Friday, January 31, 2014

Now is the winter of our discontent

Now is the winter of our discontent
- 1594 Shakespeare play Richard III: Act 1, Scene 1
- 1961 novel by John Steinbeck

Photo credit: The Science Comedian.
Disclaimer: The amount of snow on the reader, or in the background,  should not be interpreted as
a subliminal "forecast" of how much snow we "actually" will fall in the storm early next week. ;-)

6:45 PM EST 1/31/14 As we approach the weekend, and many eyes turn to the Superbowl, we are also watching two potential storms for wintry precipitation. We also believe it is important to note the wide ranging effects of this multi-day event could have a high impact on much of the country, as indicated by this latest U.S. Hazards Assessment shown below from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. 


The first is a small wave that would impact the Mid-Atlantic states mainly on Monday, as it travels along the trailing cold front passing on Sunday. The second storm is much larger, but potentially warmer too as it would pick up moisture from both the eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. This storm would be set for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Precipitation forecasts for the Monday event are for mostly a wintry mix. It is uncertain if the system will pass to our south, or move slightly north and bring a minor-moderate snow event to central MD. As is normally the case with complex winter storms in the Eastern U.S., several outcomes are possible depending on how the different waves of low pressure interact with cold air in the region.



At this time, we current see three possible scenarios:


  • Scenario A - The Kitchen Sink Storm: Monday storm tracks slightly north and west of us, but we have a cold air wedge over central MD, resulting in all possible precipitation types. This scenario would start as snow, then switch to freezing rain with ice accumulation possible, then finally end as all rain on Wednesday.
  • Scenario B - The February Thaw: If the region is exposed to enough warm, sub-tropical air, the majority of our precipitation could turn out to be rain for the bigger storm on Tuesday into Wednesday. 
  • Scenario C - The Big Snow: A more easterly/southerly track of these two Low pressure systems developing along the Sunday cold front would lead to a significant winter storm for much of the Mid-Atlantic with heavy wet snow Tuesday into Wednesday, ending as freezing rain.


In our Winter of Discontent (for those who would rather do without the snow and storms, we hope this respite on Friday and Saturday will help!) We will continue to update you on this developing situation and make sure that our analyses is, as always, grounded in sound, observable science and reasoned interpretation of verifiable data.

Collaborators: Forecasters Mike N. (MD), Mintong N. (MD), Jason M. (MD), Connor M. (MD) J. Baron (MD), PA Team Leader Andrew Barney, Mid-Atlantic Coordinator Justin Barker (VA), Advisor R. Foot

Regards,
The Foot's Forecast Winter Stormcast Team

125 comments:

Jeremy S. said...

Okay. In late December, when the early January storm was on the horizon, I started off a new post's comments section with saying that we should look ahead at the storm threat. We got the storm. Since, no one's commented yet: Let's look ahead to Monday's storm!

Morpheus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Morpheus said...

I'm with you Jeremy looking for a SNOW storm!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Monday is a hard beast to pin down. I wont even dare to guess. But heat up the sauce, fuel the blower and if tonights runs hold or trend better get ready for a 6 to 12 inch plaster bomb. Winter Storm Watches by dinner Saturday? This is an inside 72 hour pattern for sure. Never know what coukd pop, but this is popping on the models. If it continues someone could see 14? Time will tell.

NeedaSnowday said...

Jeremy I like the way you think....:)
I happen to have some of those same kind of "superstitions" during Ravens games!

Here's to seeing the confetti of white falling on Monday after SB.....

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Winter Storm Watches should be out for this afternoon. Looking great for a 6-10 inch heavy wet snowball snow.

Jeremy S. said...

For all of Central MD and DCA?

Jeremy S. said...

The latest Foot's Forecast post on Facebook is being really conservative with this storm...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Conservative is best. I think they will update after 12Z package. Tough set-up and best to be prudent and update later. Some parts of the area will have temp issues to start. I am more confident in the 6-10 idea so that is why I put it out there. Most models support that and the trends have been solid at this very short lead now. This is for all of central MD into southern PA.

ravensbbr said...

