Thursday, February 13, 2014

Working The Storm With You

Working The Storm With You 

5:20 PM EST 2/13 - LET'S GET READY TO RUUUMMMBBLEE!


Felt cheated out of an early end to that nice fluffy snow? Get ready for the finale!
  • The Capital Weather Gang at the Washington Post reported that Roanoke received 6 INCHES IN 3 HOURS from this SnowRumbleFest! 
  • THUNDERSLEET in Baltimore will be changing back over to snow and then come down in BUCKETS!
  • 6-12 MORE INCHES?!?! YES, FOR NORTHEAST MD, DELAWARE, PHILADELPHIA AND NEW JERSEY. We are not making this up. See the latest NOAA High Resolution Rapid Refresh. Better sit down first, these are projected NEW TOTALS!

WHAT'S GOING ON HERE ??? Earlier today we noted a report from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) about potentially strong bursts of "convective snow" coming late this afternoon to early this evening. Some areas along and east of the Chesapeake Bay are about to get WHOMPED in the next 3-5 hours! 


SEE FOR YOURSELF! If you look at this radar, you can see the system is fully rotating almost like a tropical cyclone embedded in the satellite imagery!

THE BOWLING SNOWBALL. Current radar loops, you can see the pronounced rotation of the upper level low rolling towards the Chesapeake Bay region. It's almost developing a "snowballing" effect as the radar has begun to fill in as the energy approaches. 

GOT THUNDERSLEET? The terms "convective snow" indicates very rapid vertical motion of moisture, but instead of a thunderstorm, this may be more like a "snow monsoon." Once this energy crosses the Chesapeake, we believe it will produce snowfall rates of 1/2" to 2" an hour for perhaps 3 HOURS! If you're in Southern, Central or Eastern MD you may hear THUNDER and have LIGHTNING as well.

AREAS TO BE MOST IMPACTED (With heaviest snowfall rates)
* Central VA, Southern Maryland, and MD counties EAST of the Bay, as well as Delaware and New Jersey

AREAS TO HAVE LESSER IMPACTS (bursts of heavy snow and sleet)
* Central Maryland, Metro Baltimore/DC, Northern MD counties

WHEN? 
Now to 8 PM - Eastern areas of DC Metro, Southern MD, Central MD
8 PM - 9 PM - Crossing the Bay and reaching Delmarva
9 PM - 11 PM - Moving across New Jersey to NYC

IF YOU GET Rumbled by this bowling snowball, try to SAFELY take and post a pic of you in the snow downpour!


10:35 AM EST 2/13 - QUICK OVERVIEW FOR THE PERIOD 10:30 AM - 8 PM
  • BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL & EASTERN PA/NYC; SLEET, RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR IN MARYLAND BRIEFLY ENDS 10:3O TO 1:00 PM
  • UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN SW VIRGINIA TO ROTATE OVER CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS AFTERNOON, SETTING OFF FINAL BURST OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC.
  • NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW FOR MD & VA BEGINS AROUND 2 PM CONTINUING TO TO 8 PM, DELIVERING UP TO 3-6" BY THE EVENING HOURS NEAR PA-MD LINE, AND 2-4" ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR. 
  • NWS PROJECTS STORM TOTAL 18-24" IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MD & NORTHERN VIRGINIA EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN PA (SEE BELOW FOR MAPS)




























10:00 AM EST 2/13 - ARE WE DONE YET...OR IS THERE MORE? 




When a forecast does not verify on the LOW side, we say it "busted." When a storm produces snowfall on the HIGH side, we say it "overperformed." Whatever you call it, this storm may have smashed a lot of predictions, even by the most reliable and trustworthy computer models out there. (Above- Sterling VA NWS; Below - State College PA NWS)



And yes, there is more coming between 2 PM and 8 PM tonight, which is why the map below has the colors above. Current snowfall charts by the Sterling VA NWS and the State College PA NWS shows storm totals that are "overachieving" the original projections by at least 10" in many places.



2:30 AM EST 2/13 - POWDERHOUND PRIDE OUT YOUR WINDOW (if you like snow...)

WHAT'S THE LATEST? If you live in Maryland west of the Bay and north of DC, prepare to see 12" when you look out the window around 6 AM! (Or look now if you dare)
  • Our Central Maryland Team reported that the Sterling VA regional radar shows ORANGES and REDS on the "Base Reflectivity" Values. This is normally associated with THUNDERSTORMS in the summer!
  • Bands of extremely heavy snow are now being observed across most of Maryland and moving into Southern PA/Southern NJ. Rates have been 2" an hour since midnight.
  • Forecasters and readers have reported 6-7" across Maryland and Northern Virginia. 
  • Heaviest snow expected through mid-morning, with a brief lull late morning and a second round by mid-afternoon to the evening hours.  
  • Totals may reach 15" along the I-95 corridor and up to 18" between the I-64 and I-70 corridors






6:00 PM EST 2/12 - UPDATED SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP 



Projected Radar Loop for the period 10:00 AM Wed to 10:00 PM Wed

12:45 PM EST 2/12 – SIGNIFICANT TO MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC In the words of NOAA Weather Prediction Center's Heavy Snow Discussion (from earlier on Tuesday)
A WINTER STORM WITH HIGH SOCIETAL IMPACT IS IMMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND VERY LIKELY TO PROCEED UP THE EAST COAST ON WED AND THURS... ESSENTIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD.
SYNOPSIS – With the start time of this event inside the 12 hour window, our Winter Stormcast Team has finalized accumulations. We know the storm will move up the coast, but slight deviations in the track will greatly alter the forecast. Among the greatest hazards that will impact a large part of the I-95 corridor is the potential for significant freezing rain and/or sleet to mix in for the latter part of Thursday. This occurring on top of heavy wet snow and strong gusty winds may produce prolonged and widespread power outages. 

REGIONAL TEAM REPORTS - Foot's Forecasters in multiple states are reporting on local impacts in their metro and regional pages including our Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Team 




TIMING – Precipitation is expected to begin late Wednesday evening from south to north across the Mid-Atlantic, with nearly all snow at the start. 
  • Precipitation will continue heavy at times through the overnight hours and into Thursday for the entire region and along the I-95 corridor from North Carolina to Maryland, and extend into SE Pennsylvania, northern NJ and NYC by Thursday mid-morning. 
  • The danger time for mixed precipitation is Thursday morning. Then precipitation will flip back to snow for the region as it ends from west to east Thursday afternoon. 

