Saturday, December 29, 2012

Do You See What I See?


9:45 AM EST 12/30/12 (Long Range Team)  


As we turn the corner toward 2013, one question is on the minds of many readers regarding snow and storms. "What was that it, or is there more to come?" 

We can say with high confidence the winter pattern is just getting underway.  Long range ideas by our colleagues at NOAA rightly point to a less stormy pattern the next 7 daysHowever, the large scale placement of air masses, as indicated by the North Atlantic Oscillation and other teleconnections, clearly suggests while storminess is taking a break across the lower 48 states, we believe the pattern is also reloading to repeat with equal or greater ferocity in the 10-20 day period ahead. We'll have more details on this potential in an updated analysis by 12/31.

Photo credit: Ms. Ingrid Lochte in Glen Rock, PA from 12/29/2012 snow. 




Good Things Come To Those Who Wait

NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RECEIVING SECOND SNOWFALL IN A WEEK

10:00 AM EST 12/29 
(Winter Stormcast Team Statement) 


Are you hitting the slopes today or out for a drive to a holiday destination? Snow has overspread a large portion of the mid-Atlantic this morning and is expected to continue through the day. Full details in our statement below:



WHAT'S THE DEAL? As you would expect, some aspects of the storm have changed overnight. The major issue being that the snow we are seeing today is from two systems which will eventually come together along the coast. 
  • Between the two systems in central MD, a dry area of no precipitation has formed. Snow should eventually begin to overspread this area around 10-11AM but the lack of initial snowfall this morning will bring snow totals down significantly in MD. 
  • Across Central/Three Rivers/Northeast PA the snow from the northern system has been heavier than expected and so some of the areas may be seeing 6in from this system. 


TIMING: Snow has begun across Pennsylvania, West Virginia, western Maryland, and southern New York. Readers in State College, PA are reporting over 5" since daybreak. New Jersey will see snow pushing in momentarily. The snow should continue through these areas as we continue through the morning. Once the storms phase later this morning, the entire mid-Atlantic will be seeing precipitation from the systems. The snow will push out by mid-late afternoon, from south to north. 

REVISED SNOW AMOUNTS - FOR OUR FORECAST ZONES

  • Three Rivers: 3-5" | Central PA & Northeast 3-6" | Southeast PA: 2-4"
  • Potomac Ridge & Valley: 3-6" (Western MD) 
  • Central NJ: 2-4" 
  • North Central MD: 1-3" | South Central MD: C-1"
  • Capital Region D.C. MD: C-1" | Southern MD: C-1"

IMPACTS: Travelers heading on long weekend vacations will be impacted if they try to leave Saturday. Roads are quickly becoming snow covered across the mid-Atlantic as surface temperatures are below freezing in most areas. Once the snow melts on the roads due to the sun and salt being put on the roads, watch out for icy patches where it freezes back over. Expect travel to be difficult during the morning and afternoon Saturday. Conditions may begin improving by the evening, especially in southern areas where the snow moves out early in the afternoon. 

Lead Writer: Winter Stormcast Director Zach Fasnacht.
Contributors: Forecasters Connor M., Greg J., Jason M., Rich Foot, Keith K., Jason I.

26 comments:

ravensbbr said...

Coming down more steady now in NE Carroll...drive is now getting covered...the ole' John Deere might see some action today after all?

We'll see...I have a firm policy of not snowthrowing any amount under...wait, actually I will use that sucker on any amount of snow, who am I kidding? :-)

NeedaSnowday said...

Lightly falling now... game over?

::laughing at vision of BBR throwing 1/2 inch of snow::

ravensbbr said...

It happens...neighbors get a kick out of watching me, but hey, it saves the back...

Hoping for it retroing back in, but L looks to be smoking NE, and too much dry air...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Around 2 inches here and coming down at a moderate clip.

NeedaSnowday said...

Dangit Andy just saw pic you posted on AW.... nice!!

