"When Will I See You Again?"

"When Will I See You Again?"

- Lyrics from the theme song of Wreck It Ralph

12:15 PM EST 2/10 (Winter Stormcast Team) If the question above refers to when SNOW will be seen again in your location, our answer is: Perhaps sooner than you might think! Medium range projections show a potentially significant winter weather event could develop in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic during from Wednesday to Friday of this week. See below for our preliminary scenario MAP and the rationale.

SYNOPSIS – Storm energy currently pushing into California today will move to near Texas by Tuesday. Rain will break out across the Gulf Coast as the system taps into more moisture. Then low pressure strengthens as the system moves out of the Gulf and along the coast. As is always the case with complex storms, the precise track up the coast will determine the extent of impacts in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

Left image: Day 1-3 liquid projections from NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

WHERE MIGHT IT GO? While models have been showing a classic “Nor’easter" for the middle of the week, the exact track is uncertain. We have outlined three scenarios to account for the possibilities. We think that Scenario A and Scenario B have an equal chance of verifying at this point, at (40%) each. Scenario C is less likely, but we are not confident enough to eliminate it completely, thus we have left it at a 20% chance. The amount of moisture expected ranges from 0.75" to well over 1.00" of liquid according to NOAA projections.

• SCENARIO A (The Rain-Maker) – In this scenario, the low pressure rides up the coast along the piedmont, inland of the shore. This pushes warmer air into the I-95 corridor and Maryland gets brief snow, to sleet, then mostly rain with some snow possible again at the end. This scenario would be a major snowstorm for the Appalachians and those west of I-95. Major accumulation would be likely for those regions, but it’s still too early to talk precisely where. 

• SCENARIO B (The Big One) – If the low pressure tracks right along the coastline, central Maryland is put in the best position for a snow event. The large scale set up for this storm isn’t perfect, but a large swath of snow would be seen for the southern Appalachians up the I-95 corridor all the way to New England. It’s too early to start talking specific amounts for precise locations , but in this scenario a widespread 6+” is possible, with some places in the "foot-plus" club. 

• SCENARIO C (The Non-Storm) – The storm tracks toward the western Atlantic, a bit offshore. This would make for a big southern snowstorm for the southern Appalachians and into Virginia and North Carolina, but snow would be cut off before reaching the I-95 corridor, making a lesser impact event for this region. 

AMOUNTS? It's too early to pinpoint accumulations, but here is a general overview of the current probabilities from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

We will narrow these scenarios down as we get closer to the event, with additional updates here, on our main site at http://www.footsforecast.org/and the Winter Stormcast page. Stay with us and enjoy the calm conditions for now!

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(Forecaster Mike; Collaborators Connor M., Jason M., Advisor R. Foot, Media Director Diandre W., SE Region Director Daniel R.)