"Better Get The Thermals"

- Forecaster Aaron Taggart, the London Zone

11:40 AM GMT 11/30 (British Isles Team) While our readers in the United States will soon be welcoming an early winter warmup, those in the UK are on a round trip ticket with the Polar Express. If you're in the M25 area of London or across the British Isles, we offer this update from Forecaster Aaron as posted last evening in our London zone:

Honoring The Global Rainbow

Image credit: A public art project by Yvette Mattern

A mosaic of lasers streamed across NYC in honor of those

who have suffered and lost in Hurricane Sandy.

10:45 AM EST 11/29 - Honoring the #GlobalRainbow (The U.S. Team) While the weather is calm today, we wanted to do our part in marking one month since the devastating impacts of Hurricane Sandy on New Jersey and New York. We know some are still a long way to recovery. We hope the NYC public art laser show is an inspiration to you. Our Metro New York Team in Facebook also did a special feature on it this morning.

Details on the public art project by Yvette Mattern in this article from the UK's Daily Mail. If you caught some imagery of the lasers in your neighborhood, and would like to share here on the page, please post in a message. We would welcome featuring your photography on our cover page from time to time. It's part of our "authentic approach" to local weather, and honoring those who have lost so much.

By the U.S. Team of Foot's Forecast

"I wish I had a river..."

- Joni Mitchell in the single River 

12:05 PM EST 11/28 (Long Range & Affiliate Teams)  For our western U.S. readers looking ahead for any clues in the long range, you might find yourself wishing for a river. Why? You're going to need one to handle the Pacific precipitation onslaught coming in the next 10 days. What does it mean for impacts to US weather? We will detail that in additional team-wide analyses from west to east, posted here as the day progresses.

NOAA Pacific Water Vapor Flash shows the approaching river

FROM THE WEST: Our Affiliate Forecaster Tanner P. from WeatherOn.net, being first at the gate with upcoming effects of the Pacific storm train, has posted this statement from his Long Range Blogger Charlie P:  

"Remember how I was talking about the downfall of the storm train? Well, it's going to ramp back up again. It won't be a high-speed Japanese bullet train; I'd consider it more of your typical Amtrak train. Northern California will get absolutely drenched with rain over the next week as an atmospheric river stalls over the area. After the 6-10 day time frame, models generally predict that the northwest will continue to stay warm and wet, and the southern part of the U.S. will be warmer and drier."

FROM THE EAST: Forecaster Mike Natoli in our Central Maryland team is seeing the early stages of a this hopeful warmup in the local forecast for that area, as posted at 10:45 AM this morning:

"It has certainly been a cool month of November across the region. As  compared to average temperatures, this will likely be the coolest period since January of 2011! However, pattern changes are on the horizon, and we could have some warmth coming in for the first week of December! 

FRIDAY & BEYOND – Under partly sunny skies, Friday’s highs will climb back to the upper 40s. Highs in the 50s will dominate through the weekend, but by early next week, we may have a shot at reaching 60º!"

"Some things gotta give now..."

- Lyrics from One Thing, by the UK Band One Direction

7:10 AM EST 11/27 (Forecaster Zach & The Metro New York Team) Welcoming One Direction to the United States! Who's pumped to see the singers perform headline at Madison Square Garden next week? Our local team sure is excited for this latest "British invasion!" We have epic schedule of fusion forecasts planned for the band's US visit this week.

Photo credit: 

One Direction at the Ellen DeGeneres Show

WHAT'S THE ONE DIRECTION CONNECTION? Those of you who have been following our team know it is led by students like us right here in New York, and over 75 other local forecasters across the US. We even have team forecasting in Northern Ireland and London. So it seems only right that we reach out to the internationally-acclaimed youth band from the UK and give them a uniquely local forecast, from our team, to theirs!

FIRST, THE FORECAST

• As today's snow event graces the region with a few inches of pre-winter snow from eastern PA to southeast NY, conditions will be improving (though temps feel more like Cheshire of northwest England) with highs only in the mid 40s. 
• By Friday's opening show in CT, sunny skies will prevail, making for a grand first opening day for your travel to the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT 
• For the weekend: Epic bright blue skies each of the 3 performance days, with highs in the low 40s to Sunday with winds shifting to the southwest.  

