Thursday, August 30, 2012

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In The Tropics, 
It Is "That Time."

2:00 PM EDT 8/30 (Forecaster Jason M.) Although the NHC is keeping #Isaac as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds, the main issue with the storm continues to be its slow movement and heavy rain. The center is about 25 miles southwest of Mo
nroe, LA. However, effects extend well away from the center:
  • The storm is moving north-northwest at 9 mph, and will increase in forward speed over the next couple days as the remnants head up the Mississippi Valley and towards the Ohio Valley. 
  • Numerous flash flood warnings are in effect in Mississippi, and many people have had to be rescued from their homes due to floodwaters in Louisiana. 
  • A Tornado Watch remains in effect for much of central and southern Mississippi, Northeast Louisiana, and much of Alabama until 4:00 PM CDT.  
  • Preliminary severe weather reports to the SPC during Isaac's arrival on the Gulf coast show 13 suspected tornadoes over the past 2 days.
HURRICANE KIRK: Far out in the Atlantic, Kirk has strengthened into a hurricane with 75 mph winds. The system is notably much smaller than Isaac ever was. Hurricane Kirk poses no threat to the U.S. or any other land mass at this time. 

ELSEWHERE: Meanwhile, Invest 98L became Tropical Depression #12 at 11AM EDT, and is now Tropical Storm Leslie. This storm is not expected to recurve quite as far as Kirk will, and we will be watching it closely.
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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Archive

A record of our multi-state team's collaborate on-site and 
tropical forecasting during 2012's Hurricane Isaac  


 Storm Surge reaching the coast in Biloxi, MS 
as captured by On-Site Forecaster Joey Krastel


 A forecast graphic published by the Tropical Team that 
was redistributed to thousands of readers across the Eastern U.S.

POST TIMELINE
10:15 AM EDT 8/25 (Forecaster Isaacs) A HURRICANE WARNING is in effect for the Florida Keys including the Day Tortugas, Florida Bay, and the West Coast of Florida from Bonita Beach Southward. For a direct look at local hazards to the region, visit this interactive link by the NWS Miami Office. We also have a dedicated on-site team posting regular updates to our South Florida & The Keys page in Facebook.  

As of the National Hurricane Center's 8 AM update, Tropical Storm Isaac only slightly weakened to 60 MPH winds after moving across the Southwestern Peninsula of Haiti. Currently, Tropical Storm Isaac is still moving Northwest at 14 MPH and has a minimum central pressure of 998 MB.




HURRICANE & EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENTS. Latest from the NWS & Key West Officials:
  • A local state of emergency for Monroe County has been declared. There will be three shelters opened at select Monroe County Schools starting at 2 PM. 
  • The Key West International Airport will stop commercial traffic this evening at 7 PM and it will last all day Sunday. 
  • All county offices, sheriff offices, schools, and county courts will be closed on Monday. City Buses will not be running on Sunday. 
  • The City of Key West Offices will be closed on Monday.
Monroe County Emergency Managament Officials are urging visitors to leave the Keys if they have the means to do so safely. For those that cannot...officials are directing them to stay inside during the storm.


12:00 PM 8/24/12 (Meteorologist Randall J.) The lastest NHC advisory has Tropical Storm Isaac is up to 60 mph winds with a minimum pressure of 1000 mb, moving WNW at 14 mph. What we know:
  • Deep convection is still trying to wrap around the center.  With most of the thunderstorm activity on it's southern half, this is good news for the island of Hispaniola, including Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 
  • This development may mean less rainfall impact to the island and less risk of mud
     slides. However at the same time, the mountains in Haiti will act like a sponge and work to "remove" as much as rain as possible from Isaac due to orographic lifting. 

ABOUT THE TRACK

  • The track continues to have Isaac enter the Eastern Gulf passing nearby Key West, if not directly over, then up towards the Florida Panhandle. 
  • All eyes from New Orleans to the Keys need to keep an eye on Isaac! 
WATCHES & WARNINGS
  • HURRICANE WATCH in effect for Haiti
  • TROPICAL STORM WARNING in effect for Dominican Republic, Haiti, Eastern Cuba, Central and Southern Bahamas including Cat Island, The Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador, The Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, The Inaguas, Mayaguana, & The Ragged Islands, and The Turks & Caicos. 

  • TROPICAL STORM WATCH in effect for Andros Island, Jamaica, Central Cuba. 

