Saturday, February 8, 2014

"Do You Want To Build A Snowman?"

"Do You Want To Build A Snowman?"
- from the FROZEN soundtrack (2013) by Disney (Youtube video of the scene)

Snowman photo by Central MD reader Amilynn Addison
8:08 AM 2/8 (Winter Stormcast Team) As the Mid-Atlantic carves its way out of a major ice storm this past week, Powderhounds and Spring-a-lings from coast to coast are wondering: "Are we done yet or is there more?"

Since you asked, we might as well break the news: The period February 13 to 22 and beyond looks to continue the wet, stormy blender of weather whiplash across a sizable portion of the nation. That would mean if you haven't had the chance to build a snow sculpture yet, say in a major Eastern U.S. city, you might have one more shot at it this winter. 

(And to "stay warm in the storms" with a Zip-up or Pullover team HOODY, place an order THIS WEEKEND at our SITE STORE) or pre-order at store@footsforecast.org)


READY (or afraid ;-) TO LOOK AHEAD? 
A PATTERN YOU SAY? Our Long Range Team has anticipated the pattern we saw in December 2013 might eventually repeat for February 2014: Cold to start, snowy and stormy toward the middle, calmer toward the end. 

If that outcome unfolds, it could be another set of data for evaluation of a hypothesized 60-day repeating weather pattern phenomenon known some in meteorological circles as the "Lezak Recurring Cycle" or LRCThough not an officially identified or measured "teleconnection" such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, some forecasters religiously track and follow this technique. 



ABOUT THE LRC First developed by Meteorologist Gary Lezak, Chief Meteorologist of KSBH 41 in Kansas City. Mr. Lezak began investigating his ideas while a TV forecaster in Milwaukee, WI in the 1990s. He proposes that historical storm data suggests there can be at times, somewhat of a reoccuring pattern depending on influence by "forcing" of other factors, such as the well-known teleconnections and global factors our team routinely monitors and incorporates into an assessment of Long Range possibilities. Mr. Lezak has presented a paper on his idea at a National Weather Association conference, the abstract text of which can be viewed at this archive link.

STAY WARM IN THE STORMS! With more stormy times ahead, this weekend is a perfect opportunity to order one of our LIMITED EDITION zip-up and pullover hoodies! Details at "store" in the menu bar.

Custom designed, locally printed and shipped from near our headquarters in Baltimore, MD - these 50/50 Heavy Blend GILDAN brand hoodies are thick enough to keep you warm outdoors, but stylish enough to sport at work or school. Besides, you know it will turn heads and make people say, "WHERE did you get THAT! I want one!!"  

You can tell them, "Foots is raising money to launch an app this year, so of course I HAD to have one!"

ORDER TODAY at our main site store and it'll be at your doorstep by Wednesday of next week, no kidding. (Some forecasters also work at UPS!) Keep your eyes peeled for the relaunch of our Authentic Weather Store with additional apparel options, and plans for SPRING ZIP-UPS! 



37 comments:

Mr. Foot said...

Greetings everyone. We appreciate your quick feedback on the DISQUS commenting system, but have disabled it for the time being until we can resolve the posting issues many experienced. Thanks again!

Anonymous said...

OK - thanks! I won't post a comment then...

BioPat said...

Thanks Rich. It appears that it will work well once the posting glitch is resolved.

Still looking ahead to that storm next week. Heard a discussion today about the "Pineapple Express" storm system and my ears immediately perked up so we'll have to wait and watch how this system develops over the next several days.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Rich for responding in a quick fashion. Much appreciated! --R Evans

BioPat said...

Once again GFS showing Thursday's storm further east than Euro and Canadian models. AS JB has noted several times this winter the GFS has not been reliable this far out. This storm bears watching on our statistically stormiest weekend of the winter.

Stuart said...

Where is the forecast for today? I see hoodie advertisements, and information on how to forecast, but no actual forecast. What's up? Please don't get sidetracked by all the commercial stuff.

NeedaSnowday said...

Dang.... wrong side of the bed today Stuart?

