Wednesday, December 11, 2013

(Snow) Party in the U.S.A.
- Miley Cyrus

Current US snowcover from the NOAA National Ice Center
5:00 AM 12/11 (Winter Stormcast Team) If you're realllly ready to rock on some potentially serious snow in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, your wildest dreams may come true in the next phase of this beast of a pattern.

There's majorly disturbing language* in the latest Extended Forecast Discussion from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Even more so than the snippets we have below, taken from our Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast page in Facebook from Tuesday night. Read at your own peril. 

(3:30 PM 12/10) Look, it's not like we actually enjoy multiple storms in a row (ok, maybe we do a little), but for Powderhounds, the fun has just begun. Check out this little ditty from our colleagues at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center's Extended Forecast Discussion as of 10:58 AM Tue 12/10. 

"THE POTENTIAL EXISTS... PARTICULARLY IF THE SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF [European Forecast Model] IS CORRECT...FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT...INCLUDING SNOW/ICE...TO IMPACT AREAS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...THE DETAILS OF WHICH REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME." 
From the Sterling NWS Forecast Discussion as of 2:32 PM Tue 12/10:
"A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM MID WEEK AND TRAVEL CLOSE TO THE GULF STATES BEFORE MAKING A TURN UP THE TN VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS TREND AND A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY."
"HIGH PRESSURE SET UP OVER MAINE SHOULD ACT AS A BLOCKING HIGH AND ESTABLISH A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO OVERNIGHT FRIDAY... HELPING KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOW FOR FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY. OVERALL PTYPE AND TIMING SPECIFICS ARE STILL IN QUESTION."
*Seriously disturbing language in meteorology includes the words "Major Storm" and "Northeast Corridor" when all included in one sentence. Check back later today for more details on this invigorating development (Well, it is for Powderhounds, at least.)

68 comments:

ravensbbr said...

OK, I'll be the first to be a skeptic who will be glad to be wrong...but I'm not seeing the aforementioned going down quite like that...yet.

#hopetobecorrected

Rich Foot said...

Skeptics welcome ravensbbr, it's the first step in becoming a quality scientist!

ravensbbr said...

Good to hear from you, Mr. Foot, always a pleasure. It's great that this part of the site is active, there are those of us for whatever reason cannot participate by Facebook, and the discussion here is a lot of fun and very informative.

I'll go out on a limb and speak for all of the local powderhounds that regularly participate on this site and extend a very hearty thanks for providing us a great place to do so.



BioPat said...

Hey Rich, great to hear from you!

I have to agree with the preliminary synopsis of pending events. After reading the NOAA statement and also taking a look at JB's ideas I'm right there with you that powderhounds could be in for a very merry weekend of events.

With pre-planning our road crews will be refreshed and ready to handle the worst of the possibilities well enough so as not to damage the school calendar too badly next week.

Tina said...

I'm sooo hoping my MD peeps get clobbered. I just hope it's cold enough and east enough that downstate DE gets walloped as well!

Rufus said...

Hey All. Sitting in Edinboro watching Lake Effect Flakes. It is a winter wonderland.

kyle farmer said...

on to the next one any thoughts for Saturday?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

This weekend is not looking snowy at all, but quite the contrary if the models are to be believed. I am not turning my back on this treat, but the precip appears to be very light and a rain snow mix for the cites. Things could change and Mr. Foot's and JB's idea are very solid. It's a threat, but time wil tell.

BioPat said...

Thanks Andy for your insight as well. Weather as a science is always so intriguing! We're just approaching the 72 hour mark so over the next 24 hours I believe more information produced will be a bit more reliable and give us a bit more to chew over.

Amy said...

Is this a nail biter or more of an outside chance? The likelihood of blocking.... is it the same likelihood as me coming up with a creative Elf on the Shelf idea at 5am? Knowing how I am pre-caffeine I'm going with skeptic on this one, but I love being proved wrong!

ravensbbr said...

