"Here comes the sun, here comes the rain..."
- Bridgit Mendler, Hurricane (VEVO video on Youtube)
7:00 PM 2/4 (Winter Stormcast Team) One look at the NWS watch/warning map, and you'll feel like "boarding up the windows and locking up (your) heart" like Bridgit Mendler says in her popular 2013 single.
Though it may not be a hurricane, the number of people affected will be similar as Winter Storm Warnings plaster the country nearly 2,000 miles from end to end.
NOTE: For preliminary details on the potential weekend event, please scroll to end of this post.
For the latest official statements on warnings in Maryland, visit the Baltimore/Washington NWS for the Western shore, and the Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ NWS for the Eastern shore and southeastern PA. For central PA, visit the State College PA NWS office.
TONIGHT - Clouds increase toward sundown, and wet snow/sleet is expected before the overnight hours across most of the region.
WEEKEND STORM?
We have been tracking developments for a potentially significant to high impact storm this weekend.
It is too early to say with certainty if this storm will wallop Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic or miss the region entirely. We would like to point out the last time we saw a situation similar to this type of storm, it ended up swinging out to sea and missed the major cities entirely!

ABOUT THE LIQUID: It should also be noted that current liquid projections as developed by the spot-on meteorologists at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center are not as "robust" as one might think for the all the hype this hypothesized storm has received.
In the section below, we are outlining three possible scenarios for this event. The enclosed NOAA map shows the current NWS projection for 8 AM Sunday morning, based on information available at present. A scenario map will be posted tonight to accompany the text.
At this point, we believe all three of these scenarios have an equal chance of occurring, and we will assign confidence intervals and probability to the list on Wednesday.
We would prefer not to get your hopes up for any ONE of these scenarios regarding a storm that does not yet exist, and is still 4-5 days away. By Wednesday afternoon we may have a more solid grasp on narrowing these scenarios down to two outcomes.
Best regards,
The Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Team
(Collaborators: M/A Coordinator & Meteorologist Justin Barker, Forecasters Connor M., Jason M., Mike N., J. Baron, Mintong N., Dr. Pete W., Advisors R. Foot and B. Lear)
The LAST time we said,
- Bridgit Mendler, Hurricane (VEVO video on Youtube)

Though it may not be a hurricane, the number of people affected will be similar as Winter Storm Warnings plaster the country nearly 2,000 miles from end to end.
NOTE: For preliminary details on the potential weekend event, please scroll to end of this post.
For the latest official statements on warnings in Maryland, visit the Baltimore/Washington NWS for the Western shore, and the Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ NWS for the Eastern shore and southeastern PA. For central PA, visit the State College PA NWS office.
TONIGHT - Clouds increase toward sundown, and wet snow/sleet is expected before the overnight hours across most of the region.
- Ice amounts of 0.25" or greater are expected across a large area as indicated in the Winter Storm Warnings as denoted in DARK PINK on NWS maps.
- Counties that border the PA/MD line should see freezing rain develop after midnight, continuing into Wednesday early to mid-morning. Areas in Pennsylvania under Winter Storm Warnings are likely to receive several inches of snow AND ice from freezing rain.
- Southern counties of MD in a Freezing Rain Advisory (LIGHT PURPLE) may also see some snow linger into the early AM, before ice develops toward daybreak.
- Earlier computer models WERE showing that could begin between 7-8 AM, but later runs now depict much of the Maryland west of the Chesapeake Bay and northern Virginia may remain near 30 F until 10 AM.
- If precip is delayed or freezing rain starts later, the eventual warming Wed AM might also be delayed. The best plan is to be well-prepared and allow lots of extra time for your commute.
THURSDAY - Cold conditions returns as High pressure builds in following this storm, refreezing and black ice are possible again tomorrow morning.

We have been tracking developments for a potentially significant to high impact storm this weekend.
It is too early to say with certainty if this storm will wallop Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic or miss the region entirely. We would like to point out the last time we saw a situation similar to this type of storm, it ended up swinging out to sea and missed the major cities entirely!

ABOUT THE LIQUID: It should also be noted that current liquid projections as developed by the spot-on meteorologists at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center are not as "robust" as one might think for the all the hype this hypothesized storm has received.
In the section below, we are outlining three possible scenarios for this event. The enclosed NOAA map shows the current NWS projection for 8 AM Sunday morning, based on information available at present. A scenario map will be posted tonight to accompany the text.
At this point, we believe all three of these scenarios have an equal chance of occurring, and we will assign confidence intervals and probability to the list on Wednesday.