NEXT, THE GARDENS 

We'd like to know, are any readers here planning to attend One Direction's headline concert next week at Madison Square Garden? Perhaps you have a picture or two from a holiday visit to the Gardens from a previous year. Our Weather Graphics Team is preparing special forecast graphics for the event, as part of our welcoming a fellow group of students to the US! 

Please send any photos you would permit us to use in a forecast graphic to team@footsforecast.org

"Call Me Maybe."
- By Carly Rae Jepsen (not actually a forecaster)

TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY:
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC

SETS STAGE FOR STORMY PATTERN HEADING INTO DECEMBER

9:00 AM EST 11/26 - Though less than 30 days remain until the dreams of a White Christmas will end for another year, some areas of the interior Mid-Atlantic may soon see white in the winter night. Here's the preview version:

• Accumulating snow is likely along the I-81 corridor Monday night into Tuesday.
• "Falling snow" is possible in the I-95 major cities from Washington to New York for this time period. However it appears more probable that snow would fall briefly either at the start-- or end-- of the event. 
• The majority of precipitation for the cities looks to be a cold and windy rain. The precip projection above shows that available moisture will be limited to less than 1/4" - not enough to produce notable snow beyond the interior mountains.

NOAA Snowfall Probability Map: A slight (10% chance) of at least 4" for the I-81 corridor to the I-95 corridor for the period Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.

A Preview of "What Dreams May Come"  While this storm does not look to become a major surprise snow event. What's more important to note will be its ability to unleash colder Canadian air in its wake, and set the stage for a stormy and wintry pattern for the Eastern U.S. heading into early December.

(Winter Stormcast Leadership Team)

Today Is The Day

Authentic Weather 

Comes Your Way! 

HOODIES, LONG-SLEEVERS, TEAM SHIRTS
AND OUR "FIRST SNOW" CONTEST 

Sneak Previews at the Official Store Facebook Page
http://www.facebook.com/ffauthenticweather

Special Pre-Winter Pricing:

•  $ 15   for the famous Epic Blue Team Shirt
•  $ 25  for a Long-sleever in Epic Blue, Classic Bold or Purple
•  $ 35  for a Team Hoodie in one of three colors

Best part? 
FREE SHIPPING 
on orders under $50 
until December 5th

What does "Authentic Weather" mean? 
From the perspective of a local reader or forecaster, we define it as: 

• Relevant to reader interests, communities, local businesses, public safety and education;
• Locally-developed forecasts by a trusted team in your immediate area who has a applicable knowledge and interpretive skill about weather patterns.
• Collaborative; incorporating local data, forecaster analysis and reader observations.

Forecaster Joey of the Maryland Team 
in the "Powderhound Purple"

What's hoodies got to do with it?

HELP WITH A HOODIE. For added value and a way of saying thanks for your support, we're also creating a way for readers to tangibly support these effort through a purchase from our soon-to-launch online store. The start of this year-long Capital Campaign is designed to raise the funds necessary to support three reader-focused objectives:

El Nino In Twilight?

HOW COLLAPSE OF AN EXPECTED EL NINO MEANS 
A NEW DAWN IS BREAKING FOR THE WINTER FORECAST

8:30 PM EST 11/16 (Long Range Team) As fans of the teen-themed dark epic "Twilight" bundle in front of theaters for the final chapter in this saga, climate watchers are abuzz over unexpected loss in a different -- but just-as-sweeping saga: The collapse of an expected El Nino for winter 2012-13 (MSNBC article: "Why El Nino May Say 'Adios' To 2012" ).

Were Edward Cullen of the Twilight series to speak on the El Nino issue, he might simply say "I've had a bad habit of underestimating you..." So now we turn to re-assessing what this Pacific-driven change means for the long-range pattern, and why it may put the winter forecast of some organization in checkmate.  

