Wednesday, January 30, 2013

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40 comments:

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Here in the mid atlantic it will become significantly colder next week. There is little chance that we see a plowable snow before the 20th. Generally cold and dry conditions will dominate. The only chance I see is a pre or post frontal type event that could sneak up on us and hit us with a 1-3 inch event if we are lucky, although I would not count on it. I will be back in 9 days to see what the final third of the month has in store for us. I reposted this here, but I really hope my thoughts turn out to be wrong. It has been way too long since we have seen any type of significant warning criteria snow.

NeedaSnowday said...

Purple reign.... again!

ravensbbr said...

Thanks, Andy. Hoping Feb. might come through...

Need, best game I've ever seen. Still hoarse today...

As Harbaugh said, that game...was good for the game. :-)

BioPat said...

Looks like some snow moving in tomorrow into Friday. Nothing that sound "plow-able" but enough to get us thinking more about winter. At least it won't change any plans for that big game this weekend!

Julee said...

BIOPAT : ) !!!

I'll be happy just to SEE the snow falling, doesn't even have to amount to anything.
I should also like to say that my birds were at the feeding station allllllllllll day today. Those BIRDS! Must have a link to NWS!

Andrew ... anything?

ravensbbr said...

AW being awfully bullish on Thu/Fri storm...anyone, your thoughts?

BioPat said...

Looks like AA County and south will be seeing more snow than those north of Baltimore. However, if there is any adjustment north things could be dicey for a bit. Howard County could see 2-4" at this writing but a lot can change in 15 hours.
Maybe this is the turning point toward winter for the next 10 - 12 days!

Great to see you online all!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

After a brief colder spell next week things seem like they will warm up to above average temps. I think plowable snow chances for January are extremely low. Hopefully February will deliver something that resembles winter weather. It has been a long 2 years and no relief is sight for the next couple of weeks. The best chance for accumulating snow this evening will be south and east of Annapolis. Saint Mary's County, Talbot, and Dorchester could be the big winners with 3 inches region wide with up to 5 in a few isolated areas.

Julee said...

Yeah, that's not what I wanted to hear (read).

ravensbbr said...

Yeah, me neither, but it is what it is...here's to February!

#IdtakearepeatofFeburary2010please

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I am very optimistic. We are moving into our snowiest 5 weeks of the year from a climate perspective. The last week of January through all of February is very favorable as the storm track shifts south. That is the one constant. The question is the details. The models have been terrible and inconsistent with warmth winning on numerous runs, then jumping back cold in others. To me as an amateur snow enthusiast this bodes extremely well for us.

When there is a battle between warmth and cold, it can lead to some explosive storms. Since the models have us in the battleground zone, I like our odds at seeing some serious storminess especially in light of climatology.

When models show this type inconsistency during our most favorable snow period, placing us in the battleground, I think we are in great shape.

Starting this Saturday the 26th will be our first battleground threat which could deliver a mix of snow and slop, to the next couple weeks that follow will allow for some real snowstorm threats to emerge.

Jeremy S. said...

Thanks, Andy! Great to hear!

Mike Cheuvront said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
NeedaSnowday said...

Count in my annual field trip to Orlando to bring in a storm - Feb 12! BOOK IT! :)

ravensbbr said...

#GORAVENS!!! ALL THE WAY #team

Oh, and wow, if Andy's an "amatuer" snow enthusiast, I hate to think what that makes me. :-)

NeedaSnowday said...

I am just sooooooo excited about Ravens goin' to NAWLINS! WOW...

now, about some snow..??

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jeremy S. said...

"a very minor 6-10 inch event". By my standards, that's major!

ravensbbr said...

Works for me..


...minor...6"-10"...love it... :-)

NeedaSnowday said...

::blink:: minor?

BioPat said...

Looking forward to some measurable snow on Friday, but what a waste we're off anyway for semester holiday. However, will enjoy having husband home for the day to relax. I guess I'll have to relinquish the snow blower duty to my daughter or husband as I'm not sure I'm strong enough post-surgery to push it through 10" of snow. Oh well, I can keep the hot chocolate in ready and make cookies for post shovel relaxation.
As cold as it is right now and with continued cold in the forecast I'd say we're pretty much inline for this event. I'm glad the AFC game was this past weekend and our Ravens will be getting off to New Orleans before the snow hits, giving them plenty of practice time.
Like the verbiage Andy, you know how Baltimorons get when they hear that "S" word.

