Sunday, August 26, 2012

It's Not A Drill


7:30 AM EDT 8/27 (Tropical Team) A regional roundup from our Forecasters and Meteorologists across the Florida Team: 

Meteorologist Megan Hodge from the Florida PanhandleThe path of Tropical Storm Isaac path remains uncertain and hurricane conditions could directly impact areas ranging from the western Louisiana coast to Pensacola, Florida. Local impacts are expected to begin Monday evening. 

  • Prepare for 7 to 10 inches of rain in the eastern half of the Panhandle and 10 to 14 inches in the western portion. 
  • Storm surge in coastal areas will also be a major concern...4 to 7 foot seas for most of the Gulf Coast, with the exception of the St. Mark's region where seas could reach between 5 and 8 feet.
Forecaster Matt Bolton of the Central Florida TeamIsaac has cleared the Keys, and is on his way into the Gulf of Mexico. Despite Isaac moving away from our coasts tomorrow, we're still expecting to see rain and gusty winds across the area. Localized flooding is also a big concern. We could also see a few isolated tornadoes through the early to mid morning hours.  Graphic by Forecaster Josh Owens of Maryland Weather Center.

Meteorologist Randall J. of the South Florida Team: Tropical Storm Isaac remains such, and has not yet strengthened to a Hurricane. Therefore, the Hurricane Warnings that were posted across South Florida & The Keys earlier have been discontinued. 

  • TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS remain up for all areas however. The tornado watch that was up has been discontinued as well. 
  • As Isaac continues to skirt past Key West, rain bands will continue to impact the Everglades and Naples. Miami and the Upper Keys are now getting into a weaker part of Isaac with less rain fall. Gusty winds 20-30 mph will continue though.

WIND GUST REPORTS: Some of the reported wind gusts so from the storm's passage. A far cry from the significant impacts of Katrina seven years ago and obviously a world different than Andrew twenty years previously.
  • Key West 70 mph, Virginia Key 66 mph, Port Everglades 64 mph
  • Boot Key 59 mph, Key Biscayne 58 mph, NWS Miami 60 mph,
  • Pompano Beach 60 mph, Fort Lauderdale 47 mph, Homestead 44 mph

Keep updated with Isaac on Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone as it continues its move into the Gulf.

Hurricane Warnings 

5:10 PM EDT 8/26 (Forecaster Jason I. ) Tropical Storm Isaac has still not strengthened and currently has maximum sustained winds of 60 MPH. The system is still moving to the WNW at 16 MPH and the central pressure is 992 MB. Following the projected path, Isaac should move away from the Florida Keys tonight and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. 

  • A HURRICANE WARNING has been issu
    ed from east of Morgan City, Louisiana to Destin, Florida. This includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
  • All HURRICANE WARNINGS for the state of Florida have been changed to TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. All residents along the Northern Gulf Coast should be monitoring Tropical Storm Isaac as it continues to head in that direction.

Projected Storm Surge Risks For Florida & Northern Gulf

2:05 PM EDT 8/26 (Forecaster Nikki) Isaac has not strengthened since the last update. As of the 2 PM Public Advisory, Winds are 60 mph with a minimum central pressure of 994 mb. Isaac is currently about 50 miles SSE of Key West Florida and about 75 miles NE of Havana Cuba. The present movement is WNW at 18mph, with a WNW to NW motion expected within the next 48 hours, with additional strengthening expected. 

  • The center of Isaac is forecast to move near or over the lower Florida Keys later today into tonight, and move into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday. 
  • Residents in the Cuba, Florida and the Northern Gulf Coast should continue watching the progress of Isaac closely and consider preliminary preparations in the event that warnings are posted for your area.

The Florida Keys, including The Dry Tortugas
The West Coast of Florida From Bonita Beach Southward to Ocean Reef
Florida Bay

East of Morgan City Louisiana to Indian Pass Florida, including Metropolitan New Orleans
Lake Pontchartrain

The Cuban Province of Villa Clara
The Northwestern Bahamas
The Florida East Coast from Sebastian Inlet Southward to Ocean Reef
Lake Okeechobee
The Florida West Coast and The Florida Panhandle from North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.


The Cuban Provinces of Matanzas and Cienfuegos
The Florida East Coast North of Sebastian Inlet to Flagler Beach.

Is New Orleans Now At Risk?

7:18 AM EDT 8/26 (Forecaster Foot) According to the 5 AM NHC #Isaac advisory, Metropolitan New Orleans is NOT in current Hurricane Watch area, although the projected path has shifted toward the north-central Gulf. At last report, Isaac now has winds of 65 mph and is moving NW at 17 mph. 

Upper level steering currents, as shown on this image from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) shows a 45 knot west to east steering current in the Florida straits may be partially responsible for the continuing westerly shift of the track. Below is a graphical overview of the wind field, watches and warnings:

A HURRICANE WARNING remains in effect for coastal South Florida from Bonita Beach to Ocean Reef and Andros Islands in the Bahamas. 

A HURRICANE WATCH is now in effect from Indian Pass in the Florida Panhandle westward across northern Gulf to mouth of the Mississippi River. Metropolitan New Orleans is not in the Hurricane Watch. Hurricane conditions are possible in these areas as early as Tuesday night. Hurricane Watches are also in effect for the Florida East Coast from Golden Beach southward to Ocean Reef. 




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