Marching Back To Winter?
4:00 AM 2/27 - As first noted in our post from 2/19/2014, "There Is Another" we can see more clearly through trees of Snowstradamus's mystical forest, and detect early clues of what is building in the long range. What lurks out there looks quite wet, may bring a lot of ice, and would represent a most unwelcome march back to Winter. Grrreaat. Just when Spring sports is set to begin next Monday.
Early indications of a wintry and stormy pattern to resume this weekend include a resurgent series of Arctic Highs pressing down from western Canada, a more amplified bend in the southern jet stream, and Atlantic moisture input from the burgeoning Bermuda High. Combine these factors with widespread snow cover in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with copious moisture "overrunning" a cold surface over many states... and what do you have as one possible outcome?
ICE. This chart above is the projected liquid from today, Thursday 2/27 to next Thursday 3/6. Most of that would fall from late Saturday to Tuesday, and a glimpse at this early precip chart from the Global Forecast System for BWI airport may make you cringe if it actually plays out as shown 5 days from now. We remind that outside 5 days, these are indications, not forecasts. Our intent is to make you aware of general storm ideas, and as the event nears begin to unpack the data one aspect at a time.
(Forecaster Foot and the Long Range Team)
41 comments:
Models are beginning to come together for an event that will begin over the weekend and go through early next week. Appears to be plenty of cold air and moisture to provide the roar for this lion of March 2014. Looks like the all clear will sound in time for Ash Wednesday.
Latest models I have seen have the heavy snow again in northern maryland thru pa.
Does not appear on the snow projected depths as a statewide blizzard.
Mike, I hope so, last thing us Highlanders need is more ice after last time, not that anyone needs it...
...although your boy Garrett still thinks it'll be ice if I read it right...
BBR- My boy- LOL. They all are just relaying the model info. He posted a map on FB of a swath of 6-10 from the GFS that sneeks into northern md.
Again! just a 50 mile or so shift south we are in it big time or indeed it could be ice and rain.
It's hardly ever easy in md.
Anyway, How bout them O's!
Mike, you know he's your boy, don't deny it. :) Personally, I think his old man is still head and shoulders better, but he's got promise.
Shame to lose McLouth and Roberts, but I think we'll be OK.
Models I've seen have steadily shifted the R/S line south, but only by a fraction each day...hopefully it'll be enough? Time will tell. Looking forward to Andy's take.
MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD EMRGENCY OPERATIONS:
“Weather models continue to show a prolonged winter storm for the DC area from Sunday-Tuesday. Montgomery County, MD remains in the battleground between rain to the south and snow to the north on most of the reliable models. If this trend continues, winter weather watches are likely within the next 48 hours. This has the potential to be a high impact event with significant amounts of sleet and freezing rain possible for Montgomery County. Significant travel disruptions and power outages are likely under this type of storm scenario for the region. Residents should remain alert for this potential storm.”
This is from a public agency so I thought I would pass it along to anyone who is interested as it is a concise synopsis of what is going on with respect to next week . Our whole region is on the rain/ice/heavy snow line for Sunday night to Tuesday. There is no clear cut agreement in numerical guidance to pinpoint a precise forecast as a shift in the frontal boundary will dictate precipitation type and impact. It could be 6-12 inches of snow, heavy ice, or cold rain for Baltimore. If you have travel plans pay attention to the evolving forecast. There is no point as of today in breaking down snow maps, ice accumulations, or quantitative precipitation as the type of precip for our area is unknown.
********************
Quick hit for midday. Everything shifting south and MUCH colder. Trend is more defined to a colder much SNOWIER solution. Could be a MAJOR SNOWSTORM.
I will look at everything tonight but the runs are a powderhounds friend today!
Sweet!! Maybe the eastern shore will get into play with snow and not ice/rain.
God, I love weather!!
.....man puts two fists in the air and yells RAIN.
LOL, Morph. Hoping you guys get into the action this time. :)
Morpheus, that's pretty funny!
What bbr said... maybe you'll get some snow this go around!
I am not greedy a nice fluffy 8 inches will do, but I will take 28if they are in the cards!
I will take snow over ice, sleet, and rain anyday!!
Accuweather keeps hyping ice from Mason-Dixon south...great...
Did you see the euro go from thumbs down to HECS?! I hope that continues. Monday night into Tuesday would be lovely.
HECS?
I know, I wasn't sure what it meant either, but saw the "thumbs down to HECS" quote on some other weather site: Historical East Coast Storm.
WOW.
That would be AWESOME...IF it is SNOW and not ice!