GFS likes Monday snow...for now.

And we all know what that means, in the words of Rick Moranis in the movie Spaceballs

"ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!"

kyle farmer said...

Andy would the ratios stay at 10-1 or would they be higher toward the end

Cathy in BelAir said...

Could someone clarify the "Central Maryland" area for me? I get excited about the snow when I read this blog, but then every map I look at seems to have the dividing line go right through Bel Air! I feel like the "red headed step child" here! lol Should we expect rain, snow, ice,
or all of it?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Central MD is Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, Howard, North half AA County. The rain snow line is the only issue. Everyone will have heavy snow in this area. How much is snow determines final numbers. It "appears" at this point 90% plus will be all snow for most of this region. Clearly the further north you are that is closer to 100% snow.

Cathy in BelAir said...

Thanks Andy!

Jeremy S. said...

This storm has really snuck up on us!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

It really has Jeremy, but in this pattern that is expected. Tons of energy and it was a matter of time before one or more would pop.

kyle farmer said...

No school again Monday hopefully. Glad I'm a senior these underclass man will be in school till July

NeedaSnowday said...

Annual Orlando field tirp coming.... Ha... You can always count on snow! You're welcome.... Ugh!

NeedaSnowday said...

Trip... Need an editing feature!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Ratios in this storm will be garbage. 8:1 to 10:1. Euro has about an inch of QPF. Even at 8:1 that is still 8 inches of heavy wet snow. Ratios could be up to 10:1 with rates so for me at least looking at all the data 6-10 inches is an easy call from central MD to southern Pa.

Lainy said...

Any idea what the timing for this storm will be?

Jeremy S. said...

So 8:1 ratios south and 10:1 ratios north? Andy, this is a little off topic, but what were the ratios for Snowmaggedon (if you can remember)?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...
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Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I am glad they issued a watch! This storm has the potential to cripple traffic in an epic way Monday morning with 1-2 inch per hour rates. This will be a significant snow and travel of any kind will be ill advised with the intensity and rates during peak drive times.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...


Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
311 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

MDZ003>006-009-010-501-502-VAZ027-028-030-031-042-503-504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-020400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.140203T0400Z-140203T2100Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-MONTGOMERY-
HOWARD-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...
FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
311 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND 30 MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...MAKING
TRAVEL DIFFICULT DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BELOW ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

These watch will be extended east to Harford County and south to the rest of Baltimore County and City later tonight. I'm glad the early headline is out.

Jeremy S. said...

Not too happy with the 18z NAM...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I had 28 inches of snow in the 2nd blizzard in February of 2010. The Nam right before the storm showed 1-2 inches. Never make a forecast from 1 model run, especially the NAM. The entire 18Z and 0Z run of all models must be looked at. Model runs are very wet and this is a step up for the NAM.

Jeremy S. said...

You serious about the NAM and Snowmaggeddon?! Geesh! I wonder what it thought was going to happen with the storm...

Amy said...

Evening news has storm still north of us. I do hope a waning is issued with the major traffic/ safety issues this could cause Monday AM

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Amy,

The storm is coming from the southwest. The watches will progress eastward and into southern PA, through Harford County, up to Philadelphia as we go through the night.

Monday morning will be a major problem from Baltimore North, and by mid morning from south of Baltimore torwad DC.

Alex Tinsley said...

Andy you need your own website or youtube channel. You called it.

NeedaSnowday said...

Harford Co now under watch... +1 Andy!

Becky said...

Is Baltimore City going to be in this Winter Storm Watc soon!!

Amy said...

Andy-
As long as th schools pay attention to the watches. My fear is that they'll see nothing falling, we will start school and be left with a snafu. I don't know if they'll be hesitant to call it since we've used so many days already.

BioPat said...

I have been reading all the posts on Monday's storm, still awaiting a final call on the numbers. JB in Atlanta and will make his call later this evening. Based on what maps I have seen and listening to all the input I'm with Andy on the 6 - 10" range. With the temps not quite as cold, so possibly not as dry, will be interesting to see if this follows the "overachiever" pattern.