BP... now you know it is the annual Orlando Field Trip-- snow must be forecasted! :)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST SUN FEB 09 2014

VALID 12Z WED FEB 12 2014 - 12Z SUN FEB 16 2014

THE INLAND TRANSLATION OF PACIFIC AND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES LEADS
INTO EMERGING CENTRAL TO ERN US WINTER LOW THREATS. THE DETAILS
OF SRN STREAM SYSTEMS ALOFT AND ANY EVENTUAL NRN STREAM
INTERACTION HAS RECENTLY LEAD TO QUITE AN UNCERTAIN ARRAY OF LOW
TRACK OPTIONS RANGING FROM SUPPRESSED STREAKS OF WINTER PCPN AND
SRN RAINS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WELL DEVELOPED SERN TO EAST
COAST STORMS. LATEST GUIDANCE AND/OR TRENDS INDICATE THE
INGREDIENTS FOR POTENTIALLY WELL ORGANIZED WINTER PRECIPITATION
THREATS REMAINS WED-FRI INLAND TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NEWD
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF
FRONTAL/LOW FOCUSED PCPN SHIELDS. RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
HAVE BEEN MOST SUPPORTIVE WITH LIFTING A COASTAL LOW UP OFF THE
ERN SEABOARD COMPARED TO CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A SMALLER
BUT SLOWLY INCREASING NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN SEEMS REASONABLY FAVORABLE IF YOU CAN GET PAST
IMPULSE WAVELENGTH SPACING AND STREAM INTERACTION UNCERTAINTIES.

OVERALL AMID UNCERTAINTY...WPC SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB
PROGS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN MOST
CLOSELY DERIVED FROM AN ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WPC/NDFD
CONTINUITY BLEND. WPC GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A QUITE WET NWRN US
NEXT WEEK...AN ORGANIZED SRN TO EAST COAST LOW THREAT WED TO
FRI...AND A NRN US TIER CLIPPER LOW/MODEST SNOW SWATH THU/FRI WITH
A SUBSEQUENT COLD AIRMASS SURGE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN US
IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM PASSAGE.

SCHICHTEL

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

HPC likes the Euro ENS which show a favorable coastal low track for Baltimore and northwest of I-95.

This storm could deliver all or mostly snow. QPF is generally .7-.9, which could be a 7-9 inch type event if that were to be all snow. Right now I would look at this as a 4-8 inch threat, with a lot to be resolved. It could be a lot more than that, or a more mixed type event, but we do have a moderate/significant coastal storm threat for Thursday.

BioPat said...

Thanks Andy for the clarification. It doesn't look too bad all things considered. Still too many uncertainties so hopefully by Tuesday we'll be able to get a clearer picture of what lies ahead. Would like to get away this weekend, so trying to get my planning together as it takes multiple days to have all in order to scoot away for a long weekend. For now the ability to be spontaneous is out of my picture being primary caretaker for my 97 year old Mom.

kristia35 said...

Weds into Thursday?

Tina said...

Shoot Stuart, you should have been here for the two-week + comment run! Over a certain age (moi included) and you'd still be gettin' over "scroll finger."

As a super nice lady once told the then 16-year-old driver (again, moi) in parking-lot-like Bethany Beach traffic "patience is a virtue."

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

" HPC likes the Euro ENS which show a favorable coastal low track for Baltimore and northwest of I-95."

Same old song this winter - no love for us Lowlander's. Hope the storm track turn out further south if a storm is on deck for MD.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Morpheus,

For what it is worth the latest Euro ENS are painting a 10-14 inch snowfall for DC proper through all of central MD. A truly classic I-95 area snowstorm. Are they right> That is the question, but HPC is pretty bullish for a large region wide snow which includes the city of Washington DC and Baltimore, not just us mountain men in the untamed bush.

NeedaSnowday said...

Tiny snowflakes - street getting white!

Julee said...

Yes NEEDY!

I kept looking out of the window every few minutes, no snow, then suddenly I looked out, saw some snow falling and everything was covered.
Perfect!

Amy said...

I agree, such a pretty scene for curling up on the couch in a quiet Sunday. I know it won't amount to much, but I don't care.

Butch Dynomite said...

Just put another log on the fire

BioPat said...