Image credit: Dark Wallpapers

1. In early summer 2012, a number of computer model operated by U.S. government agencies, including NOAA, NASA and the Navy, projected El Nino reach least 1.0 degree Celsius above normal by December 2012. Private forecast companies, such as this July 2012 report by Accuweather.com expected that a weak to moderate El Nino would build by Autumn, contributing to an above-normal winter of snowfall in the Eastern U.S.cities. While too early to tell if that will occur with certainty, it is clear the rise in El Nino, while noticeable in early summer, was not sustainable as computer models had projected.

NOAA's Nino-Nina  "Temperature Gauge"
of the Pacific-based Nino-Nina  phenomenon

2. For an El Nino warming event to be classified as such, sea surface temperature anomalies in the crucial "Region 3.4" monitoring area of the equatorial Pacific must reach or exceed a positive 0.5 degrees C, and remain there for 3 months. This is reported publicly as the Oceanic Nino Index, or ONI. In comparison, by November 2009, just prior to the historic blizzard-filled winter of 2009-10, the ONI had already reached 1.0 C+ and was still rising. Presently, the ONI was last reported at 0.4 C+. 

NOAA Animation of recent weekly sea surface temperature anomalies in the
equatorial Pacific shows much of the region has had near-normal  levels.

3. By September, these projections were revised downward, but the expectation of a Nino-regime of above normal sea surface temperatures for winter 2012-13 was still in play. In October, the historic observation of heavy snow in six states, as a result of Hurricane Sandy, followed by the freak East coast snow event a week later, has reinforced the expectations of some that a snowy winter for the East is still on the docket. In a few weeks, we will find out if El Nino's twilight will lead to a new pattern breaking the dawn. Continue reading for our analysis looking ahead. 

What We Said, And When

February 6, 2010 - 29 inches - Perry Hall, MD

Photo by Central Maryland reader Sherry Hosley

For historical reference, a chronology of links to previous winter weather forecasts published on this site and in Facebook by the members of Foot's Forecast LLC.

HIGHLIGHTS

• 5-weeks out prediction of Mid-Atlantic snow by December 5, 2009
• 120-hour advance forecast of 24"+ in Maryland for February 4-5, 2010 
• "Hours before" life-saving plea urging readers to "get off the roads by 4 PM" on January 26, 2011 just prior to the "snow monsoon." Within hours, 5+ inches of snow had nearly shut down the Baltimore and Washington metro areas.

If you relish the tales of big snow in big cities, this is a trip down performance lane that'll make your back ache all over again just by reading what really happened, and how much you had to shovel.

WHAT WAS SAID WHEN... IN 2011

"Significant banding will occur with this second system, 

with snowfall reaching a rate up to 3, or more, inches per hour. 

 Timing of this event will put snowfall during the major metro rush hour."

 12:00 PM 1/26/2011 in "Weather whiplash has arrived."

"After an unexpected blast of snow hit the Baltimore area Wednesday AM, 

residents who had to shovel out a few inches brace for round two."

6:45 PM 1/26/2011  WJZ-13 "Wintry Mix Blasts Through Maryland" 

NOAA Final Snowfall Map: January 26-27, 2011 Event

WHAT WE SAID WHEN...IN 2010

"Our forecast team has increasing confidence a prolonged period 

of snowy weather will occur between January 30 to February 10."

6:00 AM 1/24/2010 in "Have we got plans for you."

"The  I-40 Kahuna will produce significant accumulating snowfall 

at least 50 miles farther north than what many were expecting."

11:30 PM 1/29/2010 in "Ready for 6 inches of partly cloudy?"

 "This storm has potential to eclipse December 19, 2009 ; 

February 15-18, 2003 ; January 6-8, 1996 ; March 11, 1993 ;

February 11, 1983 ; December 1966, and could rival March 18-22, 1958."

11:45 PM 2/2/2010 in "This Time I Know It's For Real."

NOAA Final Snowfall Map: February 4-7, 2010 Event

WHAT WE SAID WHEN...IN 2009

"Winter weather arrives throughout the Mid-Atlantic region 

between 11/15 and 12/5 (and) A kickoff event by 12/5."

