Monday, February 10, 2014

"When Will I See You Again?"

"When Will I See You Again?"
- Lyrics from the theme song of Wreck It Ralph

12:15 PM EST 2/10 (Winter Stormcast Team) If the question above refers to when SNOW will be seen again in your location, our answer is: Perhaps sooner than you might think! Medium range projections show a potentially significant winter weather event could develop in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic during from Wednesday to Friday of this week. See below for our preliminary scenario MAP and the rationale.


SYNOPSISStorm energy currently pushing into California today will move to near Texas by Tuesday. Rain will break out across the Gulf Coast as the system taps into more moisture. Then low pressure strengthens as the system moves out of the Gulf and along the coast. As is always the case with complex storms, the precise track up the coast will determine the extent of impacts in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

Left image: Day 1-3 liquid projections from NOAA Weather Prediction Center.




WHERE MIGHT IT GO? While models have been showing a classic “Nor’easter" for the middle of the week, the exact track is uncertain. We have outlined three scenarios to account for the possibilities. We think that Scenario A and Scenario B have an equal chance of verifying at this point, at (40%) each. Scenario C is less likely, but we are not confident enough to eliminate it completely, thus we have left it at a 20% chance. The amount of moisture expected ranges from 0.75" to well over 1.00" of liquid according to NOAA projections.




  • SCENARIO A (The Rain-Maker) – In this scenario, the low pressure rides up the coast along the piedmont, inland of the shore. This pushes warmer air into the I-95 corridor and Maryland gets brief snow, to sleet, then mostly rain with some snow possible again at the end. This scenario would be a major snowstorm for the Appalachians and those west of I-95. Major accumulation would be likely for those regions, but it’s still too early to talk precisely where. 

  • SCENARIO B (The Big One) If the low pressure tracks right along the coastline, central Maryland is put in the best position for a snow event. The large scale set up for this storm isn’t perfect, but a large swath of snow would be seen for the southern Appalachians up the I-95 corridor all the way to New England. It’s too early to start talking specific amounts for precise locations , but in this scenario a widespread 6+” is possible, with some places in the "foot-plus" club. 

  • SCENARIO C (The Non-Storm) – The storm tracks toward the western Atlantic, a bit offshore. This would make for a big southern snowstorm for the southern Appalachians and into Virginia and North Carolina, but snow would be cut off before reaching the I-95 corridor, making a lesser impact event for this region. 

AMOUNTS? It's too early to pinpoint accumulations, but here is a general overview of the current probabilities from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.


We will narrow these scenarios down as we get closer to the event, with additional updates here, on our main site at http://www.footsforecast.org/and the Winter Stormcast page. Stay with us and enjoy the calm conditions for now!

READY FOR HOODIES? If you are ready to get your HOODY ORDER placed before the storm, please visit our newly updated and verified ONLINE STORE: http://store.footsforecast.org


(Forecaster Mike; Collaborators Connor M., Jason M., Advisor R. Foot, Media Director Diandre W., SE Region Director Daniel R.)

29 comments:

Storm said...

thanks for this guys....some of us are at work and can't get to any of the facebook pages!!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through
Thursday evening...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Wednesday
evening through Thursday evening.

* Precipitation type... snow and sleet

* accumulations... the potential for 5 or more inches of snow and
sleet.

* Timing... snow is expected to move in from the south Wednesday
evening. Snow may mix with sleet and rain late Wednesday night
and Thursday. The snow could be heavy at times Wednesday night
and Thursday.

* Temperatures... in the mid to upper 20s 20s Wednesday night...
slowly rising into the lower and middle 30s Thursday afternoon.

* Winds... north 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Impacts... roads may become snow and sleet covered and slippery.
Travel may be dangerous Wednesday night and Thursday. Heavy wet
snow could lead to some power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow and sleet accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.

kristia35 said...

Me likey

Tina said...

If this doesn't shift to the East Coast, I'm going to my sister's in Eldersburg.

Tina said...

::consternation::

Strike that trip to E'burg... I've got a funeral to attend Friday. Forgetting a funeral over a snow storm... wow.


Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
looking likely that a high impact coastal storm will affect the
region for late Wednesday through late Thursday despite phasing and
track differences in the models. Southern stream trough and northern
stream short wave /currently over California and off the British
Columbia coast respectively per afternoon water vapor imagery/ will
phase Wednesday....resulting in a rapidly deepening surface low
that will track near the middle-Atlantic coastline on Thursday.
Downstream anti-cyclonic upper jet in the European model (ecmwf) is stronger by
about 40kt compared to GFS/NAM and resulting in stronger
cyclogenesis and farther west track of surface low. European model (ecmwf)/Canadian
also phasing the two pieces of energy quicker. The resultant
thermal gradient in the European model (ecmwf) is stronger as well...with more
rain and sleet to areas along and east of I-95 corridor. GFS/NAM
forecast soundings show snow at the onset then sleet mixing in
near the chesepeake Bay as warm nose pushes north-northeast.


