Saturday, March 23, 2013

So, What's The Deal? 
(with this storm...)

9:25 PM EDT 3/23/13 (Winter Stormcast Team) If you're like Forecaster Christy-- and wondering what to expect for the upcoming "winter-like" storm moving across the country, here are some questions our team is investigating:
  • Will this storm be a "repeat bust" of the March 5th storm?
  • Even though it may be cold right now, will it be cold enough by Sunday night in which did see snow last time?
  • If the metro areas from Philadelphia to Washington remain in a northeasterly flow, will temperatures cool sufficiently before moisture is pulled away from the coast as the storm intensifies?
  • Is it possible for areas expecting rain Sunday afternoon and evening, with temperatures in the 40's, to receive accumulating snow overnight with lows in the lower 30's?
  • Could rapid intensification near the coast produce additional high impacts in areas that currently are not expecting significant effects?
Pennsylvania Team: 
Forecasters Andrew Barney, Zach Fasnacht, Christy Reuille, Amber Liggett
Maryland Team: 
Forecasters Mike Natoli, Advisor Rich Foot


BioPat said...

Well here we are early Palm Sunday, as Holy Week begins will we be waking to a dusting of snow tomorrow or almost a foot. By now, you'd think we'd have a handle on this, but not this year! In reviewing the available models the jury is still out and still ranging from a dusting to a foot.
For all you powder hounds, even if we do see that white stuff falling at great intensity, it will be that heavy wet stuff not anything even close to what we call a powder. For those of us in school this week, we could have a late opening or maybe a day off, or perhaps the school "snay" sayers will be a bot reluctant to make a decision after their last call, I guess we'll know come 5:30 am tomorrow. Nevertheless, I will be reading all the posts here today and enjoying an unexpected extension of our winter blog.

NeedaSnowday said...

BP... loved the dusting to a foot comment! It paints the perfect picture for this winter/spring!

Weather forecasters appear to be snakebit and I cant say I blame them!

We have a short week, so a delay would be great!

ravensbbr said...

Intellicast is probably one of the most snow-shy services out there.

So if they're comfortable with the following for NE Carroll...'s good enough for me. :-)

NeedaSnowday said...

Juleeeee... look at these lil birds in the SNOW.... .oO(thought to self.. move to Kansas?)

BioPat said...

Raven, just checked intellicast for 21228 and it's not as promising but still a concern. The forecast calling for heavy snow at times but the hourly still indicating a rain/snow mix. Watching the local WBAL forecast (1-3") yet the National forecast puts us in a band of 6-9", so I stick with my wait and see. Right now, I'm cold but need to get ready for Mass.

ravensbbr said...

BP, think the dividing line (again) could be the I-95 corridor. Joe Bastardi thinks I-70 north. I'm pretty stoked for the far reaches of the 21102 up here.

And if it busts (again), there may be a certain John Deere snowthrower for sale around here on the cheap. :-P

NeedaSnowday said...

Uhhh.... I forgot link

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

The NWS and many outlets are gun shy about advisories and warnings. I am under an advisory for 5-7 inches of snow. Here is there logic and they are staying conservative.

The NAM/GFS/gefs and sref all suggest the best potential for
snowfall over 6 inches or more of snow will be over the southern
tier of PA. The European model (ecmwf) and CMC are more conservative regarding
actual 12 hour totals...suggesting snowfall more in the advisory
category for much of the southern half or so of the forecast area.
Serious consideration was given to the recent dismal performance
of the NAM and its sref ensemble...leaning closer to a blend
between the GFS/gefs and the ECMWF/CMC. The wpc 2 day total of a
stripe of between .50" and .75" quantitative precipitation forecast over the far south seems
reasonable as well...all of which led ME to put out a warning for
my Laurel Highland counties where terrain should be able to
enhance amounts...and an expansive advisory further north and east.
If the coastal low manages to make a contribution similar to what
the latest GFS/gefs suggests...the warning may need to be expanded
east but I am not that confident at this range.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to
8 PM EDT Monday...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect from midnight
tonight to 8 PM EDT Monday.

* Locations... most of central Pennsylvania south of Interstate

* Hazard types... moderate to heavy snow.

* Accumulations... 3 to 6 inches of snow.

* Timing... snow will develop over the advisory area this
evening... and continue for much of Monday.

* Impacts... reduced visibility and poor driving on untreated or
un-plowed roadways.

* Winds... northeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Temperatures... in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I am increasingly confident that this will be our heaviest snow of the season by far. I think that we will soon see widespread WINTER STORM WARNINGS by this afternoon. The NWS is correct in being conservative considering climatology, but the BEST CASE SCENARIO which was the MOST UNLIKELY SCENARIO is unfolding.By noon time there will be WARNINGS for much of the area. I am in the 4-8 camp for Baltimore Metro.

Julee said...

JUST how it looked in the library courtyard on Friday (minus the snow!). A seed grabbing free-for-all!! Several teachers walked by the big glass door and commented on the plethora of birds. On normal days there is a "pecking order" where the big birds eat, then fly away and the little birds fly in for their turn. On Friday, everyone was there at once. Fascinating to watch. As always, two days ahead of the event.
On the big BIG snowstorms, the feeding frenzy lasts for two days before the event, so if we were going to get a "two-footer," they would have been there on Thursday as well.
Thanks for the site! Can't wait to see if the birds should have their own show on The Weather Channel.