Wednesday, January 1, 2014


A Wintry Kick-off

11:20 AM 1/1/14 (Winter Stormcast Team) Happy New Year wishes to all our readers! While we are starting off the year today with seasonable and dry conditions, a winter storm will impact the eastern U.S. late Thursday into Friday. Two separate disturbances will combine over the eastern half of the country, while high pressure to the north feeds cold air into the region. 

The latest precipitation projections (shown left) from NOAA show two regions of impact, with much of the central mid-Atlantic receiving less in possible snow or rain.




IMPACTS: For much of the Mid-Atlantic, precipitation will start as rain or a rain/snow mix. Precipitation is expected to changeover to snow Thursday evening into the overnight hours from north to south. 
  • Snowfall accumulation is likely for many areas at least from the Washington, D.C. area northward. 
  • The highest snowfall amounts should be across Pennsylvania and New Jersey, where significant accumulations will be possible. 
  • Farther south into the Baltimore/Washington, D.C. metro area, light to moderate snowfall accumulations will be possible. Areas farther to the south will likely see little accumulation before the storm ends later Friday morning.

TIMING: Precipitation should begin by late Thursday afternoon or early evening from southwest to northeast. 
  • The heaviest snowfall amounts will be Thursday night. Snow will clear out from west to east by late Friday morning. 
  • Strong northwest winds Friday morning will add to the hazardous travel conditions wherever snow accumulates.

Stay tuned for more updates and specific forecast amounts to be posted later today. (Forecaster Jason M. and the Winter Stormcast Team) 

228 comments:

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Mike Cheuvront said...
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Mike Cheuvront said...

Could these systems sandwich us and leave us in the middle with no meat? If you look at the precip movement and upper air guidance it begs the question. Precip is moving to our north and south is sliding off the coast. If only the northern part would slide south and drawn the southern moisture north.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Models have trended much much wetter as of late. I won't make a guess yet as I want to see if the trends hold. I don't think 4-8 for Baltimore Metro, or 6-10 for points north and east of there is an unreasonable expectation, but I will not say I would forecast that yet. Given this is such a fragile set-up and the models have been putrid, I think waiting to take a stab late tonight is the best course. I do expect WINTER STORM WATCHES to be issued by this evening if trends hold. Friday will be nasty with cold, wind, and blowing snow.

BioPat said...

Happy New Year Andy!! The models are showing much more moisture and could produce 15:1 all the way to 20:1 ratios depending on when the deep freeze actually arrives. The next 12 hours will hopefully pull these models into alignment with more accurate snow totals. I'm ready with plenty of hot chocolate for Friday! Looks like manwich time for you!!

NeedaSnowday said...

It appears the watches and warnings are going up to the north of us.... I sure hope we can cash in! I don't want to be in the snow hole!

Julee said...

Andrew, you sure know how to sweet-talk a girl.

Four to eight inches of snow is MILES better than the "one to three" or "dry slotting" that those other guys
are promising.
Even if we end up with the aforementioned one to three ... it's the dreaming that is the best part ... right?
The dreaming.
And the buying of necessary supplies.

Julee said...

Okay, I have just seen the latest NWS Winter Storm Warnings map. Purple alllllll around us, and yet that purple on the northern border of Maryland looks curiously linear.
When moving into the area, what self-respecting storm pays attention to a little line drawn by a couple of 18th century surveyors? Is it really a force field that we know nothing about?

NeedaSnowday said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mike Cheuvront said...

Julee are you in Northern Central Md or South? So far the more N the better it seems:-)

Jeremy S. said...

Well, I believe that the office that issues those advisories, warnings, watches, etc. does not issue them for our area. We have our own NWS office for that....

Jeremy S. said...

Well, I believe that the office that issues those advisories, warnings, watches, etc. does not issue them for our area. We have our own NWS office for that....

Julee said...

Mike ... live in central B Co. work about 600 inches south of M/D Line.

Jeremy ... where are OUR people? On a cruise?

Thanks to you both for your kind replies.

BioPat said...

Julee, I believe the uncertainty of the transition is leading away from any kind of watch and certainly a warning at this point. Once these fronts move geographically closer then watches and /or warnings will be issued for our area. I wouldn't anticipate that until late tonight or more probably tomorrow morning.

NeedaSnowday said...

If I were a meteorologist I would want to rip out my hair right now! Models don't agree and no consistency among the media outlets or Mets.

Is a crazy hobby to follow weather in midatlantic!

Julee said...

You KNOW it Needy!
I've seen maps with 1-3, 2-4, 3-6 totals for Baltimore County. WHAT?

I just LOVE to watch it snow. Sad when it all falls at night.
On Christmas Eve, I stood on my back porch amidst those big fluffy flakes and thanked the snow for being so beautiful. That's right ... I'm certifiable.

Justin Berk, I just read your latest FB post. Are you lurking on this website, you cheeky Meteo?!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Julee. .I am 1 mile from Hanover, Pa in Md. If it comes together we should be fine. I do worry about the dry slot of the system.

Needa... Exactly what I have been saying in a nut shell. All looks suspicious to me and with the past busts, this may not be clear until sometime tomorrow.

I for one would like a 2010 type storm :-)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I think I have seen enough to hazard a perilous forecast, My first prelim stab is:

2-4 from Dc to Baltimore including Annapolis

4-6 Baltimore North and East

5-9 Belair, North and East through Cecil County

6-10 for York County, lower end west of I-83 (6) near the Mason Dixon, higher up to the 10 north east of I-83 through NW Lancaster County and NE York County

I see more of an upside at this point more than a downside. Brutal cold and Blowing snow will be a major problem Friday morning.

I agree with BP about watches. NWS already sees potential for 4 inches in the area. 5 is Watch and Warning criteria in MD. Ratios get you to 5 on average from Baltimore North and east. I can see a Watch for Baltimore, Harford Counties. NWS will hold off until 0z data likely. By am they will go advisory or warning.

Mike Cheuvront said...

Www.coolwx.com/ptype/

Check out the precip run

ravensbbr said...