- SCENARIO A (WET THEN WHITE) Low pressure moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday travels west of the Appalachians, producing a widespread wintry mix ahead of it. Some of this energy is transferred into a coastal storm which in Maryland would promote a "rain changing to snow" scenario from the major cities to the coastal communities. Lower liquid-to-snow ratios would yield lesser snow amounts by end of the storm, perhaps 6" or so due to the high water content of the storm.
- SCENARIO B (SNOWBOOM) Low pressure developing on the heels of a residual frontal boundary in the Gulf of Mexico deepens rapidly as it moves from the Southeast to a position just off the VA/MD coast by Sunday afternoon. Some computer models, including the often touted European, suggest this outcome would produce 12 or more inches of snow for the I-95 corridor, if more liquid is incorporated into the storm with higher snow ratios in a colder environment.
- SCENARIO C (CHRISTMAS 2010) In a setup similar to the Dec 25-26 near miss for the Mid-Atlantic, the upper level trough swings across the region faster than expected. While the storm develops in the southeast as expected, once it reaches the Virginia capes, the momentum of the trough pulls much of the energy out to sea. Heavy snow brushes the coastal communities from Virginia Beach, VA to Ocean City MD and Atlantic City, NJ but the remainder of the region experiences only flurries.
We would prefer not to get your hopes up for any ONE of these scenarios regarding a storm that does not yet exist, and is still 4-5 days away. By Wednesday afternoon we may have a more solid grasp on narrowing these scenarios down to two outcomes.
Best regards,
The Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Team
(Collaborators: M/A Coordinator & Meteorologist Justin Barker, Forecasters Connor M., Jason M., Mike N., J. Baron, Mintong N., Dr. Pete W., Advisors R. Foot and B. Lear)
The LAST time we said,
"I have a BAD feeling about this..."
here's what happened:
3:00 AM 2/4 (Winter Stormcast Team) It was four years ago on this day, our team had finalized a snowfall prediction made days earlier, that even we thought was beyond extreme. In fact, we had prepared a statement which we sat on for 24 hours in order to assure there weren't model errors. We had said the Baltimore-Washington area, and much of the Mid-Atlantic, could be facing an event that had the potential to eclipse the many great snowstorms of the past. And boy, did it ever...
Shown left is the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) map for the February 4-7, 2010 storm. There's a rule about communication on our team between each other, it's called "being straight with you."
So we want to be straight with YOU about this weekend's possibilities, and will have a full report later this morning.
Long range pattern projections, and more recent computer models, HAVE been showing a possibly high impact event from Saturday into Monday for the eastern U.S. It COULD be a very significant event, given considerably large precipitation forecasts of 1.50" + in play.
But it COULD ALSO go out to sea, and mostly affect the coastline similar to the Dec 26, 2010 storm that pummeled Ocean City, MD with 14" overnight.
Thus, we have a BAD feeling, but are not ready to unleash a BIG forecast until the team reaches full consensus on our ideas about how this situation will unfold. Check back later today for our preliminary statement and scenario map.
23 comments:
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
405 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
PAZ019-027-028-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-041915-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.140205T0000Z-140206T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0004.140205T0300Z-140205T2100Z/
SOUTHERN CENTRE-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATE COLLEGE...LEWISTOWN...
MIFFLINTOWN...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...
SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...
BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...
CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER
405 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...ALONG WITH ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN. THE MOST
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE CLOSE TO THE MARYLAND BORDER AND THE MOST
SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM STATE COLLEGE TO WILLIAMSPORT AND BLOOMSBURG.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGE TO SLEET IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND
THEN TO FREEZING RAIN. SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST NORTH OF
ROUTE 22. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AND COULD BE
SLOWED TO A NEAR STOP AS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BECOME THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVY FALL RATES OF
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP THE
ROADS PASSABLE. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS THE WEIGHT OF
THE SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN STRESS THE TREES AND POWER
LINES.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
USE EXTREME CAUTION IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO.
REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO CTP.STORMREPORTS@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
@NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG #CTPWX.
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
410 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
MDZ003>007-501-502-VAZ028-031-WVZ050>053-503-504-041715-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0003.140205T0000Z-140205T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0005.140205T0000Z-140205T1800Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
410 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. ONE-QUARTER TO
ONE-THIRD INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN.
* TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY PERSIST
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THIS EVENING SLOWLY RISING
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY
FROM ICE....SNOW AND SLEET. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS DURING THIS
TIME INCLUDING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
410 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
MDZ011-041715-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0003.140205T0000Z-140205T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.ZR.Y.0003.140205T0000Z-140205T1100Z/
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BALTIMORE
410 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING
RAIN.
* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE TO RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* TEMPERATURES...NEAR 30 THIS EVENING RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY
FROM ICE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DANGEROUS DURING THIS TIME.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING
This is the NWS info for today and tonights storm which could cripple some of the the region with ice.
