Friday, August 24, 2012

Going Into The Zone

NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft on an earlier expedition
as cited in this 2006 article "Fifty Years of  NOAA Hurricane Research"
OUR SOUTHEAST TEAM IS GEARING UP FOR A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT SITUATION ACROSS FLORIDA NEXT WEEK. OUR FORECASTERS WILL BE REPORTING FROM THESE LOCAL ZONES: 

 
We invite you to spread the word to those you know in the region that following our local team in their are provides readers with a wide-angle view of the storm from the perspective of forecaster being directly impacted by the storm. 

12:00 PM 8/24/12 (Meteorologist Randall J.) Tropical Storm Isaac is up to 60 mph winds with a minimum pressure of 1000 mb, moving WNW at 14 mph. What we know:
  • Deep convection is still trying to wrap around the center.  With most of the thunderstorm activity on it's southern half, this is good news for the island of Hispaniola, including Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 
  • This development may mean less rainfall impact to the island and less risk of mud
    slides. However at the same time, the mountains in Haiti will act like a sponge and work to "remove" as much as rain as possible from Isaac due to orographic lifting. 
ABOUT THE TRACK

  • The track continues to have Isaac enter the Eastern Gulf passing nearby Key West, if not directly over, then up towards the Florida Panhandle. 
  • All eyes from New Orleans to the Keys need to keep an eye on Isaac! 

Tampa? Too Early To Tell...



This compilation of the latest hurricane model forecast tracks provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Shows that the Florida Panhandle to New Orleans may face a greater risk of impact from Isaac than Tampa. But it's still too early to tell.


8:00 AM EDT 8/24/12 (Advisors Forrest & Foot) The morning update from our Tropical Team reported that as of the current NHC advisoryTropical Storm Isaac is a little stronger, as reported by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft. With maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH and a central pressure of 1000 mb, Isaac remains organizationally challenged, but a bit stronger. The 8 AM NHC update locates Isaac at 16.0N, 70.3 W, 175 miles SSW of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, headed W at 15 MPH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS
  • A Hurricane Watch is posted for Haiti.
  • A Tropical Storm Warning is posted for Dominican Republic, Haiti, portions of Cuba, Southeastern Bahamas, the Ragged Islands, Turks and Caicos Islands
  • A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of Cuba, Andros Islands and Central Bahamas, San Salvador and Jamaica
PROJECTED PATH OF ISAAC

A turn the the WNW is expected today and NW tonight. Isaac is forecast to come near or over Hispanola and over SE Cuba on Saturday. The effect of Isaac on Hispanola include 8-12 inches of rain, with up to 20 inches possible, with flooding and mud slides.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS

Tropical Depression Joyce is located at 16.9 N, 45.0 W, with winds of 35 MPH, moving to the NW at 14 MPH and a central pressure of 1008 mb, posing no threat to land at this time.

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