Mike, assuming you mean the predicted huge dry slot over central MD? Or the next one that misses us, too? Or the one after that...that appears to miss us high?

I blame the Ravens.

NeedaSnowday said...

I second it BBR.... Ravens flubbed this up!

BioPat said...

Andy your snow totals seem to jive with JB and a few other sources as well. If all falls into place I believe you may be able to chalk this up in the win column. Of course, time will tell!

Jeremy S. said...

I can just imagine going to school for a day and then having a snow day the next. Why not just call school off for tomorrow?! :P We've been off since December 21st! It'd be such a pain for everyone...you know... :D

Jeremy S. said...

I'm just happy that we're getting this storm potential this early into Winter. First, there was a crazy December run of three storms for the area which left me with about 9" total and now this! Much better than the last two years already!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

BP,

I think JB's call is very reasonable. The models are really having a hard time with this, and the QPF has trended upward. This is a brutal arctic air mass feeding into this system so ratios will be abnormally high. I went with an average 15:1 ratio, with this starting at 10:1 and ending around 20:1. Most of the heavy qpf will come at 15:1 or greater ratios. Factor in .3-.5 qpf which HPC outlines you have 4.5-7 inches. Some will be a little wet to start but almost all snow from Baltimore North.

This will need to be fine tuned but I think Baltimore metro will reach warning criteria.

Mike Cheuvront said...

Agreed Jeremy!

BioPat said...

Andy, thanks for the detail. I agree with your synopsis. The most significant factor is really not the snow for us but the brutal cold that will follow. I don't think we've seen temps this low for quite some time. Even if we get only 3 - 4 inches the wind and brutal cold will make the roads very difficult on Friday. Most surface treatments will not work with the lower temps.

Mike Cheuvront said...

Bbr.... You know in your heart by what you saw from the Ravens this year it was better if they had lost. They will rebuild in the draft and become a force again in short order. They are a great organization. Winners like Mr. foot and JB!

kyle farmer said...

Any worries about the dry slot

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

GFS is wetter and better with storm evolution. This appears to be a solid 3-6 event in Baltimore Metro, with some area near and just to the NE of Baltimore reaching 8 inches. I think we will see winter storm watches overnight from the City to the N and NE.

BioPat said...

Local stations are still downplaying snow totals with a 1 - 3" event. However it is true the moisture is moving in faster than anticipated which will increase snow totals. I don't think we'll hear any advisories until tomorrow before noon.

NeedaSnowday said...

Good call BP!

Winter Weather Advisory
Alert:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATE TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SNOW
THIS EVENING.
Instructions: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Target Area:
Carroll
Frederick
Harford
Howard
Northern Baltimore
Southern Baltimore

Jeremy S. said...

A nice shield of precip has formed, linking the two lows together. (Maybe this will bode well for us.)Looking at the radar now, it appears that snow has reached the most western tip of MD. Also, TerpWeather has noticed that the temps might (probably will) underperform. This system looks strong just by the looks of it.

Loosend said...

Good call BioPat. So far you are correct but the storm is looking good. Too bad there isn't more cold air early on.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I am uping my totals to 3-6 for Baltimore Metro, and 4-8 just north and east through Belair. Storm is trending wetter and stronger. More banding will produce localized totals at the top of my range.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

With the new model data an upgrade to a WINTER STORM WARNING from Baltimore north and east is warranted. Advisories should be extended south.

Jeremy S. said...

This is a dumb question, but what defines Baltimore-Metro? What's the geography?

Amy said...

HoCo had already called off this evenings activities

BioPat said...

Hi all, I was out shopping and the number of trucks with plows attached should be indicative of what's to come. JB is calling for a start time 4:30 - 5:30 so we're close and a number of schools have already cancelled afternoon and evening activities. Now, off to get bananas for my Mom - got to keep the K level up when you're 96!!

Amy said...

I left school in Columbia at 2:45 and snow had started falling. It was small and more frozen then flake but I didn't think we'd see it that early.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

We already have close to an inch of snow on the ground, with moderate bonus snow falling. 29 degrees.

Baltimore Metro is Baltimore City, Towson, Parkville, Catonsville etc. Generally in and around the Baltimore beltway.

Julee said...

Walked out of school (10 minutes south of the Mason Dixon line) and it felt raw and damp. Looked up and thought ... OH! What did I just see? A snowflake?

Two minutes later ... BAM! snow EVERYWHERE! Big old flakes and it covered everything PRET-TY quickly!
Driving on 83 and 695 I watched the thermometer on the car go from 33 to 32 to 33 to 35 to 33 -- praying that it didn't go below 32 until I got home. Traffic was already starting to crawl.

Take care everyone!

BioPat said...

It started snowing in Catonsville about 3:40 which was earlier than projected. Temperature has definitely dropped with the onset on snow. Going to the grocery store for bananas was crazy!! Why is everyone doing major shopping on Thursday afternoon?? I don't know which was worse the parking lot or the self pay lines! Snow does bring out the crazies - so why was I among them!!??

mayawild said...

Snowing in the city and baltimore County! (^_-)

BioPat said...

I'm watching WBALtv at the moment and find it interesting that Balto metro is still only under an advisory. Perhaps when we have 1 -2 inches NWS will reconsider that idea.
Now we need to brace for wind and cold as well as that snow. Don't forget to leave a faucet at a slight stream to prevent pipes from freezing!

BTW, Lynette if you're reading, John said "Hi"!

Loosend said...

Snowing in Edgemere.

Sandy said...

Got our 1-2 inches already in Frederick

Amy said...

How embarrassing, I had to go get toilet paper. I wanted to scream that I wasn't panicking.

Anonymous said...

Baltimore and Carroll Counties now under a winter storm warning.

BioPat said...

Amy, TP!!?? How funny is that, lol! At least it wasn't the trio, milk, bread, and tp.

We are still under an advisory until the powers that be up the totals. My daughter is at work until 10 pm unless UA closes early. I know the beltway will be clear, just not sure about our hill.

Tina said...

I moved out of state too soon. So much green on the radar headed this way (downstate DE)... c'mon cold air and make it turn blue!!

