Monday, February 24, 2014

"I keep workin' my way back to you, babe..."



"I keep workin' my way back to you, babe..."
- Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons, 1969 & The Spinners, 1979

4:00 AM 2/24 - Here's a question we cringe to ask first thing on Monday... (cringing...) 

WHO'S READY FOR MORE COLD?? Answer: NO ONE! 

One look at this upper level chart for Friday 2/28 may not give you a burning love inside for long range projections, but it is a strong indication that a version of the deep, intense cold seen in January is working it's way back to the Eastern United States. 


For a quick hit of info on this, here's what our Long Range Coordinator Nic Roberson from High Point, NC  had to say about this pattern development in a report from February 20:




"Our current weather pattern reminds me of mid December 2013. My area (central NC) was very warm during this time frame with temps in the 70s. The last few days have also been very mild with temps yet again in the low to upper 70s across a lot of the Southeast. 
If we recall that last weeks winter storm was also in the pattern that produced winter storms in early/mid December across portions of the eastern US. If we continue along with this setup, I would expect a good bit of March will be quite chilly from the Upper Mid-west and Great Lakes into the eastern US (above the deep south).
Only time will tell, but models thus far support more winter cold in the future."
SNOW & COLD CONCERNS - Today, the cold has invaded the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes already, with highs in the teens for some areas. In the Mid-Atlantic, by Wednesday, highs will barely break 25-30 F with lows in the teens until Friday for most of the region. As for snow potential, no worries, we're still on it! Our Forecasters are glued to model runs today, deciphering the clues from latest data (while keeping an eye out the window for what's really happening 

For the Tuesday-Wednesday period, models are split right now, showing the possible transition of the next storm system to a more onshore track. This would bring more of a rain/snow mix for the I-95 corridor, and mainly snow farther inland. We'll have more on this after the late AM model runs.

(Forecasters Julian B., Nic R. and Advisor Foot)




46 comments:

ravensbbr said...

FOR SALE:

PREMADE SNOWMEN! YARD FULL OF THEM AND THEY ALL MUST GO! VOLUME PRICING AVAILABLE. NO OFFER REFUSED. YOU HAUL.

Anonymous said...

We are over stocked on them also and offering an 85% discount plus another 15% off.

Tina said...

I think some folks are developing severe cases of we-want-snow-itis. It's similar to cabin-fever, but more difficult to effectively treat. Weather model indications of possible significant winter weather help alleviate symptoms. However, too frequent model let-downs can lead to further mental fuzziness and babbling.

:D

BioPat said...

I think we're there. However, current models showing primarily non-events, near misses and rain.

Storm said...

well if it means anything the Canadian Geese have returned to my job in Woodlawn at SSA.

ravensbbr said...

Weed, please tell those geese to return to the fields in Carroll County as it is my job to end their miserable lives and eat them. However, since the season does not come back until this fall, tell them they can wait a few months, it's cool.

:-)

CrackHead McGee said...

mmm i love drugs

Pothead McAcidVeins said...

me too man but acid be where it at dawg

I LOVE DRUGS SOO MUCH said...

I AM SOOO DRUG ADDICTED YOU WOULD NOT BELIVE.

Unknown said...

i hope these guys are joking

Amy said...

Or they have clearly entered the wrong conversation. Snow really coming down in Columbia for the last hour. It's sticking with most of the grass covered

Tina said...

There is always one (or two or three) in every crowd.

Snowing in downstate DE!! I was talking to my husband, who was standing in front of a window. I kept looking around him and finally realized I was seeing snow!!

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Started as giant fakes with hairy crystals and has changed over to fine flakes. Grass is covered, beautiful outside...

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Finally a little love for us Low Landers! Now we need the trend to continue into next week!!!

Event: Winter Weather Advisory
Alert: ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH 2PM.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

* WINDS...WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BE SLICK.

Instructions: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Target Area:
Anne Arundel
Calvert
Charles
Howard
Montgomery
Prince Georges

Unknown said...

Tina, I though all of DE was downstate! ;-)

Tina said...

::snort::

LOL, all of what's *important* in DE is downstate!!

:)))

BioPat said...

Looks like Sunday - Tuesday could be interesting, waiting to hear Andy's take on the models. Tomorrow could make for a dicey morning drive and a late opening to boot.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Winter Weather Advisory for 1-3 inches looks ok, more like 2-4 is the best call.

Sunday night into Tuesday 1-2 (feet) possibility. This one is not that easy to pin down at a longer lead, but it will be moisture laden. Surface track will determine if there will be any mixing which could cut down accumulations near the city.

I have my kevlar on stand by but it is WAYYYYY TOOOO EARLLLLLYY to be all in for massive storm in the cities YET!

I am pretty excited about the set-up, but it is not set in stone. I would start sharpening the shovel, but don't cancel any plans just yet.

This one is tricky, and these type of storms in March from this far out can be very hard to pin down at our latitudes this far out in time with any reasonable confidence. With the possibility of mixing I won't raise the KAHUNA flag for Baltimore, Annapolis, or greater Washington just yet.

I think it is safe to say that a significant winter storm is highly probable, but the exact p-type and impact from this many days out for certain areas is unclear. It could be heavy rain/sleet then heavy snow 2-4 inches, or all heavy snow 12-24 inches. Much is on the table and that is not bad for March!

Anonymous said...

Can't wait to see what happens. The suspense!!!

Baltimoreravens champs 2015 said...

Thanks Andy. The only thing I'm worried about it warm temp. Right now it looks like a all rain event including the sun's higher angle.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Sun angle is not an issue with this type of storm, and is not too bad in Central MD before March 10th. It is only an issue in March with light snow events during daylight hours when temps are marginal. Heavy snow rates can even overcome sun angle in early April! About 2 inches of snow fell in Baltimore today, but the rates were light and temps at or above freezing so sun angle played a role with stickage on concrete.