ACTIONS FOR TODAY:
* Have a full tank of gas  * Charge mobile devices * Discuss family plan for an outage
* Keep Generators OUTSIDE!  * Get extra rest, stay hydrated & aware
* Check on neighbors, elderly and disabled BEFORE conditions decline, NOT just during & after!

IMPACTS ON THURSDAY:
* Widespread and prolonged power outages likely, especially in areas along the water that see precip switching between snow & sleet/rain. 

* Those nearest I-95 corridor have high probability of receiving BOTH heavy wet snow for the first 6-8 hours, then SLEET and FREEZING RAIN on top of THAT snow, followed by a few more inches toward end of the storm.

* Heavy wet snow elsewhere combined with strong winds will weight power lines, and lead to additional power issues across many areas.

* Cold ground surfaces will make for slippery conditions early in the storm, and long after in melting and refreezing Friday-Sunday.


PRECIPITATION TYPE – We are concerned about snow mixing with sleet and/or rain Thursday morning for those along and east of the I-95 corridor. We expect this to prevent those areas from reaching the highest snowfall totals. Snow will start out light and fluffy, and become heavier and wetter through the storm. Overall the consistency could end up on the heavy/wet side. 



ACCUMULATIONS – The first thing to look at is expected liquid totals which currently range between 0.75-1.5” of liquid. The higher liquid totals are expected in the warmer areas with lower snow to liquid rations. We could see ratios of 12:1 or greater for the NW suburbs, but it may be more like 8:1 further east near the major cities and coastal communities. Mixing precipitation will also hold down totals in those areas.

  • We expect a widespread swath of 10+” for the NW suburbs of DC, Baltimore, Philadephia. With the high end of the ratios and no mixing, some places could easily see 12+”  Below is the NOAA WPC snowfall probability map showing a 40% chance of at least 8" for many areas.
  • The I-95 corridor and east can expect a general 5-9” of heavy, wet snow, with some sleet or rain mixing in.

BUST POTENTIAL – Small changes in track and temperature can have huge impacts on the snow outcome. Need we say more than March 6th? We have outlined two possible cases in which things go wrong, and the forecast needs to be re-evaluated. (Previous snow map below)

  • Bust Plan A – (25% Chance): The storm pushes further west and further inland than expected. This may bring warmer air into the Central MD region and have a longer period of sleet and snow that holds down the accumulation numbers. 
  • Bust Plan B – (25% Chance): The storm does not force in warm air as much and stays just further east of expected. If we don’t see any mixing with sleet and snow occurring for the I-95 Corridor, that’s when the 9+” comes into play. The eastern shore would also see higher totals due to less rain and more snow. 
We will be looking forward to your authentic, local reports as we work the storm together!


(Forecaster Mike | Collaborators: Forecasters Connor, Jason, Joey, Andrew, Emily, Greg, Advisors Foot, Keith, Brad, Dr. Pete W.)

230 comments:

1 – 200 of 230   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

no comments? No Andy? JB posted snowmap and new models coming in

Julie

Unknown said...

Yeah...Where is Andy?

Anonymous said...

I thought the comments section was down

Anonymous said...

I thought the comments section was down

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Storm is on track to be a classic storm. Disregard the GFS.

VALID 12Z WED FEB 12 2014 - 12Z SAT FEB 15 2014
....
THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST
COAST... AS THE PHASED TROUGH ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT. THE
GUIDANCE ALL HAVE THIS FORECAST SCENARIO OF A CLASSIC COASTAL
WINTER STORM BUT STILL DIFFER ON SOME OF THE IMPORTANT DETAILS...
MAINLY THE CRITICAL THERMAL PROFILES AND IF THE TREMENDOUS
ATLANTIC INFLOW HAS AN IMPACT OR NOT ON THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. LIKE
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS... WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND/COMPROMISE
OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND SREF MEAN ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES BUT
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/SREF MEAN FOR THERMAL PROFILES... AS THE GFS
APPEARS TO CONTAIN SOME FEEDBACK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
THAT IS NOT ONLY IMPACTING THERMALS BUT KEEPING QPF AMOUNTS LOWER
OVER THE MID-ATL REGION. THUS WPC STILL EXPECTS A HEALTHY AXIS OF
HEAVY DEFORMATION/DYNAMIC COOLING SNOWFALL JUST WEST OF I95 OR
MORE SNOW FOR DC/BALT UP THROUGH ERN PA INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Baltimore city is a solid 8-12 inches.

North and west of Baltimore 12 to as much as 18 near the Mason Dixon line.

Later this afternoon I will do a breakdown of my thoughts. Remember this storm is still developing and evolving. The models do not have it figured out and it will behave how it will be behave. This has the makings of a classic large snowstorm. There is always an upside to these storms.

There is so much energy with this system that it is throwing the GFS model into a tail spin. Where banding sets up someone in MD could see 20 inches around or near Baltimore. It is that kind of storm. So many details to resolve.
Once the storm begins to come together we can look at how it has formed and have a better idea of its continued evolution.

All I can say is this will be the biggest storm since the 2010 Blizzards and the details most of the area will see a foot of snow and potentially a lot more depending on the exact evolution of this storm as it comes up the coast.

BioPat said...

GFS has just not been a good resource this year for the winter storms. Thankfully we have Euro and Canadian models for comparison and have proven more reliable this winter. On my way to the grocery store to pick up the vitals - Pepsi and hot pretzels go figure! This afternoon I'll gas up the snowblower and move it to its ready position which is locked to the outdoor garden room.
HOCO teachers hope your conferences get you home before snow arrives this evening - Be safe! I for one have lots of online work to complete and as soon as all the phones, etc are charged I'm ready for this storm! Andy I am placing a can of Manwich on the shelf in your honor - well done!

Anonymous said...

Would this be enough for Baltimore schools to have a closure for the day?
Does it have to fall in the morning (3AM) before they consider to close?

Anonymous said...

Any thoughts on us in St. Mary's - are we looking at a bust?

ravensbbr said...

Mr. Foot, in light of how this is now shaping up, it appears that the only appropriate next movie/song lyric-webpage header-thingy...simply could only be that old Kahuna timeless classic harbinger...'Tonight', by Phil Collins. :)

Unknown said...

