Sunday, March 24, 2013

Did Fortune Favor The Bold? 
(You Decide! ;-)


8:20 AM EDT 3/25 (Winter Stomcast Team) Why bank on winter, when the best snow waits until Spring! Thanks to Forecaster Connor of our Maryland Team for the 4-panel of conditions from around the Mid-Atlantic.

WHAT HAPPENED? Despite our expectation that warm surfaces would hold back snow from accumulating, a stronger influence of dynamical cooling (where the storm manufactures its own cold air supply) produced heavy snow rates. The timing of this occured late at night when enough residual heat had escaped the surface. The result was that once snow began falling, the initial "pull down" of temperatures dynamically was helped further by evaporative cooling. As the snow falls, some evaporates and cools the surrounding air, thereby allowing for more snow to be produced over time, and reach the ground.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? As the sun rises, solar radiation will heat roads, making it more difficult for treated and paved surfaces to have accumulation. The September equivalent sun angle will help this, but the bigger issue will be visibility. Expect heavy wet snow to make for difficult driving conditions as temperatures will hover near or slightly above freezing for the next few hours.

The coastal low pressure center is starting to strengthen, then it will pull out Monday afternoon. Snowfall will continue across the region with some rain mixing in possible later, especially closer to the Bay. 

(Forecasters Mike N, Connor M., Meteorologist Alex D., Advisor Foot)



Audaces Fortuna Iuvat
(May Fortune Favor the Bold, Part 2)



5:15 PM 3/24 – TEAM STATEMENT #1 - As we close out this Palm Sunday and the first weekend of spring, another winter storm is approaching. 

The latest from the local National Weather Service offices in the region can be found at (www.erh.noaa.gov). 

There are a number of factors that could easily alter the outcome of this storm in the final hours. The result could be either a surprise early morning snowfall along the major metro areas-- or yet another under-performing event that leaves public safety officials, schools and parents alike wondering what happened to the forecast. Below we have outlined what we believe is the MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME, although a variety of factors outlined in each section could cause changes. 

A. I-95 CORRIDOR & CENTRAL MD: We think that easterly winds and warm temperatures will prevent a major snowstorm. This will force warm air onto the shore, and keep temperatures warm, and possibly forcing some regions from snow to rain during the day on Monday. 

Additionally, temperatures hovering at or just above freezing could result in a situation like March 6, where lots of snow falls, and barely anything sticks. 
For the area outlined in pink on the map, snow will mix with rain at times, and snow may have trouble sticking given the sun angle equivalent of mid-September. 
However, accumulations in this area may reach a slushy inch or two mainly on grassy/colder surfaces or side streets. 
Accumulations will be elevation dependent in that higher elevations will stand a much better chance of seeing snow, and sticking snow at that.
The one factor that could change this is when the wind shifts to be more northerly and northeasterly. If that occurs, cooler air from the Northeast could be pulling southward east of the Blue Ridge mountains. If this occurs early Monday morning, snow could begin to stick in areas along I-95.

If temperatures drop quickly or dip below freezing, especially before sunrise, it may be easier to get sticking snow in these areas. We believe it is MOST LIKELY that snow has trouble sticking. 

B. CENTRAL/WESTERN PA, WV, & WESTERN MD: If the storm accelerates and arrives sooner than we currently think, heavy precipitation may occur before sunrise, and before the high March sun angle has a chance to take effect.  Please visit the Three Rivers or Central Pennsylvania zones for local updates from those forecasters. This storm is very elevation dependent as well so the higher elevations could see more significant accumulations. 


C. MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS: This storm involves a transfer of energy from a primary low pressure system in the Ohio Valley to a coastal low offshore. 

If the secondary coastal low takes over sooner, and gets stronger than expected, then heavy precipitation rates could initiate dynamic cooling. The bigger impact on these areas, as noted earlier by our Surf & Sail Team, will be strong winds, 1-2 foot storm surge and heavy waves.
This could produce heavier "snow falling" allow more of it to stick, especially in the early morning hours of Monday. 
One thing to watch closely is the backside of the storm as it pulls out to sea. There is the potential for some bands to develop, which could drop some noteworthy accumulations on coastal areas like the Foot's Forecast | Northern Bayshore and Foot's Forecast | Central New Jersey, but it will again be difficult to stick after warm grounds with the sun angle. 