Latest GFS run looks a little bit snowier to me, but still ends as freezing/rain and rain...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I'm not worried about the Mason Dixon crowd as I think we could eek out 3-6 inches depending on warm air advection etc. I hope some near the cities can get in on the fun before a changeover to rain and slop. The general trend is colder and snowier so I hope to see that continue in the overnight and noon runs. If I had to guess now I would say the range is 3-6 near the MD line, with an inch or less in the City of Baltimore and DC with up to 2 before the changeover in the intermediate burbs.

Tom Flanagan said...

looks like this storm is mainly new england. Its too bad. I really hope that the storm's bullseye shifts south

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Tom,

This is PA north storm. I am hoping it trends colder to involve Baltimore in the action. Areas near the Pa line will likely see plowable snow again.

NeedaSnowday said...

I don't like cold rain.....just sayin'

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Statement as of 9:08 PM EST on December 12, 2013

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from early Saturday morning through
late Saturday night...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from around dawn Saturday morning
through late Saturday night.

* Locations... central and north central Pennsylvania.

* Hazard types... snow.

* Accumulations... 5 to 8 inches of snow.

* Timing... snow will develop Saturday morning and taper off late
Saturday night.

* Impacts... hazardous travel on snow packed and slippery roads.

* Winds... east 5 to 10 mph with local gusts between 15 and 20 mph.

* Temperatures... in the lower to middle 20s.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is the potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel. For
the latest weather information... go to weather.Gov/ctp or stay
tuned to NOAA Weather Radio.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Winter storm watches issued early for central PA. That is one county to the north of York County. State College is likely waiting to see if the cold trend continues. If it does this watch will be extended to the counties that border MD. If you live on the MD border you have a good shot at a nice plowable event. Only question is how much do we mix? We need the trend to continue to get Baltimore involved in some slippery fun. I think points south of Baltimore are out of the game for anything more then snow showers changing to mix and rain. But you never know?

Mike Cheuvront said...

I have to agree with Andy. JB and his son's thoughts have shifted slightly more south lately. we are so close to some real fun. Tough when we have the cold air leaving just when precip is coming. It happens way too much!

Let's go powderhounds!

Tina said...

Hopefully, these are winter-storm trial runs... one of these times, the cold WILL stay and tons of moisture from the Gulf WILL come up!!

BioPat said...

Good Morning all!, I have read numerous posts regarding tomorrow's storm and it looks like Balto Metro area may get an inch or 2 of the white stuff, Andy I guess you'll be reving up that snow blower for a bit more action. I am thankful the storm won't be intrusive to Sunday and next weeks activities. However, there is still room for a slight shift; it will be interesting to watch over the next 24 hours.

ravensbbr said...

(use Shakespearian intonation when reading, i.e., King Lear-esque voice, maybe William Wallace...)

"Highlanders, unite and brace yourselves for the White Fury's latest onslaught! We shall not rest until we have vanquished the Frozen Precipitation from our castle's roads yet again! But, in fairness, let us pause for a moment and remember our Lowland Powderhound Clan brothers and sisters whom, it does not appear this time, will have any fun whatsoever....Ah well, sucks to be them! TO THE SNOWTHROWERS!"

:-P

ravensbbr said...

And to the teachers out there, yes, I do know that Billy S. did not write Braveheart. Although he would have had an interesting take on it from is perspective...

Mike Cheuvront said...

Ready in Manchester Ravensbbr. Stay thirsty for flakes my friends!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Winter Storm Watch Carroll and N Balto Co. For up to 5"!

Tina said...

"Stay thirsty for flakes my friends!"

There, the day's first laugh! Thanks, I needed that!!

BioPat said...

Ravensbbr, love your prose! I'm glad I shop online so I don't have to deal with panicked shoppers. With one flake on this Saturday pandemonium could prevail with the typical Baltimoron. I'm still looking for JB's maps and snowcall which he has promised to post later today.

Amy said...

Baltimoron- awesome play on words BioPat. My husband will love that one. Was planning on surprising him a date night for dinner and lights in Hampden Saturday. Should I reconsider?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Statement as of 11:32 AM EST on December 13, 2013


... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 5 am Saturday to 4 am EST
Sunday...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect from 5 am Saturday
to 4 am EST Sunday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... all of central Pennsylvania and the Susquehanna valley.

