Kickoff storm of a Fabulous February?

Kickoff storm of a Fabulous February? 

Our current precipitation projections as of 7:40 AM today (2/2) for Tuesday 2/3

1:40 PM 2/2/14 (Winter Stormcast Team) Whatever the Groundhog predicts today, we have at least one more day of winter! 

A moderate snow event is expected for Monday across part of the region. This in an interesting storm in many regards and presents a difficult forecast. We expect a sharp gradient in snow accumulations somewhere likely in between Baltimore and DC, and the precise location will greatly impact general accumulations. 

You can monitor the latest official NWS statements, watches and warnings for the region at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/. We will continue to evaluat the situation and expect to post an update later this afternoon prior to the Superbowl.

SYNOPSIS – Out ahead of the cold front, we will make a run for temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50º which feels like summer after January’s Arctic grip! The front will pass this afternoon with little fanfare, but the concern comes after. Temperatures will drop back down to the low to mid 30s tonight, and then another wave of moisture is expected to ride along the trailing front. 

TIMING - Temperatures will be close to freezing, and ground temperatures are above freezing in many areas without snow cover.

• Precipitation is expected to arrive in the form of light rain prior to sunrise for much of the I-95 corridor and SE as well as south of Baltimore. 
• Then the rain/snow line will slowly progress SSE over the course of the morning. Snow may have trouble sticking in some areas, especially south of Baltimore, although most of central MD is expected to see some snowfall. 
• By the early afternoon, precipitation should start to clear out. 

ACCUMULATIONS: Our general expectations are outlined in the map shown above. One thing to emphasize is that we do expect a very sharp cut off in snow accumulation. As in only a couple of miles could separate several inches from a coating. The exact location of this cut off cannot be pinned down at this time. 

BUST POTENTIAL: This storm by its nature has a high bust potential, both on the high and the low end. The main areas that should stay tuned in the case of changes are those located in the Baltimore metro and southward. Those in the 2-4” band through central MD, the 1-3” band and the Trace-1” band have the highest bust potential in both directions. 

• More Snow? – If the temperatures are colder than expected, that 3-6” band may have to be expanded southward since higher precipitation totals are expected around Baltimore and southward, just temperatures are marginal so snow may have trouble sticking and some of the precipitation may be rain. (25% chance)

• Less Snow? – The opposite, temperatures are warmer than expected, even those in the 3-6” band may be in danger of getting cut off of the snow accumulation. Temperatures are the key in this storm, and only a few degrees will make a huge difference. (15% chance)

IMPACTS: 

• Snowfall is expected to impact the AM commute, especially for the counties bordering the Mason-Dixon Line. 
• Snow will be heavy and wet, not light and powdery like the last several events. Snow-to-liquid ratios may be 10:1 or lower.
• A heavy snow band may set up, but exact position is uncertain at this time
• May be similar to December 10, 2013 event

The Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Team

(Forecasters Mike Natoli, Kate O'Brien, Connor Meehan, Jason Mitchell, Andrew Barney, Mintong Nan, Emily Day, J. Baron; Advisors R. Foot, B. Lear, K. Krichinsky, J. Isaacs)