Sunday, December 8, 2013


Will it be enough?

Current ice projections by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center in College Park, MD Lightest green is one-hundredth to one-tenth (0.01" to 0.10") light green is one tenth to one-quarter (0.10" to 0.25") and the real ice jackpot is the dark green and blue, with amounts greater than one-quarter inch of ice by Monday AM.

7:00 AM EST 12/8 (Forecaster Foot) Old-timers to this site who have traditionally hailed from the education and public safety communities break into three groups:
  1. Teachers and students, who just want a snow day no matter what it takes, any time of the year. (Heck, last season they had to wait until AFTER winter ended to get 1 measly day.)
  2. Parents and emergency managers, who just want the straight scoop on what is happening when, where, how long and how bad. When big decisions are pending, they don't have time for philosophical weather fluff
  3. Administrators and office workers, who only have 1 question: "Will it be ENOUGH??" This is a critical question that indicates the true potential severity of the storm -- will the intensity, duration and type of precipitation impact the region to the extent that offices are also closed for administrators? 



For the Mid-Atlantic region, here is what our Winter Stormcast Team has prepared these answers to your questions, but in a word, our response is "YES." This map shows how we think the storm will play out over the region, as prepared by Forecaster Jason Isaacs:




TIMING & PRECIP TYPE: Start time will may be as early as 9 AM for some, but generally will be from 11 AM-3 PM for this region from south to north. Precipitation will initially be in the form of snow mixed with sleet. 
  • The transition to freezing rain will be from south to north as well beginning in the mid afternoon and covering most of the region by the evening. Finally the transition from freezing rain to plain rain will occur when surface temperatures break the freezing mark, occurring from SE to NW. 

ACCUMULATIONS:

  • I-95 and Metros: Coating-2” of snow/sleet, followed by a glaze-0.2” of ice
  • NW Suburbs & rural areas: 1-3” of snow/sleet followed by 0.2”-0.4” of ice 

IMPACTS: The ground has been relatively warm recently, so more accumulation will be initially on colder surfaces like grass, sidewalks, trees, etc. before the roads. 

  • By afternoon, travel could become hazardous, especially in the areas most affected by freezing rain. Keep an eye on temperatures specifically at your location because very small local variations will mean the difference between safe plain rain, and dangerous freezing rain. If it’s raining and the temperatures is near 32º or below, we recommend avoiding driving! 
  • Downed trees and power outages will develop overnight into Monday as ice amounts on limbs and power lines increases.
Conditions will improve as temperatures rise above freezing Sunday night into Monday. Most everyone in our region will see temperatures close to 40º on Monday with plain rain. 

MORE SNOW? There is a chance for a secondary wave of precipitation that could bring some light snow on Tuesday. We’ll be watching this closely as well, but we would like to get through this first storm before turning attention to that possibility. 

(Forecaster Mike | Collaborators: Forecasters Jason M, Emily, Connor)

113 comments:

HoCoKTchr said...

C'mon late opening! :) Great way to start the week! LOL

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

looking forward to some snow and 2-4 inches seem like a lock up here based on reliable guidance. I think 2 inches followed by solid icing is a good bet in the metro area. Whatever falls will stay around for the next 10 days as there is NO SUN ANGLE and we are going into the deep freeze. Plenty of snow chances this week starting with Tuesday again. Another 2-4 is possible, then more impulses on the horizon. We are heading into an active and snowy pattern. Hopefully we can cash in with a larger scale system, but there were be plenty of opportunities for light to moderate events that will have staying power. It will look like the holiday season after today!

Julee said...

Crazy snow here. I looked up about fifteen minutes ago and saw some flakes and NOW it has covered everything! Making up for last winter already!!!

NeedaSnowday said...

Same here in Timonium!

Well, err, uhm, Julee I guess we "jinxed" it, huh?
Not sure if anybody noticed but Mr. Foot had a drive by posting!

Winter has arrived!

NeedaSnowday said...

The birds are going crazy at my feeders ... Hmmm, what does that mean?

Julee said...

Needy:
**wink**wink**
Everyone has us to thank!!

