Monday, October 29, 2012

OUR HURRICANE SANDY REPORT ARCHIVE

POST-STORM ANALYSES AND REPORTS


A FAILED LESSON IN SCIENCE: Had the New York City government shown they fully understood the dangers of storm surge, evacuations would have started days in advance of Sandy's arrival, once it became clear the Mid-Atlantic faced no escape. Instead, an over-focus on minute changes in storm track lulled politicians into a false sense of security, delaying evacuations and costing lives that could have been saved by heeding the long-planned recommendations of engineers, and better short term weather intelligence. Now we face a potentially long term humanitarian crisis the likes of which we have not seen since Katrina.  


WHAT WE SAID, AND WHEN, ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY


7:35 AM EDT 10/30 MID-ATLANTIC TEAM STATEMENT

LATEST OBSERVATION and PROJECTIONS
 
  • Technically speaking, Sandy is no longer a tropical cyclone, because it has transitioned to a more winter-time storm. 
  • However, the impacts will be identical as if it was still a Hurricane, because of the massive size, strong winds, and heavy downpours. 
  • Winds are still gusting to tropical storm force well away from the center. 
WIND-FIELD: Even though the storm is no longer scientifically speaking, a hurricane, you can see based on the graphic below that there is still a large area tropical storm force winds with gust of 40 mph+ along the Atlantic Coast and in New England.

RAINFALL: The storm center came ashore last night in New Jersey, but the rainfall is still going strong, especially in the SW quadrant of the storm. Many places have already seen a month's worth of rain, and more is on the way. Please visit this link for the latest radar image - http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast.php. Stay safe everyone. 


Working The Storm With You

influence Sandy is having on wind in the Eastern U.S.  

As our team continues with analysis and preparation for the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, we want to streamline your access to our latest information on this resource page. Specific information on:






  • Connecting to all our Mid-Atlantic Zones in Facebook
  • Quick access to official NOAA & NHC storm information
  • Direct links to State Emergency Management
  • Safety and preparedness checklists / Twitter links
    NWS Radar: Southeast | Northeast Midwest

    OFFICIAL STATEMENTS & NOAA LINKS






    Visit Swellinfo.com for free local Surf Forecasts

    Surf Reports, Surf/Swell timelines and more.


    Key for Watches and Warnings 
    at NWS Eastern Regional HQ Website


    Current Wave Heights



    FOOT'S FORECAST SOCIAL MEDIA RESOURCES
    Tropical Zone | Our Tropical Twitter | @footsmdwx

    LOCAL TEAMS: SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC 

    LOCAL TEAMS: NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC 



    73 comments:

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    Finished digging storm shelter 20 feet underground. Checked latest wind forecast data, then dug another 20 feet! This is no joke and I would not be surprised to see some 80-85 mph gusts around the metro area as the center of the storm looks to make its way over southern pa and northern MD. The weather channel has been doing a decent job in laying out this storm. A this point there is little more to add other then prepare for a long duration wind event, with 6-10 inches of rain, and where bands set up someone in our area could finish with 12-15 inches of rain. Do not downplay this in any way shape or form. Just stock up, sit back, and watch the fireworks. Be safe!

    Amy said...

    New Jersey seems to think that they are where the storm is making landfall, not Delaware. Granted I get that they're close, but I hate how the national news outlets seem to ignore the little guys down here in MD and PA.

    Also, Baltimore Fox station had Monday and Tuesday labeled "windy" with the best chance of precipitation as those two days. Umm, duh!

    Julee said...

    ANDREW, I actually BOUGHT Manwich yesterday, thanks to you. Got home and realized I have no ground beef to go with it. Just have to drink it like a cocktail.
    The Derecho had 60 mph winds and that was enough for ME, so am really hoping we don't see 85. After the Derecho, EVERY road in every direction throughout my neighborhood had at least two downed trees. Some of the trees had the tops TWISTED off. I NOT looking forward to this.

    needasnowday said...

    My hubby & I just finished assembling the generator.... got stocked up on enough food for several days. Fire wood ready in case... and the Kindle charged up!

    I have a lil staging area with flashlights, batteries, and a Bible! OH MAN THIS IS TOO MUCH!
    I like my SNOW days off, not this!

