Sunday, January 19, 2014

Learning from the past.
Preparing for the future.

5:19 PM 1/19 (Forecaster Foot) While we have a moment in between wintry weather patterns, we would like pause for a historical note. On Sunday, January 26, 2014 our team, and this website, crosses a milestone that none of us could have predicted or imagined. 

At approximately 3:00 PM on that day, the Foot's Forecast experience marks 10 years of authentic local weather. (Note: If you want to skip the history and just get the local weather, visit this link to our Maryland+ section)

But before going on to wax philosophic about science, technology and society, we stop to just say THANK YOU...
  • To our loyal and effervescent cadre of readers here that make our little alcove of weather intelligence collaboration a respite from the mad world around us. Your dedication to each other and to keeping this site a valuable resource for many has never been lost on our team.
  • To our indefatigably wise advisors whose hours of posting, reposting, updating, covering and advising would rival Cal Ripken in their longevity of continuous service. (There's one difference, people like Advisor Brad Lear have done all this for free, for years.) There is no other way to say it: Without you, all this would not be here. 
  • To our exuberant and inspiring forecasters, who despite challenging life circumstances, bone-crushing schoolwork loads (and occasionally, sleep) have built a vibrant reputation as the gold standard of a go-to team for local forecasts. If you know or see a forecaster, take a moment to convey your thanks for all they do.
Returning to our roots. As we prepare to turn the page on the next decade, we want to understand what makes this weather enterprise worth it for you? Our intent is not to seek accolades, it is to clearly know WHAT READERS WANT as we gear up for big changes to our business model, and prepare to announce some long-awaited improvements to the FF experience. Let us know in the comments what you want to see from "Foots" this year or next year, or five years from now. 

The back story about how got here might be too long for a E-True Hollywood script, too cerebral to rank near Star Trek, and when stacked against the world we face ahead, may not really matter. 
  • But for the thousands who have come to rely on the authentic local updates from students, teachers and scientists alike, we know it matters.
  • For the parents who check on us faithfully every day when dressing their children, we know it matters.
  • For the emergency managers, Superintendents and County Executives, who when given a weather briefing by their staff, are known to ask "the question"-- we know it matters.

As the world moves into what some expect will be an increasingly turbulent period, with rising income inequality, questions about net neutrality and declining trust in our institutions, we know what we do here matters more than ever. We have learned that many on this site come here not just for the weather, but because we are not of the corporate world and are not a publicly-funded institution. We are, however, comprised of local people in your neighborhoods and communities who share your passion for weather. It is unfiltered, but more importantly, we hope it is an example of how civil society can succeed when guided by the principles of collaboration, respect for others and integrity. 


Over time we have sought to achieve a careful balance of guiding youth forecasters with sound science from professionals, meteorologists and educators. We have learned that many readers appreciate the student engagement, and come back because of the passion and dedication to the craft. We also know that many of you "just want the weather." 


In striving for the right blend of staying local and authentic, while planning for future sustainability of the organization, we first want to take a step back and ask what you think really matters. We think back over the past 10 years of the Foot's Forecast journey, and realize an incredible journey it has been in collaboration, weather, partnerships and friendships. We will convey due diligence to marking these experiences in a series of articles during our "Anniversary Week" starting Friday, January 24 and ending January 31. 


The next 10 years will bring even more swift readjustments in society, technology and security. To position for the next decade of changes, on January 26 - our mission statement, business model, and objective for the future will take on a new life. While the original themes of "Basic Weather For Busy People" and "Local Weather, Trusted Team" will continue to be the operational mode of our work, we have established a new foundation for our vision and value system. 


It is one we believe reflects the new nature of the world to come, where businesses and governments collaborate to promote the common good of all people. Our view of the future is one where high school and college students, like the ones on our team, are able to earn a living wage using their talents to serve the public, and not be enslaved to a life of debt. Our expectation of the next 10 years is where people see opportunities to improve the community around them, and find ways to appropriately make that difference in the lives of others, because they believe in the values of civility and respect. 


To prepare for, and better participate in this future, Foot's Forecast LLC is being re-designated as a "Civil Society Enterprise." While we may listed be a "Limited Liability Company" our mission has always been to serve the common good in doing our part in helping save lives and protect property. Any funds that we earn from client work, website traffic or apparel sales is 100% reinvested into services for readers, development of forecasters, and protecting our brands of intellectual property. We know many of you want to see a Smartphone app, and some have requested more easily accessible, low cost decision services.


