Friday, February 28, 2014

Last worthless evening...

"(Is) this is the last worthless evening 
that you'll have to spend...?"
- Don Henley, 1989 single Last Worthless Evening


8:48 PM 2/28 (Winter Stormcast Team) In light of the never-ending story that this current winter storm pattern, we're trying fulfill as many customer back-orders for an early Spring as we can! However, Old Man Winter and his minions apparently placed lots of "pre-orders" for a late season rout! 


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THE SITUATION While it was a brutally cold Friday across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, coastal California is being pounded by over 6" of heavy rain with heavy snow across the intermountain west. This "wet west - cold east" setup will feature prominently in the Long Range forecast going forward to the first week of March. For those YEARNING to see the end of winter, at least you can say it was the last worthless evening (of February)! 




SLIPPERY SATURDAY As indicated by the swath of Winter Storm Watches and Warnings stretching from the Northern Cascades of Washington state to the Allegheny Plateau of western Pennsylvania, the potential exists for significant accumulations of snow, freezing rain and sleet in these areas. For unsuspecting areas of the Mid-Atlantic and 95 corridor, what looks like a calm day early will give way to clouds, then light freezing drizzle by Noon, making for slippery travel in the area. Highs barely cracking 30 F.



SUNDAY SNOW SETUP - While snow and sleet will be pummeling the central plains and Kentucky/Ohio Valleys on Sunday, in the Washington-Baltimore-Philadelphia region temperatures will strangely not be as cold as Friday. Highs ahead of the approaching warm front may edging near 40 F at the PA line and even aiming for 50 or higher in Washington! The relative calm is likely to lull some into the feeling winter's grasp is finally lessening. But no! Old Man Winter's next trap is just behind the tree. 

  • All that heavy precip in Cali? It's going to ride over the Rockies, roll into the central and southern Plains and tap Gulf AND Atlantic moisture along the way. 
  • By Sunday night, snow should be overspreading the southern Blue Ridge and then to the I-95 corridor.
  • By daybreak Monday a wide variety of winter precipitation is possible across much of the heavily populated areas east of I-81 to the coastline. To break down the possibilities, we have outlined 3 scenarios below. On Saturday we will narrow these down to 2 for the Mid-Atlantic. Let us know for which one you are rooting!

 OUR CURRENT STORM "OPTIONS" 
  • SCENARIO A (The Tennessee Trenchcoat) - We project a 20% probability of the eventual Southern Plains system to take a more northerly route, bringing more rain than snow to the major cities and inland areas along the I-40 to I-81 corridor. The I-95 corridor would start as snow overnight Sunday and then change to rain by morning. 
  • SCENARIO B (The Messy Mid-Atlantic) - Due to a more southward pressing Arctic High pressure building in from the Northwest territories (of Canada!), we project a 50% probability that cold air will remain in place across much of the storm track. A northeast fetch of wind ahead of low pressure waves along a front will convert moisture to snow overnight Sunday, but also lead to an expansive area of freezing rain for a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. 
  • SCENARIO C (The Coastal Curmudgeon) - Were the southern low pressure waves to travel ever further south and east toward the coast, the area of heavy snow could easily spread over the major cities and coastal communities of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. With liquid equivalents of 1.00"+ and ratios of 15:1 inland and 10:1 near the coast, snowfall could rival what was observed in the Feb 13-14 event. We have assigned a 30% chance of this scenario given the most current information available.
BREAK THE WINTER BLAHS! Our new line of Spring-a-ling hoodies and zipups will help you capture the spirit of the new season to come. In Central Maryland, you can arrange for delivery by forecasters for just $5 on First Friday. Check out the new options at the Authentic Weather Store: http://store.footsforecast.org


Forecaster Evan relishing an epic blue sky in the Spring-a-ling Rainbow Tie-Dye Hoody!




42 comments:

Anonymous said...

What is the reason surrounding the rain/snow line ALWAYS falling on the MD/PA line??? How is it that EVERY storm track shows snow north of the line and (freezing) rain south of the line?

GrandDottie said...

To Anonymous - Well, the storms are smart and know where the Mason/Dixon Line is - it's like the deer know where to cross at the deer crossings. :) :)

Anonymous said...

