Wednesday, February 15, 2012

"There's something about you..."
Lyrics from 1985 single by UK band Level 42 (Music video)


11:35 PM EST 2/15/12 | Our latest scenarios for weekend storm potential in the East are posted in our Winter Stormcast Zone as linked in the tab above. There has been significant disparity among the major computer models, which is why we cannot nail down one specific scenario this early. 

In fact, the National Hurricane Center is dispatching a "Hurricane Hunter" reconnaissance aircraft into the early stages of this storm to gather additional data. With different pieces of energy in the atmosphere to closely interact, or "phase" to become one storm, it may be several days before adequate data from land-based observing stations and NWS weather balloon is available to begin narrowing the possibilities for the East coast.


8:15 PM EST  2/15/12  | With increasing potential for a winter weather event to affect a large part of the Mid-Atlantic late this weekend, the Winter Stormcast Team is holding a multi-state conference tonight at 9 PM EST. We plan to issue a statement before 11:00 PM. On-going updates on this potential will be posted in the Winter Stormcast Zone.


5:50 PM EST 2/15/12 | Today's fusion forecast headline is our way of directing your attention to an upper level surface feature in the Pacific that may hold promise for President's Weekend snow in the East. Got the gas-oil mix for the snowblower? Would be a good step just to be on the safe side.

The feature is seen on this "live linked" image of an enhanced NOAA Flash loop  of the Northeast Pacific. Look closely in the middle left next to the conveyor belt of moisture. Consider the scenario if these three factors align in the next few days...
  • The North Pacific feature rolls over the Canadian Rockies, heading southeast toward the U.S. Northern Plains;
  • This energy interacts with a weak system moving through the U.S. Rockies, and;
  • The sub-tropical jet, to fuel severe weather tomorrow, gets involved.
The most recent computer model runs, including this image from the 8 AM EST  NOAA Global Forecast System for Sunday morning suggests many along the Mid-Atlantic will at least see a lot of rain and wind. If the storm tracks another 50 miles offshore... well then... we would have something new to talk about, wouldn't we?


This lyric from Level 42 should give emergency managers, operations directors and event planners in the East reason to take another look at the potential. For this winter weather scenario, we  "can't disguise the truth, that there is something about you."  (The "you" being the possible event)

Meteorologist Justin Berk in Baltimore, MD has also posted details and analysis on his public facebook page today. You can monitor our updates in the Winter Stormcast Tab on this site, or in the Mid-Atlantic Facebook page.  

(Forecaster Foot, Meteorologist Berk, Forecasters Jason, Connor, Mike and Greg)


Fusion Forecasting & Education


This educationally-appropriate music video from the mid 1980's is an example of how we repurpose a lyric from a song, leverage the theme and "fuse" it with our forecast. 


For those in the educational system, believe it or not but teacher-discretion usage of Youtube as a teaching tool has finally made it to some public schools. The global video portal is also expanding their "Youtube for Schools" program. If you are a teacher in music, art, media or even science, there are variety of interesting twists you can get out of this video for class discussion. See below.



  • Music: Do students today watch music videos?  Why or why not?
  • Health: Why are none of the singers drinking, smoking, etc?
  • Media: What devices are "missing" in the song? 
  • Weather: What conditions do you notice in the song?
  • Art: Yeah, what's with the clown? Performers: Help us out here...
if your school system does not permit teacher-discretion usage of educationally appropriate Youtube videos, have them ask Baltimore County Schools in Maryland or Gwinnett County Schools in Georgia what prompted their decision, and how well it's working for them. 

Or you have your District Technology Specialist look over this slideshare.net show called "Social Media: A 21st Century Tool for Global Connections." (careful: There is a Youtube video in there, too. ;-)

15 comments:

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Saturday NightOvercast with a chance of rain in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and a chance of rain. Low of 28F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70%. Snow accumulations of 4 in. possible.<img></img>SundayOvercast with a chance of snow and a chance of rain. High of 41F. Winds from the North at 5-10 mph. Chance of snow 60%.Saturday NightOvercast with a chance of rain in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and a chance of rain. Low of 28F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70%. Snow accumulations of 4 in. possible.<img></img>SundayOvercast with a chance of snow and a chance of rain. High of 41F. Winds from the North at 5-10 mph. Chance of snow 60%.

This is something new and I have not seen something like this this far out.  National weather service already posting 4 inch accumulations for Saturday night. Guess they ae going pretty bullish this far out to advise the public.   

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALT/WASH

"Ingredients for significant snowfall are there...it is simply a
waiting game for the models to deliver consistency and thus
confidence. Timing for any potential system remains Saturday night
into Sunday. Continued low chance probability of precipitation from balt-wash and south
with a rain/snow mix through this time. "

8-)

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

NWS BALT WASH
A high degree of
uncertainty continues since model solutions are divergent with
exactly how much northern stream energy interacts with the southern
stream. <span>Despite the divergent solution in the deterministic
runs...the GFS ensemble has converged toward a solution that shows a
stronger low tracking further north
</span>. Will continue with the chance
for rain/snow during this time...but uncertainty remains
high.
:)

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

The possibility is starting to be broadcasted...

Saturday Night    Overcast with a chance of rain, then a chance of snow and a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 30F. Winds from the NNE at 10-25 mph. Chance of precipitation 70%. Snow accumulations of 6 in. possible.

Andy you should ahve taken me up on that bet. ;)
Come on Bug Kahuna!

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

should have included referance:
forcast for Mitchellville, MD from wunderground

and typo above: have not ahve

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

I have no money left to gamble.  After buying flowers, lotions, cards, etc for Valentine's day for my wife and girlfriends, the bank account is depleted.  :'(   Luckily, I found some change under my couch and paid my internet service bill, so at least I can continue to follow the storm with you fine folks at Foot's Forecast :)

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

=-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O HINTERLANDS FORECAST PAID FOR BY YOUR TAX DOLLARS

Saturday Night Overcast with a chance of snow and rain showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain showers. Low of 27F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of snow 70% with accumulations up to 9 in. possible.
(I don't know how these forecasts are generated but it is clearly a new feature for the NWS to put out numbers this high this early for a storm not nailed down)

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

=-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O =-O

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

It's like a mortuary in here.  The lousy winter must have killed off the powderhouds. :'(

ravensbbr said...

Just...in shock, is all. That, and I can't get to FF @ work. :)

BRING ON THE BUG KAHUNA!!! (For those of us in the hinterlands, I mean, :-P )

BioPat said...

8-) 8-) 8-) , Lovin' it!!!

BioPat said...

Still waiting for the 72 hour time frame to solidify (maybe) the weekend's potential for snow.  It's been so long coming, I'm afraid to believe it may come true; I feel like a kid the night before my birthday!  :)

ravensbbr said...

Anyone else thinking it needs to track a little more east and south to hit us? Looks like north central PA might get the good stuff as of now...

ravensbbr said...

OK, just saw the latest GFS run, trending more ESE and looking better, a little more E/SE and we're good, but not too much...thoughts?

BioPat said...

we still need to get inside the 72 hour mark to see what the potential will be.