Tina said...

Scary, heart-attack snow. And I think a lotta folks are still going to be surprised by it, regardless.

I just hope it starts early enough that the schools don't have to hem and haw about what to do. B/c Amy, you're right, they're really getting pushed against the wall about taking more time off and with a lot of winter to go.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Becky,

Don't worry about the watches just yet. They are based on internal nws probabilities and guidelines. The reason you don't see watches yet in the City and in AA county is they want more recent data concerning temperatures in those areas to increase their confidence that watch criteria will be met. Southern York County does not have a watch, but this area will be plastered. The NWS will issue one here by late tonight/morning.

Baltimore City is close with temperatures on models so they want to see better agreement before they pull the trigger on that watch and they have time as all the burbs are under a watch.

I think Baltimore City gets plastered because rates will overcome any warming so a Watch will likely come after the 0Z runs unless of course all the new data shows unexpected and higher temps.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Alex,

Thanks, but that's work and I am LAZY! This is fun so I'm right here with fellow snow nuts trying to put together a reasonable sense of what will happen.

I have about 14 years of experience chasing storms for fun, and it is just that fun. I always want to get the right idea concerning a forecast and use models, analysis, and experience as tools in putting one together.

Sometimes these tools fail us, but if you know how to use them and base your thinking on sound scientific principles and data you will be right more than wrong.

I am not a fan of local media forecasts which are canned and simplistic. Weather changes all the time and my goal is to keep one step ahead of those changes.

If sharing my insight helps others make wise decisions and plans based upon the "real forecast" then that's a win.

Winter weather is a passion and I think we all come here to Foot's forecast to share our energy with Mr. Foot and his team, and what they do for us on a day to day basis is invaluable.

Butch Dynomite said...

I want to thank you guys for filling my need for post fantasy football data speculation obsession.I look forward to posting someting cogent. Unroll then I just want to say " go snow"

Jeremy S. said...

So, Andy, you think central MD will jackpot with the storm? 6-10" seems like a bold forecast among other, but I like it and really do wish the forecast works out. You have a nice track record this winter!

Alex Tinsley said...

Well said sir.

Sandy said...

How about Tuesday-Wednesday?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Sandy, We are still figuring out the details and temps in this forecast. What happens Monday impacts that. So best to solve this puzzle first. Tuesday looks like a heavy mix of snow, sleet, and rain, but subject to change.

Jeremy S. said...

00z NAM took another step in the wrong direction.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Nam had problems with dynamic systems and is prone to convective feedback. Euro is best with southern stream storms, gfs northern. Euro and gfs blend is what hpc is using. I prefer euro for this system.

Jeremy S. said...

EURO was eye candy (so was Justin Berk's trusty Canadian model). Hope it works out like that.

Sandy said...

Yep. I figured but was just curious. I will be here watching as well! I will be a very happy teacher to not have to deal with post Super Bowl attitudes on Monday am!!

Jeremy S. said...

And, right on cue, the HI-Res NAM looks a ton better.

Adam Herb said...

Butch - I'm there too with the post-fantasy need for something... this is a particularly good winter to follow. Go Snow, indeed. And go Broncos!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Remember don't take this too seriously! It's WEATHER and WEATHER CHANGES!

I threw out 6-10 inches because I am CONFIDENT in that number based on RELIABLE DATA.

The reliable data, and trends, have painted that picture since lunch. It was not my wish, guess, etc, but a careful assessment of the data.

If there would ever be a change in the data, a 180 I would be the first to run and share that with you.

I like the 6-10 idea, have liked it all day, and continue to like that as a reasonable expectation from Baltimore City north.

I am watching temp trend for south of Baltimore City to have a better idea for them. It is a close call for 3 inches or less or 10 inches! That close because of the rain/snow line. I like the City on north for a wallop, and think the crew just south of the city will have aching backs from the heavy snow, just can't toss out any numbers yet with true confidence for areas like Crofton, Annapolis etc.

