Saturday, November 3, 2012

**Current Storm Projection For The Week Ahead**

Major Coastal Storm 
To Affect Sandy Impact Areas

WINDS UP TO 55 MPH & 8 FOOT SURGE
POSSIBLE ALONG NJ & NY COASTLINE 
CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN I-95

MID-ATLANTIC TEAM STATEMENT: 
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A MAJOR COASTAL EVENT 
FROM SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND. 

5:00 PM EST 11/5 As has been projected for several days now, there is high confidence of a major coastal storm to develop along the Southeast coast by Wednesday, move north toward New England, and bring high winds, heavy rain and significant waves to the coast and immediate inland areas of Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

SNOW FACTORS UP. Additionally, there is now an increasing concern for potential accumulating snow in some of the major cities along the I-95 corridor and further inland. These possibilities will be outlined in further detail tonight and on our Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast page. We have narrowed the possibilities down to "Scenario A" as summarized below, and shown in this map projection and loop from the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 




TIMELINE & GRAPHICS The storm would be the strongest at 984 mb by Thursday afternoon off the New Jersey coastline. The storm will be closest to land near Long Island, New York on early Friday morning. With this scenario LITTLE to NO snow accumulations would occur in the major metropolitan areas of the I-95 corridor from Richmond to New York.
Our "4-panel graphic" by Meteorologist Alex Davies, Surf & Sail Team. 
Possible effects to Sandy impact areas
• Rainfall: 2-3" from the coast inland to the I-95 corridor   
 Coastal wind: Sustained 35-45 mph, gusts up to 55 mph 
• Inland wind: (interior NJ/Delmarva to I-95)
Sustained 20-30 mph, gusts 40 mph  
• Snowfall: Starting early Thursday morning for inland areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast including central Appalachians of Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York and the White/Green Mountains of New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. All snowfall would come to an end by Friday Evening. 
• High temps: Coastal highs ~50 F, Inland highs upper 40s 
• Low temps: Coastal lows in low 40s, inland lows mid 30s 

NEED DIRECT SUPPORT? If your company, agency or organization would to assure you are receiving the best available information about this storm threat, we invite you to contact us about our Storm Services & Direct Support program. We're here to work the storm with you: storm@footsforecast.org or call us 443-929-0721 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting            443-929-0721      end_of_the_skype_highlighting       


STORM SCENARIOS: In the link below, our previous analyses and scenarios posted over the weekend.




Was Sandy The Beginning?



Projected 5-day precipitation potential ending Friday morning.
A coastal low would produce winds of 25-40 mph for 24+ hours

2:00 PM EST 11/4 | LATEST TEAM STATEMENT | Our Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Team remains  increasingly concerned about the anticipated development of a new coastal  storm system which may begin to impact areas hard hit by Hurricane Sandy as early as Thursday morning. For those along the Mid-Atlantic coast such as the southern Chesapeake, the MD/DE coast and the NJ/NJ coastlines, do what you can with damaged property or supplies to secure those away from areas prone to flooding. While surprise surges  of 6+ feet (such as what took place in Crisfield MD) below are not expected, the waves, tides and rain of this next system could easily produce 2-3 foot rises in flood-prone areas.

Downtown Crisfield, MD Monday 10/29. Local & county officials
in Somerset County MD were  not adequately informed of this threat 

SCENARIOS: We have updated our three scenarios which might take place next week, from more likely (Scenario A) to less likely (Scenario C). It should be noted that Hurricane Sandy had a significant effect on the air flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, and may have set in motion a pattern which could produce several additional storms in rapid sequence over the next few weeks. Our multi-state team is continuing to analyze the data that becomes available and will keep you posted. See below for the scenarios. (Forecasters Jason Isaacs [GA], Zach Fasnacht [PSU], Rich Foot [MD], Alex Davies [DE] and the Winter Stormcast Team).
QUICK ANALYSIS: The graphic below is from the U.S. Global Forecast System Ensemble projection for md next week. The image that shows that a trough will be building throughout the Eastern United States in the days ahead. Regardless of the scenario that develops, this trough will produce a period of increased storm potential. Below is the preliminary long range forecast map for next Wednesday, and the animation so you can see the general storm track ideas. We will revise this report Sunday evening.