    Dorchester & Kent CO schools closed. Let's see how the new superintendents in Balt Co & Howeird Co do!

    Stay safe my friends...
    ~Needy

    needasnowday said...

    http://obxwebcams.com/

    http://www.avalonpier.com/wavecam.html

    Ocean is angry!

    Julee said...

    Needy!
    I have an "area" too! Flashlights, batteries and every size and fragrance of candle known to man.
    And I agree ... give me a SNOW day any time over this. At least with snow you have an idea how things will pan out. TOOOOOO much uncertainty with this behemoth.

    needasnowday said...

    HoCo closed Monday!!

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    I'm ready to rock. Julee, I have plenty of frozen ground beef, but that is for me and I will not share. There are however many cows around here, so if you come up we could load you up with the freshest meat possible. I must warn you that if you want meat we will have to kill one with our bare hands and drag it out of the pasture, as hand grenade or machine gun slaughter makes too much noise and attracts the attention of unwanted authorities.

    Needy, everything will be closed and the media will be in panic mode by 11:00 pm tonight. That is just how they operate.

    needasnowday said...

    Julee, If you wait, perhaps a cow may fly by in winds.. have a lasso at the ready!

    Andy... they waited to long to prepare the pubic... whats new!

    Julee said...

    A COW fly-by!
    HOLY CATS!
    NOW I need ROPE!!!! Home Depot, here I come!
    I will NEVER be ready for this hurricane!

    Julee said...

    Needy,

    Loving your Freudian slip!

    Amy said...

    I can't believe HoCo is the first to announce. This never happens! I can actually get a good night's sleep not wondering if it's worth leaving the house for work only to turn back around when the announcement is made at 5:40am.

    needasnowday said...

    AVOID HOME DEPOT!! LOL... friend was there in line since 5:30am to get a generator...

    GAH..on slip.. I must inhaled too much gas while testing out my new toy... vroom vroommm!!

    needasnowday said...

    Amy... New Superintendent... GOOD CALL FOOSE!! Now, think about doing same for TUES.... one teacher I know was claiming a return after election day!! EGADS!

    needasnowday said...

    Balt Co, Balt City and FredCo closed.. FredCo also closed Tues..

    Amy said...

    Needsasnowday- I work at Atholton High school which was the only HoCo school to be out 4 days with hurricane Irene due to electricity. I can foresee the same thing happening.

    BioPat said...

    Hey all, I see I have missed much of the conversation while trying to grade tests and be prepared for a long period of being out of touch. School servers are being shut down at 9pm this evening so I wanted to be sure and answer all emails. We got the downspout fixed in a 10 minute period this morning thanks to my fancy Black and Decker saw, a purchase from 5 years ago that has been as good as Andy's manwich!
    Stay safe all!

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    BP, that grading test thing you mention brings back nightmares! I never actually received grades on my tests, it was more like "we need to talk" written in red ink where a grade would normally appear. I spent the flower of my youth in detention, but it paid off as I now can easily tolerate being snowed in, hurricaned in, and otherwise socked in for months without even flinching. School prepared me well for the real life!

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    Needy, I stand by my prior forecast. With snow its more complicated, localized, and nuanced. This storm is just a beast. 6-10 inches of rain, with someone in our area getting 12-15 out of this. I also believe wind gusts will hit the 85 mph mark or maybe greater if the heavy precip pulls them closer to the surface. This is just a wall of wind and water and we just need to hang tight and be safe.

    ravensbbr said...

    anyone else gonna go counter with me, and speculate that maybe the derecho already cleared the deadwood out, so to speak, and that maybe that'll actually help?

    Contrary opinions a speciality. :-)

    BioPat said...

    I missed the worst of the derecho having left for OC just hours before its arrival. However, my concern is what didn't come down then could be toppled in this storm. I'm concerned about a utility pole that sits at the corner of my backyard; about 4' ot it was unearthed due when a tree was uprooted in Irene. BG&E was notified, inspected but never backfilled. This storm could bring the whole thing down - YIKES!! So much for living on a hill that continues to erode.
    Andy, interesting that you should make those comments about your high school papers. Chances are you were the type of student bored to tears until you finally found your niche. You are the bright ones that in the right environment thrive and go back to your class reunions shocking your classmates that you're not wearing a shirt with numbers. I believe you regular posts may provide the data supporting that hypothesis.