8:00 AM EDT 8/24/12 (Advisors Forrest & Foot) The morning update from our Tropical Team reported that as of the current NHC advisoryTropical Storm Isaac is a little stronger, as reported by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft. With maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH and a central pressure of 1000 mb, Isaac remains organizationally challenged, but a bit stronger. The 8 AM NHC update locates Isaac at 16.0N, 70.3 W, 175 miles SSW of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, headed W at 15 MPH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS
  • A Hurricane Watch is posted for Haiti.
  • A Tropical Storm Warning is posted for Dominican Republic, Haiti, portions of Cuba, Southeastern Bahamas, the Ragged Islands, Turks and Caicos Islands
  • A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of Cuba, Andros Islands and Central Bahamas, San Salvador and Jamaica
PROJECTED PATH AND IMPACTS OF ISAAC

  • A turn to the WNW is expected today and NW tonight. Isaac is forecast to come near or over Hispanola and over SE Cuba on Saturday. 
  • The effect of Isaac on Hispanola include 8-12 inches of rain, with up to 20 inches possible, with flooding and mud slides.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS

Tropical Depression Joyce is located at 16.9 N, 45.0 W, with winds of 35 MPH, moving to the NW at 14 MPH and a central pressure of 1008 mb, posing no threat to land at this time.


8:00 AM EDT 8/23/12  (Advisor Forrest)  Currently Tropical Storm Isaac is located at 15.4 N, 64.8W, moving to the W at 13 MPH, sustained winds of 40 MPH and a central pressure of 1003 mb. What we know:
  • Overnight, the center of Isaac was in the process of reforming more to the SW. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft early this morning found a poorly defined inner core, with a large area of light winds around it. Outflow patterns continue to be impressive. Sea surface temperatures are in the low 80's, which should help support development of Isaac.
  • The question of Isaac's direction continues to be an issue, particularly for those watching along the Florida coasts. While strengthening is forecast, Isaac's interaction with land mass, especially the mountainous terrain of Hispanola could well impact Isaac. Isaac is moving toward the W at 13 MPH, with a WNW direction predicted today, taking the storm toward the southern coast of the Dominican Republic.

5:00 AM EDT 8/23/12 (Advisor Ed C.) Tropical Storm Isaac is currently situated farther south than expected, at 15.3 North and 64.0 West and weaker with winds of 40 mph this morning. The storm is moving to the West at 12 mph with a central pressure of 1004 mb.

At last look, computer models have a wide range of solutions for the future track. So ... at this time the future track of Isaac remains uncertain for this reason and some influence from what was mentioned in our lead story. Florida, the Eastern Gulf coast and the Southeast Atlantic coastal states should continue to monitor Isaac. By the weekend, a better idea should emerge about Isaac's next steps.

CURRENT LIVE-LINKED SATELLITE IMAGERY
Enhanced Loop | Water Vapor | NOAA Wind/Wave



9:11 AM EDT 8/22/2012 (Forecaster Daniel & Advisor Forrest) TS Isaac is moving west at 19 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. As of the latest advisory, the NHC has Isaac about 211 miles east of Guadeloupe. 

  • Isaac's forecast track from the NHC (below) hasn't deviated much, but the ensembles trying to pinpoint his landfall (or lack thereof) have shifted by hundreds of miles in the past few days. 
  • As he slides closer to land, they are starting to come to a consensus (as much as multiple models can get to), with a Florida hit (early next week) seeming more likely by the day. 
  • Just where he'll hit is up in the air, but folks living in the Sunshine State need to be prepared to board up and possibly evacuate. At the present time, the Tropical Team thinks it's likely that Isaac will reach Cat 1, with an upgrade to Cat 2 possible depending on how the Caribbean Islands affect him.

There are Tropical Storm Warnings for Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe and the surrounding islands, Barbuda, Montserrat, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the Bristish Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands

There is a Hurricane Watch in effect for: Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands and the south coast of the Dominican Republic, westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic  southern border

If your county, state or organization would like to consider dedicated consulting services from our team during this event, contact us: clients@footsforecast.org. We're ready to work the storm with you.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

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Will History Repeat? 

Add Left: Katrina 8/29/2005. Right: Isaac: 8/29/2012 

"Bad Moon On The Rise"
- Credence Clearwater Revival. The lyrics are too appropriate for this storm.