Alex Tinsley said...

Go snow (6-10 inches) & Go Seahawks!!

From a Ravens fan

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

For what it is worth, and this is Justin Berk's favorite model. Here is the LATEST HOT OFF THE PRESS Canadian. Is it right? Time will tell!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/12262437086/

Jeremy S. said...

That model's been consistent with showing a potent storm. Now, just a couple days before the storm, it's upped the totals yet again. I think it sees something that other models just don't. Maybe it's handling the situation better.

BioPat said...

Thanks Andy, still over 24 hours out so we'll just have to watch the temp. for verification. However, it did not get as warm today as anticipated so if that bears out tomorrow, I'll bet we're on the high end of those figures.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Euro at 0z is a massive hit. 6 to 10 baltimore north. Watches should extend by morning.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...
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Kathi said...

Is BWI included in this 6-10? Sure hope so!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Yes. Solid Warning criteria event for BWI proper, which is in AA County, per the Euro.

i Arnice said...

So...what's going to happen on Monday night/Tuesday for Baltimore City?

i Arnice said...

Well, actually...can I hear what's expected now for Baltimore City in the next 24 hours? I appreciate the model readings but they go right over my head.

Kathi said...

Yay! Thanks Andy!!

i Arnice said...

So...what's going to happen on Monday night/Tuesday for Baltimore City?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Arnice,

You need to drink a little! Let's take this one step at a time. Trends overall are colder and more frozen for mid week. Let this system and its massive energy clear our area then we can look. Models will be more accurate with one less player on the field.

Baltimore City commute looks to be a disaster if the EURO and the Canadian are correct Monday morning.

Never a certainty, but this data clearly shows a major mid atlantic snowstorm with heavy wet snow, intense snowfall rates.

If this comes to fruition as expected travel must be avoided by conventional car.

This will be a stormy week and the devil is in the details. This pattern is an under 72 hour pattern as we talked about for the last 10 days here. We just won't know the details until very close in, and things could POP at short lead times.

This one is POPPING. Watch the weather closely and if you like snow, ENJOY! KEVLAR IS POLISHED!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

BWI ECMWF (EURO MODEL)

QPF 1.13 inches. Standard ratio 10:1 is about 11 inches of snow. This will be a wet snow so average ratios will be 8:1 (estimate). About 9 inches of paste at the airport if the Euro is right using the degraded ratio.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Don't be surprised if isolated totals are higher. Convection potential is great, and a clap of thunder and lightening in central MD is not out of the question.

Amy said...

Checked NWS, still calling for rain snow line North of the city. They don't think snow until after 1pm for AA County. This spells school nightmare potential. Those temps need to trend colder and fast or I forsee a nasty surprise tomorrow.

NeedaSnowday said...

Amy... I wonder if NWS rely heavily on GFS which hasn't shown the same solution as the NAM, Euro or even Canadian model!

Channel 11 showing rain til 5AM .... When schools make the "call"...after that channel 11 saying snow from 7 AM to 5 PM moderate to heavy.... 3-6 inch range....

Utoh!

BioPat said...

Andy you're up early and well focused on this storm. NWS as reported by WBAL is interesting calling for "moderate to heavy snow from 7am - 5 pm with a 1-3" accumulation", now is there something wrong with this - who buys this kind of forecasting!! This will be a tough week for schools, hopefully they'll make decisions based on safety not the number of remaining snow days. Snow day issues can be sorted out after March.
Bottom line if you listen to what Andy is posting from his data you'll find it is in line with several others including Bastardi.

Amy said...

If local news has picked up an early snow event then we should be Gid. I just have nightmares about the early release wet did a few years ago which was a traffic nightmare. Took over two hours to get home from Columbia, normally a 30 minute drive. Beltway was at a stand still with cars running out of gas.

NeedaSnowday said...

In other news, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow ...six more weeks of winter

NeedaSnowday said...

