Thursday, February 16, 2012

"The status quo has changed."
-Patrick Gates, played by Jon Voight in National Treasure (Trailer)

Photo credit: Baltimore Sun Maryland Weather Blog
showing a fine day in Charm City, February 2003.
12:05 PM EST 2/16/12 | For those tracking developments in latest computer model trends for the Mid-Atlantic weekend snow threat, the most recent projections continue to point towards a significant event Sunday into Monday. NOAA Meteorologists and our team have both been examining recent outputs from the Global Forecast System, monitoring climate teleconnections and other data to identify early signals in this storm system. Our team is posting a new statement in the Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Zone momentarily. 


NEXT STEPS FOR THE FORECAST
  • Liquid equivalent: Preliminary ideas to be posted in this evening's update;
  • Timing & scenarios: In tonight's statement, we may begin narrowing the scenarios to a "Hypothesis A vs. B" 
HOW MUCH AND WHEN? 
Our preliminary snowfall ideas are generally posted around the 72 hour mark. Given that the regions at risk in the Mid-Atlantic are outside 72 hours until onset of snow, we issue more information after full set of land-based NWS stations have generated observations about the upper level systems in play.


COULD THIS BE "PD III"? 
The acronym "PD III" suggests that if this storm were to become as significant as some computer models are indicating, it might earn a place in the historical record as a distant cousin to President's Day storms of the past: 
  • PD I was the famous storm of February 18-19, 1979
  • PD II is the more recent storm of February 15-18, 2003. 
This article by the Baltimore Sun's Maryland Weather Blog takes you back to the fond memories ... strained backs and stranded cars... that are part of February climatology in the Mid-Atlantic.

STAY WITH US 
Continue checking this page and our Winter Stormcast Zone, which is also on Facebook for the Mid-Atlantic, for the latest ideas later this morning. We provide our readers with a "wide-angle" view on analyses from certified, broadcast and degreed meteorologists and forecasters across 20 states, collaborating on latest observations and computer model outputs. (Photo credit: Carroll County Times picture of Forecaster Greg Jackson in a September 2011 article) 


If you're interested in joining our team, please visit our "Opportunities" tab on this site.


(Forecasters Foot, Greg J. Matt Balash, Coordinator Dakota S. and Meteorologist Justin Berk) 

15 comments:

hocoKtchr said...

Bring on the snow!!!  Faith in the flakes!!!!   :*

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

=-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O
=-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
231 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

VALID 12Z MON FEB 20 2012 - 12Z THU FEB 23 2012


...MODELS CONVERGING ON SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR MID ATLANTIC
DAY 3...

USED THE 12Z/15 ECENS MEAN FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...WITH MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS
TOWARD THE 00Z/16 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR THE EAST COAST SYSTEM
DAY 3. THE ECENS MEAN HAS PROVIDED THE STEADIEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD FOR MANY MODEL CYCLES NOW...WITH THE
VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS FINALLY CONVERGING TOWARD ITS MASS
FIELDS. THE GFS AND UKMET...WHICH HAD SHOWN GREATER INTERACTION
WITH THE SPLIT STREAMS OVER THE EAST DAY 3...ARE NOW STAGGERING
THE TIMING OF THE WAVES TOWARD THE BALANCE DEPICTED BY THE ECENS
MEAN. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SPREAD...THE GEM GLOBAL AND
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WHICH HAD LARGELY SUPPRESSED THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...ARE NOW SHIFTING TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN BALANCE AS WELL.
THE WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL OF THE MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM HAS SOME
STRONG CLIMATOLOGY BEHIND IT...NOT ONLY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT
ALSO THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
TRACK OF THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. OVER THE WEST...THE
SPLIT STREAMS SHOW NO SIGNS OF RECONFIGURING...WITH THE UPSHOT NO
PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD ONSHORE FLOW EVENTS THIS FORECAST.


CISCO
=-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O
=-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

Why am I always the last person to know about a storm coming?  Why could noone ever tell me a week ago that there was the potential for this?  I thought it was supposed to be sunny and in the 50's?  If only I read Foot's Forecast, I would have known there was a threat.  Shame on me.
:'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

This is truly the BUG KAHUNA.  I thought I might have eaten a bad can of Manwhich, or had Aqua Velva poisoning from the blue goo seeping into a cut after I shaved my thick beard with a chainsaw, but no, alas it is a VIOLENT VIRUS that is keeping me home and within a half mile walk to my outhouse at all times.  The BUG KAHUNA stirkes. 

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

<span>– wakeup, wakeup, wakeup, you are late for work, you have not mowed the lawn and pool needs cleaning. You were screaming snow, snow, snow damit why will nobody believe there will be a storm on president’s day. You really should knock off the all night manwic bingeing - </span>

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

Hope you feel better! :)

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

Hope you feel better!

BioPat said...

Feel better soon, this virus is a nasty one; I had it last weekend.  You may need your strength to pull out your snowblower for a bit of work come Monday!

  I'm still trying to convince my husband OC trip for the weekend should be canned, don't want to leave snowblowing to the 20 year old - God knows who'll she bury in snow soince she only understands one speed.

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

Thanks BP, Morph.  A little snowstorm could do the trick.  I think this is more of a 48 hour deal from what I understand, so I hope to be good by Saturday.  I'm wondering where most of the old crew went, Julee, et. al?  It has been a threat free winter until now. There was a small window around december 15-20 that never materialized, but outside of that there has been little hope for PLOWABLE snow.  I had 8.75 from the October storm, but that was highly localized.  Living on a very high peak (1000ft) for this region has its advantage, but the rest of the valley world has ben nearly shutout.  Here is to a white weekend.

Rachel said...

Getting entirely too excited for the possible storm!!!  Hoping for a big one.  What are your thoughts Andy for us PA folk???

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

I would hold off on the excitement until we get much closer to the event.  The latest European run phases way too late and we only get scattered flurries.  This is a dynamic system with a lot of moving parts.  As you might remember the boxing day blizzard last season had many under winter storm warnings and nothing fell south of the Mason Dixon line.  We have to watch for continuing shifts in the models and overall evolution.  This could still be 12 plus or absolutely nothing.  :(

fredneck fredneck said...

Whatever.  The Footbrats haven't predeicted the weather forcast in over 2 years; a bunch of punks is what they are.

Mary in Hydes said...

Hi folks......have been having a heck of a time trying to log in.  Have no clue what I did differently this time, but I am in.  Had to see what Andy had to say.  Just wondering.....we inherited a snow blower, should we get it to our house for this one?

hocoKtchr said...

WHAT??? >:o

"why ya gotta be so mean?????" 

fredneck fredneck said...

Lighten up, Francis.