Anonymous,

Clearly it is not the dividing line with every storm. A lot of the time, the dividing line is along rt 95, which is a north/south running road. I think you are just mistaken.

Anonymous said...

I'm no met, but 2 things:

1) Elevation rises as you head northwest of Baltimore/DC.

2) Bay moisture often encourages precipitation but rises temps.

Mike Cheuvront said...

1) CONCRETE JUNGLES OF DC AND BALTO DOES NOT HELP TEMPS.

2) YOU ANSWERED YOUR OWN QUESTION
WITH YOUR OTHER 2 ANSWERS.

3) IT'S MANY OTHER FACTORS.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I am not concerned about temps at this point. I like the 8-12 idea for Baltimore Metro with 12-16 to the north.

All guidance has trended considerably coder. Euro and GFS are in close agreement.

Now the numbers above are not a forecast but that is how things have trended and that is where we are with a MUCH COLDER AND SNOWIER solution.

I expect WINTER STORM WATCHES this evening.

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Andy - watch already up for Garret County (post on the previous comment section.

Does you non-concern for temps extend to the lowlands?

Tina said...

::Morpheus, one desperate man::

:))

Anonymous said...

Different Anonymous from above.... I think team members meant to say "Slippery Sunday" rather than "Slippery Saturday" in their sub-title? The US Hazards Projection map shows 3/2 as the starting date and that is Sunday, not Saturday. The Summary of Forecasts and Hazards also says "Valid Sunday, March 02, 2014...."

ravensbbr said...

Good point, different Anon. :)

Morpheus, Bowie, MD said...

Tina I think all the highlanders have had their fill this winter. I am one snow poor lowlander that just wants one decent snowstorm (IN MY AREA - without RAIN)this winter. If that make me desperate, well then I guess I am.

Morpheus, Bowie, MD said...

Just reread my last post, should have ended it with "queue the tiny violins"

kyle farmer said...

Morpheus I feel your pain being closer to 95 we have gotten far less snow than down a few miles in jarretsville and other northern parts the last few years but this year we have gotten a lot so I feel lucky hopefully everyone gets in on this one and gets a lot too

Morpheus, Bowie, MD said...

Kyle - with all the cold this winter we had the perfect opportunity for storms that could have been all snow across the state. The moisture and cold just have not lined up temporally. I also may need to adjust my expectations as it has been only a few years ago since I lived in Gylndon...so perhaps I still have highlander snow expectation. ;-)

NeedaSnowday said...

Morph....I think we are all pulling for you to get clobbered by snow and no rain!!

kyle farmer said...
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kyle farmer said...

Anything is better than ice Andy give us two feet please.

Morpheus, Bowie, MD said...

Thanks NeedaSnowday - hope old man winter hears you and brings out his meanest snow club! I am ready to be clobbered!

Tina said...

::tiny violins playing background music::

I just hope everyone gets the snow they're hoping for and not ice! It looks like folks wayyyy further west are gonna get shellacked with heavy ice.

Butch Dynomite said...

Yeah probably going to watch Bowie more than parkville this weekend.

BioPat said...

Just read Joe Bastardi's latest post. I hope I'm not misunderstanding but he stated that of the storm continues to trend south it could be a major bust. Now, I'm assuming he must be discussing his turn and not Baltimore area, but I am curious. What's your read on this Andy?

Mike Cheuvront said...

THIS IS FOR RAVENSBBR---RIGHT OFF FACEBOOK----Garrett Bastardi Weather
One more thing to add, with the latest trends, especially aloft in the atmosphere, a major bust potential is really coming into the picture. It could just be a rogue day of model runs, but the trend is continuing weaker and farther south. We will see what happens. Not backing off my call yet, but things will need to turn around tonight, otherwise this will be a last second bust.
-GB
--------I AM NOT SAYING I BELIEVE THIS I AM JUST POSTING WHAT WAS SAID----MIKE C

Mike Cheuvront said...

BIO-I THINK THIS MAY CLARIFY. HE HAD HEAVY SNOW MORE NORTH OF MD. BUT I BELIEVE INDICATORS ARE MOVING IT MORE SOUTH. HERE IS ANOTHER POST------No changes from my thinking. Although there has been a noticeable shift south in the guidance today, but thats not uncommon. The GFS Ensembles, the Euro ENS and the JMA continue to be quite a bit north, while the Euro and GFS did move a good bit south, but Im not going to jump around with the models. I will have a snowfall accumulations map out by either late tonight or tomorrow afternoon. If I continue to see the trend south progress then I will begin to get a bit worried about my ideas, but as of now things seem pretty good. Have a great day.
-GB

Jeremy S. said...