Did see the Foot Flash! Good to see him still in the game.

HoCoKTchr said...

2" in Frederick already and the flakes are still flying! Wahoo! Birds flocking to nearby feeders and neighborhood kids out playing! It's beautiful! If you have to go out in the snow, drive carefully folks!

Leslie Evans said...

How are we doing? 4" in New Market! JB posted on FB that he expects at least double the orignal amount forecast. Yeah, we're having winter-finally!

NeedaSnowday said...

http://www.chart.state.md.us/MapNet/MapDOTNET.aspx?Browser=IE7&ViewName=Select&Cmd=switchtheme&tab=VideoAndCamera&DoPanTo=False&Direction=&PanFactor=&DoZoomScaleFactor=&x=&y=&Encoder=&timestamp=47921&x1=0&x2=0&y2=0&y1=0&gCenterLat=null&gCenterLon=null&gZoomLvl=null


varying amounts in region... but it is SNOWING!!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Forecast BUST!!!! LOL!!!! 8 inches and absolutely pouring snow here. Insane! I think I can eek out a foot judging by radar trends. My car is stuck nearby because it could not make it up the hill with about 5 inches of snow on the road then. I went to the grocery store and when I came out the sky opened up and there was an accident blocking the main road. Cut through a development and got stuck. What a surprise!

ravensbbr said...

Hour and change to makie it home from church...MSP and SHA reporting multiple crashes and incidents...and the most important of all...RAVENS UP 7-3!!! :-p

Amy said...

Any early odds for school tomorrow? HoCo has the love lye estern edge that sends the rest of the schools into a snow day even if it doesn't seem that bad. I'm happy with a late start.

HoCoKTchr said...

I'd love a late start! Then we don't have to make anything up! :) Looks like about 8 inches here in Frederick. Stopped now, and no freezing rain yet.... That ice would probably throw us into "closed" bc just too dangerous with the buses....hope everyone is safe on the way home from the Ravens game!

wvm said...

ok, not sure why my comments will not post. Just checking in: Berkeley County,WV has about 7 inches and it looks like it has taken a break. temp is 24. Wow quite a bit more than the 1 to 3 that we were to get before it changes to ice. I hope this means more snow and less ice.
wvmommyof5

December 8, 2013 at 2:09 PM

wvm said...

actually 8 inches now and freezing rain has started. This is going to be a mess !!!
WVMOMMMYOF5

mayawild said...

Its looking very white out there! But someone out there give me some hope... Will there be a delayed -or better yet - no opening for Baltimore City Public Schools?

NeedaSnowday said...

RAVENS = CARDIAC KIDS......

Holy smokes..... changing my name to NeedaEasyGame!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I measured out in a couple of spots. We actually finished with 7 inches. Spotters had reports of 7.5 in Parkton nearby. Now freezing drizzle. What is amazing is most of that 7 inches fell in 2 hours. That was one intense band of snow. I hate freezing rain! What a Ravens win today! That game was tougher than this forecast.

NeedaSnowday said...

Harford county closed tomorrow...

NeedaSnowday said...

Add Carroll County to the list of school closings

ravensbbr said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ravensbbr said...

No word yet on gov't folks...

Jeremy S. said...

BCPS: Two hour delay...Hmm...

BioPat said...

BCPS 2 hour delay, but I'll bet they re-evaluate in the morning. IF we get 1/2 inch of freezing rain on this, nothing will be moving for awhile tomorrow; not to mention potential power failures with trees and lines down. I am sure HoCo will close, just waiting until closer to 11.

BTW, hello all, and welcome to Winter 2014! I've been busy all day and had to make a 3:00 drive to Under Armour at Swann Creek to pick up my daughter. We just decided this was not a good day for her to be on the road without the benefit of additional traction. It was a slow but uneventful drive, roads were not good.

NeedaSnowday said...

here is statement from HoWeird County

Weather: Monitoring Road Conditions

We're monitoring road conditions through the night and a decision will be made regarding the start of school by 5:30 am.

Leslie said...

C'mon HoCo. Wouldn't it just be easier to make the call tonight and get some sleep!