Amy said...

So embarrassing!!! Any bets for school being cancelled versus late start?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I intentionally go to the store and buy milk, toilette paper, bread, and Manwhich. It's fun to be controversial!

BioPat said...

Amy, I think with the cold and blowing snow they will cancel but only after they announce a delay. So you have a 1 day return to school then a weekend, hah then try and get them ready for exams. I love having our exams in December but I know you'll never get the public sector to make that switch.

Andy you are too funny. I love the rebels!

Amy said...

Good thing I gave enough review work to cover today and tomorrow. I'll also email parents for the one class I wouldn't see until tomorrow to lw the know what work they need to do.

I don't see hoco going delay then cancel. They'll just hold out until 5:30 am

NeedaSnowday said...

I agree with you Amy! Let's just hope they do it before 5:30 tomorrow!

BioPat said...

Yes, I guess you're right considering HoCo's track record. The way it is snowing right now and with the cold and winds I just don't see school in session tomorrow. Thankfully we're off through Monday so not a problem.

JULIE SMITH said...

about 1" here in glen burnie

Julie

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

5 inches and heavy snow falling here. The snow is light and fluffy. Yes light and fluffy!

Ever since I attended sensitivity training I always incorporate softer adjectives in my vocabulary to help bring out my softer side. It's a work in progress, but it's baby steps like this that create a more sensitive man.

BioPat said...

Catonsville has about 3" at the present and it's still coming down at a good pace.

Tina said...

Oh jeez, Andy, I just laughed out loud at the sensitivity training bit and our two dogs are looking at me like I've lost my mind!!

Which may be happening since each raindrop falling outside is a wasted snowflake. Patience, I needs it.

ravensbbr said...

Slammed here in NE Carroll. Can't take a measurement because my hands are still shaking from my 2 HOUR DRIVE back from hunting just 5 miles north in PA.

Just for any rookie snow drivers out there...if you're on a hill...it doesn't get better to stop the car in the middle of the hill and get out and see how slippery it is. If you're moving, KEEP MOVING. Momentum doesn't come back. Freaking out and throwing a fit doesn't help.

All aforementioned advice directed to the yuppie who decided to do the aforementioned actions in the middle of the road.

JULIE SMITH said...

sensitivity training! fluffy manwhich mancave

JULIE SMITH said...

In glen burnie looks like about 2" snow is clinging to the branches appears heavy like. Roads are getting covered and dicey now

BioPat said...

Sensitivity training --- puleeese! however I hope you enjoy you baby soft blanket of snow as the large crystal frozen flakes deepen.

JULIE SMITH said...

people are idiot drivers in the snow its scary

Amy said...

When is the snow due to stop? Weather advisory through 7am but then weather.gov says snow 60% likely during the day.

Leslie said...

Add Frederick County to the Warning list!

HoCoKTchr said...

Early call: Harford Co 2 hours late....Cecil closed.... Note HoCo not on here! Of course!


http://www.wbaltv.com/weather/closings#mid=17417836

NeedaSnowday said...

HoCo not even under a Warning... Better set your alarm clock to check for delay....then closing??

Amy said...

My friend posted a pic about 1.5 hours after snow started and she had enough to completely cover the deck and grass (not one blade showing) . That was around 5pm. I'd be surprised if western hoco at the very least doesn't come through for us.

Set my alarm for closing info, yes. But they don't do two stages of delay then closing. They'll wait until 5-5:30am to make the call. And it will be final for the day. If we do have schools I hope my trailer/classroom heater can really put out the heat to keep up with these temps.

Baltimore, get ready for some wate main breaks!

Morpheus said...

A little over an inch her in Bowie of wet snow. Temp has been dropping and snow is now nice an fluffy, coming down gently.
How was that Andy did I pass?

NeedaSnowday said...

http://www.chart.state.md.us/MapNet/MapDOTNET.aspx?Browser=IE7&ViewName=Select&Cmd=switchtheme&tab=VideoAndCamera&DoPanTo=False&Direction=&PanFactor=&DoZoomScaleFactor=&x=&y=&Encoder=&timestamp=47921&x1=0&x2=0&y2=0&y1=0&gCenterLat=null&gCenterLon=null&gZoomLvl=null

Check out roads.

Tina said...

The freeze line, by radar, is about 8 miles north of us and SLOWWWWLY moving south. I haven't checked out the window this often, to see if the change to snow has happened, since I was a kid. Criminy.

Julee said...

Soooooooo beautiful outside! Serenely snowing .. we have 3+ here.
35.8 outside ... feels colder than that!

Husband of one of our teachers had an accident a few hours ago. Collided with a car that had slipped off of the road a few minutes earlier. He's okay ... car isn't.

Be careful everyone.

Kathi said...

It's so good to see everyone posting on here again, just like during Snowmaggedon (or however it is spelled, lol) I'm a stone's throw from BWI and we have at least 3" and it's still coming down hard. I think we may surpass the 2-4" that was forecast for us! Fortunately I am now retired so I don't have to go out tomorrow but for any of you that do please stay safe!

BioPat said...

If Catonsville has significant snow as does Carroll County does anyone have an idea how much snow Columbia area may have? We just measured 4.5" out our back door in Catonsville.

kyle farmer said...

28.6 and snowing good In south bel air with 4.5+

Tina said...

Oh.my.GOD!!! It's snowing in Millsboro, DE!!! Finally! I'm 50 going on 5. :D It's sticking, too! The dogs are 18 months old and have never really had snow to play in. Tomorrow will fun, fun, fun in the snow. :)

::deep breath::

JULIE SMITH said...

its gorgeous out!! we have about 2" I guess at BWI https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=494823700633250&set=a.349378048511150.81876.349377261844562&type=1&theater

BioPat said...

Daughter home safely, she said the ride home was not easy.

JULIE SMITH said...

TINA!! SNOW!>

Cathy in BelAir said...

5 inches on my deck in Bel Air and snowing like crazy!!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Snow has compacted somewhat. Measured 6 inches and still moderate to sometimes heavy snow.

