Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Snow, Or No?
ASSESSING MID-ATLANTIC SNOW RISK 
IN THE NEXT COASTAL EVENT


4:05 PM EST 11/6 - Election Day Greetings To All! Yesterday, we were becoming concerned about the possibility of accumulating snowfall occurring more east of mountains than was originally expected. That possibility is still present, but we don't expect it to become a surprise high impact snow event as some computer models were originally hinting toward from yesterday. 


SO WHO GETS THE SNOW?  We are not ruling out snow completely, but if any snow were to develop overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, it would be confined to:
  • Coating to 2" for northeast Maryland into eastern Pennsylvania
  • Northeast New Jersey
  • The extreme eastern shore of MD and DE could also see brief periods of rain/snow mixed in the early morning hours on Thursday. 
  • Northeast NY and extreme SE New York, including NYC could see some accumulating snow if the storm track shifts more west. 
ZONES AFFECTED
Foot's Forecast: The Bayshore (Eastern MD counties) 

WHY THE CHANGE? Projections from several latest computer model runs as well as large scale atmospheric observations such as the North Atlantic Oscillation* (NAO) point to the upcoming storm, while still expected to be a very potent coastal event, is likely to remain further offshore. This will unfortunately produce strong north and northeast winds of 35+ mph along the Delmarva coast, in across New Jersey and southeast New York State. Those areas have a High Wind Watch in effect for gusts up to 60+ mph.

However west of the Chesapeake Bay, heavy precipitation is not likely to have a major impact at this time, although winds will still be strong and gusty at times Wednesday night into Thursday along and east of I-95 and along Delmarva. We will continue narrowing the possibilities for you today on this page and in our main site storm section (http://www.footsforecast.org/p/storm

(Forecasters Connor, Jason M., Greg J., Zach F., Jason I., Mike N., Advisors Foot and Alex D. ) 


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