8:00 PM EST 12/13 (Long Range Team) While everyone was celebrating the fun of 12/12/12 and or taking in the great music of the Hurricane Sandy benefit concern, our team has been working on creative analysis of the next big production:
When will it snow, where and how much.
We know many educators, parents, teachers and families are nervously watching the calendar and the long range forecast. With the last full week of school straight ahead, any disruption of the schedule will significantly crimp many schedules.
What we can tell you:
- On November 2, 2012 we predicted "one or more large scale, high impact winter weather events in the Eastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic between November 25 and December 20"
- A period of much-below normal temperatures from late November to early January, similar to the Dec 1989 cold wave, followed by a significant warm period in the East for January 2013, ending with a brief return to cold, stormy weather by mid-February.*
- Option A: The storm generally stays out to sea, with limited impact to population centers except for a cold wind and some minor coastal flooding.
- Option B: A track much closer to the coast, but with a daytime start to the precipitation, would produce mainly rain on the coast. For those hoping to avoid the hassle of a big snowstorm along I-95, this is clearly your better outcome. The storm's impacts would be diluted and reduced by daytime warming and thus little snow.
- Option C: A track just off the coast would yield snow for portions of the Mid-Atlantic, carrying over into daytime. For those yearning to eek out "one snow day" in metropolitan areas of the Mid-Atlantic, and see a consolidation of a long week into a shorter one, this is your preferred storm plan.
When will we know more? Our team expects to have a revised collaborative statement in the next 24 hours, posted by Friday night 12/14.