Julee said...

Just measured 4 inches on my back porch and still snowing (Pikesville). Fluffy, but doesn't seem like the powdery kind that blows around.

It IS gorgeous outside, Julie!

Looked at the radar. Is that a dry slot I see before me?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I guess I am no longer crazy! I told people at work that the Baltimore area was going to have 4-8 inches of snow and I was looked as if I just contaminated the office with communicable constipation. I left early to beat the weather and traffic. I'm sure the ride home for some who did not listen cured that constipation! This hobby does have its occasional utility!

BioPat said...

JB calling this an "overachiever" I'm with him, looks like Andy and JB were on the money with this one, well done!

ravensbbr said...

Andy, no joke, I am trying to get the higher-ups at work (can't say where) to incorporate your forecast into their decision making. Please know that all of us on this message board appreciate your "hobby" a lot! :)

Tina said...

Oh Andy, I remember the warning you gave out that fateful January day... jeez, was it 3 years ago already???!! At any rate, you said when the flakes started (expected around 2pm) to get MOVING or one could be doomed to sit in traffic (I paraphrase). I told my co-worker that day to get out when the snow started a bit after two. I had a 20 minute drive home and it was insane by the end of it. My co-worker, who lives in Fairfax, VA waited another coupla hours and sat in traffic, I kid you not, over 12 hours, trying to get home.

BioPat said...

Tina, I remember that storm, Rich Foot and Andy were right on top of that but so many chose not to listen!

Tina said...

All that my friends/co-workers knew was there was some guy I called "Andy from York" who was the weather oracle. I think they might have thought he was related to the Windsors...

::snort::

Tina said...

Ha! Sussex County, DE just got a winter storm warning!!

Jeremy S. said...

So, is this going to end west to east or will anything stall or come back to us?

BioPat said...

Looks like we're hitting a temporary dry slot. Snow has tapered way down but still falling, the radar still showing quite a bit of storm to go before it's over.

Jeremy S. said...

So, central MD is still in the game?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I think we can eek out .2 to .4 qpf. We have the cold and ratios now because of it. Let's go conservative and say average 15:1. 3-6 inches more is possible.

JULIE SMITH said...

3-6" more where is possible? its dried up here at the glen burnie

Julee said...

No possible WAY!!! 3 - 6 MORE???
Oh Glorious Day!!
Have 5 inches on porch now.
I want to stay up all night and look at it, but it's a school night and 5 a.m. comes early ... and dark.

Andy, as always ... The Man.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

There will be some back building as the energy departs and also bands will push south. Up to 3 inches more possible west of the bay, the 6 would be north and east of I 95.

Jeremy S. said...

You sure, Andy? It looks as if the precip is just about to scoot off to the east. TerpWeather said that this is pretty much it.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

It will back build and will be be tenacious. Also we have high ratio snow that will pile up fast. Won't take much liquid to give you accums. Overnight .1 of an inch could equal 2 inches. You will see more "fluffy" snow fall.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

There is a lot of energy in the atmosphere and the winds will kick up, squeezing .1 to .2 of an inch of liquid is not much, but when you are dealing with pure powder at these temps it will add up fast. The 0Z gfs spit out about another .2 qpf for Baltimore Metro, 15 or 20:1 ratios you can snag another 3 in a hurry. Also squall like bands will sneak back into the area.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Modest returns of 10-20 DBZ will yield appreciable accumulations at these ratios. You can look at the radar and see some back building filling in from the north and west.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

You can see a moderate band backbuilding from eastern Adams County and NW York County swinging south into MD. ENJOY!

kyle farmer said...

Coastal kicking in NOT OVER YET radar is EXPLODING http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=LWX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=7&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

kyle farmer said...

We got 6+ in south bel air I see what your talking about Andy still snowing good here

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

RADAR is really filling in! Enjoy MORE snow!

NeedaSnowday said...

All Howard County public schools are closed today, Friday, January 3, 2013. Offices are open.

NeedaSnowday said...

Add Anne Arundel, Balt , Carroll ,Harford.

NeedaSnowday said...

Balt city, Montgomery, and Frederick have joined the party

BioPat said...

Enjoy the extra day of vacation teachers! I got up just to check on school status. I told a group of HoCo teachers Monday evening they would have only 1 day of school out of the 2 scheduled; glad my prediction came through - it helps to be a credible source!

BioPat said...

Andy and JB great call on the snow totals! WBAL was just giving totals around the area and you guys nailed it!! Moral of the story; check out the Foot's team for the most accurate picture on these weather events.

NeedaSnowday said...

BP, Agreed on JB and Andy's call.. JB consulted with his friend Tony Pann, who was off with the 1-3 inches.... Glad JB stuck to his prediction!

Fropa Monday?
Snow Thursday?

..... Too soon? ;-)

Winter of 2014....woohoo!

Jeremy S. said...

Winds are blowing, shifting the snow and making it feel like sub-zero. And with that, off to school!

Cathy in BelAir said...

Andy, I don't know what your day job is, but if it's not weather related, you're in the wrong profession! With the plethora of weather sites and apps out there, this blog is the FIRST place I come to get my information. You're accurate, truthful, and funny. I love the banter among all the regulars! I don't comment often because my background is not science, but I have been coming here for 5 years and really look foreword to your opinions, forecast and explanations. Thank you, and keep up the good work!

BioPat said...

Needa, what's "Fropa"? I let me family sleep in and fired up the snow blower to clear the walks and driveway. My husband cannot do much as he recovers from rotator cuff surgery but got it as done as it will be for today. As fast as the walks were cleared they iced up and snow blew across the surface. We just had our brick walk redone this spring so I'm not throwing salt on that surface. However at the current temp and wind it wouldn't work anyway. I doubt Hospice will be here today for my Mom but we're ready nonetheless.

I think it's a good day for hot chocolate and chili for dinner!!

Tom Flanagan said...

