Thursday, December 13, 2012

"Look, I just want to know: When it is going to snow?"

8:00 PM EST 12/13 (Long Range Team) While everyone was celebrating the fun of 12/12/12 and or taking in the great music of the Hurricane Sandy benefit concern, our team has been working on creative analysis of the next big production:

When will it snow, where and how much
We know many educators, parents, teachers and families are nervously watching the calendar and the long range forecast. With the last full week of school straight ahead, any disruption of the schedule will significantly crimp many schedules. 

What we can tell you:
  • On November 2, 2012 we predicted  "one or more large scale, high impact winter weather events in the Eastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic between November 25 and December 20"
  • A period of much-below normal temperatures from late November to early January, similar to the Dec 1989 cold wave, followed by a significant warm period in the East for January 2013, ending with a brief return to cold, stormy weather by mid-February.*
How things are looking so far? For a few days, computer models were showing a coastal storm for the Tue-Wed period of next week. However, in recent days this trend has changed to less of an impact on the East coast. We offer these three scenarios thus far. There is not enough data to support additional speculation about the storm outcome. 
  • Option A:  The storm generally stays out to sea, with limited impact to population centers except for a cold wind and some minor coastal flooding.
  • Option B: A track much closer to the coast, but with a daytime start to the precipitation, would produce mainly rain on the coast. For those hoping to avoid the hassle of a big snowstorm along I-95, this is clearly your better outcome. The storm's impacts would be diluted and reduced by daytime warming and thus little snow.
  • Option C: A track just off the coast would yield snow for portions of the Mid-Atlantic, carrying over into daytime. For those yearning to eek out "one snow day" in metropolitan areas of the Mid-Atlantic, and see a consolidation of a long week into a shorter one, this is your preferred storm plan. 
When will we know more? Our team expects to have a revised collaborative statement in the next 24 hours, posted by Friday night 12/14.

5 comments:

BearCub said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
BearCub said...

This website has always made forecasts after the event. For example, the excuse from Foot would be, "Oh, I was away for a few days and could not post, sorry about that. What my forecast said was..." You guys need to start forecasting, instead of pointing to the material from other weather sites.

HoCoKTchr said...

I respectfully disagree with BearCub's post. Remember, if you have nothing nice to say, say nothing at all.

I appreciate all of the hard work and the many forecasts from the FF Team. Keep up the great work....can't wait for the next storm.

ravensbbr said...

Yeah, HoCo, I disagree with BearCub's assesment as well...but do not tell him he can't speak his mind. This isn't kindergarten, and he's got a right to free speech and to say what's on his mind, same as you do.

Always being nice does not always equal being accurate. Hottest fire makes the strongest steel. Pretty sure FF can handle the dissent, at least, I hope so...

HoCoKTchr said...

Touché ravensbbr, I'm sure you are right. I just appreciate all of the students' hard work! I agree with free speech, but I guess I was just looking for some more civility! Especially now in these trying times!

Still hoping for a storm some time this year!!! LOL