perfectly to allow that snow to glide right up on the coast providing us all with some much needed white , fluffy manna.

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

Yes I know, Andy joked about us being married and I was referring to your husband. In another post I was trying to bate Andy into a bet but he is ignoring me. Hope'n for snow!

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

=-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O

The BLIZZARD of 2012?

IT'S POSSIBLE.  Devil in the details for Sunday. 
Just a THREAT at this range, but certainly a VIABLE option