This is going to be random but I don't know who else to ask! We live in Charles County and we have tickets to Disney on Ice tonight at the verizon center at 7:30. Do you think we are safe to go? Or will we be stuck in the snow? Thanks so much!

kristia35 said...

Yessssss! ^^^@ravensbbr

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Thanks Andy for your thoughts and looking forward to your assessment later today. We even bought some Manwich for this one but might have to cook it on the Kerosene heater.

Butch Dynomite said...

Pretty proud of myself . I am beginning to be able interpret nearly 50% of the all caps posts. Can anyone corroborate my slight recollection of a state wide policy that absolves missed school days during state of emergency?

Anonymous said...

Andy, I like your comments, but who are you!?? Are you a student or a meteorologist?

BioPat said...

Wait until he responds, you'll be a bit surprised by the career of our resident sage.

Anonymous said...

This is quite confusing. Some forecasters are upping totals for Central MD and most are lowering them because of mixing.

Some say it will linger to the early afternoon as snow. Others say it will change to rain for a lot of the region at daybreak. I even heard at some point it would last into the night on Thursday!

Some say it is coming west, others say it is moving east.

What the heck is going on??? It hardly seems like this warrants a state of emergency now. It will be happening overnight and then turning to rain in the morning...that seems to be most of what the trend online is today.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

First and foremost the Governor is not a fool. He is briefed by MEMA (MD EMERGENCY MAANAGEMENT) and the experts at the NWS (NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE). If they are taking this seriously so should you.

Storm is trending colder and snowier. My thoughts stand from earlier. I will give you details later from my perspective. Just prepare for a major snow event, stay off the roads, and enjoy a snow day!

The devils is in the details and we will all hash those out this afternoon. Needless to say this is a large snowmaker and once every few year storm.

Anonymous said...

I second that emotion - "Tonight, Tonight, Tonight, wo hoooooo...."

Anonymous said...

Believe me, I will enjoy a snow day!

Correct the Governor is not a fool, but the decision was made yesterday evening prior to the apparent developments overnight this morning. Everyone seems to be saying it is now going to involve more mixing and even a change over to rain from NYC to DC.

I always enjoy your posts Andy, just curious where the cold trend is...I hope you are right BTW!!!

Tina said...

I'm super excited for all you powderhounds who are gonna get, well, snow, not so much powder, but no matter.

But the south... I feel sooo sorry for those folks.... over 140,000 have lost power already. Damn.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Boston and NYC sit right on the Ocean much like Salisbury and Ocean City do. Because of their proximity to the center of the low they are going to have larger p-type issues than Balt/DC. At our latitude we are further from the center of the low based on current track. West cold, east warmer aloft. Our proximity is further west from the center of circulation than Boston and NYC in this case therefore colder.

Jenna said...

@Loosend - I am not sure how anyone can weather a storm without Manwich... try it with bison, jalapenos and throw in a can of drained black beans... it will change your life.

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Among other things a State of Emergency Declaration allows for the activation of the National Guard (NG). These Men and Woman have family's and jobs. The more lead time they have allows for their assembly in an orderly fashion and gives them time to make alternative plans for child care, work duties, ect. With the amount of energy and uncertainty in this storm I think is was wise to make the call yesterday - so our dedicated NG can be at their post before the snow begins. If you find yourself at a hospital needing a specialist that is not there during this storm, you will be very grateful for the NG and their Hummers if needed!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Morpheus,

Great assessment and spot on.

Latest Euro is again colder and a more overall snowier solution for the cities.

10-14 in DC and Balt City
12-20 West and north of Baltimore across the PA line to Harrisburg and east.

These are general ranges for the metro areas for all our Baltimore people. I am mobile so can't post more till later in evening. ENJOY.

Storm said...

The song "This is it"....by Kenny Loggins is appropriate as well....looking forward to more info tonight when I get home from the gym....I'm telling my hubby about the manwich for his last stop at the wal-mart...never even thought about it being a good thing to have on hand when the power goes out..thanks all...I Learn so much on here:)

Anonymous said...

@ Jenna - That sounds delicious and will try it. The local store doesn't carry bison but I know where to get it. I'm in the Edgemere, MD area and ground deer would also work. Love jalapenos too. Thanks. Andy - Glad to see the cold air still available today and hope the cold air persists per your trend.

Anonymous said...

When is the next update?

Tina said...

Montgomery County schools are closed tomorrow. Somehow, I bet it's not gonna be the only one announcing early or the only day closed this week.

Anonymous said...

How about "Goodbye Cruel World"?

Anonymous said...

when is the next update?

Butch Dynomite said...

So now I want to pick up jalepenos on the way home, but I would have to explain myself. "I already have milk and T.P. guys...l haven't been living under a rock-it's just that I follow this weather blog......"

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

NWS Storm Warning update:

Event: Winter Storm Warning
Alert:

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 AM EST FRIDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 12 INCHES...WITH UP TO 15 INCHES AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 800 FEET.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 7
PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES SHORTLY
AFTER ONSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW MAX
MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 95 ON THURSDAY...
BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT... SLOWLY
RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING...BECOMING NORTH
AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.
TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HEAVY WET SNOW
COULD LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES.

Instructions: A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
Target Area:
Carroll
Frederick
Harford
Howard
Montgomery
Northern Baltimore
Southern Baltimore
Washington

Unknown said...

Andy any changes to the storm. track? Totals?

Amy said...

Local media is causing a lot of confusion. Totals up, totals down. Temps warmer and more mixing, then temps colder and all snow event. Post above from NWS does not include Anne Arundel County. Will they be warmer due to proximity of the bay

Julee said...

Just got this from my BCPS app ... Baltimore County schools closed tomorrow.

Syracuse1 said...

Harford County Public Schools closed tomorrow.

Cathy in BelAir said...

Amy,
Local news and weather media are a joke! They do a tremendous disservice to the public by not reporting the truth. They seem to be more interested in how they look and how they sound, than really trying to get the information out that will help people in times like this! I would totally disregard local weather reports, and bookmark this blog for the real deal. Andy is spot on all the time, I have never known him to be wrong. Great job Andy, as always!

Amy said...