5.2 inches here in Annapolis/Crownsville area! This is the first storm I've seen in a while that truly "outdid" the predictions!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Thanks Cathy and crew. Weather prediction is such a roll of the dice to begin with. There are computer models that are remarkable super computers that take inputs from thousands of sources including aircraft data from commercial and military sources, satellite data, etc and do a remarkable job in performing numerical calculations that give us an idea of how features
in the atmosphere will converge.

At the end of the day they are not always right but should be used as tools not gospel, and that is where the problem with some television outlets and forecasting comes into play etc.

Tv people often just read canned forecasts some of which are out of date and do a disservice to the public by not telling them the potential upside and downside of a storm impacting the area.

Weather always changes and the models can't predict perfectly how it might change. They do a good job calculating how features might evolve, but at the end of the day those features do not always evolve as forecast by the models.

If you follow storms in this region you will see how often the forecasts are flat out wrong, and that is understandable.

What I have a problem with is that in the media no one warns people of the potential of a storm, and its potential impacts on you. All you here is "a chance of snow".

I don't know what a "chance of snow" means! Is it a chance of a flurry, a blizzard, ice, rain, or what. Could we get a lot, or a little, What's the max potential, could it miss us?

What I try to do for my own interests is figure out what is behind the mechanics. Try to look at the most reliable tools, the opinions of others concerning those tools, NWS forecast discos about the tools, and past experience with those tools.

If you like a nice storm like I do it can be fun to chase it. You have to be willing to adjust to the data as it changes and be honest.

A forecast is nothing more than the "best reasoned and logical "GUESS" as to what will happen.

I like the national weather service scientific forecast discussions and always look at multiple sources before throwing out the best guess. Justin Berk does a great service to the public as he lays out his thought process behind a forecast, and there are others out there like him. No one is ALWAYS right but as long as they are HONEST then that is half the battle.

Forecasts are about using the best tools available to make the "Best Guess" concerning an outcome. Anyone that tells you they know for certain days out is WRONG. All you can do further out in time is lay out possibilities then narrow them down as an event gets closer.

Plenty more winter left, and this one is much better than the last 3. Here is to more snow!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Thanks Andy!:-)

ravensbbr said...

Monday of next week...forecast low temp of -2F for northeast Carroll?!?

#UnderArmourfactorystoretrip...

Kathi said...

Thanks Andy! I, like Cathy above, don't always comment but I have been coming here for about 5 years as well and love the camaraderie between the regulars and hearing your perspective on weather. I have no science background either but have always been interested in weather and really appreciate the information shared here by you and the others! Here's to more snow in 2014!

Kathi said...

Oh, and by the way, if it hadn't been for someone on this forum back in Feb. 2010 we would not have known that the Home Depot in Pasadena had just gotten in 5 snowblowers and luckily my hubby was able to get one of them! So I am forever grateful to everyone that posts here!

Cathy in BelAir said...

Thanks for your kind and informative response Andy! Now what is going on next week?!!

Morpheus said...

Rain on Sunday!?! Deep freeze on Monday!!! Ahh pick a season and stick with I say.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Cathy,

I am concerned about the Monday commute. Timing will be key, but we have a SERIOUS arctic cold front moving through, and the POTENTIAL for very heavy snow squalls, even a clap of thunder is there. I could see 1-2 inches of snow falling with this front passing through as some model data shows .10 qpf. That is our next weather maker. The devil is always in the details and obviously driving in blinding squalls is a serious hazard so timing this will be the key.

Also flash freezing of moisture on the road with brutal cold coming in will be a concurrent issue to pay attention to. When you go from 40 degrees to below zero in a matter of hours you are apt to see some fireworks.

Julee said...

Uh huh.
Tomorrow, my sister is coming back from a week-long cruise in the Caribbean. Since she refused to pay the shipboard price of $27/15 minutes for internet use, we haven't been in touch all week. She arrives all unknowing at BWI tomorrow. Methinks I should take a thick wool scarf, wool hat and hand warmers for when she first exits the aerodrome.

Tina said...

Julee, what you NEED to take is a camera to get a picture of her face when she first exits the aerodrome, in the hopeful thought word hasn't spread about the winter scene she's about to enter.

:)))

Kathi said...

Julee, I think she is in for a very RUDE awakening! lol

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Down to 7 degrees here. Went for a walk and will do another in the am. Will take some pictures of the valleys below and try and post. Feels and looks like the arctic here.

I like the extreme cold so the colder the better! Now don't get me wrong, I still love the summer and nice Spring so I will not be packing the bags and moving to Alaska anytime soon. Just give me a good harsh winter and not this 50-60 nonsense and I will be fuller than a trailer park wedding reception at an all you can eat Cactus Willy buffet.

Julee said...

Andrew -- I agree with you. I have asthma and for some reason, I can only REALLY breathe when I'm outside in this very cold air. I can take really deep breaths and if feels SO wonderful! Needless to say, I don't get many natural opportunities to enjoy that kind of deep breathing. Invigorating! Giddy from so much oxygen.

Tina and Kathi -- It occurred to me that the pilot will be informing everyone on the plane about Baltimore's unbelievably low temps -- but hearing it and living it are two different experiences! :O

BioPat said...

Ouch, talk about a rude awakening, nothing like jumping into the deep freeze. Also, a word to the wise; leave a trickle of water running tonight from a bathroom faucet to ensure water is moving. I've had pipes freeze and burst once in my life; really would never want to see a repeat performance.
The next 7 days looks like a wild ride with moderating temps for Sunday and then slammed back into the deep freeze on Monday - Wednesday followed by another storm. I have a lab scheduled Thursday and Friday so I can guarantee I'll lose one of those days.
Many wonder how we can be experiencing global warming and yet still experience record cold temperatures. Part of the issue lies in the ocean waters. The warmer surface waters are diving and sending colder, deeper water to the surface. This phenomena is directly related to CO2 levels in the atmosphere, for which we are directly responsible. I am awaiting the complete report on global warming which is due to be released in March. I think we will all be shocked learning just how tenuous the condition of our planet has grown to be.

BioPat said...