NOAA RESOURCES Additional reports from NOAA Meteorologists to aid in our analysis of storm potential include:

From the NOAA U.S. Hazards Assessment report & graphic
This graphic will be revised Sunday evening. We expect rain to 
extend  farther  west than is currently being projected 

SCENARIO A: COASTAL RAIN; SNOW FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95. The storm keeps a parallel course following the southeastern, mid-Atlantic, and northeastern coastline. The storm would be the strongest at 984 mb by Thursday afternoon off the New Jersey coastline. The storm will be closest to land near Long Island, New York on early Friday morning. With this scenario LITTLE to NO snow accumulations would occur in the major metropolitan areas of the I-95 corridor from Richmond to New York.
Possible effects to Sandy impact areas
High temps: Coastal highs ~50 F, Inland highs upper 40s 
Low temps: Coastal lows in low 40s, inland lows mid 30s 
Rainfall: 2-3" from the coast inland to the I-95 corridor   
Coastal wind: Sustained 25-35 mph, gusts up to 55 mph 
Inland wind: (interior NJ/Delmarva to I-95)
Sustained 15-25 mph, gusts 40 MPH  
Snowfall: Starting early Thursday morning for inland areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast including central Appalachians of Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York and the White/Green Mountains of New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. All snowfall would come to an end by Friday Evening. 


SCENARIO B: SIGNIFICANT RAIN / MOUNTAIN MIX. The storm keeps a parallel course following the southeastern coastline. The storm early Thursday morning would travel slightly inland at the Maryland/Delaware border with a minimum pressure of 988 mb. By Thursday afternoon, the storm would resume a N/NE path and following the northeastern coastline, traveling just east of NJ. 

Possible effects to Sandy impact areas 
High temps: Coastal highs low 50s, Inland highs ~50 F
        Low temps: Coastal lows in mid 40s, inland lows mid 30s
Rainfall: 2-3" from the coast to the I-95 corridor   
Coastal winds: Sustained 25-35 mph, gusts to 55 mph 
• Snowfall: Possible rain/snow mix in West Virginia/western areas of Virginia/southern Appalachians. No major accumulations due to mixing.

SCENARIO C: COASTAL RAIN + SNOW I-95 & WEST. The storm keeps a parallel course following the Southeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeastern Coastline. The storm Early Thursday Afternoon has the possibility of going slightly inland near Boston, Massachusetts with a minimum pressure reading of 988 MB before heading out to sea and keeping a north-northeast course following the Northeastern Coastline. This scenario would bring a significant surge of colder air, and introduce the possibility of brief snow in the I-95 corridor from New York to Washington.

Possible effects to Sandy impact areas

Rainfall: Amounts up to 2 ½ inches 

Wind: Gusting to 40 MPH 

Snowfall: Starting early Thursday morning for inland areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast including central Appalachians of Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York and the White/Green Mountains of New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. All snowfall would come to an end by Friday Evening.

56 comments:

NeedaSnowday said...

Nor'easter ..... cold rain?

Andy? Julee? Julie? BP? Amy? Ravensbbr?

ravensbbr said...

Hey Need, had football practice this afternoon, just got back in.

Scenario, to my amatuer eyes, looks potentially kinda bad for NJ and NY, but maybe not so bd for MD? Andy?

NeedaSnowday said...

Brrr... brisk out there, but that is good FB weather!

I think NJ/NY too unfortunately for the Sandy-impacted areas.

When I look at the devastation I feel blessed it didn't come up the Bay... could have been us!

Amy said...

Wishing snow were higher on the scenario list, but it's placement at the bottom makes more sense. I worry about the extra rain since NJ and NYC seem most likely based on the models (at least for now...).

ravensbbr said...

GFS seems to like the chances for now...you can view the model runs here...

http://coolwx.com/ptype/

BioPat said...

It has been a cool November day today. Open House tomorrow at school followed by a Monday off to take a closer look at this pending weather. I'm afraid our neighbors to the north are going to get another smack they do not need. MD dodged a major bullet and looks like it will do the same this week as well. Not to say we won't feel some impact but certainly not what NY and NJ are having to cope with this week.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Still too early to pinpoint details but the latest Euro has a general 4-8 snow for our region. Temps are borderline and ratios hard to pinpoint but the potential exists for 4-8 inches of snow. If track tweeks and temps run cooler then someone could see 9-12 or conversely nothing but cold rain or rain snow mix. Euro has been consistent and it has done well in this blocky pattern. Dust off the shovels just in case! It is early in the season but we are in the game!

NeedaSnowday said...

If only this was Dec 4th those shovels would be getting a workout...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

If the 12z euro is correct we are looking at a historic November snowstorm. 4-8 in balt/wash with up to 12 to the nw burbs! Hurricane and snowstorm within a week? Last year we had tropical storms and earthquakes, so why not?

NeedaSnowday said...

......And if Flacco could play well on the road it would be historic...

::glum:: sorry... just venting..

Bring on the SNOW!!!!

ravensbbr said...

Need, it's not Flacco, it's the #$(&@#* plays Cam Cameron calls for him. When they go no-huddle = money. Cam = disaster.

Andy, are you serious? Crap, the snowblower is in pieces in the garage being refurbished...guess I know what I'm doing now this evening... :-)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

In true Churchill style the Euro stands alone. It has been consistent so if the other models move toward its solution then we might be in for a pre-season Blitz.

ravensbbr said...
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ravensbbr said...
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ravensbbr said...