Yep, have been here since the blizzards of 2010. Watching friends on Facebook get extremely frustrated. I keep telling them to disregard media but they won't listen. They need to rely on people who read the science behind the weather. Not those that want to look pretty doing it. At least NWS if nothing else

Amy said...

HoCo just played that closure announcements are false. They haven't made s decision yet. If they wait until tomorrow morning, so help me!

Anonymous said...

I know I am not suppose to eat yellow snow, but is there any other color of snow I am not suppose to eat?

BioPat said...

I wouldn't eat red or brown snow, you might want to add that to your color list.
Balto Co Closed HoCo still trying to figure it out, PG and Montgomery Harford closed. My bet is by 11 most Counties west of the Bay will be closed. Still awaiting my husband's arrival home from parent teacher conferences. It's bone chilling cold out there after my second walk with the dog this evening. I'm looking forward to watching the snow fall, now matter how old I love to watch snow fall from the sky.
Andy great job, you have earned that Manwich. Enjoy watching the storm arrive and stay safe.

Unknown said...

light snow in annapolis :D its coming!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Cathy Thanks!

The winter storm warning update from (LWX) AKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Morpheus posted says it all. Up to 15 inches in the northern counties in MD!

Now I stand behind my ideas and thoughts concerning this storm. Cathy is correct about local media and it is a shame!

Regardless, we here always strive to get the general idea of an evolving forecast right. Storms are a living and breathing entity that change constantly.

We never know what will happen period and that is the truth. What I relay to you is "THE BEST AVAILABLE REAL TIME DATA" concerning a storm and you be the judge.

Often times you will see the national weather service and local forecasts catch up to our ideas here hours or days after we post them.

WHY????

Simple, my thought process and storm analysis is based on the best models, forecast trends, and analysis of data available. It's not that I am right, but the tools when used correctly guide you to the most likely solution.

I take all reliable data when I have the time for my own hobby and interest sake, make an assessment and share it with you.

It's all about using the tools. We know chainsaws are great cutting tools and sharp. But if your wife, girlfriend, or both tell you to carve the turkey you don't pull out a chainsaw and go to town!

Conversely, if a tree falls in your yard you don't go at it with a steak knife. Weather analysis is much the same. Identify the right tools for the right situation, and apply them to the problems presented. Most often you will find the best or most plausible solution.

Now if the tools are wrong or swallow bad data the forecast will bust. It happens. I can assure you the analysis here is honest and based on the best tools, and will overwhelmingly lead you to the most correct conclusion.

This is why you are seeing last minute dramatic upticks in public forecasts from the NWS and local talking heads. The data and trends concerning this storm have been out there for sometime, and now the media is picking up on it and acting as if this is some sort of bombshell.

It is no surprise to us here, because we have been sharing the TRUTH concerning RELIABLE GUIDANCE for days.

I am like you in that I want to know what will happen, and when it is staring me in the face, I will share what I see with my fellow powderhounds! No spin, no games, just pure storm tracking fun.

After looking at the latest trends I need to run to the liquor store!

Unknown said...

Hello I am new to Foota and like the honest..but still really dont know what to expect for my location. Where is Andy? I am in Abingdon Closer to 21014 zipcode. What are we expected to get. I have seen 5-8 with mix, 9 -12 all snow, to end Thursday afternoon or night. The storm warning is thru Fri? Thank you.

Unknown said...

Lol while I was typing Andy posted.

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Flurries getting through the dry air in Bowie. Just pulled into my drive and it has a dusting...so it begins! Hoping for more snow than sleet!

BioPat said...

Well said Andy! Science and nature are dynamic, a concept some fail to understand. Your points regarding using the proper tools for the job are also significant. These are all pieces I try to convey to young science students as they work through all the new material. If they can grasp these two main concepts they will then begin to understand science and hopefully get excited about all the possibilities that exist in our world.

Amy said...

BioPat- glad John will be home soon. Stay safe. I opted for Friday conferences and and glad I did

BioPat said...

Snowing in Catonsville, the ground is now covered and I can imagine the roads are slick as well.

BioPat said...

Thanks Amy, I'm glad you are home, warm and safe. Friday was a good choice for you, I am sure you'll be home enjoying some free time.

Tina said...

Light snow in lower DE!! Maybe with the bit of an east shift, we'll get our highend 4"!! Enjoy everyone... stay safe. Hard to believe it's been 4 years since our last epic snowfall(s).

Kathi said...

Snowing in Ferndale as well, ground is covered here too! Hubby just went to get gas for the snowblower, he forgot to take the gas can to work with him this morning!

Anonymous said...

snowing in severna park, started about 15 min ago

Unknown said...

Snow started in Westminister about 20 minutes ago, light and fine.

Storm said...

It's snowing in Hampstead...and The Social Security Administration has already closed for tomorrow....I have a funny feeling we will close on Friday as well.

Anonymous said...

Snowing in Edgemere and laying on everything. Also, there is some wind with this storm.

TheBigOne said...

What is the longest stretch schools in the Baltimore area *including BPS* have remained closed at any one time?

What's the most snow days in a year they've had?

Anonymous said...

Snowing in Timonium, md. as of 7 pm

Unknown said...

moderate snow here in annapolis. dusting on the ground.

BioPat said...

The '79 Blizzard we were closed a full week in AA Co. I cannot think of a time when we missed more than 5 consecutive days and I have been teaching 40 years. Prior to that liability wasn't an issue so we tended to get back to class earlier and people walked everywhere as well.

BioPat said...

Howard County schools and offices now closed for tomorrow.

Storm said...

BioPat I was in high school for that storm and I lived in Baltimore City and we were closed for a week...it started Sun night so we literally missed mon-fri.

BioPat said...

Yes, that's the one, a President's Weekend storm.

Anonymous said...

we always reference a good pres day storm each year here!

Julie

NeedaSnowday said...

Hey gang! It has been glorious in Orlando.. Got quite a severe thunderstorm earlier... Sad to be missing the kahuna, but loving the warm sunshine! Stay safe ya'll... I will check back in for fun snow updates!!!

Storm said...

BioPat....they were calling for a "light dusting" if my memory is correct and of course we all know happened...ever since then whenever snow is mentioned in this area peeps FLOCK to the grocery stores...they don't ever want to be in THAT situation again.

Morpheus, Bowie MD said...

