Monday, March 18, 2013


Who's down for an early Spring warmup?

REPEATING 50-DAY PATTERN OF TROUGHS AND WARMUPS SINCE EARLY WINTER 
POINTS TO EARLY APRIL SURGE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN EASTERN U.S. 


3/18/2013 (Forecaster Nic Roberson and the Long Range Team) 

If you are ready to be "done" with the recurring cold spells, our team is with you on that! We have been looking down the road to pick out signs for what could lead to a nice warm up in the east toward late March and early April. We offer this analysis of the pattern going back from early December, and moving forward to present day. these indicators. 

(Image: 8-14 day temperature projections from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center) 
  • A DECEMBER START Using the "Lezak Recurring Cycle" hypothesis (LRC) helps us find a starting point to the seasonal trends, in this case we go back to Dec 10 2012 as shown below. This image   shows much above normal temps can be seen across a good portion of the south east US into the Mid Atlantic. 
  • A JANUARY REPEAT Going forward 51 days from that period brings us to Jan 30, 2013. Take notice of how the orientation of the upper level troughs in both situations led to more above normal temps in parts of the East -- for both mid December and end of January. 
  • WHAT IS NEXT? Going forward from late March into early April, we expect to see this trough arrangement to repeat once again, giving rise to another warm up ahead of it, propagating East with time. The warm spell will likely start in interior sections after Easter, and reach the coast by start of April. However, one area that may yet escape this warmth may be upper portions of the Northeast, which could still be under heavy snowcover by then. 

9 comments:

Tina said...

Just as long as "spring warm up" doesn't mean "summer heat wave nightmare", I'm all for it!!

ravensbbr said...

I give up. Trying to explain "virga" to self-important, know-it-all idiots is like, well, like trying to explain "virga" to self-important, know-it-all idiots.

I'm done.

Bring on the heat-waves. At least those don't tend to bust...

Unknown said...

One more go around this weekend my friend?

Tina said...

Good grief, the end of this winter is beginning to feel like rabies shots: the series seems never-ending.

ravensbbr said...

OK, Mike, one more for us Northern Carroll folks, but that's it! :-)

Actually, tonight is pretty. But apparently dangerous, the Manchester VFD siren hasn't stopped going off all night. Thought I heard Lineboro's too...

ravensbbr said...

Tina, I'll take your word for it re: rabies shots. That's on my un-bucket list. :-)

NeedaSnowday said...

rut-roh.. dont look now, but talk of storm March 25-26 surfacing... ha!

ravensbbr said...

Really, NAO? Now? Really?

Dang you, NAO! Dang you to HECK!!!

(cleaned up Charlton Heston doing his best weatherman impersonation...)

Unknown said...

Lookin dicey for Sunday into Monday. Close call for the winter that will not end. Sure hope this does not lead to a blazing hot summer.