8:00 AM 11/1/2009 in "Break It Down Again."

"..Projecting the first major snow event (for the Mid-Atlantic) 

to occur between Monday 11/30 and Saturday 12/5."

6:00 AM 11/11/2009 in "Use The Time Given To Us."

"At one point this morning, winter weather-related advisories and warnings 

extended nearly 1,500 miles from southern Louisiana to downeast Maine."

12:00 PM 12/5/2009 in "Another Fabled Fifth"

"FINAL ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT 12-20 

MAY EXCEED 12 inches in metro areas of Washington and Baltimore."

6:00 AM 12/17/2009 in "We Have A Situation."

NOAA Final Snowfall Map: December 18-21, 2009 Event

Winter Team Portal

A private communication group for those interested in exploring discussions with our Winter Stormcast Team via Facebook. 

You may join the portal by sending a request to this link: 

FF Winter Team Portal

Important notes about the portal

1. A private Facebook group page operated by our team, recently created to provide you with more in-depth access to our information.
2. Joining the portal will not result in you receiving "friend requests" from us
3. "Chats" will only occur during teleconferences.
4. "Posts" will be made about twice a week, updating you in information to go public.
5. The portal is a FREE, two-week trial effective 11/15 to 11/30.

"...what to do with 

the time given to us." 

- Gandalf, in The Hobbit (YouTube clip)

6:25 PM EST 11/14/12 (Winter Stormcast Team) With U.S. snowcover already at 30% and the majority of Canada well-covered, Powderhounds know the time is drawing near to start waxing the board and checking the bindings. For those in the transportation, utility and emergency management communities whom have followed us the past, you know when we start ramping up the language, we're not just whistlin' Dixie. 

As Gandalf said, "All we have to do is decide what to do with the time given to us."



"HOW ABOUT THE QUICK FYI?"  If you insist, here's the reason for the hub-bub:

• As originally projected here in October 2012 , and revised just after Sandy, we are predicting one or more high impact winter weather events in the Eastern U.S. between Nov 25 and Dec 20. It's not the first time we made such a claim.

• Strange as it may seem, we are not predicting a long, brutally cold winter with high levels of snowfall for these same areas. Why? An expected El Nino collapsed back to  near neutral, so the traditional influx of warm Pacific moisture that accompanies Nino patterns (as was observed in recent years such as 1997-98, 2002-03 and 2009-10) is less likely this winter. But we expect this to be another "hybrid winter."

• So what's the deal? Instead of a knock-down, drag out winter, envision your operational management plans if your facility or location were to receive 80% of your winter weather within a 3-week period-- leading up to the holidays. 

• And the rationale for that? The run-up of snowcover may permit large and cold high pressure systems in central Canada to build up. When they eventually move southeast toward the U.S. the calendar will have moved to December. This factor combined with above normal sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic, and a generally more-slow moving storm pattern, means any coastal storms -- in similar fashion to Hurricane Sandy, may be able to throw back a lot of moisture of over large areas. 

BE BETTER PREPARED. 
Interested in a FREE preview of access to our team's internal analyses? We invite you to attend a special 30-min "Q & A" Long Range teleconference call with the Winter Stormcast Team on THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15 at either 10:00 AM or 2:00 PM EST.

NO-HASSLE REGISTRATION. 
If you are already a member of our Winter Risk Email List, then you'll receive an invite today. If you'd like to join the no-spam, secure, no-obligation list for the Q & conference call, send us a short note to winter@footsforecast.org.

Don't face a tough winter alone.
CONSIDER OUR LOCAL DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES 

AND LET'S WORK THE NEXT STORM, TOGETHER.

(Photo credit: The Epoch Times, taken in Point Pleasant, NJ)

A high-impact pattern is taking shape heading into winter. Don't you deserve better support than relying on a 99-cent Smartphone app, staring at a radar loop, or basing tough decisions on a 30-second Weather Channel graphic? 

We have what you need. Immediate answers from a dedicated, local forecast team that works directly with you, every step of the way. That's what Winter Consulting Services with Foot's Forecast can do for you. 