Does anybody else have a good mental image of Andy out polishing the "beast "with a Cheshire cat grin on his face??

BioPat said...

After re-reading my last posts I did not mean to infer Andy has his own data. Like others he is reading the models and the Canadian model has been the most accurate of late. Canadian and Euro are coming in with similar info at this point so now the wait is on and the beef is thawing for a nice beef stew for Monday dinner.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

American models are catching on. NAM (A US SHORT TERM MODEL)(NOW)/Euro/Canadian are on board with a Wallop and similar to the Euro. National weather service will hold out unit the (GFS) American model follows. GFS is an outlier now showing a weaker solution.

NWS State College posted Advisories on the PA/MD border counties. WAYYYYYYYY underdone, and their logic actually is in conflict with the NWS office in Philly and Baltimore. All of this is no doubt based on the GFS their FLAGSHIP NOAA model.

I have seen them do this before, then when the GFS goes BOOM, they upgrade to Warnings and extend them as the event is closer.

During the President's Day Blizzard of 2003 Baltimore County was under a Winter Storm Warning for 10-15 inches of snow. I lived 3 miles north of it, did not have a watch, advisory, NANDA. 6 hours before the storm started there was an instant Warning posted and 30 inches fell without a WATCH!

We have had times where 6 inches fell here without even an Advisory, or an Advisory toward the end of the event while everyone is stuck on the road.

The data is there for this storm so the government will SLOWLY catch on.

NeedaSnowday said...

Tim Williams on channel 13 news calling for same general range as channel 11 Miri Marshall.

JB plans to issue his first call snow map by 830 today..

Jeremy S. said...

Now on hold for Justin Berk's forecast. I'm expecting totals on the larger end with him. And also, CAVE GFS...CAVE!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

GFS is TERRIBLE with southern stream systems in the winter. It will catch on closer in. NWS will not make any moves until after the 12Z runs.

Jeremy S. said...

That's really cutting it. NWS should be more responsible than this. I was talking to a few people last night. They thought we were getting some flurries! (I filled them in, of course.)

Alex Tinsley said...

Right now the weather channel app on my phone has us at 4-6 inches in Baltimore and Harford Co. It has been stuck at the mark since yesterday. In my opinion, they are anticipating more.

NeedaSnowday said...

Fortunately you don't need to have Facebook in order to view JBs page here's a link...https://www.facebook.com/pages/Justin-Berk-Meteorologist/54875673475

weed said...

Hi Andy......when's the next run for the models???

Kathi said...

Andy, did you ever go to bed last night? :) Or I should say this morning!

Jeremy S. said...

12z NAM goes KABOOM to central MD.

weed said...

What's that mean Jeremy?? When will we get an updated forecast for Central Md??

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Jermey means this:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/12268913993/

Jeremy S. said...
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Jeremy S. said...

Guess I should probably say northern central MD.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Really though there is no Kaboom. The most reliable data has consistently shown a 6-10 inch heavy wet snow. American models are catching on. SREF (short range ensemble mean forecasts) show the same.

Jeremy S. said...

You're right, Andy. Just compared to other runs of the NAM...it kind of went kaboom.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Kathi,

I have had plenty of sleep so don't encourage me. If I were any more lazy I would slip into a coma!

I don't spend a ton of time on this stuff. Quick hits on the data and in and out. I just want to stay on top of it for my own sake also.

Once the GOOFY GFS catches on you should see an expansion to watches or Warnings.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Not to bash the GFS, because it is a great model for certain type of set-ups, but it does struggle with east coast winter storms of southern stream influence. It is generally the last model to get the right idea.

Tom Flanagan said...

What about southern MD?

Tom Flanagan said...

Central Anne Arundel to be exact

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/12270417066/

Jeremy S. said...

Heard somewhere that the weather lady on WBAL said, " The whole Baltimore region is in 1-3", but we'll say 2-5" just to be safe." Is that forecasting? Educated guesses? People rely on their forecasts.

