"There is another..."
- Obi-Wan Kenobi, in Star Wars Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back
7:30 AM 2/22 - After a multi-month rout of winter weather across much of the U.S., we know some storm-worm readers are "SOOO DONE" with this season. Even though temperatures in the Eastern U.S. made a brief run to above normal levels recently, a rapid return to traditional late winter wishywashy-ness is on deck.
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| A view from Baltimore County, MD that Snowstradamus would love. Thanks to reader Joan Garrity for the pic! |
THEN, there are those special types who are most happy when TWO FEET of snow blanket the region, snow is STILL FALLING, and the temperature is, oh, 20 degrees. That would be a "Powderhound."
THERE IS ANOTHER. Our long range team is pointing to a new, and perhaps final round of significant winter weather in the East. The target time period is between Tue 2/25 and Monday 3/3, and is likely to feature elements of severe weather as well. If you like big coastal storms, this is your time, and yes Obi-Wan... there is another.
We have a more detailed report on this potential, including the traditional breakdown of teleconnection indicators which are starting to line up once again. For now it is safe to say that for the remainder of winter in the East, many along the big cities are going to see snow softly falling one more time while children are sleeping (just hopefully not in class!)"FOR ANYONE WHO MAY CATCH A TOUCH OF SPRING FEVER WITH THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THURSDAY...FORGETABOUTIT! ECMWF/GFS BOTH PAINT SUCH A BLEAK...DISMAL...COLD...AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY PICTURE NEXT WEEK THAT ITS LIKELY TO LEAVE MANY WINTER WEARY SOULS READY TO CURL UP INTO THE FETAL POSITION AND BEG FOR MERCY FROM OLD MAN WINTER!"
Forecaster Foot and the Winter Stormcast Team
43 comments:
Will we see the return of the 600 pound lady in a thong?
Will she be faithful to deliver the goods or will that dastardly southern breeze push her to the North so that she collapses into tears?
Or will he warm her icy heart so that she betrays her Andy?
Will Andy's love remain true?
Stay tuned for next week's episode of "As the Weather Turns"!
I will be tuned-in with my manwich sandwich...lol
Please Monday or weds night only!
Hopeful my friend RAIN will be out of town! From the look at the temperature probability below normal trending on the NOAA map on the foots home page, I am hopeful he will be out of town.
Hamm the link on the foots page brings you to a map that says "potential too low":
the NOAA Storm Prediction Center already has a Day 3-4 Outlook for parts of the East coast.
Not sure if the link is wrong or the person using it. :-?
Hmmm not Ham, well I am a bit hungry. Perhaps a Hamm sandwich is in order.
3/1?
notsofreestate:
QUITE a gift for screen writing!
I WILL stay tuned to see if Andy's inamorata proves faithful. She sure delivered the goods last week! I'd like to think that she only wants what's best for him .. five more weeks of winter.
Totally agree Julee! Sadly, I did not set the DVR for last weeks episode! Hopefully, nofreestate's "as the weather turns" happens again on Wednesday or this weekend!
Tommy T on WBAL just said they say usually following thunder during winter ....7 to 10 days later you can count on snow... Hmmmm!?!
I think there is no doubt that next week will be winter like with well below normal temperatures. Daytime highs will be close to or below freezing and nighttime lows in the teens generally.
There is a lot of "noise" showing up in the long range suggesting a stormy pattern. I would not put a specific day on any one threat at this point. This one is not as clear cut as it seems.
I never take model runs literally at this range. What I try to take away from it is the general or basic idea.
After next Tuesday it "could snow" at any given time. We are also in prime time here from a climatology standpoint. Wave lengths tend to shorten (storm track shifts south), blocking is showing up not allowing storms to cut to the lakes, and it looks plain stormy, with unusual cold air.
Any one of these could pop (dig south and amplify). March 1st period does show promise, but it could be the 26th, 2nd, or even 3rd.
After this warm wave I think we are in for something. Plenty of gulf moisture, short waves tracking to our south, and arctic cold.
