Saturday, October 27, 2012

"Say It Isn't So..."
- Hall and Oates (lyrics + YouTube video)

A generalized overview of Sandy's rainfall potential 
from the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

8:00 AM EDT 10/27/2012  TEAM STATEMENT  With computer model solutions starting to converge, we can start looking at more specific impacts. As of the latest NHC advisory, Sandy has regained hurricane strength at 75 mph as it moves north-northeast at 10 mph.

  • INITIAL TIMING  – For the coastal Mid-Atlantic, winds will start to increase through the day on Sunday as Sandy’s extreme outer influences arrives. Rainfall rates should become heavier Sunday night through the day on Monday from the VA, MD and DE coast and into NJ. Inland winds and rain will significantly increase by late Monday into Tuesday, when the greatest impacts are expected for the entire Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  
  • TRACK & LANDFALL – Initially, Sandy is expected to be picked up by the westerlies and start a little NE. However, the blocking high in the north Atlantic will force Sandy to swing left back towards land. As far as landfall projections, we believe that the storm center will make landfall between the Delaware Bay and Long Island. With this storm though, the exact location of landfall is not as important because of the enormous size of the storm. 

  • WINDS – Because of how this storm is expected to interact with the trough and the windflow out of the NW, the winds in the southwest quadrant of the storm may actually be amplified. As a result, we believe sustained winds reaching tropical storm force (>39 mph) is possible by Monday afternoon for much of the Richmond to Washington and Baltimore metro areas, as shown in the graphic, with gusts possibly nearing or surpassing 50 mph well into Tuesday.

  • RAINFALL – With the slow movement and long duration of the storm, Sandy may be able to dump quite a bit of rain across the Mid-Atlantic. The best estimates now drop 6-12” of rainfall region-wide before the storm is completely finished. This may make for some significant flooding concerns in low lying areas, streams, and eventually the larger rivers. 

  • STORM SURGE – This is still the most uncertain area. Storm surge is often very difficult to predict, but our best estimate now is a surge of 2-3 feet on the west side of the Chesapeake Bay because of the full moon and the astronomical high tide, with surge estimates of 6 feet + for the Atlantic coastal areas. 

  • TEMPERATURES – With the strong rush of cold air on the back side of this system, temperatures are expected to plummet. Sunday’s highs look to be around the upper 50s to 60º. Monday’s temperatures may not get out of the 50s, and on Tuesday, we could struggle to hit 50º. 


Amy said...

Thanks for being on top of the weather as usual. I'm still seeing people of FB who are laughing at being prepared for the storm, like it's being blown out of proportion.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I am the man! Worked feverishly to prepare. Read and studied survivor manual from cover to cover. Took detailed notes and memorized key provisions. Now have a makeshift jail constructed in my basement to take looters into custody pursuant to citizens arrest. Shotgun and Ak-47 fully loaded, with crate of grenades that just arrived at the ready which I purchased on E-bay from a third world country, and arrived packaged discretely as glassware.

Militia and posse organized. Compromised of the toughest people I could find, many of which have military and combat experience. Chuck fought in the first world war, Bill survived a fall down 3 flights of steps after he slipped on a taco, and although he walks with a gimp, he has proven he can take a hit. Steve has cronic halitosis and everyone just runs away when he opens his mouth, so he will be on point guard duty.

Constructed desalinization plant to convert sea water to drinking water.

Just checked survival manual again and to dismay in small print it says how to survive a counter insurgency on an island republic.

Back to square one!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

This is a very serious storm. You must prepare to be out of power for weeks, yes weeks. If local utilities cannot restore your power after a thunderstorm like the Derecho strikes a limited area, what do you think will happen when a historic storm with unrivaled duration winds and rain will do to the grid.

No power means gas station pumps don't work, stores can't open, no shipments of food, blocked roads from debris etc. Also the scope of the storm and area of destruction so large, the government will have its resources stretched thin up and down the coast which means it will take much longer to recover.

This storm is not a joke and it is not an ordinary storm or hurricane. I would rather be wrong and have an extra 30 bags of cheetos, 30 crates of manwhich, then not have any food left 7 days from now and no place to buy it.

Prepare for the worst, because it is what is on the table.

Julee said...

I love you Andy !

Foot's Forecast said...

Mr. Foot here, lookey here, it's just like the bad old days all over again. What is this 2005 or something?

Julee said...

Back to the future?

Amy said...

Andy, you've been cracking me up since the blizzards of 2009-2010 winter. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Oh Lordy... Andy you slay me!

I bought a generator thinking I could fend off the storm.. Uhm, wow I think I might be glad I did!

Be nice to see the ole original Foots crew... kinda miss em!

Amy said...

You should have seen the line at Home Depot last night. People had numbers on their chest written on blue painter's tape. There were chairs set up for them and everything.

Anonymous said...

Glad I had advance notice Amy! I actually bought generator online and picked up the following morning --- no problems!

I may need to travel up north to get Manwich though....

Andy, what are your thoughts on this crazy historic monster?


Hi Everyone :) Julie Smittywa freaking out in AACO Balto here :) about to go be the only one in town with plywood windows.

BioPat said...

Hi all, just got online this evening after shopping and prepping for the storm. Phones and flashlights charged and plenty of water and more serious survival beverages on hand. Tomorrow one last item to complete with my husband to re-route a down spout to prevent flooding of basement.
This storm could hit this area like an Agnes. My concern is the problem with the leaves both on and off the trees. The ones on the trees will help bring the trees down in the wind the ones on the ground will block drains unless they have been cleared. Husband got home from OC house earlier today after securing outdoor furniture and plants.
So far as schools, since AA and Harford counties are already opening shelters in the schools beginning Sunday I don't see them re-opening until at least Wednesday. The damage this storm could do to the power grid could even delay the election - although I did my part standing in line for 2.5 hours today to cast my vote!
Stay safe all and post updates as long as we are able.

Anonymous said...

Hiya BP!!

Balt co schools closed on Monday... More to follow I am sure!

everyone needs to take this storm seriously!

Anonymous said...

Scratch that.... Was reporting baltco closing based on a tweet from justin berk....nonetheless, hard to fathom any school in the state opens its doors on Mondsy or Tuesday!

ravensbbr said...

NE CC checking in, pressure down to 29.7" already! check this for a good offshore view w/o the limits of shore-based doppler...

select wind speed from the drop-down menu second on the right...and scare the #)@*! out of yourself awhile.