Cathy in BelAir said...

I was at the Ravens game today and it was awesome sitting there in practically a White Out! It was wild. But thanks to FF and all of you, we knew what to expect, and were prepared. I read several weather sites and blogs, but I always trust and enjoy following Andy and the group here. Makes me look foreword to winter weather. Keep up the good work.

Alex L said...

I could be way off but has our forecast for freezing rain overnight decreased substantially? Hardly anything coming down in Ellicott City at 11:20. Is this just a lull or is that it for this storm? By no means am I hoping for dangerous situations, but having an excuse to go to work late tomorrow would be quite nice.

BioPat said...

HoCo CLOSED!! Enjoy Needa! Balto Co closed as well!

HoCoKTchr said...

But Balto Co says staff report 2 hours late....how will that work for making up the day in June? Crazy! Can't pay them twice! Hmmmm....I was hoping for 2 hours late, but better safe than sorry. The December me loves it, but the June me will hate it! LOL

Amy said...

Wish HoCo would have called it a little sooner since high school teachers were up and getting ready to head out the door. Many of us leave by 5:30 and late announcements put us in jeopardy. Luckily I was refreshing the web page as I was making lunches. Western hoco was a mess so they should have known that alone would keep us from coming in today. I feel bad for parents who have to make arrangements for child care. Everyone needs time.

Amy said...

Wish HoCo would have called it a little sooner since high school teachers were up and getting ready to head out the door. Many of us leave by 5:30 and late announcements put us in jeopardy. Luckily I was refreshing the web page as I was making lunches. Western hoco was a mess so they should have known that alone would keep us from coming in today. I feel bad for parents who have to make arrangements for child care. Everyone needs time.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

High probability of 2-4 inches of more snow with isolated totals of 6 inches Tuesday afternoon. Commute home should be "fun". Start time appears to be around lunch, and it could come down heavy at times.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS BALT WASH DISCO
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/...
an upper trough shifts east over the Great Lakes tonight into
Tuesday...finally breaking the pattern of a Gulf plume stretching
up the Appalachians with a Canadian high pressure bringing cold
air and frontogenesis to the mid-Atlantic. One final cold front
comes through the region late tonight through midday Tuesday. The
cold front tightens under a strong southwesterly jet allowing banded precipitation
to develop. With overnight/morning timeframe...expect this to be
mainly snow...with some accumulations essentially across the County Warning Area.
Increased probability of precipitation through this time and added up to an inch of snow
across central portions of the County Warning Area. The general location of this
band at its most intense stage remains to be seen. Local snow
amounts exceeding an inch...warranting an advisory is a possible
scenario. Hopefully model consensus will be improved through the
forecast cycles today. As of 00z the European model (ecmwf) is still not on
board...shunting most precipitation south of the lwx County Warning Area. Temperatures
through the event look to be low to middle 30s

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

GFS is the most aggressive with this system and all models are trending increasingly wet. I think LWX will issue Advisories for the area for 2-4 inches of snow by this afternoon for Tuesday afternoon. They will want to see the 12Z model runs. Timing looks bad for the afternoon rush. Interesting to see how this turns out. The trend lately is been for these systems be they rain or snow to be wetter than modeled, and if that does happen the commute for Tuesday afternoon will be very nasty.

Jeremy S. said...

How late Tuesday afternoon? If it's during the school day, many counties could release students early...except the private school I go to. The principle's never released us early. It once snowed about two inches and iced and no one was released. We slid all the way back home (the trip took us two hours; usually is 30 minutes). Now she gave us a two hour delay. I'm living in a spot that received 7" yesterday....Just wanted to vent...

ravensbbr said...

And...Part Deux tomorrow!!!

NeedaSnowday said...

BRING IT!!!!!! I think we deserve a BIG KAHUNA this winter!
:)

ravensbbr said...

Couldn't agree more, Need. Give me something to challenge the John Deere. (And by challenge, I mean 18+ of fluff, not 8 inches of bulletproof.)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Statement as of 10:09 AM EST on December 09, 2013


... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late tonight through Tuesday
afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from late
tonight through Tuesday afternoon.