Snow crystals are super fine with larger clumps falling between...does anyone know if this is due to sublimation with the dry air?

Anonymous said...

I am no expert but the radar does not lie, looks to me like 6 inches for Baltimore. Storm does not seem to have much depth to sustain larger totals .

Anonymous said...

Btw I would love and am open to someone convincing me otherwise.

Morpheus said...

See the part below (most current warning) about completely changing over to rain in the afternoon for my area. Our record this winter was 4 inches, I hope we top that! 4-6 predicted by NWS:

Event: Winter Storm Warning
Alert: ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 7
PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED MIX WITH SLEET AND
RAIN THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE COMPLETELY CHANGING OVER TO SLEET
AND RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TONIGHT...SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING...BECOMING NORTH
AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW AND SLEET COVERED AND
SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HEAVY
WET SNOW COUPLED WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME POWER
OUTAGES.

Instructions: A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
Target Area:
Anne Arundel
Charles
Prince Georges

Morpheus said...

Oops 4-8 inches, I'll take 8 but I am just south of 50 not 95 so...

Morpheus said...

JB final call map has me in the 8++ section so we will just have to see. Where is everyone am I posting on an orphaned thread?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous (Other), I wouldn't worry about "depth" as a concern. The low will pull plenty of strength from the Atlantic. We're all just waiting to see how far that 32 degree line creeps toward our regions.Still 12 hrs ahead of us.

BioPat said...

Still here Morph, I think everyone is preoccupied perhaps the Olympics. JB is sticking with his original totals, we'll have to wait for Andy's posts for any modifications from his thoughts.

Anonymous said...

here here it's just wet roads and a dusting by me when it starts cranking so will the comments I bet

Storm said...

Yea I'm still here as well.....enjoying a nice glass of merlot.....watching the snow....hope u get all the snow u want Morpheus...heck take some of ours from Carroll County even...we're not greedy:)

Julee said...

Andy,

In lieu of an actual forecast, one of the talking weather heads on last night's 11 o'clock news said, "By tomorrow night we'll know more."
To which I replied, "No kidding, by TOMORROW night we'll ALL know more!"

No intricate forecast filled with all that pesky information for THEM!

And yes, I WAS talking to the TV.

BioPat said...

I'll be listening for some thunder snow once this thing gets cranked.

Morpheus said...

Thanks BP and Weed - I will be happy with enough to get some good sledding in with my son!

Cheers

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Spending a pre-Valentine's day evening with my 600lb bearded babe in a thong. Signed, sealed, and delivered right on cue! A strong high pressure system in the right position will accomplish serious blocking! We have a blocking high, we have a serious low pressure system, and now a huge snowstorm. Blocking is the 600lb lady because it slows down storms and squeezes them like a sponge as they crawl up the coast.

My earlier thoughts stand. Baltimore City will have its foot on the ground and Thursday will be brutal. Honestly some of the latest forecasts "COULD" bust low. Once banding sets up you will see some 2 to 3 inch per hour rates. The storm is about to pop! Look out your window after midnight and take note, you are going to see some intense snow.

Most of us will have a foot on the ground by breakfast time! Enjoy the storm!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Since 12-18 inches are a lock with this storm and of course with banding there is always a possible higher "surprise" in spots, we can turn our attention to our next snow maker.

Anyone up for a bonus 2-4 inches Friday night to Saturday from a clipper?

This week should make the snow starved in the Baltimore area mighty happy! If it does not, you need to move to Alaska!

Unknown said...

"Turn our attention to our next snow maker."?! LOL...I can't turn my attention from my window!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Jeremy,

I know. We broke into the liquor cabinet, drank all of the top shelf, then guzzled down the rest of the wine. Now we are looking for a couple of beers in the garage fridge!
You got to strike while the iron is hot! Gfs is picking up on up to 5 inches Friday night to Saturday morning. We shall see, and I won't mention it anymore for now.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

http://www.weather.gov/ctp/WinterHazards

Just to give you an idea how some of these "OFFICIAL" forecasts are creeping up. NWS now has 14-18 inches now on their map on the MD/PA line with York, Harford and Cecil County.

Storm said...

Andy I'm staying up drinking my wine just so I can look out my window after midnight in Hampstead and see the "INTENSE" snow...I'm toasting you right now...went into work this AM talking a 5 day weekend and they all thought I was crazy....well crazy I may be BUT I was right so who's looking CRAZY now:)

Morpheus said...

Yes Andy... your the man for calling this soooo far in advance, with all us nay Sayers nipping at your heals. Foots now has my area in their 6-10 inch zone! WhoooHoooo

Anonymous said...

not doing much here in Glen Burnie yet

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I am with you guys. I love this crazy stuff. Too much fun! I love to chase storms, read about storms, sift through maps, data, and anything relevant. After about 14 years of this you start to have an appreciation of what works and what fails. Most of our historic storms come in mid February because of climatology for this region.

This year has been fantastic and this week will be memorable for my friends in and around the cities who love snow.

I was worried it would not snow because JULEE failed to provide a bird report. I am sure they were crazy at the feeder and she forgot! I expect one by the am from her :)

janbm said...

Andy, Biopat, and all the other Foots gang- I love a great snow storm. My kids at school know Im going to get off track when the weather goes crazy. I know I can keep returning to Foots to read the repartee between all of you. Coming down pretty quick here in western Frederick, MD. Andy - you rock!You called it.

Storm said...

It's midnight and I'll enjoy another glass of wine and then I'm going to my sunrooom to enjoy the "INTENSE" snow...save some of ur alcohol guys...the storm is just getting started:)

Butch Dynomite said...

Happy for morpheus finnaly. For me. Big. Fat cabernet

Cathy in BelAir said...

A few years ago, I would tell my family and friends about what this guy "Andy" in this blog I read was predicting, and since it wasn't exactly what was being forecast on TV, they would just roll their eyes, say uh huh, and not believe me. NOW - they all call me to find out what Andy says is going to happen! lol, I love it!! Oh, and by the way I'm working on a bottle of White Zinfendel. :-)

Unknown said...