* Hazard types... heavy snow... possibly changing to sleet or
freezing rain Saturday night across the lower Susquehanna
valley.

* Accumulations... 5 to 8 inches of snow.

* Timing... light snow will begin across the region near sunrise
Saturday. Snow fall intensities will increase Saturday afternoon
and evening.

* Impacts... widespread hazardous travel due to snow covered roads
and reduced visibility can be expected.

* Winds... east 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Temperatures... in the 20s... to near 30 in the southeast.

* Visibilities... one to two miles Saturday morning decreasing to
under one mile Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Dangerous winter weather conditions are expected or occurring.
Use extreme caution if planning to travel. For the latest weather
information... go to weather.Gov/ctp or stay tuned to NOAA Weather
Radio.

Report snow and ice accumulation to the National Weather Service
State College by sending an email to ctp.Stormreports@noaa.Gov...
posting to the NWS State College facebook Page... or tweet
@nwsstatecollege with the hashtag #ctpwx.

ravensbbr said...

Thanks, BioPat! Sorry to our Southern friends, hopefully next time they'll be plenty for everyone.

Andy, thanks for the updates, how much warm air is entrained with this system and is there any hope of it staying all snow? GFS and NAM models don't seem to think so, but I trust the ANDY model :-)

ravensbbr said...

Mike, I'm hoping we are just high enough in elevation that it forgets to rain at the end, but (see above post) not hopeful...

NeedaSnowday said...

:: it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas!::

Love seeing all the Foot's folks gathering to chat!

ravensbbr said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ravensbbr said...

Now NWS is calling for 4-8" up here. Beats 3-5.

Tom Flanagan said...

Okay, so this storm seems to be northern. When do you guys think will be the next chance for snowfall in the areas south of Baltimore?

Tina said...

From the bit of reading I've done, we've got a coupla interesting rounds coming in a another week or so. Lordy, let it be. I'd forgotten what a cheap thrill storm-anticipation can be!!

Julee said...

I have something to say.
For the last two days, the birds at my feeder in Northern Baltimore county must have been coming from all over the east coast. There were dozens of birds at the feeder a llllllll day. I filled it three times both days. SOMETHING is going on!

Jeremy S. said...

You may be on to something...Justin Berk just posted this:"...but I do see this evening's air has lower dew points than models forecasted. That is important since it means the air is rather dry, and the first flakes tomorrow can enhanced cooling the column of air and lock in lower temps for a while...". Sometimes I think he's stretching for the positive, but maybe! He's still one of my favorite mets!

BioPat said...

Well, getting close to midnight and as the morning approaches I don't see more in the flakes for Baltimore. However, you folks up north enjoy your day! Did the grocery, dry cleaning and spirit store run this afternoon - OMG people were nuts; I was glad to get home!
perhaps this pattern will prevail through the end of the year, although the temperature rise tomorrow will be a welcome break.

Morpheus said...

Good Luck to all of you high lander Footers, 500ft to 1000 foot plus (Andy's Mountain. At 140 foot above sea level this one is not in the cards for me or us lowland Footies, But I am excited for you all and looking forward to the potential snow on the horizon. Just hope the cold pattern holds out for a bit. Cheers and happy flakes.

ravensbbr said...

Wondering if I spoke too soon...temps here at 6am look very very warm...I may have bragged on my northern locale too much..?

BioPat said...

Looks like the warm air is still in place I guessing Baltimore will get mostly rain as the storm is moving more to the north.

ravensbbr said...

well, at least we have another ice / snow / something storm to look forward to next weekend. Why can't these things hit on Mondays or maybe Wednesdays? ;-)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

For anyone near the Mason Dixon line or above it, the question is how much mixing will there be? Often the heaviest bands set up near the rain snow line. I'm expecting around 6 inches, but if this area is banded before a mix our totals could come close to 10. Such a frustrating gradient in this storm. I have seen it before in this region. I recall a system where we had 4 inches of snow where 7 miles down the road there was an inch and mix. Amazing what elevation and a tiny bit of latitude can do.

ravensbbr said...

Snow hole in effect? Radar seems to think so...

Mike Cheuvront said...

Horrible bust of a forecast for this storm.
Could see this happening last nite when so much of the energy was going north. Very disappointed.

