Foot's Forecast | Weather Intelligence

Will it be enough?

Current ice projections by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center in College Park, MD Lightest green is one-hundredth to one-tenth (0.01" to 0.10") light green is one tenth to one-quarter (0.10" to 0.25") and the real ice jackpot is the dark green and blue, with amounts greater than one-quarter inch of ice by Monday AM.

7:00 AM EST 12/8 (Forecaster Foot) Old-timers to this site who have traditionally hailed from the education and public safety communities break into three groups:

1. Teachers and students, who just want a snow day no matter what it takes, any time of the year. (Heck, last season they had to wait until AFTER winter ended to get 1 measly day.)
2. Parents and emergency managers, who just want the straight scoop on what is happening when, where, how long and how bad. When big decisions are pending, they don't have time for philosophical weather fluff
3. Administrators and office workers, who only have 1 question: "Will it be ENOUGH??" This is a critical question that indicates the true potential severity of the storm -- will the intensity, duration and type of precipitation impact the region to the extent that offices are also closed for administrators? 

For the Mid-Atlantic region, here is what our Winter Stormcast Team has prepared these answers to your questions, but in a word, our response is "YES." This map shows how we think the storm will play out over the region, as prepared by Forecaster Jason Isaacs:

TIMING & PRECIP TYPE: Start time will may be as early as 9 AM for some, but generally will be from 11 AM-3 PM for this region from south to north. Precipitation will initially be in the form of snow mixed with sleet. 

• The transition to freezing rain will be from south to north as well beginning in the mid afternoon and covering most of the region by the evening. Finally the transition from freezing rain to plain rain will occur when surface temperatures break the freezing mark, occurring from SE to NW. 

ACCUMULATIONS:

• I-95 and Metros: Coating-2” of snow/sleet, followed by a glaze-0.2” of ice
• NW Suburbs & rural areas: 1-3” of snow/sleet followed by 0.2”-0.4” of ice 

IMPACTS: The ground has been relatively warm recently, so more accumulation will be initially on colder surfaces like grass, sidewalks, trees, etc. before the roads. 

• By afternoon, travel could become hazardous, especially in the areas most affected by freezing rain. Keep an eye on temperatures specifically at your location because very small local variations will mean the difference between safe plain rain, and dangerous freezing rain. If it’s raining and the temperatures is near 32º or below, we recommend avoiding driving! 
• Downed trees and power outages will develop overnight into Monday as ice amounts on limbs and power lines increases.

Conditions will improve as temperatures rise above freezing Sunday night into Monday. Most everyone in our region will see temperatures close to 40º on Monday with plain rain. 

MORE SNOW? There is a chance for a secondary wave of precipitation that could bring some light snow on Tuesday. We’ll be watching this closely as well, but we would like to get through this first storm before turning attention to that possibility. 

(Forecaster Mike | Collaborators: Forecasters Jason M, Emily, Connor)