Saturday, February 18, 2012

Sunday snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic 

9:00 PM EST 2/18/12 Good evening! Our team still expects a significant winter storm to impact much of the Mid Atlantic during the day Sunday, with the highest impact late Sunday afternoon and evening for most areas. Our snowfall forecasts are preliminary, and may be adjusted as we get closer to this event. For details on the projected amounts and impacts for your area, please visit our Winter Stormcast Page on the Foot's Forecast Website.

                "This storm means business."
-Meteorologist Shundra Stewart, Central Mississippi

1:00 PM EST 2/18/12 
Meteorologist Shundra Stewart of our Foot's Forecast | Central Mississippi zone said this morning what many on our team have been thinking since last night. 

A 3000-mile plume of tropical moisture from the East Pacific is hard to ignore. Forecaster Connor of our Central Maryland team noted that several computer models have begun the interesting shift back north in the eventual storm path Sunday into Monday. 

(Meteorologist Shundra Stewart) Rain, rain and more rain. That's one part of the story for today. We also have tornado watches along the gulf coast states. Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coast counties are currently under a Tornado Watch until 3:00pm ahead of that warm front. A new Tornado Watch was just issued for southern gulf coast counties of Alabama and western part of the Panhandle of Florida until 5:00pm. A low pressure system on the border of TX and Mexico that's going to push north northeastern bring rain to Texas and Louisiana while a warm front is pushing northern bringing severe weather to parts of Louisiana and Mississippi coast counties. Please visit our Southeast Team Forecast page in Facebook for local and regional updates from our seven-state team.

Please visit the Winter Stormcast Page for the latest analyses on why we believe the current storm in the Southeast is already trending farther north, as evidenced by the radar below among other indicators. 

Need another tidbit? Take a look this fun quote from the Winter Storm Watch statement from the Blacksburg VA National Weather Service. This should give pause to astute readers, meteorologists and scientists out there ... "


Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

I read some cooments on Justin Berks facebook page about pretreating roads.  In this case I do not believe it is a wate of money.  Pretreating the roads in this case is a very good idea in my opinion.  There will be little snow but what does fall will melt on contact and wet the roads.  During the evening hours any untreated surface will turn to black ice.  We all know what just a little black ice can do on an untreated road.  Think back to the snow squalls that hit parts of our area in January.  A half inch of melted snow on warm roads turned them into instant skating rings once temps to a quck dive..  In this case the warm roads and colder air coming in, argue for a flash freeze after dark.  Anything that does fall will not be plowable, but stands to generate black ice. 

BioPat said...

I also beleive it is wise to pretreat the roads; MD drivers can't drive when it rains, it's a disaster when we get snow!  Last week they also pre-treated roads for the minimal snow that fell in some areas, and you know I didn't hear about any accidents due to slick road surfaces.  As tight as budgets are why not pre-treat we haven't had to plow or salt the surfaces so keep the drivers safe.

Mary Davis said...

Hi Folks...I was one of those folks talking about pretreating the roads.  It didn't sound like we were getting any snow at all.  Are you saying that we will see some?  I am northern balto. co. and did not think we would see anything above DC.  What am I missing?  You must have a facebook now if you can see the posts on Justin's page Andy.  But I can tell you they treated the roads out here in a weird way.  Not all of them were treated.  There are some that I thought should have been treated.  Ones I travel frequently and I know how bad they can get.  So based on what you both are saying...will it get cold enough to freeze tomorrow night.  We have plans out with some older folks and I really should think about this.  Thanks for any info.

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

Mary, you are right, nothing at all will fall north of DC. In fact little may fall north of Richmond with the new data!  I actually agree with the decision to pretreat roads with a forecast of an inch or less of snow or heavy snowshowers when the temps are to start out warm and go below freezing FAST.  It is almost like a freezing rain event from a practical standpoint.  Snow hits 40 degree gorund, melts, puddles, then air temps drop into the mid 20s with a wet surface and you have instant black ice.