Geez! Now do we have to worry about this storm coming too south? The latest 18z run of the GFS puts the places in Andy's 12-16" zone at 5-7"...

Morpheus, Bowie, MD said...

Could be good for Bowie and us lowlanders...just say'in.

BioPat said...

Mike, thanks for clarification, that was my thinking as well having read his posts today. So, I am guessing Balto and south could take a significant hit if this stays the course.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Just have to watch the trends and that is why you can't make a forecast way ahead of time. It is all about how the models handle the evolution of the strength of the PV. This is not a rain maker and the trends were clear as of early this morning.

Baltimore Ravens champ 2015 said...

I know we are still to far away to really nail this storm down, but what are the possibilities that the boundary tracks further south and leaves us with a 1 to 3 event. Or it weakness its way to the east? Thoughts please

Baltimore Ravens champ 2015 said...

Or to simplify my question, is this storm bust proof?

ravensbbr said...

LOL, Mike. However, in the battle of heavyweight weather prognosticators, Andy vs. Garrett...I got Andy and $20.

Be the champ, you gotta beat the champ. :)

ravensbbr said...

BRChamp2015, nothing here on Earth is bust proof, friend.

But I'd say 70%, Central MD gets schwacked with no less then 6".

What am I basing it on? Models, trends, heavy doses of people that actually know what they're talking about (Andy, Justin Berk, etc.) and a gut shot call. So far this winter, the trend has been for storms to overachieve and be snow makers. Not ALL of them, but the trend is snowier and colder then the MSM predicts.

And that's worth everything you just paid for it. ;)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...
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Andy, Southern York County Pa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Finally back to freedom after a lot of hustle today! I had a chance to look over some things and even glance about what others are saying about this storm. My ideas are not changed. I am not a fan of accuweather public products, but they have some great mets on staff. One thing I found was AN OUTSTANDING SIMPLE explanation of what we have been talking about here the last couple of days about the complexity of this storm, the south trend etc.

Rayno does A SPOT ON explanation of EXACTLY what I have been thinking and why I have Baltimore in the 8-12 range "IDEA". I still like that idea and the 12-16 north because of high ratios.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snowstorm-coming-plains-northeast-and-mid-atlantic/2430839568001

Mike Cheuvront said...

LOL, Mike. However, in the battle of heavyweight weather prognosticators, Andy vs. Garrett...I got Andy and $20.

Be the champ, you gotta beat the champ. :)

****I thought you would enjoy MY BOY'S take.**** I don't bet but if I did I would not bet against Andy EVER! He is awesome. I enjoy following several sources to get a real flavor for what may happen. I like Justin B, Joe B. Henry Margusity from Accu Weather also.

BioPat said...

Right there with you Mike. The guys you listed are my "go to" guys when it comes to weather events.

My colleagues at school often inquire about my sources and these are always the ones I list. They have collectively been on target 90% of the time.

kyle farmer said...

Very good video by him putting what could happen on the table very honest thanks Andy for sharing hopefully you both are right and everyone gets in on the fun and we get slammed.

ravensbbr said...
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Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Ravensbbr - how about Bowie? Should be under a foot of snow Monday night!

Mark C said...

Sorry, but I'm still not seeing the same snow Andy is... GFS ensembles almost all have the 540 line north of B-more until mid-day Monday. ECMWF models seem to agree. And even when the surface temps drop well below freezing, model profiles show enough of a warm layer aloft to keep sleet in the picture for a while. So, I'm seeing a much lower accumulation for B-more through the WV panhandle.

Of course, I'm a bit rusty (haven't done any real forecast work for a while... just like to dabble from time to time). Either way, an interesting event.

ravensbbr said...

Morph, this one's for you, sir. Puts Bowie around ground zero if I'm reading this right :)

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif

Tina said...

Tuesday, I wanna hear Morph making muffled sounds b/c he's so buried with snow, only raising his fists so someone knows where he is!!

:D