Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Tropical Team ends 2nd season 
in a row with"100%" verification 

5/1/2012 | Atlanta, GA: The 2011 Tropical Cyclone Season in the Atlantic Basin, which ended November 30, produced a total of 19 tropical storms, seven of which became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. The Foot's Forecast Tropical Team was successful for the second year in a row with an accurate prediction in one of three key areas of tropical cyclone frequency, as explained below.

How we scored 100% 
On May 22, 2011, the multi-state Tropical Team of Foot's Forecast, led by Daniel Ross, a graduate research assistant in Meteorology at Georgia Tech, posted these predictions for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin. In parenthesis are the actual totals as reported by NOAA, and the relative accuracy of the team forecast gauged by a departure from actual.
  • 15 Named systems (actual 19)  = 79%
  • 7 Hurricanes (actual 7) = 100%
  • 4 Major Hurricanes (actual 3) = `75%
Public accountability of this prediction can be found as posted on the Tropical Zone facebook page (facebook link).

WHY was 2011 our "second year in a row" ? 
Take a look at the Tropical Team's forecast verification for the 2010 season, issued on November 30, 2010 in this archive link on our main site, and as shown on this link to the original graphic created by Baltimore's WJZ CBS-13 news. The team predicted 19 named storms for 2010, which also verified 100%. 

Resources, Links and Backgrounder Information
    Active 2011 hurricane season breaks 'Hurricane Amnesia' 
    Hurricane Irene made landfall at approximately 7:30 am EDT on Aug. 28, 2011, near Cape Lookout, NC with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (Category 1).  This NOAA GOES-13 satellite images captured Irene’s landfall moment. 

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