Photo credit: Forecaster Joey at the Mississippi coast

11 AM EDT 8/29 (Forecaster Randall J.) Hurricane Isaac holds on to 75 mph winds, with a central pressure up to 972 mb. Isaac continues to skirt the marshy coastline of LA at 6 mph. Isaac's slow movement will continue to pound the Gulf coast piling up water in SE Louisiana, MS, AL, and over to the Panhandle. Heavy rainfalls over LA and MS will add on to the flooding concerns. 



The State of Louisiana Emergency Management has issued a list of roads they are tryi
ng to maintain and keep open, specifically for emergency use only. It is strongly recommended that if you are a resident, that you stay in your homes and not attempt to travel through Isaac. Click the link below for a list of roads still open.


5:30 AM EDT 8/29 (Tropical Advisor Ed & Mr. Foot) US Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports Hurricane Isaac made a second landfall west of Port Fourchon, Louisiana at 3:15 am EDT this morning. Isaac had been generally stationary for the past few hours, holding near Grand Isle Louisiana. As of this writing, the storm has begun moving once again to the West-Northwest at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were still 80 mph at 4:00 AM EDT and the storm is about 60 miles south-southwest of New Orleans. 


Tuesday afternoon water rise in a inland marsh area near Biloxi, MS
TIDE & STORM SURGE REPORTS. These were the latest figures as of 10 PM Tuesday night. Tide Station at the Mouth of the Mississippi was last reported at 4.54 feet as of 5:30 AM 8/29.



AREA STORM SURGE REPORTS AS OF 10 PM EDT TUESDAY 8/28

3.4' Mobile, AL
3.0' Pensacola, FL
4.4' Pascagoula, MS

6.2' Waveland, MS

6.2' Pilottown, LA


LAKE PONCHARTRAIN WATER LEVELS.
10:20 PM EDT 8/28/12 (Advisor Shundra Stewart) Earlier this evening, Isaac made landfall in Southeastern Louisiana as Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph. As of this writing, the storm is still a hurricane and is located 30 miles West-Southwest at the Mouth of Mississippi River and 75 miles South-Southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana. Sustained winds are still at 80 mph, but the central pressure is down to 968 mb. 


Isaac has slowed down a little, moving to the Northwest at 8 mph. The storm will continue this track for the next day or so and is expected to retain tropical characteristics while complete over land the next 24-48 hours. Dangerous storm surge and flooding will continue well into tomorrow night.
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Bayou Blues

Report earlier today from the beach in Biloxi, MS 
by Forecaster Joey Krastel

6:00 PM EDT 8/28 (Forecaster Nikki) #Isaac is finally getting better organized as it inches closer to Southeastern Louisiana. Flooding from storm surge and rainfall has commenced along the coast. According to the latest NHC advisory, the current location is 28.7 N 89.2 W about 30 miles SSW of the Mouth of the Mississippi River and about 105 miles SSE of New Orleans Louisiana. 


CURRENT INFORMATION: 
Current winds are 80 mph with a minimum central pressure of 975 mb. Isaac is moving NW at 8 mph, with a Northwestward motion expected over the next day or two. According to the forecast track, the center of Isaac should reach the coastline of Southeastern Louisiana this evening.
Some slight strengthening is possible before Isaac makes landfall with gradual weakening expected once it makes landfall.

HAZARDS & IMPACTS
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising water. The peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Projected surge in feet by region affected:

  • 6-12 FT Mississippi and SE Louisiana
  • 4-8 FT Alabama
  • 3-6 FT South-Central Louisiana
  • 3-6 FT Florida Panhandle
  • 2-4 FT Apalachee Bay
  • 1-3 FT Remainder of Florida West Coast

Isaac is expected to produce rainfall totals of 7-14 inches with higher amounts up to 20 inches, especially over much of Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, Southern Alabama, and the extreme Western Florida Panhandle. Lastly, tornadoes are possible along the Northern Gulf coast through this evening.


HURRICANE WARNINGS:
East of Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi Alabama border. Including Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.



HURRICANE WATCH:
Introcoastal City to Morgan City Louisiana



TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS:
The Mississippi-Alabama Border to Destin Florida
Morgan City to Cameron Louisiana 



TROPICAL STORM WATCH:
East of High Island Texas to just West of Cameron Louisiana.




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"Hello Hurricane"
- Title of 2009 single by alternative band SwitchFoot


Current satellite loop of Isaac as it approaches mouth of the Mississippi

1:00 PM EDT 8/28 (Forecaster Jason M.) Reports from Hurricane Hunters within the past hour indicated that sustained winds have reached at least 74 mph, and thus the NHC has upgraded it to a h urricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph along with minimum central pressure down to 975 mb. Forecaster Joey Krastel has an on-site report and video in our "Intercepting Isaac" page and is tweeting local reports from our Tropical twitter account @fftropicalzone. 

