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The UnSung Heroes Of Sandy

7:15 PM EDT 10/30 (Mid-Atlantic Team) As some begin to assess the damage wreaked by Hurricane Sandy, still others remain in harm's way and are facing a long nights of continued danger. Before continuing with weather forecasting and analysis, the Foot's Forecast team would like to thank and recognize the countless unsung heroes of Sandy across the entire eastern U.S.

While many of us sheltered in place, hundred of thousands of people had to be rescued, evacuated or relocated away from expected impacts of the storm. It is easy to overlook  those silent workers in public safety, but their efforts do not go unnoticed or without gratitude. We convey our deepest appreciation and salute the many first responders, emergency management personnel, police, fire, National Guard, utility and transportation workers who have to work the storm for you, regardless of the weather forecast. 

We know the unsung heroes have lost many hours of sleep and there are many tiring days ahead, but we appreciate all you do for the entire community. We hope many of you can head home to get some rest very soon. For readers, we invite your stories of those who you know put in more than most of us will ever know in this storm.

(CEO Rich Foot & Mid-Atlantic Director Greg Jackson)

OUR HURRICANE SANDY REPORT ARCHIVE

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POST-STORM ANALYSES AND REPORTS


A FAILED LESSON IN SCIENCE: Had the New York City government shown they fully understood the dangers of storm surge, evacuations would have started days in advance of Sandy's arrival, once it became clear the Mid-Atlantic faced no escape. Instead, an over-focus on minute changes in storm track lulled politicians into a false sense of security, delaying evacuations and costing lives that could have been saved by heeding the long-planned recommendations of engineers, and better short term weather intelligence. Now we face a potentially long term humanitarian crisis the likes of which we have not seen since Katrina.  


WHAT WE SAID, AND WHEN, ABOUT HURRICANE SANDY


7:35 AM EDT 10/30 MID-ATLANTIC TEAM STATEMENT

LATEST OBSERVATION and PROJECTIONS
 
  • Technically speaking, Sandy is no longer a tropical cyclone, because it has transitioned to a more winter-time storm. 
  • However, the impacts will be identical as if it was still a Hurricane, because of the massive size, strong winds, and heavy downpours. 
  • Winds are still gusting to tropical storm force well away from the center. 
WIND-FIELD: Even though the storm is no longer scientifically speaking, a hurricane, you can see based on the graphic below that there is still a large area tropical storm force winds with gust of 40 mph+ along the Atlantic Coast and in New England.

RAINFALL: The storm center came ashore last night in New Jersey, but the rainfall is still going strong, especially in the SW quadrant of the storm. Many places have already seen a month's worth of rain, and more is on the way. Please visit this link for the latest radar image - http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast.php. Stay safe everyone. 


Working The Storm With You

influence Sandy is having on wind in the Eastern U.S.  

As our team continues with analysis and preparation for the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, we want to streamline your access to our latest information on this resource page. Specific information on:






  • Connecting to all our Mid-Atlantic Zones in Facebook
  • Quick access to official NOAA & NHC storm information
  • Direct links to State Emergency Management
  • Safety and preparedness checklists / Twitter links
    NWS Radar: Southeast | Northeast Midwest

    OFFICIAL STATEMENTS & NOAA LINKS
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    "Say It Isn't So..."
    - Hall and Oates (lyrics + YouTube video)

    A generalized overview of Sandy's rainfall potential 
    from the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

    8:00 AM EDT 10/27/2012  TEAM STATEMENT  With computer model solutions starting to converge, we can start looking at more specific impacts. As of the latest NHC advisory, Sandy has regained hurricane strength at 75 mph as it moves north-northeast at 10 mph.


    • INITIAL TIMING  – For the coastal Mid-Atlantic, winds will start to increase through the day on Sunday as Sandy’s extreme outer influences arrives. Rainfall rates should become heavier Sunday night through the day on Monday from the VA, MD and DE coast and into NJ. Inland winds and rain will significantly increase by late Monday into Tuesday, when the greatest impacts are expected for the entire Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  
    • TRACK & LANDFALL – Initially, Sandy is expected to be picked up by the westerlies and start a little NE. However, the blocking high in the north Atlantic will force Sandy to swing left back towards land. As far as landfall projections, we believe that the storm center will make landfall between the Delaware Bay and Long Island. With this storm though, the exact location of landfall is not as important because of the enormous size of the storm. 


    • WINDS – Because of how this storm is expected to interact with the trough and the windflow out of the NW, the winds in the southwest quadrant of the storm may actually be amplified. As a result, we believe sustained winds reaching tropical storm force (>39 mph) is possible by Monday afternoon for much of the Richmond to Washington and Baltimore metro areas, as shown in the graphic, with gusts possibly nearing or surpassing 50 mph well into Tuesday.