BBR - Sat @ 8? Not confirmed though!!

http://russellstreetreport.com/forum/showthread.php?101810-Ravens-wild-card-game-scheduled-for-Saturday-Jan-5-at-8PM

ravensbbr said...

Sat @ 8 would work well, can go hunting all day with my son, and not have to come home early...

ravensbbr said...

Andy, do any weather models do well at predicting dry air entraining, and if so, which ones do you like?

NeedaSnowday said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcB-GTEL0ZU

HUNT HUNT HUNT.... Don't stop huntin' 'til you got 'em on your wall!!


here ya go BBR!!

NeedaSnowday said...

Glad this is a place where posters are NICE to each other... I am just disgusted with the hateful spirit on AW... mean, rude & full of haters..

::vent over::

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Aw is a fun place also. Just a lot of jumpy people there that you have to not bait. I limit my posts there to observations and banter, because you can see if you make a forecast and do an analysis like Justin berk does the haters will rip you apart. Lots of great posts there and fun conversation, but too many are only interested in what a model shows on a given run and live and die by each model run. I like it for raw model data from people that have access to pay sites etc and do play by plays for the latest Euro from a pro source. It is a good source for a variety of points of view concerning raw data.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

BBR,

I think we are almost done with this. Maybe some isolated snow showers this afternoon. Here there is still light steady snow and over 3 inches on the ground. No complaints from me. Hoping to score some more in January. Not too excited about the Jan 3 event but still time to keep an eye on it.

ravensbbr said...

hey all,

just got back in from clearing about 3 inches or so. OK, so most of that time was spent snowball fighting with the lads. :-)

Need, possibly my new favorite Ravens/hunting clip ever! Thanks!

Andy, thanks for getting back to me, hopefully here's to some more fodder for the discussions to come.

Can anyone post the "AW" URL? THanks

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/sets/72157632375106317/show/

Some picts from the crib today.

NeedaSnowday said...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/12-mid-atlantic/

is AW link....

ravensbbr said...

Andy, that's about 2x snow what we got here, at a guess.

Anyone else miss the old forums where you could post pics easier?

ravensbbr said...

need, thanks for the link

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

It is amazing what a little elevation and being away from the water can do for you in a storm. If I had an option though, I would prefer to live close to the bay on the shore as I can more easily take advantage of fishing and rec activity most of the year. Living up here does have a snowier advantage so I take what I can get.

NeedaSnowday said...

Did someone forget to leave out the breadcrumbs for Julee, Julie, BP, Amy, etc?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

No, but they likely went through the complimentary case of malt liquor that Foot's Forecast provides its members for the holidays (budget constraints and discount shipping, just got mine this morning) and after they emerged from their stupor they are currently undergoing kidney and liver flushings at the local free clinic in preparation for further New Years libations.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

32 degrees and snow flurries from Lake Erie lake effect falling right now. Finally looks like winter. Amazing how far that NW fetch is funneling moisture this far south east this morning. Still not sold on the storm threat late this week, but I will not turn my back to it. We have been in an active period so it is worth watching.

NeedaSnowday said...

Sun shining brightly ... no trace of snow remains..

End of week threat seems to be disappearing, but oh, what a discussion developed on the accuweather forum .. :::wide-eyes:::

Guess I will be forced to attend event at end of week... nooooooooooo!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Drive 20 minutes up I-83 and it looks like the arctic up here. Blowing snow and howling winds.

ravensbbr said...

Did not get complimentary liquor from FF.

Feeling kinda left out.

Watching storm system stretch from New Mexico to Kentucky and thinking it'll remain south.

Happy New Year!

NeedaSnowday said...

Black Monday is on a roll... WOW!

Wishing a White Winter was to follow.. ::sigh::

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

It is clear that this week will be cold and dry and next week is on track to very mild with readings in the 50s. I am looking to the second half of the month for snow chances at this point.

Jeremy S. said...

Where's the updated long range analysis?