We believe you, the readers, already understand that we are local, and we feel fortunate to have earned your trust over the years. But before we embark on the next 10 years of the journey, we want to know what you think really matters in our plans and efforts to continue serving the public with "Authentic Weather for a Civil Society" ? 


Your input is welcome, and in the weeks ahead, we hope you will join us in a hike down history lane as we thank you for trusting us with your weather.


Bright skies,

Rich Foot
CEO & Founder
Foot's Forecast LLC



95 comments:

BioPat said...

Rich, "Congratulations!" Well done my friend! Congratulations to the entire team for all the hard work and commitment to getting it right each time!

ravensbbr said...

Congrats! :-)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Great job!!!!

Kathi said...

Congratulations to everyone for your hard work! I'm not a teacher, have no kids in school and am retired but it is your team that I trust to give me solid, honest information!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I really like the potential in this little storm. It is compact and potent with cold air feeding in to the system and coastal intensification. The storm keeps trending wetter. If the trends continue wetter overnight I could see a Winter Storm Watch by lunch.

Jeremy S. said...

Yeah. Just saw the High-Res NAM. If that verifies, everyone could get a nice thumping of snow (especially in southern areas, but also everywhere else in the Mid-Atlantic region).

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

SREFS are also wetter. Looking like a solid 4-8 inch event is possible. Let's see if the 0z is on board. I would not make a forecast off of the SREF but the trend for WARNING criteria snow is very encouraging.

Jeremy S. said...

4-8" where?

Cathy in BelAir said...

Like Kathi, I am not a teacher, my kids are grown, and I am retired. I also agree with her 100% about the adults and students involved with FF - Congratulations and thanks for doing such a great job! I may also add that it has been said that "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery".....well, there are others out there trying their best, but can"t come close to this group! Thanks for sharing your talent and passion with us....keep up the good work!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I expect Winter Storm Watches in the am for 4 to 8 inches of snow regionwide including DC, Balt, Annapolis, York, Lancaster, and Phil and the eastern shore of MD.

BioPat said...

Right Andy, Winter Watches now posted. With a 10 am arrival could make for a messy day for schools. Already forecasting on the upper end of snowfall so with winds and extreme cold that could knock schools out of the water by Wednesday. I am sure AA Co will be most cautious with their call on Wednesday, lets hope other follow.

Amy said...

Huh, I wake up grumpy since I can't have coffee until after my glucose test. Then a ray if sunshine as I see baltimore in a huge 3-5" prediction zone on local tv.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Amy,

4-8 is a safe call at this point.

As it stands now 6-8, with an isolated 9-10 inch total is not out of the question. Models continue to trend wetter and this will be a VERY COLD storm. Even a slight uptick to .5 qpf could put our region in the 6-12 range. VERY HIGH ratio snow which is rare for our parts.

Be interesting to track qpf forecasts today.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Statement as of 3:33 AM EST on January 20, 2014

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through
Tuesday evening...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Tuesday
morning through Tuesday evening.

* Precipitation type... snow

* accumulations... potential for five inches or more.

* Timing... Tuesday through Tuesday evening. The heaviest snow will
be late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* Temperatures... dropping into the teens.

* Winds... becoming north 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

* Impacts... roads will be snow covered and slippery. The
combination of snow and blowing snow will reduce visibility to
below one-half mile at times. Travelling may be dangerous
Tuesday. The morning and evening commute may be impacted by the
snow.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the
latest forecasts.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Statement as of 4:35 AM EST on January 20, 2014

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late tonight through Tuesday
evening...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from late tonight through
Tuesday evening.

* Locations... southern Pennsylvania.

* Hazard types... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... 4 to 8 inches of snow are possible.

* Timing... late tonight into Tuesday evening.

* Impacts... travel may be slowed significantly due to heavy snow.

* Winds... north 10 to 15 mph.

* Temperatures... teens and lower 20s.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is the potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel. For
the latest weather information... go to weather.Gov/ctp or stay
tuned to NOAA Weather Radio.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

This is shaping up to be the largest area wide snowstorm in years. What is impressive is it will be followed by near record cold so our snow pack will last.

Tuesday through the following week will look and feel like the arctic.

Up here in the barbaric hinterlands we are ready. I have plenty of firewood, furniture, and trash to burn for heat.