Rufus said...

38 and holding Catonsville. Not a drop of anything.

ravensbbr said...

Not. Looking. Good.

#mayday

ravensbbr said...

The virga...the virga of it all...

Amy said...

Surprised to see flakes here in pasadena. Melting on contact so I hope they don't mess up my dinner plans tonight.

NeedaSnowday said...

It's beginning to snow here in Timonium! It's actually very pretty..... Definitely melting on contact...

ravensbbr said...

Finally laying in NE Carroll. Keeping an eye on the R/S line.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Pouring snow. 1/2 inch covers treated roads and driveway.

ravensbbr said...

Same here, Andy. But the Evil Green Line on yon 1500L NEXRAD picture creepeth ever closer. Any significant onvective cooling gonna happen, or not so much?

ravensbbr said...

*convective. Sorry. Not sure what "onvective" could be.

NeedaSnowday said...

Hmmm, perhaps one of Santa's reindeers? Ondasher, ondancer, onvective....

ravensbbr said...

LOL, Need! Well played, good sir, well played.

Julee said...

Loving the beauty of this fluffy white rain.
It has added up to about an inch or so here. Love when it coats the trees and shrubs.
After looking outside an hour ago, I lit all of my of candles and put on the Christmas music. Mixing up the cookie dough now.
What a difference this beautiful weather makes!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Sitting on Kohls parking lot in Westminster, Snowing hard.

Julee said...

My son told me that his car slid TWICE on his way home from work.

Some rain.

BioPat said...

It seems to have stopped snowing in Catonsville for the most part. The snow, when it arrived about 1:30, was those big beautiful flakes. My husband ran out to pick up a few things and got caught up in an accident on Rt 40 at Rolling, guess they were trying to beat the light to get into Double T. Anyway a short trip turned into a 90 minute excursion.
It's colder now but the sun is down so that's to be expected. How is everything up north I wonder? Guess we'll have to wait to hear from Andy.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

It's bad up here. Low visibility. 3 inches of fresh snow and still pouring snow. Death band incoming. I may have to hide in the basement!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/sets/72157638676038196/show

BioPat said...

Watching the Army - Navy game and it appears to have stopped snowing in Philly. I guess this storm will be pounding New England

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

These storms have certainly left their mark on isolated areas. My "community" (savage uncultured no mans land) seems to be cashing in on these events. Up here it has a lot to do with the topography, esp. the elevation.We stay colder and suck every last flake from the clouds. Remaining close to Baltimore, yet far enough away not to have the urban heat island and Bay effect, yet benefit from the coastal moisture feed. So far we have had 16 inches of snow this week counting the 3 fresh today. Remarkable for early December, even by our no mans land standards.

I am hungry for a big coastal that impacts the entire region so the coastal plain can get in on the action!

ravensbbr said...

Here at app. 900+ ft., haven't taken any measurements, but it's in the 3" range...should have measured before the rain started.

GO NAVY!!! BEAT ARMY!!!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Very hungry for that big daddy coastal storm to bomb out over the mid atlantic with banding moving east to west piling up 2-3 inch per hr.
Wife just woke me up.


WOW what a dream!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Only 3.5 total. Now frezzing drizzle 30 degrees.

ravensbbr said...

Mike, that would be awesome. Now we just need to figure out how to accomplish "Inception" for powerderhounds...

All rain here now. Hopefully out of here soon, get some pickup snow football and/or sledding in tomorrow afternoon. Love Monday night Ravens games, frees up Sunday afternoons big-time.

BioPat said...

Looks like things will be melting over the week and in the 50's next weekend! Somehow I don't think it will be quite up to the 50's but definitely a change. We'll have to take a look at the Christmas weeks forecast I'm sure someo places will be having a white Christmas but not sure we can put Baltimore in that group.
I agree Ravensbbr with no Raven's gene today we have put many plans in place after Mass. Love my annual trip to Kenilworth to see what Stebbins has on display and see if I can get close enough to the train garden and actually see all of it; usually that means a view from above.
Exams begin tomorrow for many of the Catholic high schools, gee I wonder if they'll actually study w/o a local game??