Just drove up from Crownsville in the snow. Seems to be more snow in Crownsville than in Catonsville. In fact once I got on the Beltway the snow seemed to stop. Around 6 it began to snow again in Catonsville; it's a pretty snow and I am glad I am now home with my feet up and snuggled under a blanket.
At this point, I would love to see a Wednesday to Friday snowfall!

Tina said...

Very light snow in downstate DE. Applies to pretty much no one here, but it's a cheap thrill here!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

If the Euro ENS mean track verifies we could have our first widespread 8-12 event in the cities in years. The love of my life, the bearded lady storm that comes around Valentine's day has finally jumped out of my dreams and into the model runs. The pattern is simply better than this past weekend, so anyone that has been reading this board knows. This time period has jumped out over the last couple weeks as one that really had a chance.

kristia35 said...

I am getting excited :)

Amy said...

Tell NWS to chuck the gfs. Is splitting the low leaving us high and dry. Wbal is the only station I know of that mentioned the euro model and what it might have in store for us.

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

That's great to hear Andy! I not going to get my hopes up this time utill it still looks good 24 hrs ahead...now about this love of your life the bearded lady...I hope your wife does not read this comment section! If so you might be in for another ice storm!

Tina said...

I just hope the bearded lady (bless her heart) has put on her big girl pants and ditched the thong...

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

I agree Tina and with a high of 38 in the forecast for my area on thursday, she better slip on the sweat pants.

ravensbbr said...

Joe Bastardi just put up a NAM model graphic...that if I'm reading it right...puts central MD at a foot plus by Thursday night?!?

Feel free to correct me if I read that wrong. Check it out on Twitter @bigjoebastardi

BioPat said...

Lots of things still need to come together to confirm a major snow event for Thursday but there's no question we are due something significant. It's funny yesterday's clipper barely caused a flinch among folks having become used to the winter weather this year. And so we wait and we watch.
Andy keep us posted about that new love of your life that hopefully won't be stealing your power this time!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Not saying it is right, but it "COULD" be. Euro last night is showing 20-30 inch BLIZZARD for BALTIMORE and DC and ALL cent MD PA etc. Pay attention to the forecasts as they evolve, this COULD be a VERY SERIOUS storm as shown by the EURO.

Unknown said...

Is there any maps of the EURO I can see, Andy?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS BALT WASH,

A shortwave associated with the northern stream of the jet will dive
into the central Continental U.S. Wednesday while another shortwave in the
southern stream of the jet tracks along the Gulf Coast states.
Latest guidance has converged on a solution that phases these
systems together...causing coastal low pressure to develop.
However...the timing...track and intensity of the low remain
uncertain at this time.


The latest trend in the 00z guidance has been for this system to
phase earlier...causing low pressure to intensify quicker and track
closer to the coast. This scenario would bring significant amounts
of precipitation to the area...causing the potential for a major winter storm.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Jeremy,

I look at liquid text printout data not "snowmaps". "Snowmaps" are generally flawed esp. at this range. This is a very wet system and has the "POTENTIAL" to "CRIPPLE" our area. Once we are within 72 hours we will know if the alarm should be sounded. We are getting close, but I want to see all the runs today.

BioPat said...

Jeremy, check Joe Bastardi or Justin Berks FB page and they both have it posted with explanations. The 3 models are showing slight differences but those differences are significant in the impact to Balto/Wash area.
Still too far out for real numbers, BUT this bears close watching as the real potential for a very strong storm is definitely out there.

Anonymous said...

This comment section, during a potential snow storm, is the most exciting thing on the entire web.

I can't get enough. Thank you Andy and all the other contributors.

Just a trip down memory lane: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpxiCxO5k0g from Jim Kosek on the storm a few years back.

Storm said...

Hey guys can you publish the possible scenarios like you did with the last storm???

In Hampstead we got about another 2 inches of snow last night in addition to what was already on the ground....my well will LOVE that when it finally melts...it will melt at some point RIGHT...LOL!!!

Triggerfoot said...

I agree with Anon. Thanks guys!

BioPat said...

JB calling this storm the "Beast in the East" still trying to identify the rain snow line. So are we ready for the best snow storm since 2010? Still a bit early to look at snowfall maps but the models are definitely starting to come together. I wonder if this is Andy's new jumbo, thonged sweetheart??