I'm ready for a storm and as things get closer we might be able to latch onto one.
For now enjoy the 1st real break from the tundra, because this Spring sneak preview is going away.
I think Foot's Forecast summed up the general idea perfectly!
SHUT UP! Really? Did you HEAR that thunder?
When it started, the 7th graders in Science class looked at me questioningly because it didn't sound like any thunder they've ever heard! Just kept rumbling ... like a huge parade of heavy trucks passing by. I wasn't so sure it was thunder either. Wondered if it could be some arcane geological incident ... or an earthquake.
Seven days, eh? ... and counting ...
Day 10 is looking mighty fine. Today.
Verrry Interesting.
This will be a boon to the MD resesvoir system as well, might be a drought in SoCal, but quite the opposite around here...
JB is currently posting the possibility of a light to moderate snow event Tuesday/Wednesday next week. That works for me, and I would bet we stay in this pattern through at least mid-March.
Those spring break kids are going to be heading south this year unless they're into winter sports.
In interested in the end of the month. Waiting patiently...
NWS:
After that...high model confidence that we/ll see a series of
reinforcing fronts accompanying individual shortwaves rotating eastward
around the base of Hudson/James Bay polar vortex that will
continue the trend of progressively colder temperatures into late next
week /as the large scale pattern reverts back to its 2014 cold
season form/. Questions/uncertainty remain regarding a clipper
feature/coastal low development in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe...which
looks to be best chance for precipitation impacts /0.25 quantitative precipitation forecast or
less/ through Thursday.
A light to moderate event is possible mid week, and then there is potential for a large scale storm next weekend. Details this far out are too uncertain to begin to guess. Anything from 2 feet of snow to nothing is possible going into the first week of March. There is a lot of talk of a big storm everywhere. People who do not follow the weather or know the difference between a cold or warm front have been asking me about a Blizzard next weekend. LOL.
As powder hounds we have to sit back and let it ride a few more days. Everything is on the table at this point.
I am a one storm kind of guy and like specifics. Right now the Euro is showing a suppressed southern stream system for next weekend 3/1. That is of course where you want the storm. This far out it is a great signal, but there are so many details that need to be resolved that we are just speculating if that will be OUR storm. The models could drop that system and pick up on another 2 or 3 days after that etc.
So I'm letting it ride and will follow it closely starting Monday. Right now mid week will be interesting to follow after the cold arrives.
Thanks, Andy!
Annnnnd it's lost...
I read "Well the Chicago NWS Office summed it up nicely with these gently written words of comfort that should put you at ease..." and was expecting something a la Bambi. WHAM! Not! THAT was hysterical!
LOL!!!
This next event sure looks interesting.
WOW! Radical new spring-a-ling hoodies Mr. F!!!!!!
My winter hoodie arrived just before the BIG storm and I wore it for snow shovel duty. It was PERFECT! Kept me warm and got some admiring glances, although then they blamed YOU for the snow.
I guess I'm the only one excited about next week....This blog is cold..
Wednesday looking more like rain than snow per Canadian model. GFS is still posting for light snow cover, still a bit far out to get the models to come to some kind of agreement. Next weekend still a possibility for some kind or precipitation but I'll bet if we get rain Wednesday in Baltimore, it will be a cold weekend rain as well.
Andy must be busy catching up from the last two storms, I'm sure hel'll be posting soon.
BP, that's what I was thinking... the weather folks got a major work-out the last coupla weeks and are recharging their batteries. I've gotta say, being snowless over here in lower DE has a major advantage with this warmer weather: no mud.
Andy is relaxing outside in a lawn chair, with his fleece on, drinking a cold beer watching his snow pack melt.... Rock on Andy!
BBR... Have you watched any of the NFL combine? Abundant WRs! Sweet!
What are your thoughts and opinions about Wednesday's potential snowstorm? Accuweather.com has this storm being highly probable.
Needy is spot on!
Not paying much "CLOSE" attention to the storms as all the data is really inconlusive as of today for me to try and give you my take on the best general idea. My focus is generally on large scale systems in the long range, and higher impact winter weather events in the short to medium range.