Jeremy S. said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

About: 10MM is .4, 20MM .8 30MM 1.2
liquid conversion. 10:1 snow to water ratio 4,8,12 inches of snow roughly. Find where you live on that map and corresponding shading in MM and convert with above data and you have your rough number. Kick it back a little because of low ratios (8:1 to 10:1)and you still have a POUNDING in central MD to PA.

From Baltimore city on north and west 6-10 inches is my continued idea with area near a foot in north Harford Baltimore and Carrol County.

Jeremy S. said...
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Jeremy S. said...
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Jeremy S. said...

I've hear talk of 4:1 ratios that will transition 8:1. This comes from people who live in D.C. area trying to forecast for people living up north. I'd assume they'd be grumpy.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

The above link is the high resolution NAM. It is in range and I trust it, also has support from the GGEM, and Euro. It handles mesoscale well at this time range.

Jeremy S. said...

12z GFS is absolutely terrible for everyone.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

GFS just doubled it's liquid output. Still catching up with all other guidance. It is an outlier, so if the Euro holds throw it out.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Radar in the GULF is lighting up.

Jeremy S. said...

It's having a problem with the temps. It's so outlier-ish, it's alarming.

Morpheus said...

In the past 4 years I have enjoyed following the winter storm forecast analysis, discussion, conjecture and superstition - but have only contributed a bit of humor and a few questions. I work up this morning an decided to go on record with my first prediction for my underserved area. I was thinking trace to 2 inches based upon the fact that our temperature yesterday was warmer than modeled and the track on the storm as of last night. Looking things over this morning, I think I will stick with that call. It also holds with the pattern of the other storms this winter. Ok now that I made the prediction I hope I am wrong and this storm dips south!

Jeremy S. said...

Morpheus, not to be creepy, but where do you live? North of I-70 or south?

Morpheus said...

Ha - oh sorry Bowie MD and rereading my post - typo I work up this morning nor work up.

Morpheus said...

Ahhh - can't seem to write woke up, perhaps I am still asleep and this storm is all just a dream.

Morpheus said...

Maybe it is a nightmare with the way the rain snow line seems to be setting up for this storm and the one on it's heals....I miss the 2009/10 pattern!

Jeremy S. said...

Temps at 52 degrees here. Are we okay?

Kathi said...

Remember, it was 55 degrees here in MD the day before the Jan. 20th storm....

Jeremy S. said...

Yes, but this storm is different...

kyle farmer said...

There was a lot more cold air to work with then

Kathi said...

I know, but I'm a LOT older than most of you young'uns and have experienced these scenarios many times in my life where it can be 60 degrees one day and a blizzard the next!

Julee said...

I remember when there WAS no internet and the TV weathermen would say "chance of snow tomorrow" and we just had to wake up and see for ourselves. Serendipity!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Euro looks like the nam. Heavy snow. Easy 6 to 10 inches.

ravensbbr said...

Well, snow or no snow, there's....absolutely nothing I can do to change the outcome...so it's time to go to the range, and then back home for what could be an epic Super Bowl.

Yes, Roger Goddell, I said Super Bowl and didn't pay you or your band of thieves any money for the unauthorized use of the phrase "Super Bowl".

Super Bowl, Super Bowl, Super Bowl.

Come get me. :-P

kyle farmer said...

Andy are temps a issue they are approaching 50.

Morpheus said...

Kyle - we are creeping up on 60 here in Bowie...

kyle farmer said...

I'm getting worried we don't have as much cold as last time when we were fifty the day before it snowed and it keeps rising this is crazy

kyle farmer said...

60 wow just reached fifty in bel air

Morpheus said...

57.7 and holding actually but not a good sign for being on the snow side of this event for us lowlanders.

Amy said...

Don't stress gentlemen. The weather is going to do what it will do. This time of year, a severe temp drop is not uncommon. It just means the ground will be warm and our wet sloppy mess will be sloppier. Bowie would have been a stretch for a warning I think. Enjoy the Super Bowl and the model updates as the night progresses.

Amy said...

I don't know if I can watch this game.