68 comments:

ravensbbr said...

I believe it would actually be conjugated as "Audentes" in Latin.

Because correcting people in a language that's been dead for about a 1000 years is very, very important.

j/k :-P

NeedaSnowday said...

HEY BBR!!!

Dumervil's deal reported includes a Signing Bonus of $7.5M and a 2013 base salary of $1M, for a $2.5M Cap number. Ravens will be $5.687M under Cap

WOOHOOO....

ravensbbr said...

Need, just got done with spring league pratice when I heard, it made my day.

Plus, I'm glad to know you understand the salary cap. It's beyond me how they figure that stuff out.

And apparently all the hot air out of DC has turned whatever precip is above us into vapor so far...

NeedaSnowday said...

BBR, Brian McFarland is my source! He is BRILLIANT on cap, but I do "get it"...

I AM AMPED UP.. so if it snowed - icing on the cake, but I AM NOT GETTING SUCKED IN!

BioPat said...

Ravens fans everywhere are celebrating indeed!

Unknown said...

Just started snowing here!

NeedaSnowday said...

YES WE ARE BP!! We just got a guy that had 4 times more sacks than Kruger for ohhh 5 million less!

TRUST IN OZ!!!

NeedaSnowday said...

Congrats Rachel!! Keep us posted!

Unknown said...

Unfortunately, I am not really sure what to expect. We are at 32 right now. Starting to lay on the deck, and the dog :)...but lawn is still clear.

BioPat said...

You are right, Trust in Oz; which I have been saying over and over the past few weeks. Now bring me those ruby slippers because I Do Believe!

(Hope that refers to snow too)

Unknown said...

Anyone with the latest? When the virga will end??

BioPat said...

According to JB, Annapolis and the Eastern Shore are seeing snowflakes at present. If that is the case the atmosphere should soon be moist enough to support snow in the Baltimore area.

NeedaSnowday said...

Flakes in Easton --- if you squint you can see 'em

http://www.chart.state.md.us/video/video.asp?feed=6d0027da0096007b00488436cf235d0a

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Heavy thump coming tonight. 12:00am to 6:00 should be a lot of fun. Enjoy the 4 to 8 inches.

Unknown said...

Andy, it seems as if nothing's reaching the ground unless your south of Baltimore. So...that should change soon? When do you say Baltimore County sees its first few flakes?

BioPat said...

Alright all, I'll be taking that phone to bed with me tonight so when we get our robocall at 5:30 tomorrow morning delaying or closing schools I won't wake everyone. Although I have yet to see a flake the temps are falling from their present 36 so I have every reason to believe by morning I'll be seeing a blanket of white outside my windows. In fact, this may be worth watching later this evening.

Julee said...

Just heard from a trusted source that a phalanx of four snow plows are lined up just by my school "up north."
Hmmmmmm.
Everything is ready for school tomorrow: lunch, clothes, jewelry, etc.
Que sera, sera.

... and so to bed ...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

The precip from the first batch was not our storm. The low that produced that batch will receive energy from the low moving into the Ohio Valley. One thing that I have observed is the upper level low is moving more slowly which is going to delay the transfer. We need a faster transfer so the heavy precip can fall at night or before 10:00 am because sun angle will kill accumulations. This time of year delayed is denied. I am optimistic that we all see accumulation but have to scale back based on a slower transfer. 2 to 4 from 4:00 am to 10:00 am with the heaviest rates at that time. After that it will fall but not accumulate.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

0z gfs gives us close to an inch of total qpf. Problem is half of that qpf falls after 10:00 and will be wasted. With the delayed transfer about 4 to 5 inches will be able to stick. Compaction and warmer surface will give us 2 to 4. The am commute will be slick with moderate to heavy snow falling.

Tina said...

Speedupspeedupspeedupspeedup

BioPat said...

I awoke at am to find no snow in Catonsville. Now 3 am still no snow, I guess we must be in that dry slot, hopefully we'll see some snow by 5am.

janbm said...