Graphic by Forecaster Josh O. of the Maryland Weather Center
Isaac is moving northwest at 10 mph, and may slow down further within the next 18 hours. The slow movement will allow for serious impacts to last for many hours in southern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle.

11:50 AM EDT 8/28 - Recent Reconnaissance Aircraft observations has found flight level wind gusts near 100 mph but surface winds remain just below hurricane level. Despite an improved structure on satellite, the Hurricane Hunters have not found continuous, sustained winds at the surface of the ocean at hurricane strength. 

This has prompted the NHC to maintain Isaac at Tropical Storm status as of the 11:00 AM Advisory. Maximum sustained winds are 70 mph. 

WHAT WE KNOW The storm is moving northwest at 10 mph and minimum central pressure remains at 976 mb. Landfall is not expected in Louisiana until tonight, so there is still time for Isaac to become a hurricane. 

Water just beginning to rise at 9:40 AM this morning in Biloxi. - Forecaster Joey

EXPECTED IMPACTS Significant storm surge is expected along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts, and rainfall amounts may exceed one foot in many locations. Damaging winds will also be a concern for areas along the coast. As a result, power outages will be a serious concern. Isaac remains a larger than normal tropical cyclone, and flooding rains will spread inland Wednesday.

ON-SITE REPORTS. In advance of the storm approaching, we have an on-site team reporting with Forecaster Joey Krastel in Biloxi, MS and Forecaster Rod Michal in Gulfport, MS. Details can be found in our "Intercepting Isaac" post.

Forecaster Joey Krastel in Biloxi, MS

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Intercepting Isaac in Mississippi



Photo from Reed Timmer, SevereStorm Studios in Biloxi, MS
Water levels beginning to rise slowly at the Beau Rivage Casino

LOCAL ON-SITE TEAM REPORTS IN FACEBOOK & TWITTER
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI | TROPICAL ZONE | @fftropicalzone


National Weather Service Forecast Graphics

10:30 AM EDT 8/28 (Advisor Forrest)  Despite the central pressure dropping now to 976 mb, maximum sustained winds remain at 70 MPH as of the 8 AM NHC Advisory.  Reconnaissance aircraft recently reported a flight level wind gust of 102 mph. Earlier this morning, a 71 MPH gust was recorded on a Chevron oil platform. The storm has slowed in its forward speed as expected, now moving to the NW at 7 MPH. 

Structurally, Isaac continues to show upper level outflow, a deepening central pressure, yet the central convection fluctuates, most likely due to dry air entrainment. ngthening is forecast, with Isaac likely to become a hurricane today. Tropical Storm winds extend out 205 miles from the center of Isaac. 

This report from August 26 by Meteorologist & Advisor Mike Mogil on Examiner.com two days ago outlined the potential impacts to the region. "Isaac growing and a growing threat to the central Gulf coast."





STORM SURGE:  If the storm comes in at high tide, the water could rise to the following levels in these locations as projected by the National Weather Service:

  • Southeast LA and MS: 6-12 feet
  • Coastal Alabama: 4-8 feet
  • South Central LA: 3-6 feet
  • Florida Panhandle: 3-6 feet
  • Florida West Coast, including Apalachee Bay: 1-3 feet

6:45 AM EDT 8/28 (Forecaster Isaacs & The Tropical Team) Foot's Forecast can report that Forecaster Joey Krastel of our Maryland Team arrived in Biloxi, Mississippi last night and will be leading our on-site reporting of Isaac's arrival along the northern Gulf coast. We will have a special "on-site" page where you can track Joey's latest videos, photos and first-hand accounts of the storm's impacts.

Monday 8/27 sunset in Mobile, AL by Forecaster Joey K.
As of the 5:00 AM NHC update, Isaac is still a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 MPH. The pressure has dropped to 979 MB and it is continuing on its NW course at 12 MPH. The path has not changed since the last advisory. Isaac is still forecast to make landfall around LA and MS Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Isaac could become a hurricane in the next 24 hours before it makes landfall.


Zones to be impacted by this projected path: Foot's Forecast | Central Mississippi 



Check back this morning for additional details on Joey's on-site report plan for today.