Finally speaking to the wife after she committed the largest transgression against our vows. She brought home generic Sloppy Joe Mix. Rest assured that is now in the compost pile and the real deal fills 3 shelves of the pantry.

Other than that let the Major East Coast Storm of 2014 begin!

gertrudemary said...

Rich-Congratulations to you and your team; but mostly to you for never giving up. You had a dream and you have followed it and opened it to all of us.

You are the best! and your weather reports are right-on!

kyle farmer said...

How high will the ratios be

Kathi said...

I think a big pot of beef veggie soup is in order! Off to the store!

Jeremy S. said...

Is that our storm in North/South Dakota?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

SREF plum data, combined with 12 z nam, show a solid 9 inch snowstorm for the BWI area. Up to 12 inches is possible along the Mason Dixon line based on this guidance. We will see what the GFS does.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

GFS is great and everything trends wetter. It might not be done trending.

7-10 inches is my general call. Near the Mason Dixon line there could be 12 inches plus. Ratios will be insane toward the end of the event. I could see 20-30-1 ratios at the tail end as the arctic cold pours in. This will knock schools out for 2 days,

Syracuse1 said...

Andy,

School in Harford County are out anyway today. tuesday and Wed.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Not sure about other counties in MD, but here in PA SED is open. Weather will change that.

This storm has modeled is looking like a classic major snowstorm. The vort passage and intensification is really a thing of beauty. I think the models will trend QPF up in response to the bombing storm.

Syracuse1 said...

The Winter Storm Watch has now been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.

Let the fun begin!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

They will wait to upgrade their totals in that warning language until tonight. 6-10 inches is a virtual lock based on guidance for central MD. All models are wet and keep coming wetter in response to the ideal vort passage. .6 qpf x15:1 ratio is 9 inches of snow. Ratios will be higher. This is a REAL SNOWSTORM. 6-10 is an easy and CONSERVATIVE call.
ENJOY!

Amy said...

AACO OEM just made an announcement about the warning on their Facebook page. Citing totals of 4-6" with more possible they asked residents to prepare for a significant snow event. So much for bread, milk and TP being in stock.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

SREFs continue the party. 6-10 inches for almost all of us, with someone perhaps measuring a FOOT, in honor of FOOT'S FORECAST!

Kathi said...

Woo! Hoo!

BioPat said...

Already put grad students on notice for Wednesday if schools are closed we won't meet. Got stuff for dinner for tomorrow evening. Soup can wait until the weekend. Hopefully the Catholic schools remember County schools are closed tomorrow so we make our own decisions.

Amy said...

Justin berk has similar snow totals in his fb page. Very excited. Just be prepared. Blowing snow is awful to drive in. Think ahead for work plans

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS BALTIMORE/WASH
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWTUESDAY MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A WINTER STORM WARNING ISIN EFFECT FOR SAID REGION FROM 9Z TUES TO 00Z WED. IN THE COURSE
OF TUESDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES EAST RESULTING IN ENHANCED LIFT. THE
SFC LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS OBX AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE
EAST AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY TUES MID-MORNING.

12Z ECMWF CAME AROUND TO JOIN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH CAME IN WETTER AND WITH A MORE INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. BANDING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS GFS AND NAM HAVE AN
AREA OF FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE NEAR
MIDDAY TUESDAY MOVING SE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON IMPACTING DC AND
NOVA. THIS MAY BE TOO PRECISE AT THIS TIME BUT SIGNS LIKE THESE
WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL TOTALS. TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND 4-6 INCHES EAST OF THE BL RIDGE. IF
BANDING DOES HAPPEN... TOTALS OF UP TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER A STRONG SNOW BAND. TRAVELING WILL BE HAZARDOUS TUES
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPS WILL NOT FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION. MX TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY
TUESDAY AND DROP INTO THE TEENS BY THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AROUND THE METROS TO
-10 WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Channel 2 news has 10-11 for Baltimore and Washington area. Not a bad call.

Tina said...

I just wish it would start earlier in the morning so the Fed Gov't would be forced into a proactive mode. It doesn't apply to me, but I have a lot of friends who are gonna be stuck in traffic tomorrow afternoon/evening if the Feds don't close early (or, better yet, not open to begin with).

