No Weekend Storm, But Wait... There's More.

No Weekend Storm, But Wait... There's More.

4:00 AM 2/7 - As many already know, earlier fears of a potential weekend coastal event have diminished with each passing run of the computer "ensemble" averages. However, the pattern remains fully primed to deliver additional wintry weather events through the next 10 days or more. 

(Earlier post) 10:10 AM 2/5 - We have been tracking developments for a potentially significant to high impact storm which could affect the Mid-Atlantic coast this weekend..or could not.

Despite widespread claims elsewhere, we believe it is still too early to state with certainty if this storm will wallop the region, or miss us entirely. We would like to point that in the past 14 years, notably March 3-5, 2001 and December 25-26, 2010 computer models and forecasters alike were calling for 12"+ of snow in the major East coast cities. 


The March 2001 storm turned out to be the biggest bust in modern forecasting history, as calls for 24-36" of snow from Baltimore to New York resulted in ONE INCH! The December 2010 storm swung out to sea, clobbering Ocean City MD and coastal New Jersey with 14 inches. The metro areas of I-95 saw just flurries.   

ABOUT THE LIQUID: It should also be noted that current liquid projections as developed by the spot-on meteorologists at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center are not as "robust" as one might think for the all the hype this hypothesized storm has received.

In the section below, we are outlining three possible scenarios for this event. The enclosed NOAA map shows the current NWS projection for 8 AM Sunday morning, based on information available at present. A scenario map will be posted tonight to accompany the text.

We still believe these scenarios have an equal chance of occurring, and we will assign confidence intervals once we are inside 72 hours from initial onset. (Yes, for astute readers, this is a repost of the scenarios from Tuesday. We reorganized the post just to focus now on the weekend event.)

• SCENARIO A (WET THEN WHITE) Low pressure moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday travels west of the Appalachians, producing a widespread wintry mix ahead of it. Some of this energy is transferred into a coastal storm which in Maryland would promote a "rain changing to snow" scenario from the major cities to the coastal communities. Lower liquid-to-snow ratios would yield lesser snow amounts by end of the storm, perhaps 6" or so due to the high water content of the storm.

• SCENARIO B (SNOWBOOM) Low pressure developing on the heels of a residual frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico deepens rapidly as it moves from the Southeast to a position just off the VA/MD coast by Sunday afternoon. Some computer models, including the often touted European, suggest this outcome would produce 12 or more inches of snow for the I-95 corridor, if more liquid is incorporated into the storm with higher snow ratios in a colder environment.

• SCENARIO C (CHRISTMAS 2010) In a setup similar to the Dec 25-26 near miss for the Mid-Atlantic, the upper level trough swings across the region faster than expected. While the storm develops in the southeast as expected, once it reaches the Virginia capes, the momentum of the trough pulls much of the energy out to sea. Heavy snow brushes the coastal communities from Virginia Beach, VA to Ocean City MD and Atlantic City, NJ but the remainder of the region experiences only flurries. 

We would prefer not to get your hopes up for any ONE of these scenarios regarding a storm that does not  yet exist, and is still 4-5 days away. By Wednesday afternoon we may have a more solid grasp on narrowing these scenarios down to two outcomes.

Best regards,
The Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Team
(Collaborators: M/A Coordinator & Meteorologist Justin Barker, Forecasters Connor M., Jason M., Mike N., J. Baron, Mintong N., Dr. Pete W., Advisors R. Foot and B. Lear)