Want to bet we'll have delayed openings on Tuesday because of the extreme cold. Many of you are too young to remember the extreme cold of the late 70's where the Bay froze, as did the ocean. The lows were similar to what we will be facing this week. At that time schools were opening on a 2 hour late schedule because it was too cold for students to be at the bus stop, and they couldn't get the engines started on the school buses. Let's see if technology has improved enough for any change in the response to this crazy cold.

Kathi said...

BioPat, I definitely remember the extreme cold when the Bay froze over, specifically 1977/78. My parents lived on Kent Island on the bay and the waves actually froze in place in front of our house! It looked like Antarctica out there. If I recall, it got cold in November and stayed that way until spring! One winter I will never forget!

HoCoKTchr said...

I'll take a late opening any way I can get it!

Bring it on- even though temperatures that cold definitely mean indoor recess- ugh!
LOL :)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS STATE COLLEGE
Long term /Sunday night through Friday/...
confidence building in dangerous wind chills early next week in
wake of Arctic cold front. Latest gefs and ec ensemble indicate 800 mb
temperatures around -28c Tuesday am. This Arctic air mass will be accompanied
by a gusty wind...increasing the odds of dangerous wchills and
prompting issuance of wind chill watch for late Monday through early
Wednesday across the West Mountains although dangerous wchills will be felt
by the entire region...given criteria of 25 blw...will restrict
watch to the West Mountains...where confidence of 25-35 blw is greatest.


Other concern will be snow showers and possible flash freeze
accompanying the passage of cold front early Monday am. Latest
guidance supports an inch or two of snow across the West Mountains early
Monday...with a coating possible downwind /east/ of the
alleghenies.


Air mass as defined by 800 mb temperatures could be the coldest this
region has seen in 20 years. The frigid temperatures combined with wgusts
around 30kts Monday night through Tuesday will result in extremely
dangerous conditions...making frostbite and hypothermia a real
concern even if exposed to the elements for only a short period.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

That is a great disco and the logic applies to the Baltimore area itself. I am still concerned about an inch or two of snow associated with the Arctic Frontal passage on wet roads and an instant flash freeze. With these temps road salt will not work. Monday afternoon could be very dicey.

NeedaSnowday said...

Dang! Y'all been busy chit-chatting!

Pat I think Andy just mentioned a frontal passage (fropa).... Frontal passages change weather conditions and can be accompanied by rain, clouds, and even severe weather. Can I get a big woot woot?!

HoCoK...am with ya! Driving from Baltimore County to Howard County to teach is dicey regardless of the weather haha!

Sorry, but Needy is being greedy ....let's get some more snow on the ground so we can enjoy snow days... I could care less about June..now... Ugh!

Mike Cheuvront said...

Off topic subject.

Not a fan of the global warming point of view. Especially when one Joe Bastardi, who is so well respected and intelligent with the knowledge conected with the subject, completely rejects it as being absurd.

Found it halarious the expedition to study global warming in Antarctica got stranded in 13 feet of ice and then the rescue ship got stuck :-)

Not being reported by most major media. Gee, I wonder why??

If you walked into a room in your house and found 1000 dominos set up in a specific order would you say to yourself, wow what blew up in this room or would you think, wow somebody DESIGNED THIS. Put them in order, in the place they are in.

There are so many things that have to be exactly right for life to exist as we know it on earth, our position to the sun, speed the earth turns, speed earth travels around the sun, earth is tilted exactly to support life ect ect ect.

The earth will not be destroyed by C02 emissions. It was designed to change, adapt and support you and I despite what we do.

Design shouts there must be a designer. Joe Bastardi believes this and so do I.

Some choose faith in science we choose faith in the Designer of science.









NeedaSnowday said...

Mike...Giving you a big AMEN!

Tina said...

OK, I'll throw my two cents in and leave it at that b/c, imo, climate change is like discussing religion or politics (which can generally never lead to good things when different points of view exist)... climate change IS happening. One can then argue the reasons for it: man-made, naturally occurring or a combination thereof. I go with the latter, since things are seldom black or white. It's just not possible for the Earth to effectively adapt to and mitigate, the damage humans have done to it since the industrial revolution. At the same time, evolution has shown normal climate change, though generally over a much broader time-frame than what we are seeing now.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled program: winter weather and dangerous cold. :)

Tina said...

I remember the blizzard of 77/78. My mom's sister lived 8 miles away, on a back country road. My parents kept telling her she really needed to come stay with us (she always lost power with storms). Nope, she would fine. Yeah... my dad ended up having to drive in the middle of that storm to get her.

BioPat said...

Mike, I have been sitting on the fence for many years. Yet there is tremendous evidence out there that the Earth is not going to recover quickly from the changes humans have made. Call it what you will I believe the final report to be released in March will be significant. As a science person I recognize that science is an attempt to explain the natural world. Science depends on inquiry based research to identify possible solutions. To doubt or disprove the existence of a designer- (God) is not science, only to try and explain the dynamics of nature. Andy's post explaining his work with meteorology is a great explanation of how scientists work every day. I do enjoy reading Basterdi but I do not always agree with his ideas. I do believe there is enough evidence to suggest there is some type of global change occurring, but again we are examining evidence.
In 77/78 scientists were convinced we were in a global cooling pattern leading to the next ice age. Needless to say today we can look back and say that was not quite right. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this winter plays out and what kind of seasonal changes will be in place as we move toward the warmer part of the year. The great thing about this format is it provides all of us the opportunity to discuss observations and project what we believe the outcome to be in short term weather patterns.

NeedaSnowday said...

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO
NOON EST SUNDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH.

* TIMING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES AT ONSET...SLOWLY RISING
THROUGH THE LOWER 30S THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...A COLD GROUND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
WILL ALLOW RAIN TO FREEZE ON CONTACT...PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED
ROADS.

NeedaSnowday said...

Thank goodness watching the weather has been positive, because the ravens and towson football certainly has been disappointing.....

BioPat said...

Hmmm, I wonder if we'll make 10:45 Mass? The ground is so cold whatever hits will freeze, guess we better be prepared as I need to get to Hopkins to pick up my meds as well.

NeedaSnowday said...