I have been following this blog for 5 years, and I definitely look for Andy's 2 cents. Thank You

Anonymous said...

about 2" here BWI now coming down fast and furious

Julie

Anonymous said...

about to puke snow BWI band shows maybe up to 3" an hour and thundersnow

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

EURO EURO EURO!!! RAP RAP RAP!!! BOOM BOOM BOOM!!!!!!!!! HRRRRRRR


I think the upside idea concerning convective banding and deformation areas is likely to come to fruition. Latest EURO picks up on this well. RAP and HRR (short term models) have also honed in on the mesoscale nature of this system.

If this performs as modeled Baltimore and Washington metro areas could see a widespread 18-24 inches thorough Friday morning. There is a chance there could be 4-5 inch per hour rates under convective banding.

We can dig out and get ready for a clipper which could drop as much as 3-4, maybe 5 new inches Friday night to Saturday.

Again I will not comment on that until this storm is done, but I thought I would at least put it out there because it shows up!

We can sit back and watch this unfold. This is a CLASSIC MID ATLANTIC BIGGGGGGGG KAHUNA and this is our big day! Dare I say ULTRA KAHUNA!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Radar and vort pass for Friday night have promise!!!!!! Could we get another WINTER STORM WATCH?????? TIME WILL TELL.

Anonymous said...

wow I am staying up for this one!!!

Anonymous said...

Andy-- what are you seeing for totals in the northeastern part of Cecil county?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

It really is a guessing game for Cecil and everyone because of the insane convective banding showing up and impressive deformation band. Models never get this perfect so it is an art.

I am sticking to my call for 12 inches plus in Baltimore city, with 12-18 in the burbs. Isolated totals of 24 possible in banding. This includes Cecil.

That's the best that can be done. Pinpointing exact totals is a guessing game. Regardless, we win!! A 1-2 foot snowstorm is upon us,

Anonymous said...

Thanks and great job giving us realistic and real time information!

Anonymous said...

fantastic

Lance in Catonsville said...

Andy,
Thanks for your interpretation of the models. I await the ridiculous snows that approach Baltimore. Time to get another beverage and watch the winter wonderland!

Anonymous said...

it's great to know we are all up doing the same thing!!

Unknown said...

We're about to get pummeled

Anonymous said...

I am a waiting for the pummel. Its near whiteout at BWI but no thunder.

Storm said...

Yea no thunder in Hampstead yet either BUT still beautiful:)......who can sleep at a time like this anyway....LOL!!!

Lance in Catonsville said...

Still mesmerized by the rate of snowfall. Not able to get outside to measure snow without waking family, but it appears to be a solid 8" on patio table. Unscientific observations, but a beautiful sight none the less.

Lance in Catonsville said...

Forgot to mention winds are definitely picking up. Snow blowing around a good bit.

TheBigOne said...

Enjoy you're white Christmas Mid Atlanticans! :)

Wisconsin Native said...

So this is definitely the bust scenario (higher snowfall) correct? I shoveled about 5 inches around midnight and at 5 shoveled another 7 inches around 5 AM. I stopped following the national and local weatherman and just checked out Foots because their seemed to be a method behind the madness. Good call on this storm. It more than makes up for that Rain (supposed to be Blizzard) from last March! :)

Wisconsin Native said...

I should also add this is for Anne Arundell which resides east of I 95 where most projections out WAY underestimated our totals. I saw places like Frederick and Owings Mills have gotten 17+ inches and it's not even 6AM!

Anonymous said...

Giant flakes and 32° in Perry Hall now. The changeover is beginning...

ravensbbr said...

in the words of the timeless powderhound nursery rhyme,

"Rain/snow line, rain/snow line, go away. Come back again NEVER!!!"

#oratleaststaymuchmuchfurthersouth #littlebitslaphappyhere #goodnightandgoodluck


Anonymous said...

sleeting at BWI

Rachel said...

Old PA residence here. WV Now. Measured 14.5 at 5.45 AM.... It's coming down hard!

Kristen said...

Mount Airy has 12 inches and its coming down quick with large flakes.

BioPat said...

Good Morning All! Welcome to Winter Wonderland 2014! Andy, your the man, right on top of this since last week! The wind woke me this morning and as I look out the window - SLAMMED!
It took my husband over an hour to get home after conferences last evening. He said the roads weren't too bad but the band of plows salting the road had traffic to a crawl. I have finally convinced him that leaving for OC Saturday might be reasonable,
Sorry I couldn't stay up last night to join the blog, but I loved reading it this morning. Andy have a Manwich omelet this morning to celebrate your success, You may need the protein to power through the snow later today.

Unknown said...

This is a glorious morning here in Reisterstown. It's over a foot here and the rates right now are insane!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I looked out the window and was surprised to see it snow! Baltimore radio station as late as noon yesterday said only 2-3 inches and no big deal, DESPITE WINTER STORM WARNINGS to the CONTRARY!!! WHAT GIVES? WHY WERE WE NOT WARNED???????? WAIT WE WERE!!!!! Good morning and enjoy the "GROUND TRUTH" and the "SURPRISE" BLIZZARD of 2014. Follow reliable data and you are apt to win the vast majority of time. Follow baseless canned forecasts from the radio and local tv, and you might just sleep in your car.

ENJOY A SNOWDAY OR TWO!!

Amy said...

Sadly I'm east of the sleet line. Sounds more like rain. Saw he beautiful accumulation before the drops started beating it down,

Anonymous said...

Andy..Andy..Andy...You called this storm and it came. From pulling out your kevlar, to eating manwich sandwiches/omelet/use ur imaginations, and befriending a 600lb bearded babe in a thong. It's been fun. This storm on this site is named after u my friend

Unknown said...

Andy how much wrap around snow could we get for those who have changed to sleet and rain

Herb said...

Waking up to a pile of snow here in Roland Park - looks to be 8" if I'm guessing by looking out back. (haven't ventured out yet) Wish I could have seen it fall last night; sometimes ya just gotta sleep. Next best thing - reading all the last night comments!

BioPat said...

Currently sleeting in Catonsville, in fact it's pounding on the windows. However, Ellicott City just about 3 miles west is all snow so we're right on that line. I expect it to turn back to snow soon. I'm hoping Hospice is not coming today as it means we've got to shovel early.
It is so nice to sit and enjoy my coffee and the silence of the house on a snowy morning.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't look like much at my house in New Freedom, 8" maybe.

Amy said...

Kyle, according to local news it would only be 1-2-4 inches. Ha ha is that specific enough?

Unknown said...

