Thursday, February 23, 2012

A tricky Thursday

Storm Prediction Center outlook for today shows risk of strong storms
rom the Ohio & Tennessee Valleys to the Southeast and the East Coast.  

5:25 AM CST 2/22/12 (Forecaster Kelton Halbert) The Storm Prediction Center has centered a vast majority of the Southeast within a severe weather risk for Thursday evening. 
  • Event type: This appears to be a squall line event beginning in Tennessee, working its way through Mississippi/Alabama late evening into the overnight hours. 
  • Main risks: The main risk appears for damaging straight line winds and hail, although a few isolated tornadoes are not out of the question. 
  • Probabilities: The chances go up for tornado potential with any storms that initiate ahead of the main line. However, low level shear is questionable in some areas. More about the tornado potential will not be known until Thursday morning.

ANALYSIS Uncertainty and variability exists in the forecast; the track of the surface low and cloud cover are all issues that could limit severe, specifically tornado, potential. Weather models are having difficulty resolving issues with an upper level Low off of the west coast of Mexico. Regardless, a damaging wind event appears possible tomorrow evening in Tennessee progressing into the late evening hours.

A detailed blog post on additional scientific analysis has been compiled in our Affiliate page, Tempest Chasing, operated by Forecaster Kelton.  Another update will be posted following a team chat and atmospheric dynamics for this event become more clear


juleew said...

I repeat.

Worst Winter Everrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

NeedaSnowday said...

Agreed....  Bring on Spring!