OT - is anyone watching KC meltdown in INDY ... what a football game!!

ravensbbr said...

Mike, great comments. Examining all evidence with complete objectivity and not with a predetermined set of politically acceptable "findings" will lead one to the truth.

BioPat said...

Icy in Catonsville at this time. It appears the icing may stay in place a bit longer than originally anticipated as today's high won't be in place until later this evening. Current radar shows ice over most of the Balto Metro area. Be careful if you're heading out to church this morning. I solved my dilemma by getting to the 5:15 Mass last evening.

Mike Cheuvront said...

Rough go of it leaving Church this morning. Ice building quickly in Carroll. Greatful we had snow a few days ago for another reason, salt left over on the roads has saved us from major issues on the main roads it seems.

Sad it's raining and below freezing. Cold air with no snow is just a plain waste :-)

JB posted on twitter a map showing possible snow for us at the end of this week. It may be a close call for snow here but we a shot. There will be a thaw coming afterward but it won't last real long I feel.

We gotta get some 12+ storms thrown into the mix this winter! :-):-)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I still think we are apt to receive a 1-2 inch snow with the arctic push Monday. The National Weather Service for Balt/Wash sums it up nicely. I think Advisory level snow is a possibility in Baltimore. The atmosphere is really juiced and that cold front means serious business. I could see someone milking 3 inches out of it.

NWS DISCO:

Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
Arctic cold front will move across the Interstate 95 corridor by 10z
Monday and then the Chesapeake Bay by 12z. Colder air will begin to
quickly rush in behind the front. Have deviated from the typical
diurnal temperature curve to reflect falling temperatures behind the
front on Monday.


As colder air moves in...there can be a transition from rain to
snow with lingering moisture behind the front. Most of the
accumulating snow appears to be relegated to the Potomac Highlands
where amounts could be near Winter Weather Advisory criteria...but
there is also a chance for a 1 to 2 hour period of snow to occur all
the way east of the Bay Monday morning before moisture departs.

Tina said...

I'm glad I'm too far east for the ice (this time around). But my sister and her family are with you, Mike, in Carrol and they're staying put today.

Amy said...

Trying to keep a handle on morning commutes Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday we know will be brutal cold and anything melting/slushy will hard freeze. What about tomorrow morning. Should I be scared about an icy commute.

NeedaSnowday said...

Gloomy, cold, rain… some of our sidestreets still look to be in pretty poor condition....

Mike Cheuvront said...

Very interesting "Saturday Summary" discussion from Joe Bastardi. Go to www.weatherbell.com

Towards the end Joe discusses what the Japanese model is seeing after a brief warm up.

Classic blocking taking place to our north could have us real excited about prospects for powder.

Check it out. Save it to your favorites and listen to JB's comments every week on the site. It's free!

His link is on the right. Enjoy!

BioPat said...

No more icing at this point, now the warm up before the arctic blast hits us tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how the school officials play this one, hopefully they will make safety for all the top priority.

NeedaSnowday said...

Ice storm warning for Carroll and Frederick

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST
THIS EVENING. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...SLOWLY RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

* WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

* IMPACTS...A COLD GROUND AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WILL
ALLOW RAIN TO FREEZE ON CONTACT...PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED
ROADS.

Amy said...

Anyone out there part of their county schools' FB page? I am for hoco where I teach and AA where I live and have a son in school. Aacps posted that they were anticipating an on time opening for school tomorrow but to stay tuned in case of further developments. The ignorant comments are almost entertaining. I kind of enjoyed the hoco parents blasting the central office over decision making with our prior snow event.

NeedaSnowday said...

Same ole Bungles..... :)

NeedaSnowday said...

Okay I'm for Green Bay in this last wild card matchup! And perhaps they could force some of that cold air down here before morning... Let the peeps sleep in...

BioPat said...

I'm rooting for Green Bay as well, although the first two possessions they have looked pretty lousy. Let's hope they can shake that off before 49ers score with the really good field position they were just handed.

Amy said...

The refs are rooting for Green Bay as well. Talk about missing some flags!?! Holding, intentional grounding, and soon personal fouls.

mayawild said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
BioPat said...

Yes, no question the cheddar heads have had a few calls made where the refs had their eyes closed. Aaron Rogers finally woke the offense up in a nice series of plays. My bones ache watching those guys get hit in that cold.

NeedaSnowday said...

That is because Ed Hoculi and crew don't throw too much laundry in a game!

ravensbbr said...

GFS did nail this one showing up as freezing rain/ice storm for us here in Carroll.

Next 48 hours will be pretty interesting with that much cold air inbound...

ravensbbr said...

Oh, and let's go Green Bay!!!

HoCoKTchr said...

Still all ice out here in Frederick with rain/mist coming down and freezing on surface...It better melt a lot or I can't imagine Frederick Co Schools opening on time!

NeedaSnowday said...

M'kay, our rooting for GB didnt yield much success.

C'mon Thursday night event....Needa needs a three day weekend again! ::rolls the weather dice::

BioPat said...

OK torrential rains awoke me at 4:30, by 9 am we could see snow and then the arctic blast. JB did nott seem concerned about the school's decision this morning. However, I asked my husband what his plan was for getting home this afternoon. We don't need another carmaggedon. Good luck to all teachers today!!

NeedaSnowday said...

PG County delayed two hours for tomorrow ... The fun begins!

BioPat said...

I would expect most systems to delay by 2 hours tomorrow just to get the buses started. In '77-'78 that was pretty much a standard procedure and I would expect most officials to go back to that as it worked well and kept kids from getting frostbite.

Sandy said...

Frederick co sent this email:

"With low temperatures predicted for Tuesday, January 7, FCPS shares the following tips on how to dress during cold weather:

*Wear layers of loose-fitting, lightweight, warm clothing. Trapped air between the layers will insulate you. Outer garments should be tightly woven, water repellent and hooded.

*Wear a hat because 40% of your body heat can be lost from your head.

*Cover your mouth to protect your lungs from extreme cold.

*Mittens, snug at the wrist, are better than gloves.