FEMA-trained Forecaster Aaron Salter of the Maryland Team
working with Baltimore Gas & Electric representative
in a county operations center during Hurricane Sandy

Local support, when you need it most.

GET A FREE PREVIEW of the updated Winter Risk Assessment

REQUEST A FREE QUOTE for local Winter Weather Consulting

LEARN MORE ABOUT OUR Client Engagement Procedure
winter@footsforecast.org

What We Do. Foot's Forecast LLC is a private company which can deliver high-value, cost-effective local decision support in any of the lower 48 states.

• Real-time interpretative services for facility operators
• Dedicated on-site support for emergency management specialists
• High-impact decision graphics and briefing reports for coordinators
• Long-range seasonal & climate analyses for risk managers
• Event promotion & outreach for outdoor event directors

Our performance in their words
TESTIMONIALS FROM PARTNERS & CLIENTS

"You guys have always been spot-on, you've never the City down."    - Ocean City MD Department of Emergency Services.  2011-12 Dew Tour 

Forecaster Paul Bauer with Ocean City Emergency Services at the 2012 Dew Tour 

From Baltimore City, MD to Atlantic coastal communities such as Ocean City, MD., the advance information we deliver has helped our partners take cost-effective, safety-focused actions, reducing impact of weather on facilities, staff, customers and the public.

"I don't worry about the weather anymore, the Foots team does the worrying for me."  - Bel Air Downtown Alliance 

Whether large-scale event promotion such as the Baltimore Office of Promotion & The Arts, the Pantech USA Dew Tour, or dedicated on-site consult to the Baltimore City mayor during Hurricane Sandy, our team has served public safety agencies, school systems and private organizations alike with detailed climate and weather intelligence.  

CEO Rich Foot briefing the staff of Baltimore City Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake
in the city's Emergency Operations Center during Hurricane Sandy.

Review our Fusion Forecasting or Winter Services

and we're ready to work your event with you.

Recent Testimonials

Robert Maloney, Deputy Chief of Emergency Management and Public Safety for Baltimore City Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake:

“The Foot's Forecast Team has been instrumental in helping Baltimore City officials stay well-informed of weather hazards. The level of detailed weather intelligence provided has been necessary given the significant events which have affected our City of late.”  

Joe Theobald, Director of Emergency Services, Town of Ocean City, MD; following the August 2012 Dew Tour:

"The Foot's Forecast Team does commendable work assisting our city in difficult weather events and helps promote our many public events. Our department is grateful for the team's dedication and commitment to us." 

Scott Walker, Executive Director of the Bel Air Downtown Alliance, Harford County, MD; summarizing our services provided in 2012:    

"I don't worry about the weather anymore, the Foots team does the worrying for me."

Peter Beaudry, Director of Public Works, City of Kennewick, Washington; in a testimonial letter from February 1, 2012: 

"As part of Foot's Forecast team, (Forecaster) Mark Ingalls has been instrumental in providing the City of Kennewick with accurate weekly weather projections. When a storm is projected, he provides us with more frequent updates and suggestions on preparation and response. This winter the results have been obvious to our citizens, with our major roadways being in the best shape during snow and ice events."

TAKE THE RIGHT STEP FOR YOUR WEATHER NEEDS

• Weather Intelligence services for facilities operators and public safety
• "What We Said When" - a chronology of short- and long range winter weather forecasts and results from significant snow event from 2009-2012
• About our company, and contact information

WE'RE READY TO COLLABORATE WITH YOU
If you're interested in more information about how we can provide dedicated weather intelligence services to your facility, staff or organization, contact us today: collaborate@footsforecast.org OR call our dedicated client service line: 443 | 929.0721

Tricky Times For Turkey Day?

12:00 PM EST 11/11 (From The Long Range Team) While current forecast model indications show much of the U.S. in a milder, Pacific-dominated trend for the next 5-10 days, there are big concerns on the long range horizon. By Tuesday 11/20, a much  stormier pattern is expected to develop across the Eastern U.S. 