* Precipitation type... potential for heavy snow. The precipitation
may start as a period of sleet... especially south of Interstate
66 in Virginia... the District of Columbia... and U.S. Route 50 in
Maryland.

* Accumulations... potential for five inches or more of snow.

* Timing... near dawn Tuesday through early Tuesday afternoon... including
the Tuesday morning rush hour.

* Temperatures... upper 20s and lower 30s.

* Winds... north 5 to 10 mph.

* Impacts... hazardous travel conditions are probable due to
accumulating snow... which will cause adverse traveling
conditions. The snow will likely impact the morning rush Tuesday
with the potential for accumulation rates of 1-2 inches per hour
for a two-to-four hour period from daybreak to mid-to-late
morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

4-8 inches with 2 inch per hour rates possible from 6:00 am-12:00. Someone might here a crack of thunder!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Hear, not here, a crack of thunder! LOL!

ravensbbr said...

Andy, betcha us Northern Yetis will get closer to 10 then 8 tomorrow. Seems like that band is gonna set up right overhead.

Thundersnow is cool. Heard it once before back in 2010. Thought it was the snowplow hitting something down on the county road...

BioPat said...

Hello Andy, great to read your thoughts once again! Tomorrow should be interesting with the heavy snow potential and refreezing of all the slop now on the side roads. I do not think it will melt quite enough to diminish the possibility of a 2 hour late opening with a re-evaluation based on what is dropping from the clouds tomorrow. Although I am enjoying the time off, I'm also a bit concerned as the MSJ students have exams next week.

Amy said...

Based on timing BioPat, you don't think it will be an outright cancellation? I'm thinking that's where we are headed if the snow shows up before a decision needs to be made in the AM

ravensbbr said...

Over/unders for max snowfall for Part Deux in Central MD/Southern PA? Closest to the pin wins the grand prize of...absolutely nothing but the undying admiration of your fellow amatuer powderhounds.

And we all know Andy will win, but I'll hazard a guess of 9.5" close to Andy and I, right near the Mason/Dixon Line.

Thoughts/guesses/postulations?(last one thrown in there for the teachers :-P




Jeremy S. said...

What would the ratio be for this storm? I heard 15:1 somewhere. That would mean 7.5" for .5" of precip!

Jeremy S. said...

What would the ratio be for this storm? I heard 15:1 somewhere. That would mean 7.5" for .5" of precip!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Ratio I would guess in the metro 12:1 out in the boonies 15:1.

I suspect we will have a WINTER STORM WARNING upgrade around 11:00 pm. The dynamics here are potent and the model trends increased QPF. QPF may verify higher than modeled. That has been the trend with the last few events, and this one keeps coming in wetter. With dynamics I can see an isolated 10 inch total somewhere in central MD. Plan on 4-8 inches generally region wide. Where the convective banding sets up will dictate anomalous totals. Not clear exactly where that will be.

Jeremy S. said...

About the banding for this storm....Are the places that got high amounts yesterday at risk to be victims of banding again?

NeedaSnowday said...

JULEEEEE!!

:::dusting off hands::: Girl, look what we did!

Ha!

Andy.. I dont think I have enough Manwich for 8+ inches! Should I head to the store now??

kyle farmer said...

Justin berk says heaviest snow a little south any thoughts it changed on the sunday storm when it showed it south also but verified north.

NeedaSnowday said...

Harford county two hour delay... Yup already!

BioPat said...

Looks like another evening, I'm just not going to lay out my clothes! I'm ready, bring it on but am hoping Balto County will make a 2 hour late call this evening as proactive Harford County has already done. Guess we'll have to wait until closer to 11 pm.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 3 am to 2 PM EST Tuesday...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Storm Warning for snow... which is in effect from
3 am to 2 PM EST Tuesday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer
in effect.

* Precipitation type... snow... heavy at times. Precipitation may
start as a period of snow and sleet before dawn changing to all
snow after daybreak.

* Accumulations... 3 to 6 inches.