Husband said there was about an inch at 4:30 when he left for work. Coming down pretty good - in just an hour an a half we've got about 4" here in Middletown.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

FARTHER SE...A SEPARATE AREA OF UPLIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE
ACROSS NRN VA...CNTRL/ERN MD...DE...AND SRN NJ THROUGH LATE
MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ROUNDING
BASE OF THE ELONGATING UPR TROUGH. SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...BUT LOW-LVL THERMAL PROFILES
LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MOST
PARTS OF THE CSTL PLN...AND EVEN OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH RATES UP TO AND LOCALLY IN EXCESS
OF 1 IN/HR MAY...HOWEVER...OCCUR THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE OF NRN VA/MD AND S CNTRL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF SE PA...MD AND
VA JUST W AND NW OF PHILADELPHIA...BALTIMORE...AND DC. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE JET STREAK CONTINUES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

And the storm behaved largely as modeled. 4-8 was a good call based on the best model data. The key is we started to have heavy snow before dawn and this will lead to continued heavy accumulation through 10:00 am. The transfer seemed to have slowed down and that had me concerned that the best was after 10:00. It actually did not slow as bad as I feared. 4-8 seems to be the idea most models had and they have delivered.

NeedaSnowday said...

Elvis will be in the building... check
Snow, yes snow is falling... check
I got sucked in... check
2hour delay..... check
Now I am greedy and NeedaSnowday.. check!

Loosend said...

And the pigs flew Needa. LOL

ravensbbr said...

Anytime you wake up and look out to see what closely resembles the ice plant Hoth from the movie The Empire Strikes Back...it's going to be a good day :-)

Now to convince the kids that are jumping around that it's not actually Christmas time and, no, we didn't really miss summer...

BioPat said...

Great call Andy, it appears you may be right on the money! Baltimore and Howard County Schools are closed so an extra day off during this already shortened Holiday week is just wonderful! Now I'll look for the snow shovel in a few hours or maybe the blower.

BioPat said...

Needa, enjoy your day - it has been a long time coming, and glad you got sucked in - lol.

NeedaSnowday said...

All I gotta say is -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2hHeU2ejBM

BioPat said...

Needa, go back to bed! It is a most wonderful time of the year, but I'm having trouble looking at holly leaves and wrapped packages in the spring. I guess you'll need to make a spring version of the song "with daffodils blooming and birds gently nesting the tulips spring forth, in this most wonderful time of the year" or something like that!

ravensbbr said...

Getting thumped up here in the highlands. Andy's highlands are higher, can only imagine what he's getting.

Good 4"+ on the ground, maybe 3/10 mile vis, fun stuff...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Just under 5 inches here. I snow blew the driveway but it is recovered. My cars cannot get up the incline with the slush and heavy snow so I have to take off of work. Schools closed here. I think I can hit my 8 inches! Best snow in 2 years. Not a plow in sight.

Unknown said...

About 6 inches here in Annapolis! This Rocks!

Julee said...

Thank you birds.

Loosend said...

With all of the stickage on the power lines and trees, will there be any winds with the storm later? Not hearing much about possible power outages.

BioPat said...

My husband and I were just outside observing the number of wires hanging very low under the weight of this snow. Even without winds this could prove to be a problem.

ravensbbr said...

Andy, what are the odds of this thing retrograding a little and hooking around? Some of the models were leaning thataway initially...

Unknown said...

Arrived to my work area Annapolis to moderate snow and 32 degrees still at 915am. When I left Manchester in Carroll we had 4-5 inches already.Not a 1942 Storm but at least we got one! After the last storm I put the snow blower away. FIGURES! LOL

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

No worries about power. No wind to speak of in that regard. Trees have not leaved so very little in terms of tree problems.

BBR,

You will see some more redevelopment of precip as the low pivots. There could be some more intense bands as well. I have 6.2 inches with moderate snow still falling. There is some compaction going on and that will only increase, limiting the pile up factor. Reports of 7-8 inches around parts of Howard County already.

I see the potential for another 1-3

ravensbbr said...

Understood, Andy, thanks!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/sets/72157633084136861/show/

Pictures from Mount Andy in Barbarian land.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Moderate snow here. It is still sticking to the roads and they are awful back here, but not my driveway! 31 degree temps, March sun angle, and 25 pounds of calcium chloride will vaporize any flake.

ravensbbr said...

Pretty cool to see the two swirls of moisture from the dying low to the west and the low growing stronger to the east

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMapFullLegacy.aspx

set to N. America sat. view to see them...

ravensbbr said...