    • RAINFALL – With the slow movement and long duration of the storm, Sandy may be able to dump quite a bit of rain across the Mid-Atlantic. The best estimates now drop 6-12” of rainfall region-wide before the storm is completely finished. This may make for some significant flooding concerns in low lying areas, streams, and eventually the larger rivers. 


    • STORM SURGE – This is still the most uncertain area. Storm surge is often very difficult to predict, but our best estimate now is a surge of 2-3 feet on the west side of the Chesapeake Bay because of the full moon and the astronomical high tide, with surge estimates of 6 feet + for the Atlantic coastal areas. 


    • TEMPERATURES – With the strong rush of cold air on the back side of this system, temperatures are expected to plummet. Sunday’s highs look to be around the upper 50s to 60º. Monday’s temperatures may not get out of the 50s, and on Tuesday, we could struggle to hit 50º. 



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    "Is This Going To Hit Us?"
    - The President, from the 1998 film Armageddon


    to interact with the upper level trough and eastward moving cold front

    WORKING THE STORM WITH YOU 
    Rainfall Projections | Forecast Track | Model Projections



    6:30 AM EDT 10/27/2012  TEAM STATEMENT  With computer model solutions starting to converge, we can start looking at more specific impacts. As of 5:00 AM EDT, Sandy is just below hurricane strength at 70 mph as it moves north-northeast at 10 mph. 
    • TIMING – For the coastal Mid-Atlantic, rainfall chances will start to increase through the day on Sunday as Sandy’s extreme outer influence arrives. Rainfall rates may become heavier Sunday night through the day on Monday and into Monday night. Winds are expected to start getting breezy late on Sunday, but read ahead for the details on the winds. 

    UPDATED RISK ANALYSIS: HURRICANE SANDY

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    "She's Got The Look."
    - Roxette in the 1988 single (YouTube video)



    HISTORIC HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE
    FOR MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST

    9:50 AM EDT 10/26  MID-ATLANTIC TEAM STATEMENT: The 8 AM NHC advisory showed that Sandy decelerated further overnight. Sandy is now tracking NW at just 10 mph.

    • The storm's slower forward motion is increasing the likelihood that it will be captured farther south on the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
    • The US Global Forecast System ensemble members must continue to be accounted for in the forecast, despite other models showing more extreme solutions.
    • Sandy could still make landfall somewhere from the VA Capes to northern NJ
    • Our projection is that the Delmarva to southern NJ offers the highest probability at this time.

    7:15 AM EDT 10/26  The singer Roxette would agree that "She's Got The Look" seeing this this twitpic from NASA sent by Meteorologist Bob Ryan last night. If your frappuchino has not woken you up yet, then take a look at the 5:00 AM update by the National Hurricane Center. That'll froth your java, it sure did for us. 

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    A Stormy Pattern Ahead?
    Increasing likelihood of coastal and inland impacts to the 
    Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from a significant storm next week

    Several model projections have been showing a mean-looking 

    6:00 AM EDT 10/25 (Mid-Atlantic Team) You know the saying, "When it rains, it pours." In the weather forecasting business, we prefer to say, "When it rains, it's a monsoon." Even though Hurricane Sandy may over a thousand miles away, changes in the large scale atmospheric pattern are already beginning to take shape. The indicators our Long Range Team and meteorologists are watching suggest the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast may be increasingly facing very stormy weather in the 5-10 day period ahead. 

    WHAT ARE THE SCENARIOS? For the Mid-Atlantic, we have outlined two possible outcomes for the period Sunday into Monday of next week. There are still many factors at play which could keep either scenario from being realized. If you need an alternate look on what NOAA meteorologists are saying about this at the federal level, just glance at the first line of this link. For additional detailed analysis of our confidence interval and other specifics, please visit our STORM section.  

    Updated storm analysis from our Long Range Team

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    A Stormy Pattern Ahead?
    Increasing likelihood of coastal and inland impacts to the 
    Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from a significant storm next week


    Several model projections have been showing a mean-looking 
    post-Tropical system getting too close for comfort by Sunday


    8:00 PM EDT 10/24 (Mid-Atlantic Team) You know the saying, "When it rains, it pours." In the weather forecasting business, we prefer to say, "When it rains, it's a monsoon." Even though Hurricane Sandy may over a thousand miles away, changes in the large scale atmospheric pattern are already beginning to take shape. The indicators our Long Range Team and meteorologists are watching suggest the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast may be increasingly facing very stormy weather in the 5-10 day period ahead. 


