Sunday, March 4, 2012

"Just another manic Monday..."
- The Bangles


3:45 PM EST 3/4/12 (Forecasters Foot and Jason M.) The weirdest winter in memory just keeping weirder. Winter Weather Advisories are now posted for eastern Tennessee, eastern Kentucky and into West Virginia/Central Virginia. Some of these areas just experienced EF-3 tornadoes and have only barely begun to clean up. Earlier today, Meteorologist Justin Berk observed that many towns in the Ohio Valley, such as devastated Henryville, Indiana, will have seen severe weather, tornado damage followed by and now snow, in one week. For weather-weary residents of those states, tomorrow looks to be an unpleasant manic Monday.


OUR LATEST ANALYSIS    
A clipper-type system diving southeast from the Upper Plains is likely to bring  accumulating snow to the southern Appalachians into Virginia by Monday. The system can be observed on the current Water Vapor loop as a small dark area in the Plains states moving southeast. 


  • This will not be a significant snowstorm and should not cause any major disruptions to the region.
  • The best chance for any accumulation will be in central and south central Virginia (NWS snow graphic). 1 to 3 inches is possible in these areas as noted in the Winter Weather advisories.
  • A light dusting is also possible as far north as a line from Washington to Annapolis. A rain/snow mix is possible along the Maryland/Delaware eastern shore. Visit our Bayshore and Capital Region sites on Facebook for local details for weather in these areas.
  • Uncertainty remains with regard to the exact track of the system. That will make the difference between readers reporting flurries as far north as the MD/PA line or flurries remaining across Southern MD, with the more notable accumulations in central Virginia to eastern Kentucky. 
(Forecaster Jason M., Advisors Berk, Foot and the Winter Stormcast Team)


POSTED AT 7:50 AM TODAY: This internal report from our Winter Stormcast Team shows the on-going variability in our pattern this season shows no sign of stopping:
"Some of the newest model guidance is showing a minor snow event for portions of the Mid Atlantic Monday. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is further northward than the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and has snow as far the leading shield of precip up to the MD/PA line. Verbatim both models show this being the biggest snow event of the season for different portions of the affected areas [noted here]."  - Forecaster Jason M., Winter Stormcast Team
Compared to this early morning analysis by NOAA winter weather meteorologists:
MANY OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS (INCLUDING SREF MEAN) BRING A RATHER ELONGATED SWATH OF QUARTER INCH-PLUS LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL /SOUTHERN  VIRGINIA." 
The Surface Low Track map below shows the likely progress of this clipper as it charges east the next 24-36 hours. You can follow our team's regional reports posted later today in the Winter Stormcast | Mid-Atlantic Zone on Facebook, as well as in local zones for the affected areas, including Central Virginia and the Virginia Tidewater. To sum it up, or some, tomorrow may be "just another manic Monday" in this long winter of extremes.
 


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