(previous spelling error corrected)In that case, Andy, let's pray this storm does a Nevil Chamberlain and just appeases NY/NJ...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Appeasement is a very neccessary evil if you don't have the resources to engage or handle a very large storm! A storm that has been forstalled is not one that is denied! Gives you time to get some meat for the Manwhich sauce mein amerikanischen fraulein freund!

ravensbbr said...

Nicht eine Fraulein, meine sehr gesprächig Wetter kenntnisreicher Freund, ich ein Berliner. (translates as either resident of Berlin, jelly donut, or dude, just depends on the dialect...)

Ferner, irgendwie heraus, dass er dachte, ich wäre eine Fraulein ausgeflippt. Wirklich nicht sicher, was ihn denken? Er ehrlich, bei sechs Fuß vier und 270£, würde ich eine hässliche Frau ... :-)

NeedaSnowday said...

Yes yes CAM is a disaster!! Drives me crazy!

Uhm, Andy.. here is what I deciphered from your last post..

Evil
Storm
Denied
Manwich

NeedaSnowday said...

Ravensbbr... EEK!! that is what I was shrieking at the TV during the game!! Dayum....

ravensbbr said...

eh, 4 years of German, and an online translator handy...so mostly the translator.

What worries me the most is that I'm pretty sure he called me a woman. And that's no offense to women, I'm just not one. :-)

http://translate.google.com/#de/en/

if you're bored, check it out, seems to conjugate pretty well for a computer...

NeedaSnowday said...

Ohh.. and the 6'4 270 dude was Kruger trying to get a sack...not an ugly woman!

Dieses team ist so frustrierend, nun bringen sie mir etwas schnee!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

LOL! For some reason I thought Needy had written that comment and I posted from my mobile phone! There is a place in this world for 6' 4" women, but not in the hinterlands! I am certain not all ladies that are 6"4" are ugly. Es tut mir leid, dass für Fehler!

NeedaSnowday said...

I am crackin up!!

Will check in tomorrow .. gotta go watch to see if Ryan, Bryant & White will get me some additional fantasy football points!!

ravensbbr said...

Andy, alles in Ordnung ist, keine Sorgen, Sie denken sich nichts dabei, zu wissen, mein Wetter Freund.

ravensbbr said...

Need, if only the Steelers had lost, that would have been the icing on the cake. As it was, settle for the ugly win and hope for better things against da Raidahs next week...

JMUkid said...

Would you nice people care to share what impacts this next storm may have on the Shenandoah Valley (Harrisonburg)? I do not speak much German (none, actually) so a response in English would be much appreciated. Take care, everyone!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Next storm will be done in Chinese, so this time around we at least utilized the roman alphabet! Todays runs will be telling and last nights euro shows a historic November snowstorm. Still looks like a 4-8 inch event for Baltimore Washington but there needs to be more model consensus to make that a forecast. Right now that is a possibly and one that needs to be taken seriously.

The Wivells said...

If this does happen to bring 4-8 inches of snow (or more) to our area, do you think the temps will be so warm that none of it sticks to the roads? Or will the temps plunge, allowing stickage to be a real concern?

The Wivells said...

Ok, so it looks like the Euro has now joined forces with the GFS and SREF models, taking the Low further from the coast. From what I can tell, (and I'm very much a rookie at this) snow totals will be limited to just a dusting with about a 10% chance of 4" of snow for our area. Of course this could change with subsequent model runs, but at this point it is looking more and more like a non event for our area.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Still looks like a solid 4-8 inch event from bwi points north and east. Less south and west of bwi. This would be a winter storm warning event for baltimore if it verifies as currently depicted.

The Wivells said...

Thanks for setting me straight Andy! Every time I think I understand this stuff I realize I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing!

BioPat said...

So Andy, you're confidence level on a 4-8" for our area is a ?? I remember a mid-'80 unexpected snowstorm that dumped a foot of snow in the Baltimore area on Nov 11th. Stranded kids in schools overnight! We had to convince our principal that thundersnow was a valid reason to cancel a faculty meeting (duh)! I just read a post the European model is indicating a foot of snow for Delmarva!
BTW, I agree can the Cam!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Bp,

Moderate to heavy snow has been consistently depicted for this area. Obviously the latest data takes most accumulation out of the equation for the DC and immediate area, but keeps Baltimore under the gun. Confidence is relatively low in light
of climatology, but high enough to warrant our very close attention. This is not set in stone and time will tell.

BioPat said...

Thanks for the update Andy. I agree the pending situation does bear close attention over the next few days. It appears we may be in a pattern right now that may be bringing a few storms our way.

Amy said...