* Timing... around daybreak Tuesday lasting through early Tuesday
afternoon... including the Tuesday morning rush hour.

* Temperatures... upper 20s to lower 30s.

* Winds... northwest 5 to 10 mph.

* Impacts... hazardous travel conditions are expected from heavy
snow. The snow will impact the morning rush Tuesday with the
potential for accumulation rates of 1-2 inches per hour.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions
are expected. Significant amounts of snow will make travel hazardous.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Right on schedule for the 11:00 news. Kyle, The precip shield tends to always be more expansive than modeled. Convective banding is impossible to predict as to where it will set up exactly. That is a guessing game. If you like heavy snow you will have it! Isolated totals will hit 10 inches in our area. But 6-8 will be more common when you average things out,

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Merry Christmas from Dixie. The radar is lighting up like a Christmas tree.

ravensbbr said...

Thanks for the scoop, Andy! Appreciated as always!

kyle farmer said...

Ok and would thunder snow be a possibility as you stated its lighting up down south, sounds like no school in harford.

BioPat said...

Liking what I'm reading! It's interesting that these two storms follow each other so closely. I wonder what pattern will prevail in the transitioning from La Ninia to El Nino or whichever way it is wobbling at this point.

Anonymous said...

60 comments!! woah let me get the cocoa Andy must have the manwich out

Julie

NeedaSnowday said...

Amy don't look....

HoCo statement: We will be monitoring road conditions throughout the night and a decision will be made regarding the start of school by 5:15 am.

Tina said...

I'll bet whoever made the decision to monitor the roads all night long AIN'T the same person(s) doing it. :(

Anonymous said...

I wish they let you link facebook to comment this wordpress thing is annoying. I typed 4 times...

I really am afraid if I go to sleep I will wake up to not a flake!

Amy said...

Don't worry "Need", I've looked and I've cursed them. So help me if they call us in only to get buried in snow during the day I'm gonna be ticked. I swear they are waiting for flakes to hit the ground.

Morpheus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Morpheus said...

Finally a storm is brewing that looks to be lining up to hit Bowie and Towson! Home and work!!

Julee said...

NEEEEEEEEDEEEEEEE!

***blush***

Holy Juncos!
Hope my library courtyard birds make it through. I had my boys "double feed" them on Friday. NEVER thought we would get THIS much snow!!!
LOVED watching it falling yesterday.
Hope we get to watch it again tomorrow!

janbm said...

I haven't commented here since I first found the site during the big blizzards a few years ago. I do so enjoy the repartee between BioPat, NeedaSnowday, ravensbbr,Julee,and Andy. I was so dissapointed last year when we had no winter to speak of because I missed their entertaining comments and speculations. Andy does a fantastic job of explaining the scientific side of things and I enjoy the friendly banter between you all. Foots Forecast rocks and you all make it even more entertaing. Just have to say that I have had a blast watching my bird friends act like the folks at Safeway buying TP and bread - fighting over the last possible supplies for Armeggendon.

Morpheus said...

With just a coating from yesterdays snow, which was completely gone today... you can understand why I am excited by this one. Where are the rest of the central Marylanders? South of 50 Footers???

NeedaSnowday said...

AMY!!! All Howard County public schools are closed today, Tues., Dec. 10. Administrative offices are open...

NeedaSnowday said...

add Balt Co, Mont Co & PG!

NeedaSnowday said...

Anne Arundel sleeping in too......

HoCoKTchr said...

Snowing hard in Frederick... Bring it on! The December me loves this...the June me will hate it! LOL!

ravensbbr said...

Welcome, janbm, enjoy the madness! :)

Amy said...

Need- I'm so happy!!!,, except I'm the one person who probably ran out of milk. Will hit the store when they open in 10 min. Still think we all could have gone to bed with then essay 5am school closets check.

Bring on the snow. I got snow pants and boots for the boy. Please let 3-6 be conservative!!!

Amy said...

Oh how I've missed our happy little gang over the past two busts of a winter.

ravensbbr said...