Going out to snowthrow...for the last time this year...I keep saying that...

Unknown said...

Looks to me like the snow is enhancing alittleon the radar. Temp in Annapolis 34 still snowing as I will be making my way home soon to snowy Manchester!

ravensbbr said...

Done snowthrowing...ended up being a slushfest on the drive...jammed that sucker up something good...again...NOW I'm done for the year.

Mike, check out

http://www.chart.state.md.us/video/video.asp?feed=a5ffabd8008200d30050fa36c4235c0a

Closest cam to us Highlanders...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

After 4:00 the snow should start to stick again as the sun angle drops. This would have been an 18 inch storm a month ago. It just keeps dumping. The evening could be slick.

ravensbbr said...

Sure enough, what looks like an eye is developing off of MD/DE on the sat view...

Andy, you think there's enough moisture west of the Susquehanna to keep the snow going? Looks to be breaking up a bit on radar...

NeedaSnowday said...

Nice pics Andy!!

Great storm! :)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Needy,

I knew you would like the Ravens flag! You got your snowday. I did not want one but had to take one. Could not get out of here this morning and the roads had 5 inches of snow and slush on them.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

BBR,

There will be more enhancement of precip this afternoon especially when the Upper Level Low comes through. If we can keep it going we could steal 2-4 more inches up in our hills. After 4:00 it will slowly start to stick. Compaction will be strong until 4:00 then the snow will start winning over the sun.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

We are past peak sun already, but it is nuclear until that 4:00 mark then slowly weakens. After 5:00 it is a dead man for our purposes.

BioPat said...

The "snain" is still coming down at a steady pace and I do expect it to switch back to more of a snowlike substance as the temps drop later this afternoon.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

BP,

It will go back to snow. I have moderate snow right now falling. It is keeping up with melting pretty well though. I expect more accumulations in about 2 hours up this way and around 6:30 pm your way.

NeedaSnowday said...

snow mixing in with rain again...

Julee said...

Tiny drizzle mixed with snow in Pikesville.

Is this ... snow/slurpee stuff going to FREEZE tonight??? THAT would be a mess tomorrow morning!

Julee said...

That snow that had devolved into snizzle has cranked up again! Falling straight down ... lots of flakes!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Another 1-3 this evening and 2-4 possible for us hillbillies (Mountain Williams for political correctness purposes)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Radar is filling in nice. The sun is weakening now and the snow vampire looms. Steady light snow here with moderate bursts. I feel accumulation getting ready to set back in. Don't need any garlic for my driveway, the Calcium Chloride will do.

Unknown said...

Still snowin nice here in Manchester,MD Andy.This is hilarious how the radar keeps filling in.

Julee said...

King Andrew,

MOUNTAIN WILLIAMS! That's what I used to call my sister when she moved to West Virginia!!!
Thanks for the extra flakey inches tonight! You are very close to my school district, perhaps there will be a late opening tomorrow morning?

Your pics are gorgeous!

NeedaSnowday said...

I am thinkin delay Julee....



...BLACK ICE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH ROADS WET FROM RECENT OR ONGOING PRECIPITATION... BLACK ICE IS EXPECTED TO FORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT UNTREATED ROADWAYS...PARTICULARLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...TO BE ICY THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Thanks Julee! Snow season is one of the few perks of living on a mountain and the views are generally decent when you go down the road to the part that has been deforested. Most of this township ranges from 800 ft up to 1100 so in marginal events it's snow and better rartios so it adds up a little. Outside of a dusting radar says we are done for the night. You may have your delay, conditions were awful here this morning and black ice might buy you an hour.

Julee said...

Snow King of the Mountain,

When one arises at 5:30, an hour is a gift! I'll take it!

BioPat said...

To all my Foot's friends; finally winter produced for us! I have enjoyed our online blog once again and thank each of you for your contributions. Andy, you're the best; really glad to have your expertise on board. Julee, Needa, and Ravens it's always a pleasure to share time with you all. And to our new friends, welcome!

Passover and Easter wishes abound for all!

Tina said...

What BioPat said...

ravensbbr said...

Au revoir to all of you, it ended on a high note! I'll check back next hurricane/snowstorm/earthquake, etc.

All the best to you all, God bless, stay safe!