WEEKEND KAHUNA THREAT
Quick look, operational models lost the storm for the weekend. Will they bring it back? Time will tell.
Big storm idea the EURO model and others were displaying looks like it will not happen.
NWS not impressed with a large storm this weekend, but winter weather is still on the table.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
behind the cold front passage...below normal temperatures will be in
place as the weekend begins. Low pressure will develop along a
frontal boundary Saturday but model differences continue in regards
to this. The GFS is much farther south with front and keeps US cold
and dry while the European model (ecmwf) has a stronger wave and warmer temperature
profile. These differences in placement make precipitation type
forecasting a challenge Saturday and Sunday. The GFS shows a cold
wedge remaining in place until the dry slot pushes through Sunday
night. Likely probability of precipitation will remain in the forecast for this system. We
will not try to resolve ptype details at this time due to these
inconsistencies...but the potential for snow/fzra/rain/snow
changeover exists especially with high pressure to the north
initially. High pressure may rebuilds early next week with cold and dry conditions.
If I am reading this right, there's no 600lb floosie (negative NAO) in place to set up a Haloti Ngata-esque crushing block to seal up the A gaps and keep the weekend storm from escaping downfield...?
Brought to you by Ravensbbr Forecast: Merging Mostly Accurate Football Terminology with Mostly Inaccurate And Marginally Speculative Weather Terminology Since Around 2010 Or So
I read a tidbit that the polar vortex's position this week(end) *might* serve to overcome the lack of a negative NAO. I'm learning these things as I go along and, on the surface, that tidbit makes sense. I think. But, what I also realize is, Andy and most mets have forgotten more than I'll ever beGIN to know about what makes weather, weather.
This is one time I'm ok with not getting walloped in central MD. I could possibly be stuck at work(hospital) for days. I have a little guy at home with a newly diagnosed low heart rate and I would go nuts not being able to check on him overnight. This is probably the only reason I am asking Mother Nature not I bring it on or wait until Monday night please!
Looks like the weekend, at least at this point, could be ok. The concern for tomorrow is troubling. Once again the ice/rain line will be critical. I'm calling a 2 hour late for Balto Metro school systems. Let's see where we go with this one.
That would be fine with me! Snow/ice day tomorrow wouldn't be too shabby either.
Yeah, Need, it's shot. Carburetor is fried. That's what I get for using that #(&@*&^! ethanol poison gas...
So I already see that Baltimore County has cancelled evening high school in anticipation of this evening's ice event. I am hoping the lead instructor on this evening's course at Goucher will decide to be online instead of face to face. I'm not looking forward to an icy drive home at 9pm.
BioPat- stay safe. Sounds like should see a late start tomorrow. What time do we switch to rain, and is it warm enough to melt the ice? Wjz seems to be under the opinion that melting will begin around 7am.
BBR said "If I am reading this right, there's no 600lb floosie (negative NAO) in place to set up a Haloti Ngata-esque crushing block to seal up the A gaps and keep the weekend storm from escaping downfield...?
Brought to you by Ravensbbr Forecast: Merging Mostly Accurate Football Terminology with Mostly Inaccurate And Marginally Speculative Weather Terminology Since Around 2010 Or So"
THIS HAD ME SCREAMING!!!!! Oh lawdy!
Shooting the A gaps... Someone needs to pick up the blitz and protect our $120 million dollar Kahuna!
Thanks Amy! We will be leaving as the weather begins to change here in Towson.
I have read several thoughts on when the thaw begins. Initially the most felt between 7 - 8 am however, it is cooler than expected at present so some are now indicating it could be closer to 10 before the temps move above freezing. However, once again it's location, location.
I'm still sticking with a 2 hour late opening tomorrow and wish you all safe journeys.
I agree, Need! Thought you might "get" that one. :-)
Afeared that only some of us speak football on here. Oh well, weather for all.
;-P
HoCo is out today and aaco is two hours late. Best combo ever for this wording mom. All alarms are off.
Does anyone know about roads in Towson?
I just heard 70 is closed at 29 so that's moving west. I will bet north of the city is equally bad.
Just watch York Road in Timonium and just a few cars are moving. The reported said the power lines are hanging very low and that is a concern. If you have to move be very careful! Also check to see if your destination has power.
I'm not seeing much melting of ice and the rain keeps coming down, thus freezing and adding to the coverage. The temperature is just a hair above 32.
Just arrived in Towson area, trees across a few roads but the road conditions are good at this point. Back to the grindstone.
Finally seeing some melting here in Catonsville! Now to get some work done and plan for the next storm!
Post a Comment