Monday, August 27, 2012

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Seven Years To The Day?
One New Orleans Levee, Then and Now

The repaired Industrial Canal Levee in the Lower Ninth Ward. Top image: As repaired in 2006, Bottom image: September 12, 2005. National Geographic Article, 10/8/2010 "In Katrina's Wake"

11:00 AM EDT 8/27/12 (Forecaster Jason M. and Mr. Foot) Tropical Storm Isaac is still battling dry air to its west, and maximum sustained winds remain at 65 mph as of the 11 AM NHC advisory. Strengthening is still expected later today, and the storm could reach hurricane strength by tonight if not sooner. What we know:
  • Isaac's current movement is towards the northwest at 14 mph. All those along the Louisiana and Mississippi coast are at risk for a direct hit late Tuesday into Wednesday. The date would be August 29, seven years to the day of Katrina's second landfall.
  • Tropical Storm to Hurricane force conditions could extend for a 24 hour period or greater in these areas.
IDEAS ON INTENSITY AND SPEED The storm may slow down some, which will prolong effects along the coast. The eventual intensity at landfall is still uncertain. The NHC is currently projecting it to be at category 1 intensity, but we cannot rule out Isaac being more intense. Even at Category 1 intensity, this will still be a high impact situation for southeastern Louisiana. Additional graphics and analysis imagery are available at our Tropical Zone on this website.


(This graphic shows the consensus track among several hurricane track models. As you can see, the highest confidence right now is for a landfall in LA)

NOT THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO? While Katrina was catastrophic by any measure, the real concern among some engineers and researchers is that Isaac represents a scenario that could rival a storm in the distant past that today would be even worse than Katrina. It was the 1812 Hurricane, uncovered through in-depth research by a Geographer at the University of South Carolina in this USC article. It is a study of history, culture, meteorology and geo-hazards all wrapped into one situation we hope does not repeat. 

Overnight satellite image of Isaac on 8/27/12
8 AM EDT 8/27/12 (Tropical Advisor Forrest) The 8 AM NHC update locates Isaac at 25.7N, 84.7 W or 360 miles SE of the Mississippi River, moving to the WNW at 14 MPH, with maximum sustained winds of 65 MPH and a central pressur
e of 988 mb. What we know:

  • The central pressure is slowly dropping, an indicator of strengthening, and Isaac is forecast to strengthen. 
  • Effects from Isaac will be felt throughout the Gulf region - rain and winds in FL, with a tornado watch posted for south and central FL - rising tides along the central Gulf coast. 
  • The NHC forecast has Isaac turning more to the NW and making landfall around the LA/MS border, but given the large size of this storm, a large area will be affected.



A HURRICANE WARNING is in effect for: East of Morgan City, LA to Destin, FL, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Intracoastal City to Morgan City, LA.




A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for the Florida peninsula from Ocean Reef southward on the East Coast and from Tarpon Springs southward on the west coast, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, East of Destin, FL to the Swanee River and from Intracoastal City to Morgan City, LA




PREPARE NOW. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion as safely as possible, as well as to heed local evacuation procedures. Areas south of I-10 and low lying areas from Alabama to LA are of particular concern for significant storm surge flooding likely to exceed 6 feet.

Sunday, August 26, 2012

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It's Not A Drill

  • FLOODING RAINS & TORNADO THREAT ACROSS FLORIDA. SOME AREAS TO SEE 10"+ OF RAIN NEXT 12 HOURS
  • IMPACTS OF ISAAC TO TEST $15 BILLION SEAWALL IMPROVEMENTS IN NEW ORLEANS & MISSISSIPPI RIVER




7:30 AM EDT 8/27 (Tropical Team) A regional roundup from our Forecasters and Meteorologists across the Florida Team: 

Meteorologist Megan Hodge from the Florida PanhandleThe path of Tropical Storm Isaac path remains uncertain and hurricane conditions could directly impact areas ranging from the western Louisiana coast to Pensacola, Florida. Local impacts are expected to begin Monday evening. 

  • Prepare for 7 to 10 inches of rain in the eastern half of the Panhandle and 10 to 14 inches in the western portion. 
  • Storm surge in coastal areas will also be a major concern...4 to 7 foot seas for most of the Gulf Coast, with the exception of the St. Mark's region where seas could reach between 5 and 8 feet.
Forecaster Matt Bolton of the Central Florida TeamIsaac has cleared the Keys, and is on his way into the Gulf of Mexico. Despite Isaac moving away from our coasts tomorrow, we're still expecting to see rain and gusty winds across the area. Localized flooding is also a big concern. We could also see a few isolated tornadoes through the early to mid morning hours.  Graphic by Forecaster Josh Owens of Maryland Weather Center.