Julee said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Julee said...

Blogger Julee said...
What a beautiful ice-blue map NWS has provided us. Not often that we get to see a map of our "neck o' the woods" done in in pale blues and lavenders. Looks like a paint strip of polar colors from Home Depot.

Didn't even SEE the library birds today. They must have winged it to the Bahamas.

Layerize everyone!

NeedaSnowday said...

HoCo says:

Dear Parents/Guardians,

As of 4:45 p.m., Monday, Jan. 6, HCPSS parents, students and staff should prepare for an on-time opening of all schools and offices for Tuesday, Jan. 7.

Please take precautions Tuesday morning to ensure your children are dressed appropriately for extremely cold weather. The Howard County Health Department website (www.hchealth.org) features cold weather safety prevention tips that you may find helpful.

Any departure from an on-time opening will be communicated on our website (www.hcpss.org), social media pages and select news sources, which can be found online at www.hcpss.org/news/weather.shtml.

Thank you.

Leslie said...

They do seem to leave an out at the end. Frederick Co. sent an email with advice on how to dress the kids tomorrow. Just saw on Channel 4 that Montgomery Co is open.

ssmd said...

Not sure about other counties but BCPS has HSAs so I think they are doing all they can to open on time .....

BioPat said...

You're right ssmd, with HSA's every effort will be made to open on time. Yet, they still have to get the buses started tomorrow morning. VA schools have shut down for tomorrow, I guess they don't wear coats in VA, oh well we'll see what happens in the morning.

On another note, Andy what are you seeing for Friday. I know warmer air will move in one the polar vortex lifts but are we seeing rain?

mayawild said...

Tomorrow will be interesting. I thought they would close, but it seems like I was wrong. My students DO NOT have the clothes for these extreme temperatures. And commutes from an hour to 2 to get to school. BCPSS please look out for the kids!

NeedaSnowday said...

Ok, some kids are quite clever.... Check out a couple tweets in any school system's twitter account.... I am chuckling at some of them... A few make ya cringe though....

BP....be interested in Andy's take for end of week. Kind of looks weaker than originally anticipated.

NeedaSnowday said...

Harford County Public Schools will be CLOSED tomorrow, Tuesday, January 7, employees CODE BLUE

Amy said...

My high school in hoco is undergoing a renovation so my kids travel outside between classes, and we aren't talking a couple of steps. I'm not super confident in the ability of my trailer to keep us warm...

BioPat said...

Good luck Amy, the next 2 days could be tough I hope the heating system works well in those buildings.

BioPat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I would watch Thursday still. After this front passes models should be able to paint a better picture. There is some possibilty there and it still is a threat fir minor accums. Southern and southeastern york county closed schools Tuesday. Down to 7.8 degrees here now.

ravensbbr said...

And...-1F here in NE Carroll highlands. It's been 15 years since I've seen the mercury on that side of the ledger, and that was up in New England...

BioPat said...

Did HoCo and AA Co have a heat wave? I cannot believe so many systems are going in to school on time. Now, wait for the parent complaints when the buses are late picking students up this morning.

Amy said...

Alright HoCo, heading out to pay my car starts and that the heat in my trailer is adequate #not amused

BioPat said...

Good luck Amy, I know they had trouble with cooling last year in the "Villas". Everything got moldy because the air was not working correctly hopefully you'll have plenty of heat today and tomorrow. BTW, the problem was corrected by the 2nd week of school last year, I am hopeful it is still running like a champ!
At the Mount our guys are always outside as they travel from building to building for classes, I'm glad we are 2 hours late today and also tomorrow due to a faculty meeting in the morning.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

-2.8. Now off to the road!

Kathi said...

No heat wave here in AA County! It was 4 degrees at 8:30 when I finally got up (I'm retired) and I was shocked when I saw that the kids went to school on time. I had to go pick up my grandson at midnight last night from work and it was brutal with the wind!

Amy said...

The heat held today but the kids were icicles. With midterms next week it was important for the to be here.

BioPat said...

I am so thankful for Dec exams at the Mount. We had a 2 hour delay but went in to school at regular time. My classroom was frigid and within minutes of my arrival the pipes into the heater burst and began to flood my classroom. Fortunately our maintenance staff jumped into action and were able to cap off the bad pipes and restore heat to the rest of the building. We figure had we not been there when that happened we would have had to shut the building down and close for the day. A little shuffling of classrooms and we were back in business, great job and thanks to Matt and Dave!

BioPat said...

Looks like Thursday into Friday could be a bit more than original ideas. Too far out for specifics but looks interesting!

Tina said...

We live on the shores of a lake in downstate DE... the moment the wind finally died today around sunset, boom, skim of ice covered the whole thing. But, it'll be gone in a coupla days. I grew up here and remember ice skating on it most of the winter... how many days in a row of below freezing did we have to get to that point? Dunno, but it had to have been a lot. The ice would boom and split during the night... I don't know if that's gonna happen again anytime soon. But it might!

BioPat said...

Looking more like Friday morning could be a ice problem in Baltimore. The Canadian model is showing ice for Baltimore and snow for southern PA into NJ. I guess we'll have to watch over the next 24-30 hours.

Leslie said...

Latest thoughts on tomorrow? A delay would be nice, I'm tired!

NeedaSnowday said...

Event: Freezing Rain Advisory
Alert:
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO
9 AM EST FRIDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH INCH.

* TIMING...BEGINNING PREDAWN...ENDING BY MID MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BE ICY AND SLIPPERY...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
Instructions: A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Target Area:
Anne Arundel
Carroll
Charles
Frederick
Harford
Howard
Montgomery
Northern Baltimore
Prince Georges
Southern Baltimore

Amy said...

What what! Can I get a two hour delay people

Mike Cheuvront said...

Time to start a new thread. My finger gets tired from scrolling down. LOL

BioPat said...

It appears JB is thinking school delays may be in line tomorrow; if the timing is on the mark I agree. I've been prepping my classes all day for probable delay tomorrow while we're in the middle of a lab. I just think it's better to be prepared whenever possible.

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