    Amy said...

    Good morning all. Hope you've managed to stay dry so far. My husband works in Towson and has to drive over the Key bridge. Any thoughts on if the winds will get bad enough by evening traffic they'll close the bridge? I'm worried about him getting home regardless though.

    BioPat said...

    Good morning all! Woke up to heavy rain but wind does not appear to be significant yet. Once the wind does get stronger the ground will be so saturated I am sure a number of large trees will be uprooted.
    Among other things we did to get ready was fire up and run the generator that we purchased post-Irene, even had a relay switch installed; this may be its first real test!
    I have many things to do today which requires use of the pc, now well charged. I'm not sure how long we'll be online so stay safe all!
    Andy looks like you'll be smacked with this storm taking a direct impact from its overnight shift. Take care of you and family!

    ravensbbr said...

    Amy, just my thoughts, but I would see if there's any way he can sit this one out. Looks like conditions in Baltimore will deterorate rapidly from here out.

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    Bp, thanks! Looking at the prior Euro runs it does not surprise me that the eye will be over southern York County Pa, Harford, Cecil, and Baltimore County. It was well model as a possibility. This is just a nasty storm and everyone needs to stay off the road unless you are a first responder period. If I were essential I would have gone in by now and planned to sleep at work for the foreseeable future. It's starting to get ugly and this is the best weather we will see until Wednesday! Stay safe!

    Amy said...

    My husband got to work only to receive a text that they're closed. Better late than never. He's on his way home :-)

    NeedaSnowday said...

    She is moving faster! Hard to fathom what this will be like... steady rain here and lil more windy.

    Be safe all!

    ravensbbr said...

    Need, saw that as well, forward speed has picked up, 20MPH NNW.

    Good news, possibly outta here somewhat quicker.

    Bad news, if I'm correct, add the fwd speed to the circular wind speed as an aggregate...

    BioPat said...

    Amy, winds are already beginning to get stronger, but once the storm comes ashore later today we will be feeling the tropical force winds. I would expect them to close Key Bridge sometime after noon today if this info is helpful.

    NeedaSnowday said...

    Holy smoke.... look at this shot of OC.. got from another forum!
    http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=76363

    NeedaSnowday said...

    https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/530587_10151070740772703_1858599389_n.jpg

    OC fishing pier... still no confirmation that it is totally gone..

    ravensbbr said...

    need, that's the pier on the backside near fager's if I'm not mistaken

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    Gazebo at Fagers Island is underwater and water level rising fast. Checked track and the exact center of the storm is going to literally pass over my crib. Fun times ahead.

    BioPat said...

    Hello folks, ventured out for a quick jaunt for potatoes and my husband needed to get college letters of recommendation out into the mail. Their was a short lull when we ventured out but within 15 minutes winds and rain were heavy. It's the coldest 50 degrees I've ever felt.
    Just called my neighbor in OC and he and his wife are sitting this out in Selbyville with his cousin. I'm not sure that's the best plan but he said he's not moving. I'll keep checking on him. Saw photos of OC, looks pretty bad with storm still offshore and winds are up to 90 mph. While we were out husband HAD ro get his lottery tix, saw the price of gas had risen .07 since yesterday - and this is not price gouging??!!

    NeedaSnowday said...

    The gusts are picking up and I am not happy.... I just keep looking at the white birch tree that wants to rip the electrical wires from side of house.

    This is minor compared to what we are going to get!

    arghh!

    BioPat said...

    I keep looking at the leaves washing down the street, despite the warnings folks would not get out and rake so now people at the bottom of the street are going to need to keep the storm drains cleared or risk flooded roads and basements. I get soo frustrated with the folks who rent on this street who just could care less about others well being.

    Amy said...

    BioPat- I dropped dozens of letters of yesterday making sure there is not doubt that they'll be postmarked by Nov. 1. I have noticed a real uptick in rain and wind over the last 15-20 minutes. This is one of the few times I'm thrilled to have a water view in Pasadena instead of water front. I know the storm surge isn't supposed to be bad, but all the down hill rushing water will = soggy basements at least.

    NeedaSnowday said...

    Balt Co & HoCo closed on Tues

    BioPat said...