Have been out and about enjoying the warmer weather and some outdoor yard time. I still as of today have an average of 12 inches of snow in my yard so I can't be too productive outside with all the thick heavy snow cover.
Generally listening to manly music, consuming adult beverages, and taking it easy when not running around outside of the compound.
Wednesday has the makings of a very fast moving shot of precip in the form of all snow. Shortwave is tracking from the west southwest pushing moisture into a cold air mass. I would expect that as we get closer higher resolution short term models will give us a clue as to what we are apt to see as they can pick up on small scale localized dynamics better than the globals.
I expect snow, but the nature and extent of impact is still unclear. This appears to be a 2-4 inch event in the making for Wednesday morning. As we get closer it could trend wetter as many systems have this year. I could see a 5-6 hour period of moderate to heavy snow dropping up to 4 inches. If it comes around and during the rush the impact will be high forcing delays. Start time would be key here. It looks like an Advisory event.
After that March 2nd to 4th is a window that can really deliver in a big way. This is WAYYYYYYY out there and it is hard to give specifics as the players on the field keep changing so my comfort level is not as high as it was with some of our other events.
I think there will be a large moisture maker next weekend, question is its evolution?
WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER SO KEEP THE SHOVELS SHARP AND READY! MY KEVLAR IS IN THE SHOP FOR RECONDITIONING, BUT IT IS ON STANDBY!
Just took a few picts of the current snowpack. The cold is coming back so I think up here we will keep around a foot of what fell from our combined storms. We had 10 inches,two days later a massive ice storm that locked the 10 inches in a glacier, then 24.5 inches a week later. The remaining foot has the consistency of thick thick slushy. Very tough stuff. It is soft but some of the heaviest snow I have ever pushed.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/sets/72157641427224283/show
Watch for snow tonight and snow showers, coating of snow and black ice in and near the cities is also possible in the morning as the cold front rolls through this evening. North of the city there could be a dusting to an inch of snow tonight. Get the ice melt ready!
Saw the meteocentre Canadian for 3/3-3/4. Would be a nice way to end with a bang.
Need, I will be extremely disappointed in The Wizard of Oz if he takes a WR in the first round.
O-line, O-line, O-line. Cannot have a successful football team without a good O line. True at all levels of the sport, even down here at my adult league team's low levels.
Andy, SAPI plates and chest rack are at the armorers for reconditioning, but will be ready by 3/2 or so. (Translation: I broke my last snow shovel and have to get it fixed. Snow thrower is still non-operational)
BBR .... Ozzie will take best on board .....need OL yes, but plenty of good WRs will be available in later rounds!! Love to see another bruising RB too! Can't wait until draft!
Must have been in the air as our snow shovel broke too...should we think about getting a new one for this winter?? :)
Like to see us pick up Terrance West from Towson, seeing as I am anticipating the release of Rice any day...
I just saw this video, a parody of "Let It Go" from the Disney movie Frozen. This guy is quite creative! I thought you all might like it seeing it has to do with snow and traffic. Really hoping for one more good snow but also hoping my husband can find salt. He plows several properties and there seems to be a big shortage of salt in the Baltimore area!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/21/bob-herzog-frozen-parody-let-it-go_n_4834259.html?ncid=fcbklnkushpmg00000037
Plus you need an army of offensive lineman at the rate they get injured
Good point Butch!
West ran a 4.54 today & Mike Mayock seemed impressed! Talks with Daryl Smith underway.. Good news there!
Snowing in WV currently... Still too warm here once precip arrives. Tues into Wed could be minor but I will still take it! Looking towards March roaring in like a lion!!
Good morning all, I'm looking forward to a relatively quiet week weather wise. On the other hand, I concur with Andy that the possibility for a weather event next weekend is out there. Temperatures will be cold enough, we just have to wait and see what kind of moisture system moves into place as we move through the week. I would think by mid-week folks will be taking a closer look at the roar of the March lion.
If it hasn't already been stated, Yoda said those words, not Obi-Wan.
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