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Tina,

Stuck in traffic won't be as much as an issue as just stuck period. If you do not have a 4x4 most conventional cars will likely be left sitting on the side of the road. Stay off the road after 10:00am or plan to stay in your car. Wednesday morning won't be any better with 2 degree temps and 30mph gust with blowing and drifting. This is a 2 day high impact event. Nearly a foot of pixie dust and high winds is a serious situation for travel.

Tina said...

Agreed, I can see another disaster of beltway parking lot-itis and allll the hand-wringing afterward about how to prevent it in the future.

At any rate, we're snuggled in with any and all supplies and are good for several days of nothing, but enjoying the show. If/when I rule the world, that will apply to everyone on a day like tomorrow!

Gaede4 in the POD said...

Rich, you need to reevaluate your website + Facebook pages. You used to have everything in one place - on the website. Now you have occasional updates on the website, with a complete scattering of info across multiple Facebook pages that cover the same area. Mid-atlantic, mid-Atlantic winter, mid-Atlantic severe, central Maryland, etc. I never know where to go anymore so I just don't come anymore.

Go back to the beginning. Create logical zones, by state, region, whatever, and then put it all on your website. Eliminate the confusion.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Latest runs of RGEM show a 992 low off OC. If this is not overdone and globals latch on to increasing corresponding qpf to .75 then 10-15 inch totals are not out of the question. The wet trends continue and if they do we might have to revisit totals higher. For now 6-10 is a good call. All thoguh of the GFS agrees then that call is low.

Amy said...

Tell the local news to quit killing my snow buzz. WJZ says 3-6. I call BS, but it still brings me down

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

3-6 inches is possible at this point and so is a Tsunami or tornado, but such predictions are not based on any reasonable model or scientific data. That is a random number a baseless forecast. What a public disservice.

BioPat said...

JB is calling for a 7am - 9am start time for Baltimore area. Understood that initially a lot will dry up in the atmosphere before the air gets saturated enough to fall to the ground. So, since the private schools may have to make an independent call lets see what happens.
I am worried my daughter is scheduled to work 9 am - 1 pm tomorrow. I don't think many will be thinking about shopping for Under Armour clothing tomorrow morning.

BioPat said...

HoCo staff to report at 10 with a re-assessment at 8 am. I would say HoCo teachers will be out Tuesday and Wednesday. I guess we'll have to wait a bit for the other systems.

BioPat said...

AA County closed, I guess they learned something in the last fiasco. Good for them being proactive.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Good Call for AA co. 0Z NAM crushes central MD. 8-12 inches.

ravensbbr said...

Geese and ducks were in the air all day today flying around, feeding up for the storm. Unfortunately, their flight paths did not coincide with our blinds.

Oh well, stoked to see what this storm will bring.

Amy said...

Let the complaining commence. Personal friends are wondering why aaco called it based on a forecast. Can't make them happy. Many think the forecast is a joke and no snow will show up. I'm not thrilled that HoCo is taking a reassessment standpoint. The last thing I want is for them to see no flakes at 8 am, have us come in at 10am and then realize their oopsie once we ate all stuck attempting to get back home.

Jeremy S. said...

Anyone look at WXrisk. This guy's post are filled with rage and sometimes out of control. Andy, look at the last post he made regarding the 0z NAM.

BioPat said...

Who is WXrisk and where is he posting?

kyle farmer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Amy said...

BioPat! I just read it on the Facebook page. You should be able to search wxrisk

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Gfs is 10 to 12 with isolated totals of 14 in central md. I am not concerned with other forecasts. I follow the computer models, trends, nws forecast analysis, my experience, and I listen to the analysis of others. My analysis is never a guess, but based on raw data and trends. Models and data are only tools not gospel. I try and look at the right tool for the right situation. No sense in being nasty or crude. This is a fun hobby and if you learn the what when and whys of it you can generally come up with a solid forecast.

kyle farmer said...

The guy is very unprofessional and annoying stay to JB's thoughts and foots

Tina said...

I've visited WxRisk a coupla times... needed Xanax and a drink after the almost unreadable postings and hatefulness. And it's not trolls, it's a way of life there, I think.

Saw a couple of people-on-the-street on local news commenting that they don't believe these possible snowfall amounts... that it's not gonna amount to much of anything. Totally poo-pooing, like they just somehow KNOW it's not possible. Dang, I'd like to see how they make out tomorrow. Yeesh.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Tina,
Never make a decision based on what people on the street say or do. Make an informed decision on reliable data. You will fair better 95% of the time then random rambling.