Atleast Wbal said there was a chance of wrap around abc2said no more accumulations they could atleast say there is chance and we would have had 18 in harford if it didn't change over had 14 before it started pouring rain

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS BALT WASH CONTINUES TO UP THEIR "OFFICIAL CALL"

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/12499103764/lightbox/

Unknown said...

Check that Never mind just switched back to heavy snow that was abrupt to say the least very random

flipper said...

Vienna, VA showing about 16 inches on the picnic table

flipper said...

Still now in Vienna, VA - no sleet yet.

flipper said...

Can't type in Vienna, still SNOWING, no sleet yet.

BioPat said...

Back to snow in Catonsville!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
544 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

MDZ003>007-009>011-VAZ028-030-031-042-052-053-055-501-502-
WVZ051>053-131845-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140214T1000Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-
LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-STAFFORD-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...WARRENTON...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
544 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SNOWFALL RATES MAY DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL
BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. HEAVY WET SNOW COULD LEAD TO POWER
OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

Tina said...

TORRENTIAL rain... cold, torrential rain, in lower DE. The kind of rain that's, somehow, extra wet. Very high winds. Very not fun. Am seeing pics on TV from the Balt/DC area. Gorgeous, beautiful snow. ::sigh:: Happy for you guys! Feel for those who truly hate the stuff. Alas. :)

Other (less informed) Andy from Southern York County said...

New Freedom sitting at 10"+ and rising. Long time reader, first time poster here. This is the best website on the net. So informed and service-oriented. Glad to be part of the conversation...finally!

Anonymous said...

icky winter mix raining down on top of a beautiful 5 inches in Severna Park

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

MORE HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING! HRR short range model giving us a nice smack later in the deform band.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/

Unknown said...

10" in Annapolis and heavy rain has been falling for about an hour.When will this changeover to snow?

Anonymous said...

14" in Perry Hall

BioPat said...

Back to sneet (snow/sleet) in Catonsville with temps hovering at about 30. The covered front porch is filled with drifting snow which only occurs during a Nor'easter - classic!
Latest info indicates more of the same through tomorrow!

ravensbbr said...

Overperformance to the max here in NE Carroll.

10 spot avg. = 17.5"

Daggone...

ravensbbr said...

Oh, and still just puking snow...almost complete whiteout now.

Unknown said...

Fulton, Md. (Halfway between D.C. and Baltimore)

16 inches

Morpheus said...

Went to bed a little after 1 pm and it was still snowing moderately. Was woken up at 2:30 or so by ice pellets slamming against the window. Work up a few times like that - I think my subconscience was listing for trees falling on the house. Raining now and not sure when the ice turned to rain and how much it has been compressed. The snow that we have looks between 4-6 inches (car has 4 inches of clearance and it is right about there looking from the window. Very happy for you all that are in winter wonderland. Not sure our sleds are going to go anywhere on this wet snow... but we will give it a try once the rain stops.

Any chance it will flip back to snow in the low lands?

Anonymous said...

At least 18" in Eldersburg as of 8am

Morpheus said...

Never mind about the flip back question - just checked the radar and precip should be leaving the area shortly. Looking at some snow report totals a little north of here has 8-9 inches. I guess we were just on the temp bubble.

ravensbbr said...

Morph, if I understand this correctly, a deformation band will fill in behind what's exiting to the north. With the counter clockwise rotation bringing in colder air from the west, think that means we're not done yet...

Andy, did I get that right? Or even close?

ravensbbr said...

Sometimes I seriously wonder if TWC reads these before they go out..

0500L
Forecast for Feb 13

Snow
High: 34°F
Low: 23°F

Chance of Precipitation 90%
Accumulation of 1 to 3 inches
Wind N 18 mph
Humidity 82%
>
Maybe they were just talking per hour...

Unknown said...

I posted a long time ago Garrett Bastardi had a map out with 18-24" to verify West of 95! He was dead on!!! Joe has taught him well.

Manutd930 said...

Is anyone putting together calls for the second wave of snow to push through tonight? In Chestertown, we had snow until about 4am then 2 hours of sleet and then just rain currently. Had about 7-8 inches on the ground but that is indiscernible now due to all the rain. It has all compacted to abut 3-4 inches of slush. Looking forward to tonight, need something to keep me out of class tomorrow too.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

16 inches here and moderate to heavy snow falling. The general idea we had of 12-18, with areas of 24 in banding seems to be playing out as expected. When deform band kicks in there could be another 4 to as much as 8 more wherever the heaviest bands set up. York County, Baltimore County, City, and AA County look to be in the cross hair. But everyone nearby is in the game for 4-8 more.

Manutd930 said...

So west of the Chesapeake we should expect a bit less?

Morpheus said...

Ravensbbr - I see something like that over NC at the moment. There will be bit of time bore that get here or perhaps it will form locally... but if it drops the temps I am all for it. As it is this wet snow is going to give my snow blower a serious work out.

Morpheus said...

Andy - does Deform banding do anything for dropping the temperature as Ravenbbr suggested?

ravensbbr said...

Mike, tell Garrett to do someething about the sleet now falling up here. ;-P

Morpheus said...

Ok - a little confusing temps rising but expecting snow. I guess if it is later tonight, temps might drop again...

Event: Winter Storm Warning
Alert: ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 8 TO 15 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS TOWARD INTERSTATE 95.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF LIGHT SLEET AND RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW AND SLEET COVERED AND
SLIPPERY TODAY. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS. HEAVY WET SNOW
COUPLED WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES.

Instructions: SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
Target Area:
Anne Arundel
Charles
Prince Georges

ravensbbr said...

Morph, go to intellicast.com, bring up the java map, switch the view to temps. Lots of cold air still out there to the west...

Morpheus said...

Thanks ravensbbr - nice resource.

Leslie said...

20" on our deck in New Market!

BioPat said...

Just finished with snow blower, it has an 18" scoop and there were some areas I could not get through with a single pass. The snow is wet and heavy, be careful out there you all! Round 1 is competed, pulled beef in crock pot and 1st load of laundry completed. Now I'll rest then get to the vacuum - so who says we older folks can't work!!

Tina said...

BP, it's one thing leading to another... stay active, stay healthy!! Although, 18"+ of snow might be a bit much in the active part of the equation!

Unknown said...

Andy, the storm looks like it's pulling out of the area, moving west. Do you still think the precip wraps around?