The leading event into this 3-4 week pattern may be this hypothesized multi-day coast rainstorm as shown above from the US Global Forecast System. Were this storm to occur as modeled, it would produce several days of lashing rain and coastal wind in the same Northeast & Mid-Atlantic locations impacted by Sandy and the Election Week winter storm. Not what you wanted to read for such a gorgeous Veteran's Day no doubt.

WILL IT PRODUCE SNOW? 

That's much too early to tell with any certainty. However it is notable that models have accurately projected 2 major coastal storms several weeks in advance, and both exceeded the worse case scenario for many. 

STAY IN THE KNOW, BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS.

• For those in transportation, aviation, facility management or emergency operations, you need actionable, on-site or on-line weather intelligence. We invite you to consider our high-value, cost-effective Decision Services. 
• Our plans range from short-term Urgent Service to the customized Monthly Advantage plans or our long range SeasonShield plan.

GET 25% OFF REGULAR WINTER PRICING 

We're offering a 25% off our regular winter pricing in a special 2-week Pre Winter Promotion, and we're ready to work the next storm with you: winter@footsforecast.org

A snowy Veterans Day, and 
a sentence that changed my life 

by Rich Foot, CEO & Lead Advisor: Foot's Forecast LLC

Veterans Day 1987 Storm pelting
Arlington Cemetery events
from Weatherbook.com

7:00 AM EST 11/11/2012 (Baltimore, MD) Today, we honor the dedication of our military soldiers across the world, and the ultimate sacrifice of those who have given all in the name of protecting freedom. The history of this day, firmly rooted in the original "Armistice Day" marking the end of The Great War in Europe, later became redesignated as one to honor all current and former soldiers of our nation's military forces. 

Twenty-five years ago, though the homeland was in a much more innocent time, the weather had been no less unique and challenging as present day. The 1985 hurricane season had produced a record number of named storms and 1986-87 was a notably snowy period in the Eastern U.S. On Veteran's Day in 1987, temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic were notably cool for mid-November, having just come off a warm October. As a high school senior at the time, I was immersed in the excitement of college acceptance letters and cross country with the Conestoga High School Pioneers in Chester County, PA. Little did I realized the weather was about to change my career path, forever. 

How To Engage With Our Team
5 STEPS OF OUR CLIENT SERVICE PROCESS

Questions? Contact Chief Operating Officer Keith Krichinsky

keith.krich@footsforecast.org    443 | 929.0721 

1. MEET & GREET (PHONE or IN PERSON) 

• FIRST, we schedule a brief, no-obligation teleconference to learn your weather-relevant operational priorities. Prior to the call, we issue a Decision Services overview, to help you identify which programs will best address your needs.
• Free on-site or online consult/webinar is also available upon request. 

2. SERVICE QUOTE & FREE TRIAL

• NEXT, following input from on-call or on-site discussions, we issue a service plan quote within 24 hours (if for Advantage or Seasonal) including a proposed Letter of Engagement for expedient needs. 
• FREE Trial of services are available for up to a 48 hour period (such as for a weekend outdoor concert, or during a high-impact period)
• For Urgent Service, a Letter of Engagement & Credit Card Authorization Form is sent during the teleconference.

3. LETTER OF AGREEMENT 

• THEN, after your review, modification or acceptance of the plan quote, the Letter of Agreement is signed electronically and returned with a Credit Card Authorization Form. 
• A Scope of Work follows within 24 hours, and services commence once the SOW is received by you. 

4. BILLING / RETAINER

• All plans include a reasonable retainer to account for initial services. 
• Following the retainer, a client is billed on a NET 30 from our Finance Team.
• Payments can be made by credit card, PayPal, or through our online store

5. ADJUSTMENT OF CONTRACT?

• If with 7 business days of signing, a review of the contract/SOW by the client and the team finds an area of concern warranting modification, Foot's Forecast agrees the client is entitled to a no-fee collaborative adjustment of terms and a FREE two-week extension of services at no additional charge.

We're ready to work the event with you.
Anywhere you need us.