Coming down now steady here in NE Carroll. State gov LL, and as usual, feds are closed.

will be trying a new thing ethenol free blend with Mr. JohnDeere today...results may vary, the gas station guy said yesterday. hopefully, varied results includes better performance and less water absorption and does NOT include blowing out the carb/manifold Back to The Future III style. (old movie ref, apologies to anyone under 30)

should work better as the things were designed to run on actual gasoline and not the politically correct crap blend. We'll see.

Anonymous said...

Cantore is here!!! snow yippie its sleeting in glen burnie

Julie aka smittywa

ravensbbr said...

CCSO and MSP reporting many, many stuck and now stranded vehicles as well as now emergency vehicles getting stuck. I'm not one to tell people what to do, but draw your own conclusions here...

ravensbbr said...

Also, MD CHART traffic cams are public access, you can find them here

http://www.chart.state.md.us/MapNet/MapDOTNET.aspx?Browser=IE7&ViewName=Select&Cmd=switchtheme&tab=VideoAndCamera&DoPanTo=False&Direction=&PanFactor=&DoZoomScaleFactor=&x=&y=&Encoder=&timestamp=47921&x1=0&x2=0&y2=0&y1=0&gCenterLat=null&gCenterLon=null&gZoomLvl=null

Jeremy S. said...

Cars are getting stranded?! Foot's Winter Stormcast page said that this storm had the looks of one that we might be familiar with...I guess they were dead on...

Morpheus said...

Ha pocket of freezing rain right over my house - got too excited looking at that snow track last night. Reporting from Maryland snow donut hole. Quack. Happy to not have to drive to work.

ravensbbr said...

Sorry to hear that, Morpheus. Temps are supposed to be falling all day, don't give up the ship yet?

Morpheus said...

Thanks - switched back over to snow and picking up, so smiles all around. It stirred the Eeyore in me wake to rain and just a slushy dusting. Time to make the coffee!

Loosend said...

Hello Everyone. Glad to see the usual posters are back. Is it me or does this look like its moving quite rapidly. Any chance it will fill itself in on the back side?

ravensbbr said...

Loosend, I don't really think it'll do anything but keep trucking along to the NE. Haven't seen any model evidence to the contrary, anyway. Andy could answer that one far better than I.

BioPat said...

Good morning all! Pleased to say I'm having a cup of coffee and watching the news this morning. Actually, I'm drying out after being outside to get the snow blower out of hibernation and getting it running after almost a 2 year rest. Thankfully it was tuned Fall of 2012 in preparation for last winter so it wasn't too bad thanks to the bicycle pump trick!

It appears they have downgraded total amounts for us in Catonsville, but that's ok. Daughter needs to get to UA in Swann Creek by 2, and with exams next week we need to get back to work at school. I'm doing double duty at home since my husband had rotator cuff surgery in late October; in fact I drove him to first PT session last night. Needless to say I am pleased it won't be a major event just enough to allow the kids to sled and enjoy baking cookies this afternoon. Andy enjoy the manwich and keep up posted on updated snowfall, Needa and Julee enjoy the day! To all my other Foots friends, enjoy the fun!

Leslie said...

Yeah!!!!!!

Morpheus said...

BioPat sorry to hear about your husbands injury, hope it heals well. I was a little worries that the fuel might have started to Jell, even with stabilizer. I was happy to see it was fine and started without a problem. Looks like I will not need the blower today as the grass is we have less than an inch here. Incase I need it in the future what is the bicycle pump trick for starting a snow blower?

Morpheus said...

Ha my last post is not very coherent as my 4 year was singing in my ear and asking who BioPat is how her husband got hurt... meant to say grass is still showing through the snow...

Morpheus said...

Reporting fog here is Bowie as a batch of warm rain hit the snow...

ravensbbr said...

Boo...not even 6" at this point up here in God's country. Oh well, nice to not be at work. John Deere and I will be on it here soon as it winds down...

Next possibility for winter precip this Saturday!

Tom Flanagan said...

This storm has been an absolute BUST here in annapolis. It stopped snowing, and I looked at the radar, and the snow seems to have moved east of us! And guess how much snow I'm looking at? Half an inch at most….