Unknown said...

Unless what we're talking about is coming from the south....Makes sense...

BioPat said...

Andy must be plowing snow taking advantage of the break in the weather.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Second piece of the storm down in VA swinging up. Expect heavy snow from around 7:00 pm until midnight. 4 to 6 inches more throughout central MD to southern PA is a good bet.

Friday night to Saturday 3 to 5 inches possible in the same area from a potent clipper system.

WELCOME TO THE SNOW GLOBE!

John said...

14" in the driveway in Hanover PA. Another 4-6" tonight and another 3-5" Friday!!!! I'm headed West!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NEW BALT/WASH

...BRIEF LULL IN THE STORM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SNOW RETURNS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

AT 1 PM....TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS HAVE
RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS HAS HELPED CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM SNOW TO A MIXTURE OF
SLEET...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE. WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SNOWFALL IS
CONTINUING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO FALL AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
...AND COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...SNOW WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

GENERALLY...THE REGION WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNT WITHIN THIS RANGE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO THE REGION
SHOULD NOT CONSIDER THE STORM OVER...INSTEAD...SNOW WILL RETURN
BETWEEN 4 PM AND LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

YOUR LOCAL AND STATE TRANSPORTATION DEPARTMENTS AND FIRST
RESPONDERS WOULD APPRECIATE PEOPLE STAYING OFF THE ROADS UNTIL
TOMORROW MORNING UNLESS YOUR TRAVEL IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY

Anonymous said...

waiting on round two 12" here but compacting and slushy now

Julie

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

The back end of the storm will still pack a nice punch. I like 4-6 inches based on a blend of all guidance.

Herb said...

I'm banking on a five day weekend, here... it's like white mud out there right now!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Having some fun in the snow today.
Here are a few pictures of the 16 inches we had from round 1. 600lb bearded babe in the thong delivered! This is my rural backstop mountain in the middle of nowhere high atop a hill at 1000 ft elevation.

Enjoy the snow!

http://www.flickr.com/photos/32639942@N03/sets/72157640931575715/show

Butch Dynomite said...

White mud a good description. About 13 inches in parkville. Shovelling helps hangover though

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE
Statement as of 2:42 PM EST on February 13, 2014

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 10 PM EST this
evening...

* locations... south central mountains... the lower Susquehanna
valley... and western Poconos.

* Hazard types... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... 8 to 12 inches of snow.

* Timing... snow of varying intensity will occur for much of this
afternoon... into this evening. Slow moving bands of heavy snow
will form within this larger area of steady snow. The snow
will gradually taper off late this evening with just scattered
snow showers remaining after midnight. Snowfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour will occur within the heavy snow bands.

* Impacts... widespread hazardous and slowed travel due to snow
covered roads and times of poor visibility in heavy snow.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Dangerous winter weather conditions are expected or occurring.
Use extreme caution if planning to travel. For the latest weather
information... go to weather.Gov/ctp or stay tuned to NOAA Weather
Radio.

Report snow accumulation to the National Weather Service State
College by sending an email to ctp.Stormreports@noaa.Gov...
posting to the NWS State College facebook Page... or tweet
@nwsstatecollege with the hashtag #ctpwx.

Unknown said...

Wow Roanoke got six inches in two and half hours this wave means business and there's Thundersnow down near Richmond

Unknown said...

Every other storm has been over performing this winter, why should this be any different.

Unknown said...

Andy are those storms down by dc going to come are way they look like they are would be pretty intense

Anonymous said...

Looks like Baltimore city will stay too warm to get much out of round 2.

Wisconsin Native said...

Okay now this is weird... Thundersnow and Hail in Odenton/Fort Meade. I should never have cleared that snow off my car!!!

Anonymous said...

Ridiculous amt of hail in Hanover, MD

BioPat said...

Nice photos Andy, I see your beast snow blower has had a workout this year. Waiting now for Round 2, it is getting very grey and the temps are dropping.

Anonymous said...

Has anyone made calls for the Eastern Shore? It looks like the system will be in and out in a hurry, really hoping for at least a delay in college tomorrow.

BioPat said...

And now, Thunder!!

Unknown said...

Holy cow! Thunder and lightning in Catonsville!

Anonymous said...

Thunder and...Rain/Sleet/Frozen stuff in Ellicott City.

Does not appear to be snow at the moment.

BioPat said...

Make that Thunder and i/4 inch hail to boot!

Anonymous said...

rain. all rain. nothing but rain. RAIN RAIN RAIN. COME ON.

Julee said...

Thunderballs!

Rumbling thunder
THEN
BB's of ice bouncing around on my newly cleared porch

WHAT kind of a storm IS this, anyway???
It's like a weather salad!

BioPat said...

Where's the "Like" button Julee?

This storm is some kind of weird!

Morpheus said...

Hailed like a summer thunderstorm a little over an hour ago just when I was about to head over to a neighbors to help with their driveway - it was something else. 10 minutes later it calmed down and I loaded the blower into the atv wagon and headed over. My good friend rain accompanied me and has been coming down steady ever since. On the up side my son came with me and made a snowman with the neighbors daughter, well really a slushman...something he has wanted to do all winter. No sledding but being the consummate optimize(perhaps not obvious from my posts) I still have hope we will be able to do that. Last year I drove into a bonfide Blizzard on long Island to go sledding with my boy... love the snow!!!

Morpheus said...

I guess I upset my friend rain and it has turned a cold shoulder to me. Big fat flakes are falling. Or perhaps it realized it wore out its welcome. In any case it a beautify thing!

Unknown said...

Snowing like crazy in Annapolis

Tina said...

Well Morpheus, at least it sounds like YOUR friend doesn't dress like a trollop!

I'm so hoping the wrap-around gives us a little snow over here on the east coast... at this point, it doesn't have to be a lot, just so it looks pretty.

Morpheus said...

Tom with all the rain we had it is great to see some snow, coming down at a good clip in Bowie!!!

Morpheus said...

Ha Tina I think Andy must frequent some out of the way, dimly lit bars to find his "friends".

Hawaii697 said...

Snowing big beautiful white flakes here in Waldorf, MD. Loving it and hoping for another snow day. I work in DC!

Morpheus said...

here's hoping for another snow day Hawaii697! Telework for me... but I will take it.

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