    THE SHORT VERSION: What are the scenarios in consideration? For the Mid-Atlantic, here's what we are projecting as possible outcomes for the period Sunday into Tuesday of next week. There are still many factors at play which could keep either scenario from being realized. If you need an alternate look on what NOAA meteorologists are saying about this at the federal level, just glance at the first line of this link. 
    • Scenario A : Stormy along the coast, windy & rainy inland. Some remnants of Hurricane Sandy interact with an approaching upper level trough, pulling the energy toward the coast. Cold air working in from the trough, combined with tropical moisture, fuels the rapid development of a large coastal Low. Some beach erosion and tidal flooding would occur, but limited to the Atlantic coast.
    • Scenario B : Significant impacts both inland and along the coast. A considerable amount of tropical energy from the remnants of Sandy are incorporated into a developing Low projected to deepen along the Carolina coast by Saturday. As this Low gets pulled into the upper level trough, it explosively develops into a very large and extremely strong hurricane-like system. Winds of tropical storm to near hurricane force would impact a large area of the Eastern seaboard from southern New England to the Mid-Atlantic, including the I-95 corridor. 
    WHAT IS OUR CONFIDENCE ON THIS? An assessment of the large scale atmospheric pattern in motion right now points to three major factors that are affecting this forecast. An overview of our confidence on how these factors will play out:
    • The North Atlantic Oscillation: A large scale measure of air mass movement in the North Atlantic. When the NAO is negative (as it is currently), the effect of colder air pushing south from Canada can block a storm's "escape route" up the coast. Our confidence the NAO will remain negative? HIGH
    • The Upper Level Trough: Currently in the upper Midwest, this is expected to move toward the Mid-Atlantic and remain "negatively tilted" or angled from southeast to northwest. This is one of the most important factors that will affect the intensity of the storm, if it develops. Our confidence the trough will be involved? HIGH
    • The Path of Hurricane Sandy: We expect Sandy to move into the western Atlantic as projected by models and the NHC. However, in advance of that, energy and moisture from a large plume of "outflow" ahead of the hurricane may begin to interact with the approaching cold front and eventually the upper level trough. The more that interaction occurs, the more likely Scenario B will verify.  Our confidence in energy from Sandy being incorporated into the trough: MEDIUM
    NEXT STEPS? Our Mid-Atlantic Leadership Team in consult with our Tropical Team, will be holding a full collaboration this evening. Expect a late evening update on this page by 11:00 PM or sooner. (CEO Rich Foot & Mid-Atlantic Director Greg Jackson) 


    Earlier analyses on this storm below. 

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    Who Remembers Hazel? 
    Comparisons between the October 1954 major hurricane 
    and current observations about Hurricane Sandy 


    3:50 PM EDT 10/24/12 (Forecaster Mike & The Long Range Team) On October 15, 1954 one of the most powerful October hurricanes in history slammed into the Carolinas, charged through the Chesapeake Bay with winds of 90 mph and by the time it crossed Pennsylvania into Canada, was still the equivalent of a Category 1 Hurricane. This was Hurricane Hazel, and over 50 years later it is still a benchmark against which late season tropical systems are compared. 


    Believe it or not, some strong similarities exist between the historical setup of Hazel in the days prior to its landfall, and the current atmospheric pattern before us with Tropical Storm Sandy. Our team has conducted a detailed analysis of this comparison, as featured below. 

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    Heading Beyond Halloween


    An examination by our Long Range Team on how some computer model forecasts fared with the current pattern, and organizing ideas on how the upper level pattern may change heading into November.


    10:00 AM 10/24/12 (Long Range Forecast Coordinator Nic Roberson) "Snow on the pumpkin?" No my friends, if you're in the Mid-Atlantic, this is not a weather version of Jim Carrey's line Dumb & Dumber ("so you're saying there's chance ??"). While snow is possible for some areas in aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, we are focusing more on the long range pattern heading toward Halloween, and into November, as outlined below.

    THE BIG PICTURE FOR NORTH AMERICA. We'll start off with the U.S. Global Forecast System model (the GFS) Ensemble mean 2 meter surface temps (or what we would feel in terms of warmth or chill), for the period Oct 25 - November 1.

    • The GFS (US model) ensembles showed more warmth (compared to normal this time of year) over much of the eastern US (excluding the upper Mid West) 
    • This is due to ridging building over the central US. With the ridging over Alaska that would imply more surface Highs which in time will bring much colder temps into the North tier of the US which is what we see in the GFS ensembles (first image below) 


    HOW WELL WAS THE WARM UP FORECASTED? If we compare earlier projections from the European model against the GFS, we can see what the 850 millibar or 5000 foot level temps were forecasted to be for the current time period as shown below.