I think the State probably jumped the gun a little with this one.  If the forecast as of 6:00am showed a high possibility of wet roads flash freezing after dark becasue of light snow, evidencing a black ice threat, then go for it.   

This storm continues to trend WAY WAY south and there will be no accumulating snow in the State of MD and even a good part of VA.   

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

As Mary pointed out above, I never felt that snow would make it this far north but that is just me (some guy who lives in the woods and follows forecast models like scripture as if he were a condemed death row inmate who turned to religion prior to the execution of sentence!) 

Credible Mets and forecasts had at least snowshowers of 1/2 inch to the MD line.  The State relied on those forecasts and acted in a very preemptive manner in light of the forecasts.  So if I were a State highway person and I felt there was a black ice threat I would pretreat.  I will tell you if my name were on the door, I would have held off until 12 hours before the event when the forecast was still up in the air.  The State jumped about 24 hours early, and the propriety of them not holding off until at least the am hours to see where the NEW forecast sttood is debatable.  So if Martin is interested in saving money, and there happens to be an opening at MEMA, or for head of the MD State Highway Admin., my resume is ready to be mailed, as I am more than happy to save taxpayers a few dollars  :) while protecting public safety in a prudent preemptive manner ;) !  Always a balanacing test! :-$

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

I have used facebook, but have to keep my info very private!  I have NO CHOICE in that decision.  To that end I read only and cannot comment.  :'(   Mr. Foot and I have communicated and he understands the reasons why I am REQUIRED not to have a public profile.  Nevertheless, a powderhound will always be a part of the powderhound fraternity and will find a fair way to communicate and share his thoughts with the greater powderhound world ;)  

JULIE said...

I am not meaning to pry Andy, but have you considered opening a fbook for just weather related posts? Like Manwich Powederhound and your profile pic a volcano? Just sayin' :-P

elainalee Davis said...

Andy, how will this lack of snow effect us this summer?  Is this summer supposed to be dry or wet?

Mary Davis said...

Thanks.  I do think it is a waste of money if we will not see any precip at all.  Based on how things were moving and what has been written, it threw me for a loop when I saw pretreated roads.  I know what the roads can get like.  I have seen flash freeze and pretreating is great.  I just thought that they may have known something we didn't.

Mary Davis said...

No need to expalin.  Everyone has their reasons for everything.  It is pretty cool that you can read what is said even if you can't comment.  You did get your point accross  in here and I read it.  But you also get to read what several idiots write.  Sometimes blows my mind the things people say about the weather.

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

In terms of water we are in a huge surplus.  We have had little snow but we have had rain.  I have not checked the stats for Jan and Feb at BWI, but it has been  wet enoguh for this time of year.  We had a massive excess or rain last year, so we are well above our average in terms of rain.  Unlike the mountan west we do not depend on snowmelt for our water supply.  We do not have arrid valleys etc that need the melt.  We are soaked and more than fine going into the Spring which is our rainy season. 

No one can predict what the summer will bring.  Long range mets venture to guess and issue forecasts based on teleconnections, but even the best of the best are more or less right 50% of the ime.  It really is a guessing game.

If I had to guess, I would speculate that we will have a very chilly/wet Spring relative to average (Nina Climatology), and a summer that is cooler than last year.    

Andy, Southern York County, PA said...

Maybe.  No need to go out on my own though.  Mr. Foot's website does an incredbile job putting together a forecast and backs up its assertions with data, and sound reasoning, much like what Justin Berk does.  Are they always right?  NO!  No one is when it comes to the weather.  All you can do is lay out the various scenarios and as the event gets closer begin to discount certain outcomes and favor others. 

This is why I like looking at the long range and chasing a storm.  I knew a storm was coming last week and wanted to follow the track to the bitter end.  By examining the data you identify the threat, track the threat, identify the trends, isolate the end result.  What that does from a practical standpoint is provide a no surprise scenario.

elainalee Davis said...

Thank you!

Jason Mitchell said...

Hey Andy, I've got about one half inch thus far in Southern MD and it's still coming down. ;)