Tina said...

And that's why I'm here and at JB's site! :) I'd been hoping the Canadian was right a week or so ago and, viola, it came through. I know I'm a weather nut, and have learned a ton reading you guys (and then using Google for research), but I do NOT understand how people can not want to know more about the weather around them. What's coming, how, why.

::getting off soap box::

Be safe tomorrow everyone!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

All 0z guidance wet again. Up to .7 qpf around Baltimore. 15-20/1 ratios yields 10-14 inches of snow. That is a general range and does not factor convective banding, that occurs in coastal system.

My final call is 8-12 for central MD with isolated 14 inch totals. ENJOY THE SNOW AND EXTREME COLD. Could be near zero Wednesday morning with 25mph to 30mph wind gusts. This will be a disruptive storm for several days.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

06Z gfs even WETTER. 10-15 inches area wide. Isolated totals of 18 inches possible to the north of Baltimore if the 6z verified.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS BALT WASH
The low will pass by to our south today before rapidly intensifying
tonight as it moves out to sea. Forcing from the surface low as well
as the upper-level disturbance will cause precipitation to break out
over the area today...spreading from west to east across the area
this morning. Very cold air will filter in from the north during
this time...causing the ptype to be snow across all locations. The
combinations of high snow to liquid ratios...overrunning...and
frontogenetical forcing will all line up over the area causing heavy
snow to impact the region. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect
for the entire area today through this evening. Snowfall
accumulations around six to ten inches are expected with the highest
amounts most likely in the Potomac Highlands as well as northern
Maryland and northern Virginia. Locally higher snowfall totals are
possible due to the banding nature of the precipitation.


Drier air will move in tonight as the low pulls away from the area.
Snow will end from west to east this evening...but it will turn out
quite windy due to a strong pressure gradient between the deepening
low and Arctic high pressure over the Midwest. Blowing and drifting
snow will continue through tonight even after the snow ends. The
northwest winds will usher in bitterly cold air...causing min temperatures
to range from below zero in the mountains to the single digits
elsewhere. Wind chill values will drop below zero tonight with the
coldest spots in the mountains. A wind chill warning is in effect
tonight for the Potomac Highlands and a Wind Chill Advisory is in
effect elsewhere

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

BLIZZARD WARNINGS might be hoisted this afternoon in Central MD. Winds will frequently gust to 40 MPH.

BioPat said...

Looks like a wild day on tap. Be safe everyone who is heading off to work today. Most school systems are closed but HoCo teachers are still expected to go in by 10 am - isn't that a bit ridiculous considering that HoCo Govt is closed?? Hopefully they'll re-evaluate by 8 am. Waiting to see if my daughter will be going in to work today. She will be off at 2 but still worried about the drive.

Amy said...

My husband and I made the decision that I'm not going in to Hoco if they don't cancel. I'm 6.5 months pregnant and it's just not worth the risk. I will be stunned if they don't cancel but I also know their blood from a turnip mentality with teachers.

Jeremy S. said...

So, Andy, are saying this could turn out to qualify as a blizzard?

BioPat said...

Wise choice Amy. My husband is up, been to the grocery store and now getting ready to leave for school. I do not understand why teachers cannot work from home on a day like today, doesn't make sense to put lives at risk for a professional day.We do have the technology to upload grades, prepare and even teach lessons from home. These could be productive days if administrators would utilize the technology we use everyday. I guess we have to expect them to learn the technology first.

Amy said...

I was told my principal didn't have the authority to authorize a work from home day. I asked yesterday given my large commute and that was the response I got. I've convinced my husband it's not worth going I because it looks fine now and then get stuck or get in an accident once it looks bad, he can telecommute as well. Today is a work day so there is no PD planned. We can all work from home so the wait and see approach boggles the mind.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Jeremy,

The NWS MIGHT issue a Blizzard Warning for late afternoon to evening. The winds will gust frequently at or above 40 which exceeds the criteria. Double digit powder snow, high wind, frigid cold, and serious drifting. This is the real deal.

Jeremy S. said...

Now...if only it would start snowing here in Reisterstown....

BioPat said...

Amy, under the circumstances I would believe you have an HR situation. If the PD is simply a work day then it could be accomplished easily at home. I believe that response says a lot ( or little) about the principal. You have made a wise choice under the circumstances.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Who in their right mind would travel into what is unraveling to be a double digit snowfall and blizzard conditions. Unless you have an emergency and a 4X4 you will not be able to drive after 10:00 am in a conventional car and will get stuck. Temps will drop through the teens today to near zero tonight, with whiteout conditions. Not everyone has common sense, but if you do use it and please stay off the road.