    • This supports what the GFS projected, and as such the warmup into the second half of October has verified fairly well for many in the east. The Canadian model is a bit warmer than both the GFS and EC in this time frame. 
    • It comes as no surprise that "Indian summer" like weather has arrived with temps in the central and Southern US with many highs around 80 and even 90s possible in parts of TX. 
    LOOKING BEYOND HALLOWEEN Further down the road to the last day of October into the first week of November, we can easily see a major pattern change taking shape. 


    In the wake of a possible coastal storm, both the GFS and the US Climate Forecast System (CFS) show that that markedly cooler air may settle in across much of the U.S. This is reflected i the current Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day temperature outlook:




    This model (CFS) has done pretty well in the longer range and with ridging starting to show up around Alaska later in the time frame, it's only a matter of time before much colder air moves into the US - setting the stage for our winter pattern.

    But that is another story we'll have to save for a different day!

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    Sandy Heading For The Beaches


    11:15 AM EDT 10/23/12 (Forecaster Jason M.) Even though we are in late October, the tropics are fairly active once again. We have Tropical Storm Sandy and Tropical Depression 19. TD 19 is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and will remain
     far out to sea. 


    Tropical Storm Sandy is of much greater concern. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph and the storm is moving north-northeast at 5 mph. 
    • Sandy is expected to move over or very near to Jamaica on Wednesday, and it could be near hurricane strength by that time. 
    • Thereafter, the storm could impact Cuba and the Bahamas. 
    • It is too early to tell whether or not this will have significant impacts to the U.S. However, at the very least there will be increased swells and an enhanced rip current threat for the Atlantic beaches by the weekend. 

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    Maryland Plus


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    THIS COLUMN MAY NOT BE UPDATED WITH REGULARITY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.  WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.


    2245 Sunday:
    SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR DELAWARE AND MARYLAND SHORE UNTIL MIDNIGHT

    Maryland

    Central Maryland   

    10:10 PM 6/16 (Forecaster Brett) - Hey Central Maryland! We had a beautiful day today other than some afternoon showers and the good news is that the nice weather is here to stay!
    TONIGHT - The clouds will hang around tonight and temperatures will drop into the low 70s. Winds SW at about 5 MPH.

    MONDAY - We will start off the work week with a fairly nice day as we will have partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s. Showers will be possible in the afternoon.

    MONDAY NIGHT -
    Showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the night. Lows in the mid 70s with winds SW at 5-10 MPH.

    TUESDAY -
    We will have partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower 80s on Tuesday. Thunderstorms will once again be possible in the afternoon.


    5:15 PM 6/16 (Forecaster Meagan) - Good Evening, Central Maryland, and Happy Father's Day to all of the Dads out there! Today was a great day for mini golf (as many of us missed the scattered showers), or maybe the movies if it was a little too muggy for you.

    TONIGHT: The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists for this evening, but we will clear out to partly cloudy skies overnight. Temperatures will fall to the mid 60s.

    MONDAY: A slight chance of scattered showers to start the day, with a higher chance in the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s. Monday evening will remain cloudy with another chance of showers and storms in the nighttime hours with lows returning to the mid 60s.

    Enjoy your evening!

    10:00 AM 6/16 (Forecaster Mike) – Happy Father’s Day to all of the dads out there! The weather today won’t be as nice as it was the last two days, but it also won’t be terrible on the bright side. We are in an unsettled pattern for the next three days, but just wait until after that when some beautiful weather will return!

    TODAY – It will be mostly cloudy with some breaks of sunshine throughout the day. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day but nothing too widespread and major is anticipated. Other than that it will be mild and humid with highs back into the mid 80s across the region.

    TONIGHT – A few more scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but lows will only fall into the mid 60s.

    MONDAY – We’ll be partly sunny to start off the new work week. Warm and humid conditions are likely again as highs return to the mid 80s. Additionally, some isolated thunderstorms may be possible, but again they won’t be too widespread.

    TUESDAY – Tuesday will likely be mostly cloudy again, but the precipitation forecast is iffy. A low pressure may track over the region, or miss us slightly. That would make a difference between heftier rainfall amounts, and just another day of some isolated thunderstorms.

    LOOKING AHEAD – After that passes through on Tuesday, we will have sunshine, comfortable temperatures and lower humidity returning after. Stay tuned and have a great day!