Our late weekend event will have rates so stickage will not be an issue. What we have to watch is how the models are handling the strength and placement of the PV (polar vortex)

That will determine the ultimate track of the storm. If it tracks more below our latitude we mix less, if at or near we mix more. This will not be a snow to rain event. If it is not all snow it will likely be a rain to snow event as the storm will get colder during its progression.

Really silly for anyone to give a specific forecast at this point because it would not be a forecast and only a guess. My guess is that it will trend colder and be mainly a snow maker for central MD.
I think the models are under doing the extent of the PV, and I think models will trend to a colder solution. Now that is a guess not a forecast, so I am sitting on the sideline with everyone else and watching. If my hunch is right then there will be more school days to make up next week!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
805 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2014

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-270115-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
805 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE FORMING AND MAY CREATE HIGHLY LOCALIZED
FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG THE SMALLER CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE FORMING AND MAY CREATE HIGHLY LOCALIZED
FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG THE SMALLER CREEKS.

GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND
CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
COLDEST VALUES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

A SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY LONG-DURATION WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS
SNOW...THEN POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

The logic in the above statement applies to the Baltimore area. Too many details to be specific but the potential for a MAJOR winter weather event is increasing for MD and PA. I still think it will trend colder, but the national weather service wants to cover all the possibilities this far out.

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Ok that it. I am using some frequent flier miles and buying a SW flight on Saturday to Tampa for my friend RAIN. No choice he has to go, if I need to bodily push him through the security line I will. Perhaps I should also get a ticket from Canada or North Dakota for my new best friend Pvortex...you know to cover all the bases.

Baltimoreravens champs 2015  said...

Ok. Thanks Andy.. I will be looking forward to your updates as this storm starts to head east...

Unknown said...

Thank you Andy

BioPat said...

Thanks Andy for being once again on top of Winter 2014. Based on the SHA trucks with blades on and salt loaded I passed on my trip home this evening tomorrow morning could be interesting. Then, if memory serves me correctly we are scheduled to begin Daylight Savings on Sunday, sure would enjoy a sleep in Monday morning as a coping mechanism. The older I get the harder that transition is and a little help from Mother Nature sure would be nice. It's way too far out for any real excitement but just the possibility is enough to keep us chatting for the next week!

BioPat said...

Oops, Daylight Savings Time begins March 9th.

Julee said...

AGHHHH Bio!!!!
MARCH 9TH???!!! Are they trying to KILL me? I can barely get up at 5 as it is ... now I will be getting up at 4 for FOUR months?
Balto. Co. already making up one day due to Andy's first girlfriend. This will be interesting. Short Easter break?
AND we have MSA's starting Monday.
Uh OHHHHHHHHH!

BioPat said...

Julee, I fell your pain! And with a very late Easter break we;ve got a loooong 7 weeks of classes with no breaks until we hit that point. However, the good news is we're on short time post Easter break. So far as DLS, I hate the adjustment! Both falling back and springing forward I find difficult but springing forward is the pits in the morning drive to school.

BioPat said...

Tough call for schools this morning! Snow started about an hour too late for decisions and roads in Howard and southwest Balto County are snow covered. My husband just left and I know he will have a tricky drive to southwest Howard Co. I am sure we will have many students late to school due to road conditions just hope for a safe journey for all.

Butch Dynomite said...

Yeah powder clung to streets in parkville. Less than an inch at this point.Drive was a little slick.Waiting to see how it affects attendance.

ravensbbr said...

Not much at all up coming down here on the Frozen Mason Dixon line...glad for my fellow powderhounds in the South to get in on the action! :)

Anonymous said...

Lady, lady, where are you?
We could use a foot or two.
In the thong you boldly wear,
Bring us snow: enough to share
From east to west and south to north
We want our snow.
Let it burst forth!

Anonymous said...

Weird to be teaching and see so much snow falling! Coming down real nice here in North Baltimore.

Amy said...

Our school in HoCo doesn't seem to bothered by the snow fall. No shoveling and no ice. On top of that we are under going a renovation and the construction crew triggered a fire alarm that left us in the gaming snow for 10-15 minutes. We were in the lab and most of my kids had left their coats in the classroom. What a day. The snow had been trampled as kids change classes and it's like an ice skating rink out there.

Amy said...

I meant to say no salt to deal with the snow covered walkways

Anonymous said...

And now blue sky ... crazy.

BioPat said...

Ahh, the wonders of Maryland school systems in the snow. Somehow there's always a screw up, I am sure today's call will make the noon news. Radar looks like we could have about another good hour of snow.

Anonymous said...

I agree Pat. Maybe a slight school delay would have been prudent this AM as it was a mess driving. 695 was a parking lot so I took to the side streets on my commute from Edgemere to Towson and there was alot of surpisingly icy spots.

BioPat said...

I only drove 1.5 miles and a bus had skidded blocked a down hill road forcing everyone to attempt another route where I managed to slide out on Frederick Ave, fortunately there was no traffic. And that was with AWD in low gear.

Steve said...

Looks like JB picking up on storm monday based on his last FB post

Weedman214 said...

I'm very excited about the next storm. Anyone wanna smoke some weed with me?

Tina said...

WHY did I move to the eastern shore from Gaithersburg? Oh, right. So I can have rain and/or ice.

Yeesh.

Unknown said...

Monday storm looks good we are never going to have baseball season but I can handle that for a blizzard.

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Tina I moved from Glyndon to Bowie to reduce my wife's commute to DC and extend mine to Towson and oh yeah and watch all the snow go by on radar while the rain drips down my windows.....man puts two fists in the air and yells RAIN.