Good call Andy, we are trending colder... the current, trusty euro has the low tracking south. This shift will bring in more snow to the metropolitan area. With a possible 12+ if this system holds it's integrity
I'm a lil worried about sunday's temp. and trying to get to the freezing mark before the event. Currently, they are show temp in the 50's in baltimore. Andy, can you chime in on this?
I don't know where you're getting these temperature forecasts, but Wunderground says the high will reach around 40 degrees in the city and will be in high 30's for places north...
The weather channel.
Waiting...waiting...waiting....
Still a lot of uncertainty in the positioning of the 540 line. GFS ensembles are all over the place. Just a little bit of change north or south shifts from all rain to rain/freezing rain/ice pellets to snow. Other models also showing a lot of variations. Pretty sure that north of the Mason-Dixon line will be a decent snow event... not so sure for the DC metro area. Stay tuned...
Just for the record (and because I MUST state the obvious), not all the Anonymice posting here are the same person. :-D
THIS Anonymous is interested in the weather events...and the personal, weather-related anecdotes/observations that are part of the friendly discussion and banter.
Thank you, Andy, and all others who make intelligent, weather-specific observations and who share their lives and stories with their Foot's friends.
Andy, are you an administrator on this blog? Are you able to delete the inappropriate comments?
Cathy,
Not an Admin. I will have to get with Rich to keep it clean in here. IP profiles are forever and push comes to shove posts can easily be tracked to the poster computer. Once you post IP is captured so no need for extrinsic intervention.
Been a busy day for me so I will keep is short. Pretty good agreement 72 hours out on globals.
General idea is an 8-12 inch snow for Baltimore City and metro, with areas of 12-16 north and west of Baltimore. Areas south are 6-10 with sleet.
This storm is tough! Tougher than usual to pin down. Rain threat is minimal. This is a winter storm, and if the snowy solutions continue it will be historic.
That is the general idea for this early Friday morning. Winter Storm Watches by Friday night possible! Almost certain by Saturday lunch.
Years ago Rich had a few of us serve as monitors especially when it was a live running commentary. Sadly, it looks like we might need a forum moderator....
Cathy you can close individual comments by tapping the name... Still doesn't delete it but you can then pass over it without the drivel.....
Happy Friday!
Good morning all! As Andy stated it looks as though the storm is trending further south which should place the rain/snow line closer to DC. I do think Andy is pretty much on target with his accumulations, yet others are waiting for further runs to watch that line of all snow vs ice and snow. The maps I have observed definitely place Balto Metro in an all snow area. Now to figure out when that test scheduled for Tuesday can be administered, not to mention my public school counter parts with the MSA. Maybe MD needs to move the test out of early March??
So far as the unwanted comments, until Rich places a monitor on the account with the ability to block these folks we can only hope that the Blogger(s) will get bored and disappear.
Cool model of the "Polar Vortex"
or, as we used to call it when I was a kid, "Winter". :-P
http://gizmodo.com/a-stunning-visualization-of-the-polar-vortex-1512254399
Thanks Needsasnowday, that helps a lot. I have a hard time tolerating rude people, and those kind of comments ruin what is going on here - an informative, knowledgeable, fun loving sharing of information among a group of friends - some of whom have never met! lol
Does anyone have a time and day this is supposed to start?
Baltimore Ravens- use weather.gov. It's from the National Weather Service and more reliable than weather channel. Start looks like Sunday night. Right now NWS is calling for rain Sunday afternoon. We will see if that bears out.
According to the foots team projections I have good odds of being in the mix to snow (80%) in the senerios presented. Only 20% chance of seeing the gloomy face of my Friend RAIN. I am hoping for continued southern trending.
Did anyone else see clips of local weather coverage of rain in L.A.?Pretty hysterical.Then again my gf from Michigan thinks we are pretty ridiculous in MD.
Watch is up for Garrett County:
...A SIGNIFICANT EARLY MARCH SNOWFALL IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA ...
.A PROLONGED SNOWY PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA.
THE SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE REGION AND MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
RAIN IN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OHIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.
SNOW IS PREDICTED TO FALL AT A HEAVIER RATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME ITS ALL OVER MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW AREA WIDE WITH SOME AREAS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
LOCATION WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. LISTEN FOR UPDATES ON
THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE.
* SNOW IS LIKELY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT MOST
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.
* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
* SNOW ENDING...MONDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW ACCUMULATION.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
Instructions: A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA.
Target Area:
Garrett
Darn it! Why couldn't that say Anne Arundel County? Still hoping...
Coming soon to an RSS feed near you...
Blog Administrator reporting in. Those unable to appropriately participate in our civil society enterprise are removed from the discussion.
Thanks everyone and carry on!
-Mr. Foot
Ok. Thanks Amy
Post a Comment