    Just saw that, with the storm picking up speed as it approaches shore, things may begin to get even more dicey.

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    I think the metro area will be shut down for this week. Even Wednesday will be windy so power restoration and debris clean-up will not begin in earnest until Thursday. The clean-up will take days so I really believe this week is shot.

    Julee said...

    Heard our leader Mr. Foot on Dan Rodricks just now. Good job (as always) Mr. Foot.
    Andrew ... nice use of the subjunctive.
    I live in a neighborhood designed by Fredrick Law Olmsted ... noted lover of parks and trees. Just watching these 200+ year old trees swaying all around the house makes me very nervous. Many oaks, noted owners of shallow root systems. Just a few feet from each side of the house. They made it through the Derecho, but that wasn't twenty hours in duration.
    This is going to be a lonnnnnnnnnng storm.

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    Julee, you are lucky I can even type. After digging a 40 foot storm cellar my arms are about to fall off! Too bad this is not snow as it would be 120 inches! NWS is now forecasting 8-12 inches of rain with higher isolated totals. The storm is getting much stronger and winds are pushing 100 as it hits the very warm pool of water. It's getting wicked out there! BE SAFE!

    Julee said...

    Andrew ...
    Twelve inches of rain at 100 mph? I'll be able to push those 200 year old oaks over mySELF!
    I wish it were snow as well ... but that's what I wish EVERY time it rains.
    YOU stay safe ... and funny.

    BioPat said...

    WOW!! Just took the dog out for a much needed walk; going down the hill not too bad, coming back up the hill was torture with wind driven cold rain in my face. BRRRRRRRR! And, this is just the beginning of the bad stuff! I think we may try to catheterize the dog - don't know if that's spelled correctly but you get the idea.

    ravensbbr said...

    Pressure now @28.99" here in NE CC. Wow.

    NeedaSnowday said...

    ::faint:: BP!

    We are coaxing our pup to use litter box.. ha.... she actually went out once today... may find a surprise in the dark! So far still have power, but getting anxious with winds increasing!

    :::note to self::: Julee is one tough broad - can lasso flying cow and push over 200 year old oak!

    Julee said...

    Needy --
    ... at the same time!

    ravensbbr said...

    gonna go with touchdown, Sandy has landed. Thoughts?

    ...and now remembering that I can't post a pic...anyway...check the radar, tell me what you think...

    Julee said...

    6:15 p.m. Flickering lights ... uh ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh

    NeedaSnowday said...

    Impressive Julee!!



    Ravensbbr, yes, if were Cam calling the plays with Joe behind center, Sandy would have stalled and fumbled out in to the Atlantic! Now, we gotta hope and pray the Defense meets our expectations.... ugh...

    NeedaSnowday said...

    I dont like the gusts... not one dayum bit!

    UNCLE! UNCLE!!!!!

    BioPat said...

    Two huge tress across the street have been swaying for some time. My husband and daughter took their cars off the street and moved into our shared driveway. One of the trees lost a major root a few years ago to fix a water main leak, it just can't be trusted. The lights have flickered a few times, I suspect we will lose power before this is over, at least dinner is almost cooked.
    How is everyone else fairing?? Haven't heard from Andy in awhile I'm wondering if he has lost power?

    NeedaSnowday said...

    http://mema.maryland.gov/Current/Pages/PowerOutagesZipCode3.aspx

    I am still with power... thankfully!

    ravensbbr said...

    need, please tell me you didn't have to check with MEMA online to see if you still had power. :-P
    kidding...

    Andy, you still with us, mon?

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    BP, still online. Have plenty of power and food. Alcohol situation is problematic so I ask all to keep me in your thoughts and prayers! It is nasty out, but we are located at 1000 ft elevation constructed into a south facing hill. We are somewhat sheltered from heavy wind here, but it is whipping overhead. I live in a thick forest so the trees that can handle the wind further break and minimize its impact.

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    It will be a very long night as the worst will be between 9:00 and 4:00 am. Everyone stay safe and hopefully we pull out of these unscathed.

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    Hope Julee is fairing well with those old oaks. I love trees, but come the Spring I will cut some more down. I have two gorgeous chestnut oaks and a tulip poplar close enough to the house to give me pause. They will go. It is not worth it. I had a 90 foot chestnut oak that in the span of 18 months went from perfect of trunk rot that weakened its structure. Needless to say it is now two cords of wood in my yard seasoning. A storm like this reminds me that trees and homes do not mix!