BioPat said...

Even Under Armour closed today and called employees at 5 am! I agree Andy, why would one knowingly head out with the expectation of snow within the hour. Let's see what HoCo chooses to do at 8 am.

Tina said...

Andy, so many people still just do not believe this is going to be "that bad." I have friends and family members who are finally getting the idea from me that this is serious, really serious. But some still think I'm over-blowing it. Because I can't say that I "KNOW" it will happen.

::gritting teeth::

Tina said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Amy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Amy said...

Hoco closed but you will know only if you read their FB page. Web site says to check back at 8am still.

Anonymous said...

waiting for the first flakes to fall here in glen burnie


smittywa (julie)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

All roads and surfaces covered. Moderate snow falling and 21 degrees.

Demensira said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tara said...

Snowing in Woodbine, MD... not far from Baltimore

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Tina,

I understand why people doubt it. All local weather was calling for virtually nothing yesterday. Now the gears have shifted so it takes time to sink in. People just have no weather literacy and are spoon fed baseless forecasts by cut and paste media outlets.

Weather changes and forecasts constantly evolve, but in the world of canned tv forecasts the truth is lost in the business model.

National weather service is the best, although they have rigid guidelines to follow. I like their forecast disos and their mets are top notch. That is one government agency that really does not get enough credit.

I never watch tv forecasts except for entertainment and not weather forecast news.

kyle farmer said...

Thundersnow possible?

Loosend said...

This seems to be showing traits of a coastal storm but I thought it was a clipper system. Where am I off here? Andy? Thanks.

Tara said...

Snow at BWI

ravensbbr said...

NE Carroll covered, 24 degrees and dropping fast. 2 inches+ on the ground, wind already whipping pretty good...

Amy said...

No snow in pasadena yet. ..

NeedaSnowday said...

Amy, I find looking at HoCo Twitter page much quicker ....you don't even need Twitter to have access to it! I'm waiting to see how they react to having grades in on certain timeframe??!!

Things here in the Timonium area are covered ... snow is moderately falling.. small flakes!

Blizzard ya say Andy?!

BioPat said...

Snowing at a moderate pace here in Catonsville. It stated around 9 am and picked up the pace quickly. Change in Under Armour's plans they opened so kiddo off to work. We'll see how long they keep the store open today. Everyone be safe out there!

Tina said...

BioPat, what the heck? Close, open?? That's just crazy! They're probably already getting ready to close (for a second time, rolling eyes). The traffic cams show 83 north of the city is getting covered and traffic's really slowing down. The car-be-que at Mt. Carmel Road/N83 might doom that road if they don't get the wreck moved pronto.

What.a.mess.

Jeremy S. said...

Andy, some people are saying that a positive tilt in the trough can make the storm an underperformed. Should be concerned?

Jeremy S. said...

Andy, some people are saying that a positive tilt in the trough can make the storm an underperformed. Should be concerned?

kyle farmer said...

Dry slot too?

Jeremy S. said...

Dry slot where? Virginia?

kyle farmer said...

Yea is that one or not

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

No dry slot. This is a clipper that is redeveloping into a coastal storm. Clippers are not this powerful alone, but this storm is bombing out, and that bombing out and redevelopment, along with arctic air feeding into the system will enhance precip and rates. Do not focus on radar but energy as radar depicts precip and energy track is what will dictate redevelopment or precip whic radar will show building and back building. If you are in central MD when all is said and done you will have 8-12 inches on the ground. Where convective banding sets up there could be 14 (in some areas). Winds will kick up this afternoon and there could be Blizzard conditions especially around or after 3:00 pm. Blowing and drifting will be a major problem tonight and in the morning, and wind chills will be well below zero with actual air temps near zero. Salt treatments will not be effective with temps hovering near zero.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Lets move this to the comments section above for 1/21.

Tina said...

::moving northward::

BioPat said...

Snow has definitely moderated but the temperature is dropping rapidly and whatever is hitting an untreated surface is freezing. Road crews are doing a great job but it is easy to see how this storm will overpower them quickly as it picks up and the temperatures dive. We just ran out for some envelopes and found it easy to get around now but not for long.