Tuesday, February 12, 2013


What DID we say about Winter 2012-13?
For a look back at original our projections from the Winter Stormcast Team, 

Current US / Canadian snowcover. 

10:30 AM EST 2/12/13 From the Winter Stormcast Team: If the Mid-Atlantic is going to see a final high impact winter event, it will need to occur in the next 10-15 days. Otherwise, increasing sun angle will negate many effects of a snowstorm at the surface in that region. However, current snowcover across New England and the Great Lakes can lay the groundwork for those areas to experience additional major events. 

We are examining the potential of the southern Plains system to set the stage for a possible final event in the East, and will report on that later this week.

DID WE REALLY PREDICT BELOW-NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR THIS WINTER? 
Visit this link for the unabridged look back about what we said for Winter 2012-13 as posted on this site for November 2, then restated on December 1-2.

30 comments:

ravensbbr said...

Agree. (Sigh.) :-P

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

DC metro area rain to snow little accumulation, and just north and west less than a slushy inch.

Baltimore City, 1 -2 inches of slushy snow. North of Towson to Bel Air north of Owings Mills 1-3. Hereford zone, North Carroll and Harford 2-3. Adams,York County to Lancaster 3-5 inches. There will be an isolated 6 inch total where banding sets up in elevation. Temps will be the key and if we can achieve cooling faster then the amounts south of the northern zones will tick up.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I still think BWI area will finish February with double digit snow fall totals. The pattern is that good! If it does not I will take my F grade into Spring with me!

BioPat said...

Well Andy, I do hope you are correct. If the moisture comes in there's no doubt we'll have some snow this weekend. I know chances diminish as we approach March, but that doesn't mean "stick a fork in it".

ravensbbr said...

Snow here in NE CC...not holding my breath for anything dramatic, but some is better than none...

Mike Cheuvront said...

snow here in manchester,md.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

moderate snow here everything covered with little over 1/2 inch on the ground.

BioPat said...

Catonsville is showing a steady snow with about 1/4 inch coverage at thi point. If it continues to snow through 3 am we'll have a few inches. No would that give us a late opening?? As wet as the snow is if temps stay below freezing I would bet on an extra 2 hour nap.

ravensbbr said...

Worst. Traffic. Ever.

Not enough snow to cancel work, just enough to mess everything up.

Hope you teachers enjoyed your two-hour nap, I spent mine in the car on the Beltway...

ravensbbr said...

Thoughts for the weekend's events? I'm decidedly...unsure.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Not impressive looking here at all. Maybe enough to cover the ground. This is another 1 to 3 event. Unless something drastic changes our eyes need to turn to next week as that is our best shot at real snow.

Mike Cheuvront said...

I have had it. Taking off Fri and Mon, headed to West Virginia. Timberline. Forecast 3-6 over the weekend. Better than nothing. At least I will see snow all around.Henry Margusity on Accu Weather.com in the blog section has a swath of snow this weekend of 3-6 thru central MD. LOL! Hope you guys get it!

BioPat said...

The school systems made another round of lousy decisions in not delaying the opening of schools today. 60 accidents in AA County alone not to mention Baltimore and Howard Counties. I understand there are new superintendents but today the ice was horrific, why not delay for two hours for safety's sake.

ravensbbr said...

Have fun skiing, Mike, at least you'll see snow.

Kinda think a snowy winter is like the Super Bowl...can't get there every year.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Before march 5th bwi will see 10 or more inches of snow. This weekend is nothing but just watch the next 15 days;-)

ravensbbr said...

Andy, not sure about ya'll to the NE of us, but northern Carroll is getting hammered right now. Fun.

ravensbbr said...

Solid inch of snow in the past hour. Radar is having trouble breaking out an accurate r/s line...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Just measured 2 1/2 inches on the ground and heavy snow! From a little earlier. We might finish with 4 or more at this rate.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/sets/72157632773555883/show/

Jeremy S. said...

How much longer is the snow going to last?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Until about 12:30

Jeremy S. said...

I'm in Reisterstown...so you're saying it goes till about 12:30 at this rate?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Easily with varying intensity of course. Check the radar, it is moving fairly slow.

ravensbbr said...

Andy, I think you could be right for next week.

Looks like all we need next week is that modeled merged L to slide further east and south a little earlier in the week. NAO is trending negative, cold air should be in place...

#ONEFORTHEROAD

#BEWARETHEIDESOFMARCH

#HASHTAGSARESO211:-)

Jeremy S. said...

Really, ravensbbr? Where do you see a snowstorm for MD next week?? I'm not disagreeing with you, I just want to know where you see the storm that could give us snow/ice.

ravensbbr said...

Jeremy, this is my quick hit link below for precip. There's many more in-depth, technical models out there online that are mostly beyond me, but here's a good starting place.

http://coolwx.com/ptype/

Cut and paste it into a browser, and look toward the end of next week, could be interesting...




ravensbbr said...

Jeremy, this is my go-to quick hit link below for precip. There's many more in-depth, technical models out there online that are mostly beyond me, but here's a good starting place.

http://coolwx.com/ptype/

Cut and paste it into a browser, and look toward the end of next week, could be interesting...


ravensbbr said...

Sorry for the 2x posting. Mr. Foot, bring back the old message board, please! :-)

Jeremy S. said...

I see an ice storm.

ravensbbr said...

As it stands now, 150-some hours out. Which in modelspeak, means it won't happen thataway. Gonna go left or right, up or down, degree of uncertainty in track this far out is what's in question. If it does happen to slide down and away (S&E), we here in MD will be on the "good" NW snowy side.

Or we could get clobbered by ice. :-)

Jeremy S. said...

Either way (ice or snow) I'd be fine with. I'm just looking for a snow day... unless the storm comes during the weekend. I'd prefer snow in that case.