Meteorologist Randall J. of the South Florida Team: Tropical Storm Isaac remains such, and has not yet strengthened to a Hurricane. Therefore, the Hurricane Warnings that were posted across South Florida & The Keys earlier have been discontinued. 

  • TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS remain up for all areas however. The tornado watch that was up has been discontinued as well. 
  • As Isaac continues to skirt past Key West, rain bands will continue to impact the Everglades and Naples. Miami and the Upper Keys are now getting into a weaker part of Isaac with less rain fall. Gusty winds 20-30 mph will continue though.

WIND GUST REPORTS: Some of the reported wind gusts so from the storm's passage. A far cry from the significant impacts of Katrina seven years ago and obviously a world different than Andrew twenty years previously.
  • Key West 70 mph, Virginia Key 66 mph, Port Everglades 64 mph
  • Boot Key 59 mph, Key Biscayne 58 mph, NWS Miami 60 mph,
  • Pompano Beach 60 mph, Fort Lauderdale 47 mph, Homestead 44 mph

Keep updated with Isaac on Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone as it continues its move into the Gulf.



Hurricane Warnings 




5:10 PM EDT 8/26 (Forecaster Jason I. ) Tropical Storm Isaac has still not strengthened and currently has maximum sustained winds of 60 MPH. The system is still moving to the WNW at 16 MPH and the central pressure is 992 MB. Following the projected path, Isaac should move away from the Florida Keys tonight and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. 

  • A HURRICANE WARNING has been issu
    ed from east of Morgan City, Louisiana to Destin, Florida. This includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
     
  • All HURRICANE WARNINGS for the state of Florida have been changed to TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. All residents along the Northern Gulf Coast should be monitoring Tropical Storm Isaac as it continues to head in that direction.




Projected Storm Surge Risks For Florida & Northern Gulf

2:05 PM EDT 8/26 (Forecaster Nikki) Isaac has not strengthened since the last update. As of the 2 PM Public Advisory, Winds are 60 mph with a minimum central pressure of 994 mb. Isaac is currently about 50 miles SSE of Key West Florida and about 75 miles NE of Havana Cuba. The present movement is WNW at 18mph, with a WNW to NW motion expected within the next 48 hours, with additional strengthening expected. 

  • The center of Isaac is forecast to move near or over the lower Florida Keys later today into tonight, and move into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday. 
  • Residents in the Cuba, Florida and the Northern Gulf Coast should continue watching the progress of Isaac closely and consider preliminary preparations in the event that warnings are posted for your area.

HURRICANE WARNINGS:
The Florida Keys, including The Dry Tortugas
The West Coast of Florida From Bonita Beach Southward to Ocean Reef
Florida Bay

HURRICANE WATCHES
:
East of Morgan City Louisiana to Indian Pass Florida, including Metropolitan New Orleans
Lake Pontchartrain

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS:
The Cuban Province of Villa Clara
The Northwestern Bahamas
The Florida East Coast from Sebastian Inlet Southward to Ocean Reef
Lake Okeechobee
The Florida West Coast and The Florida Panhandle from North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES:

The Cuban Provinces of Matanzas and Cienfuegos
The Florida East Coast North of Sebastian Inlet to Flagler Beach.





Is New Orleans Now At Risk?

7:18 AM EDT 8/26 (Forecaster Foot) According to the 5 AM NHC #Isaac advisory, Metropolitan New Orleans is NOT in current Hurricane Watch area, although the projected path has shifted toward the north-central Gulf. At last report, Isaac now has winds of 65 mph and is moving NW at 17 mph. 

Upper level steering currents, as shown on this image from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) shows a 45 knot west to east steering current in the Florida straits may be partially responsible for the continuing westerly shift of the track. Below is a graphical overview of the wind field, watches and warnings:




A HURRICANE WARNING remains in effect for coastal South Florida from Bonita Beach to Ocean Reef and Andros Islands in the Bahamas. 





A HURRICANE WATCH is now in effect from Indian Pass in the Florida Panhandle westward across northern Gulf to mouth of the Mississippi River. Metropolitan New Orleans is not in the Hurricane Watch. Hurricane conditions are possible in these areas as early as Tuesday night. Hurricane Watches are also in effect for the Florida East Coast from Golden Beach southward to Ocean Reef. 





LATEST NHC ADVISORY TEXT & GRAPHICS






CURRENT FLASH LOOP 



CIMSS