Andy- I'm trying not to get my hopes up. Last year's snow drought has definitely left me lusting for snow, and lots of it!

NeedaSnowday said...

UGGGGGGHH...

Wha' happened?

ravensbbr said...

I wonder if JMUkid thinks we do this in German always? :-)

Kidding, JMU, welcome to the club.

Julee said...

Je parle francais mes amis. Il neige? Mon Dieu!!!
My 90 year old mother is going in for hip surgery tomorrow. Don't make me drive through a foot of snow to the hospital ... pleeeeease!
I PROMISE I'll buy ground beef!!!!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Julee, the storm shifted east with the latest gfs run. The trend is your friend for safe travel! In the true Napolianic spirit this evenings run has been the storms Waterloo. I expect the Euro to shift as well, so open up the King Louis the xiii cognac (anything less is dime store hootch), and celebtate uninhibited ambulatory bliss. On to the next threat! This was more interesting than all of last winter, so no complaints from this groundling in the Shakespeare sense of the word.

Julee said...

Thanks, thanks and again thanks Andrew, Bard of the Eastern Wind! Why not Napolean Brandy on such a chilly eve as this?
My abject apologies for wishing against the snow, but I anticipate many evenings traversing the higways to and from the hospital, oftentimes with yet another age-d parent in tow. Don't need one more thing to worry about.
I agree that the lead up WAS more exciting than anything 2011-12 offered up. Hoping we see more anticipatory events soon.
I SWEAR I'm buying ground beef!

Addye said...

Any chance Westminster will be seeing any of the snow?

Addye said...

So, I just finished reading previous posts...I am confused...I also am not a meteorologist. Does this mean there is no snow coming? :'( I despise waiting games....the anticipation kills me. I have a 5 yr old son, who is very much like his mother, and is also, desperate to see some snowfall. I figure, since its colder than a witch's u kno what, y not?? Lol....thank u all so much for keeping us informed.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

It appears that this region will not see any accumulating snow out of this system. There could be some snow showers that do not stick or a period of light snow.
Addye,

The latest trends have taken the energy associated with the system too far east. With marginal temps, any light snow that does result will only wet the ground. It still bears watching, but if you are hoping to use your snow shovel, this storm will likely not deliver. The ship has not sunk just yet, but its taking on 100 gallons a minute and I'm bailing with a tablespoon.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I meant it's (as in it is) in the above post, not its which was an inadvertent typo. I know there are some angry grammar teachers out there who are off on election day, hoping for a crippling Nor'easter (Julee excluded), whose ire I do not want to draw.

I'm simply a remedial mountain man living in the rural hills of Pa try'in to make sense of the weather, and since I ain't bringing good news I don't want to give yall more reason to be hatein on me cause of my lack of learnin!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I have said this over the years and I always keep this in mind when tracking a storm. Never turn you back on any storm.

While it appears we will see no accumulating snow, the atmosphere is ever changing and the computer models are always picking up on those changes however slight or not so slight they might be.

This storm has everything against it ie: time of year, lack of a strong high pressure, the need for almost perfect timing etc. The models are picking up on features and indicating they are not going to come together in a way to give us snow. If any one of those features changes then the forecast can change. So, at this point I will not be dusting off that shovel or snowblower but I will keep watching the threat until I can 100% exclude it. I am 90% there, but it is interesting to have such a threat this early in the season.

ravensbbr said...

Disappointed and yet relieved.

Snowblower still in pieces in garage, so possible reprieve for now, I'll take it.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Well ravenbbr,

There is a lot of model waffling and teasing. The best location for this event is to the immediate northeast of baltimore city up 83 to 95this through philly. Latest trends are pushing more precip. I would fuess 2-4 inches not out if the question but mainly on grassy surfaces. Time will tell.

Julee said...

MODEL WAFFLING???? IS there such a thing as " model waffling?" Sounds like something politicians accuse one another of -- "Senator Dodd is an inveterate model waffler!"

Sitting in the OR waiting room, hoping those aren't Belgian waffles ... all BIG and fluffy!!

Thanks for the heads up Andrew!!

JULIE SMITH said...

getting excited FITF FITF

Wish I could remember my google password so I could comment during the day at work :?

Julie

Amy said...

Julie- at least your work doesn't block all blogs. Way back when this website had blog in its address, I couldn't even check it at work. Now I can't see comments and my phone clears the comment box every time I attempt to publish.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

34 degrees with steady light snow here in the sticks

The Wivells said...

A baumy 41 here in Westminster!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Moderate snow and sticking to deck cars and grass.

Julee said...

Snowing when I left the hospital at 9:00.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Everything completely covered here. Hope its not a repeat of last season where we got 8 inches before Halloween and nothing else the rest of thr season.

ravensbbr said...

And...absolutely nothing here in the borderlands. Wait, let me check again...nope, nothing. Sucks.