Major quantitative precipitation forecast differences in models as well with European model (ecmwf) showing a
widespread 1.5 to 2.5 inches...which is consistent to the
previous run as well. NAM/GFS showing a sharp cutoff gradient of
quantitative precipitation forecast on the northwest side...likely due to precipitation being generated
with wrap around moisture/trowal forcing and in a banding nature.
European model (ecmwf) shows more synoptic scale lift along with deformation zone
precipitation and hence the higher quantitative precipitation forecast. Snow will be heavy and wet with
12 or 10:1 snow ratios expected...although a bit higher across the
higher elevations and lower near the rain/snow line.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Welcome to a sneak preview of the "BLIZZARD OF 2014" if this verifies.

Unknown said...

Probably get shafted by sleet and rain in bel air south hopefully not though.

Unknown said...

18z nam crushes everyone wow

Amy said...

Please let the sleet prediction change to all snow.

Unknown said...

What is the GFS's problem with east coast lows. It's the only model showing a 4-6" storm...

BioPat said...

OK, under a watch but still 48 hours out so things could change, but I'd personally like to see the Blizzard of 2014!! Of course we were planning to go down to OC for a long weekend so my husband will be convinced I've conjured this up to avoid the trip. Quite frankly shoveling out here then again at the beach is not on my agenda. And since he is still recovering from the rotator cuff surgery he cannot shovel, particularly a wet heavy snow.

Anonymous said...

Oh man this is getting exciting

Julie
Smittywa

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

Relax. This is the thonged bearded 600lb babe that I have been yammering on about for the last 10 days. She did not stand me up and she is in town right on cue and just in time for Valentine's day. I did not like the weekend event that was hyped in social media, but the period right around Valentine's day looked like it could deliver.

Remember, the Kevlar has been polished for the last 10 days. I have not broken that out since 2010 until this February and I meant what I said. For me I have had a 10 inch snow storm, destructive ice storm, and now a BEAST for all to slay. My kevlar has a few dings, but for the low landers you should be ready for battle.

Sit back and enjoy. The next few days should be interesting to track, and the end of the week pretty wild.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
617 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

DCZ001-MDZ006-007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-110730-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0004.140213T0000Z-140214T0300Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...
BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS...
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG
617 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW AND SLEET

* ACCUMULATIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW AND SLEET COVERED AND
SLIPPERY. TRAVEL MAY BE DANGEROUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HEAVY WET SNOW COULD LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

If we have frequent gusts to 35mph and heavy precip as shown by the NAM and EURO, I suspect that Blizzard watches could be issued late Wednesday into Thursday. It is not time to break out the "B" word yet but just keep in mind this "potential" as we watch this unfold.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Look at the colored watches and warnings from the NWS to the right on Mr. Foot's link. The south and east coast are lighting up like a Christmas tree. A thing of beauty.

Storm said...

so for us ignorant peeps does the NWS think that YOUR scenario "B" is going to happen for the Md region? Also when will YOU guys have a better feel for which scenario we can expect in the Balto area???

as always thanks a bunch:)

Unknown said...

Garrett Bastardi Weather
Will have a prelim. snowfall accumulations map out in between 10 and 11PM. Note** there will be an area of 18-24"+ in the map in interior areas. Haven't put that much in an accumulation map in over a year!
_GB
****THIS IS OFF HIS FACEBOOK WEB PAGE*******

Julee said...

YOICKS! Maybe I WON'T be having that Valentine's sale at the school store on Friday!

Ah well ... I shall wear my new navy blue Foot's hoodie on Thursday to cast some good juju in the way of Andy's behemoth dream girl.

NeedaSnowday said...

Ahhh 79 then 81 with a little bit of rain possibly on Wednesday ...then going to drop to 66°.... Orlando here we come!!

:::::: running ::::::: sorry gang! :)

Unknown said...

I will be utterly depressed if it rains here and snows five miles down the road again.

ravensbbr said...

Safe trip, Need! Check out Disney's WWOS complex, best part of DW, IMHO..,

Julee said...

NEEDASUNNYDAY ...

Safe travels! Get out of here while you can!!!!

Amy said...

Please please please let the ratios be high, the low be low so parent teacher conferences on Friday be cancelled.

Storm said...

Justin Berk just put up some prelim info regarding the storm:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Justin-Berk-Meteorologist/54875673475

Looks INTERESTING:)

Morpheus said...

Don't like being within the 20-30 mile range of the snow line with likely Mixing on Thursday according to JB. Just one model run and more clarity to come but I hope that line moves to the coast...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Morpheus,

You are likely to end up with 12-18 inches of snow even with mixing. Latest Euro, Canadian, and UKMET crush Washington and Baltimore. A solid average 18 inches in all areas with blizzard like conditions.

15-24 inches is a possibility.

Morpheus said...

WOW they verify we are talking about a 2010 like Kahuna type event - Ok I am at the tipping point and will not be able to hold off getting really excited about get buried in the low lands!