    Weather Statements


    Forecaster Joey -  My storm chase/videography/photography/report group, NimbusStorms, set out to Tornado Alley for some hands-on field experience and education outside the classroom. From around the country we join to experience, photograph, video, and report nature at it's best from tornadoes, severe storms, and hurricanes, to the most incredible sunsets. This year, we will head out for a 16 day chase trip around the Plains!

    Join us via:

    Twitter: @NimbusStorms
    Instagram: 'NimbusStorms'
    YouTube: www.youtube.com/NimbusStorms
    Our new Facebook page: www.facebook.com/NimbusStorms
    -----and I will also be relaying as much as possible here through Foot's!

    Have an awesome day and stay cool in this heat!



    We always welcome new members with special skills and talents to expand, anytime. I joined two years ago at the height of the Jan 26 2011 snow monsoon! Now I'm studying Atmospheric/Oceanic Science at UM College Park being able to stay involved here with the team. Just yesterday we had a great midday meeting of Maryland Team members to discuss new opportunities in the company (and to teach each other some collaboration games :-) )

    Not into forecasting? Not a problem! We welcome people of all backgrounds-- graphics, media, art, sports, public safety and more. The next cool thing is waiting for you to join and make it happen. Find out how you and a friend can make that difference to tens of thousands every day: Contact our Maryland Team leader, Forecaster Nikki (shown right) at maryland@footsforecast.org





    SUNDAY: Partly sunny with a chance an afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the lower 80s with light west winds.

    MONDAY: Mostly sunny with highs in the middle 80s with a slight chance of shower. Have a great day!
     

    Bayshore

    SMALL CRAFT STATEMENTS


    Forecaster Stephanie-

    SUNDAY: will be mostly sunny with possible thunderstorms during the day. Highs in the mid 80s with southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. The evening will be mostly cloudy with possible rain showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s with southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

    MONDAY:
    Partly sunny during the day with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s with west winds 5 to 10 mph. The evening will be mostly cloudy with possible thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s with light south winds around 5 mph.





    1045- 16 June- Advisor Brad

    HAPPY FATHER'S DAY!

    FATHER'S DAY- Chance of PM showers and thunderstorms. Sun, high low 80s, wind SW, 15 mph.

    FATHER'S NIGHT- Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Clouds, low in the upper 60s. Wind, SW, 12.

    MONDAY- Clouds, chance of showers and thunderstorms, some sun, high around 80°. SW winds at 10. 

    MONDAY NIGHT- Chance of showers and thunderstorms, clouds, low in the upper 60s.  Wind SW, 10.

    TUESDAY- Clouds, chance of showers and thunderstorms, perhaps 0.25".  High around 75°. S wind, 8.

    TUESDAY NIGHT- Chance of showers, clouds, low around 65°.

    DELAWARE COAST


    MARYLAND/VIRGINIA COASTS




    Sunset  03/20/13 at 126th Street bayside in Ocean City, MD.


    Photo: Sunset yesterday (03/20/13) from the OC Abbey Burger Bistro at 126th Street bayside in Ocean City, MD.



    Weather Statements- Wakefield (Maryland Shore)





    10:00 AM 6/16/13 | Forecaster Jason: 

    Good Sunday morning and Happy Father's Day! A warm and humid day is expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s. There will be a noticeable southwesterly breeze throughout the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the late afternoon and evening hours, so keep this in mind if you have outdoor activities planned for Dad.

    The chance for showers and storms will continue tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Warm and humid conditions will be with us through Tuesday. There will be chances for showers and storms through then with an enhanced probability on Tuesday. Drier conditions should move in Wednesday.

    To all the Dads out there, we hope you have 
    a wonderful Father's Day!




    16 June, Advisor Brad-

    HAPPY FATHER'S DAY!

    Sunday- Showers and thunderstorms likely, perhaps 0.25", highs around 70°.

    Sunday Night- Showers and thunderstorms early, perhaps 0.25".  Clouds, lows in the lower 60s.

    MONDAY-  Chance of showers and thunderstorms, some sun, highs in the mid 70s.

    MONDAY NIGHT-  Chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight.  Clouds, lows in the upper 50s.

    Weather Statements-West



    Virginia

    Northern Virginia

    Sunday: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Highs will be in the low 80s. Winds will be from the Southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

    Sunday Night: Mostly Cloudy skies with a chance of showers and storms mainly in the evening. Lows will be in the mid 60s. Winds will be from the Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

    Long Range: Monday and Tuesday we will continue to have a chance of showers and storms. Some of the storms could be strong to severe. We will keep you updated on that. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 80s with highs on Tuesday in the upper 70s. Lows on Monday Night will be in the mid 60s.