    BioPat said...

    Andy good to hear from you, sorry about the alcohol situation, it is times like these that tries a man's soul - or liver.
    Hope all is well with all,we got through dinner with three short power outages dinner by candle light could have been nice if not for the comments by the 21 year old. Debating whether to set up the generator now or simply wait until morning if needed. My gut is saying if it hasn't been needed yet then it can wait until morning if and when it becomes necessary.
    Currently I look like the resident geek (which I am at heart) with my head gear super light strapped on ready and waiting for the next power outage. Paint the picture any way you want in your mind - it all works!

    JMUkid said...

    Any idea how bad it might get in the Shenandoah Valley???

    NeedaSnowday said...

    Oh heck no Ravensbbr... I just called the fun BGE number to listen to the nice lady say my outage was reported!

    Fortunately, we went out for 5 minutes then our whole neighborhood looked like a rave as lights were strobing out of control!

    I am so thankful I have power and directv! During derecho event it was torture!

    ravensbbr said...
    This comment has been removed by the author.
    ravensbbr said...

    need, glad you and directv are OK, netflix is how we're coping here...

    JMU, depends on elevation, but my guess is some more rain, snow and wind for you all. Be safe...and go Flames! :-)sorry, have relatives that go to Liberty U...

    BioPat said...

    Couldn't sleep, husband snoring, wind howling, and then all the lights came on - go figure, thank goodness we don't have school today! Watching the early news and checking the damage across the area/ Hope everyone has weathered the storm well.

    needasnowday said...

    Up as the body thinks it is a work day.....lost power around 11:30 last night..... Grrrrr....will crank up the generator when it gets light out!

    Glad your power came back BP! Hope everyone else fares well!! The number of road closures are many... And I bet several not even reported yet. Still raining steady here too.....


    needasnowday said...

    Up as the body thinks it is a work day.....lost power around 11:30 last night..... Grrrrr....will crank up the generator when it gets light out!

    Glad your power came back BP! Hope everyone else fares well!! The number of road closures are many... And I bet several not even reported yet. Still raining steady here too.....


    Amy said...

    Don't know how we did not lose electricity. Trees appeared to be bending in half last night. Other than a lot of small tree debris there doesn't appear to be a lot that happened on my street. I'll check BGE web site to see how electricity faired in Columbia. Last hurricane took the school out for four days.

    needasnowday said...

    Amy, just listened to Ken Ulman on wbal...... Plan is to open schools tomorrow if possible... Unless schools have no power looks like they will try to open doors...... Test scores! :-)

    ravensbbr said...

    Morning, all. Glad to see power for most. Still sticking with theory that derecho brought down deadwood, literally, and mitigated damage. Of course, being on the left (better) side of this monster helped as well, but to hear the "experts" talk on TV, well, it's nice to run counter every now and then. :-P

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    Limbs and some trees down here, but never lost power. My lines are underground so it always helps. No trees down on my property though, so it worked out well considering the nasty wind. Finished with 5 inches of rain on the dot.

    BioPat said...

    Glad to see everyone seems to have fared well. Andy, how did it go? Watching news showing NYC devastation, just unbelievable,
    I know they want to get everyone back in school, particularly since it's the end of the quarter. I wonder how many students we will have even if we get back to school. I will continue with plan as usual as we are out on Friday for Faculty Retreat. Sunday is Open House so we have to get ready! My husband's department currently meeting in trailers due to re-construction of the building, I wonder how well they came through the storm??

    BioPat said...

    Just ventured out to get some miscellaneous stuff for school. Not too much traffic, lots of debris but didn't find large trees down in my short travels. Hopefully that will be the case through out most of the area.

    Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

    Actually rain total was 6.6 for the storm with drizzle still falling. Emptied the rain gauge a few times and did not total the first 1.5 and also had .1 from showers today. Did some limb clean-up and leaf blowing but other than that no news is good news! Hope everyone else fared well!

    needasnowday said...

    Goin' on hour 16 with no power...gen is humming outside and fire in fireplace...so.... Snowday opportunities in our future? They are much more fun to track and be immersed in rather than sandy-like events!!