HoCoKTchr said...

Faith in the flakes! 6"-10" would be a lot of faith...but, "I believe! I believe!" :)

BioPat said...

Joe Basterdi, Weather Underground, has one map showing potential for 9" - 12" in Baltimore area. JB posted that the storm is drifting further south than originally projected so would bring larger accumulation into Balto. However, the storm is just at the 72 hour mark where you can begin to pull together a decent projection. As Andy indicated with these low temps the water to snow ratio, will be increasing. FIF!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Every run of the GFS and NAM has been worse and worse for this storm. The storm is not going to stall and explode off the coast according to these models. The NAO is neutral which does not support imediate coastal developement. I hope the models are wrong but this appears to be a little or non event if the models are correct.

BioPat said...

OH well, as timing gets closer to Friday, it does look like a non-event at present. Still too far out for any conclusive prediction.

ravensbbr said...

Would agree, starting to look more like a quick hit. Waiting until Thu morning to get snowthrower ready. (or not)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Looks like the pattern may deliver something nice after all. Will my 10 inches or more at BWI before March 10th forecast verify? Time will tell. Could we do it in style? Blizzard of 2013? So many questions, but the trends are really nice!

NeedaSnowday said...

Been lookin' like models might agree to shovel-able snow..... just in time for spring sports! HA!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Get excited on Monday or Tuesday.The models are all over the place. Look at the 18z run of the GFS (good for *#$t).Shows the storm to our south and missing us completely. The earlier runs were more favorable. Joe Bastardi is getting excited however. After so many dissapointments the last 2 years,I will believe it when I experience it!

BioPat said...

Basterdi is looking at March '62 storm which is showing a similar path to the anticipated Tuesday - Thursday storm. I have no doubt there will be a storm, but will the cold match up with the moisture or will it be blocked and stay south then ots. Still too early, maybe by tomorrow they'll have a better picture.

BioPat said...

I was going to change the position of the lawn mower and snow blower in the garage today, but maybe I can hold off until next weekend for that bit of spring cleaning.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

This storm is coming north period. Models almost always place the low much further south and it almost always verifies north. The north trend has already begun. I still like the idea of a 10 inch plus snow at BWI. The pattern has looked great for the last couple of weeks and now we have the storm in the most favorable pattern in 2 years. By Monday the details will come into focus, but this will be a heavy hitter. In addition to the low placement being further south the precip shield at this range tends to be overly consolidated. If history in this set-up holds, model trends, regional climatology, we will see a storm north of where it is now, and a more expansive snow shield than currently modeled. At this stage I'm all in for a double digit snowfall plus.

Jeremy S. said...

Are you guys going to put a post up on the main site concerning this storm soon? I feel like once you guys get into a storm, we may actually have something big on our hands. Instead of a fabulous February, there could be some March Madness.

Jeremy S. said...

P.S.: Remember that thing you said about at the only hope of winter left would be a fluke? Well...there you go.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Well my hope for the fluke came more after the 10th. I still felt that looking at the pattern that it would have a great chance at delivering. There are never any certainties in the world of weather, but the pattern seemed so ripe I made the bold call of 10 or more inches at BWI before the 10th. That call was based on this type of set-up, and now we have a storm to go with it.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

18z gfs show 1-2 feet of snow area-wide.

Julee said...

One to two FEET??? Get OUT!!! I might actually HAVE to buy milk.
Doing it on Sunday though.

Thanks Andrew. I KNEW you'd wake up SOMEtime today. This is YOUR baby!

NeedaSnowday said...

:::note to self::: pick up few cans of manwich!

ravensbbr said...

I really hope this one hits.

Getting tired of telling my sons that snow will have to wait until next year for them to go play in. :-)

Home improvements, yard work, everything else can wait a week or so. One Kahuna is all I ask...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Julee,

Victory has many fathers, but defeat is an orphan. The last two years have been awful for snow. There has even been little potential for snow to even discuss. We need this storm so we at least have renewed faith that next season could bring us a normal winter. I have liked early March for a long time in terms of the pattern. I felt like if it did not deliver by the 10th it was over, barring some historical fluke later in the month.

To me real winter ends around the 10th of March as the sun angle is just brutal for snow accumulation after that. The pattern was right, the sun angle is not completely awful yet but already a little toasty, but will be downright nuclear in 10 days plus.

It is still winter and the stars have aligned. Hopefully we bring this one home.