Morpheus said...

Hi Tom - nice to have another "MD Snow southerner" to commiserate with. I was hoping to at least have enough to take my son slay riding... had to head to my sisters in NY for the blizzard last year to do that with him. Yes I was so desperate I drove into a blizzard to show my son what snow as!

NeedaSnowday said...

Advisories have been lifted...

Birds still going crazy at my feeders!

Can we hit 100 posts? Just like old times!! :)

Julee said...

Looks like about 2-3 inches ...so ... not 6 ... but those 3 inches are STUNNINGLY GORGEOUS on the trees!
Makes me smile everytime I look outside -- which is a lot!

Christmas cookies baked, cooling, waiting for icing. These last two days have been a beautiful gift.
Keep feeding the birds!

Morpheus said...

I can help with the post count. I was in a meeting a few weeks ago where NOAA was discussing their new probability forecasting effort that they are piloting in Sterlying.

Notes:
Uncertainty - example snow/rain line.
Looking to communicating the range of possibilities.
This winter will provide:
Now using the NSW most likely forecast.

Change: (explains the amount of uncertainty)
Min/most likely/ Max Snow. (new last year)
Changes the snow will be greater than x inches.
Probably of ranges table - selectable by county (6 spots for the probability). (new table to make the min., most likely, max, table.

Science - they are using an ensemble of all the models, combine with forecasters expertise.

36 hours before any forecasting traditionally. Will now be able to provide 2-3 day out initial forecast.

Link to site, but it seems they have stopped updating it:


http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterdemo/index.php

Morpheus said...

Should be chances not changes of snow... auto correct on this tablet is driving me crazy :-)

ravensbbr said...

And...100 posts. That. Just. Happened. :-)

ravensbbr said...

On my way to measuring in 10 random spots out back...when the sun came out and I realized John Deere and I needed to get on it before everything slushed up. Which it then did.

#metalfreezesquickly

8 spot average was 5.3". Not a terrible day a'tall...

BioPat said...

Well the walks and drive were cleared around noon to allow that bit of sunlight to melt anything we didn't get off the walks. I am sure freezing will set in once the sun goes down and we are nearing the Winter Solstice so dusk will come early.

My husband is recovering well from surgery, it's just frustrating for him not to be able to use his right arm. Mr. Perfectionist did finish decorating the tree today so I was able to clean up and store the boxes for now. Oh how I have a love/hate relationship with the decorating. My need for order drives me crazy with the in between stages and when it's done it's done!

BioPat said...

Hi again all! I was just reviewing the 10 day extended forecast which looks very interesting. Lots of moisture will be available, just a matter of looking at temperatures and where blocking will occur. Once again it's all in the timing. Interesting pattern we're seeing with cold temps to boot.

NeedaSnowday said...

So, Saturday....?


......what.....



.......too early?

ravensbbr said...

I'm wondering about Saturday, Need. Think the L would have to track about 100 miles east of where they have it right now for us to get in on the fluff.

Thoughts?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Glad to hear everyone is well and had at least a taste of snow! BP hope your husband gets back to form quickly!

We had 5.9 inches here on top of the 7 from Sunday. About 13 inches in 3 days so no complaints.

Plenty of promise in the pattern so if you had the shaft today in our warmer zones keep hope alive.

Here are a few shots from my mountain top hood at 1000 feet just across the State line!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/sets/72157638562032993/show

Mike Cheuvront said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mike Cheuvront said...

Hello all! Got 5" here in Manchester. 10 "in 3 days AWESOME!

ravensbbr said...

Hey Mike, been a blast for us NE Carroll folk, huh? Hope Saturday pans out!

kyle farmer said...

we had three inches in south harford county 9 in last couple days not bad hopefully more on Saturday and the near future.FITF!

Rufus said...

Andy is there a nw pa weather page? Heading to Edinboro to pick up the youngest tomorrow and just wondering. thx

Rufus said...

Snowing in Edinboro they are def having a more normalish winter this year

Mike Cheuvront said...

Yeah ravensbbr it would be so awesome. I am pumped about this winter!