Friday, October 26, 2012

"Is This Going To Hit Us?"
- The President, from the 1998 film Armageddon


to interact with the upper level trough and eastward moving cold front

WORKING THE STORM WITH YOU 
Rainfall Projections | Forecast Track | Model Projections



6:30 AM EDT 10/27/2012  TEAM STATEMENT  With computer model solutions starting to converge, we can start looking at more specific impacts. As of 5:00 AM EDT, Sandy is just below hurricane strength at 70 mph as it moves north-northeast at 10 mph. 
  • TIMING – For the coastal Mid-Atlantic, rainfall chances will start to increase through the day on Sunday as Sandy’s extreme outer influence arrives. Rainfall rates may become heavier Sunday night through the day on Monday and into Monday night. Winds are expected to start getting breezy late on Sunday, but read ahead for the details on the winds. 

  • TRACK & LANDFALL – Initially, Sandy is expected to be picked up by the westerlies and start a little NE. However, the blocking high in the north Atlantic will force Sandy to swing left back towards land. As far as landfall projections, we believe that the storm center will make landfall between the Delaware Bay and Long Island. With this storm though, the exact location of landfall is not as important because of the enormous size of the storm. 
  • WINDS – Because of the way this storm is expected to interact with the trough and the windflow out of the NW, the winds in the southwest quadrant of the storm may actually be amplified. As a result, we believe sustained winds reaching tropical storm force (>39 mph) is possible on Monday for a large area of the coast as shown in the graphic, with gusts possibly nearing or surpassing 50 mph. 
  • RAINFALL – With the slow movement and long duration of the storm, Sandy may be able to dump quite a bit of rain across the Mid-Atlantic. The best estimates now drop 6-12” of rainfall region-wide before the storm is completely finished. This may make for some significant flooding concerns in low lying areas, streams, and eventually the larger rivers. 
  • STORM SURGE – This is still the most uncertain area. Storm surge is often very difficult to predict, but our best estimate now is a surge of 2-3 feet on the west side of the Bay because of the full moon and the astronomical high tide. Taking a more northerly track would be beneficial in this area because the winds would be down and out of the Bay instead of coming up the Bay. 
  • TEMPERATURES – With the strong rush of cold air on the back side of this system, temperatures are expected to plummet. Sunday’s highs look to be around the upper 50s to 60º. Monday’s temperatures may not get out of the 50s, and on Tuesday, we could struggle to hit 50º. As far as snowfall talk goes, we do not expect any snow for the I-95 corridor. There is a very slight chance that non-accumulating snow falls as far east as Frederick County, MD and State College, PA but it will be mostly confined to the mountains. 

4:30 PM EDT 10/26  TEAM STATEMENT: While many focus on the center of circulation and the main wind speed in a tropical system, it is likely that due to the sheer size and potential additional expansion of Hurricane Sandy. that  winds hundreds of miles where Hurricane Sandy makes landfall will be easily reach tropical storm force strength. 



THE WIND FIELD: The Tropical Storm Force wind field, already over 275 miles from the center, may double in size in the next 24-48 hours. This expanding wind field is caused by the expected drop in central pressure, which reduces the storm's ability to maintain it's intensity. As the storm moves over relatively cooler sea surface temperatures in northern latitudes, additional increases in the wind field expansive will become apparent as Sandy transitions to a post-Tropical system. 

NEXT STATEMENT: Our next Team Statement for each affected state is expected at 10:00 PM EDT. Until then, you can access our local team reports from across the Mid-Atlantic as linked below.

ACCESSING OUR LATEST TEAM REPORTS

LOCAL TEAM UPDATES: SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ZONES
Cape Fear & Carolina Coast 
Virginia Tidewater | Central Virginia |  Northern Virginia
 Southern Maryland | Mid-Atlantic Surf & Sail

LOCAL TEAM UPDATES: NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ZONES
Bayshore | Central Maryland | Capital Region
Central NJ | Southeast PA | Central PA | Northeast PA 
Metro PittsburghMetro New York 


OVERVIEW OF SCENARIOS FROM OUR TROPICAL TEAM
Director Daniel Ross, Graduate Student in Meteorology, Georgia Tech


12:05 PM EDT 10/26 Our multi-state Tropical Team believes that Sandy will make landfall somewhere between Virginia Beach and Long Island the equivalent of a strong tropical storm or a low-end  Category 1 hurricane. The current advisory from the NHC brings a Category 1 hurricane onshore near the Delaware Bay by early Tuesday morning.

SCENARIOS: Our team has two scenarios that equally likely at this point as outlined below, However,, it is important to note that due to the storms increasing size, Sandy still has the potential for to produce hurricane force gusts over a large area. 
  • Scenario A: Mid-Atlantic Hit. The earliest impacts in the Mid-Atlantic would be felt Sunday with Sandy making landfall by Tuesday. Impacts would include high storm surges, lengthy power outages, and flooding. A long duration wind, rain and wave event lasting several days.
  • Scenario B: New Jersey to Long Island. Landfall later on Tuesday with coastal and inland impacts would include high storm surges, lengthy power outages, extreme coastal flooding, extensive beach erosion, inland flooding and significant tidal rises from the Delaware River to metro NYC and Long Island. A long duration wind, rain and wave event lasting several days.
How You Can Prepare Now


PREPAREDNESS & INFORMATION RESOURCES

LATEST UPDATES FROM STATE AGENCIES
DELAWARE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY

STATE OF EMERGENCY MESSAGES


2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I've been hearing about a "perfect storm" situation, where Sandy is going to be exacerbated by a storm from the West. Can you talk about that?

Foot's Forecast said...

Hi Shelly, why yes, that is discussed in our storm section: http://www.footsforecast.org/p/storm.html