Saturday, March 1, 2014

Central Maryland Team
Local Radar | Central MD Facebook | @footsmdwxMD State Roadway Weather | NWS Baltimore/Washington 






STORM SECRETS IN THE SUNRISE?


9:32 AM 2/12 - A quick comparison between upper level moisture content and the sunrise shows an expected correlation... and a hint of what dreams may come tonight! 

Earlier this morning, observations from BWI data have the lowest cloud level at 25000 feet! This is indicative of just how dry the air is above us. (Photo from East Baltimore)



  • The importance ? Once moisture moves in from the south tonight, snow falling into this dry air will take a while to "moisten the column." If you want a lot of snow (and misery for all of us who work in it  this will case evaporative cooling and raise ratios. The simpler way is to say "the snow brings the temperature down with it" and this creates a feedback loop that in turn allows for more snow to form. 
  • Spot the secret in action! Tonight, if the snow kicks in rather steadily from the start, and the flakes are fluffy, it is a sign the column may be moistening rapidly and the snow machine will go to town-- resulting in totals on the higher side of forecasts.

If the flakes begin very fine grained and light, it's a sign the atmosphere above us is taking longer to moisten, and totals could end on the lower side of projections.



As with everything in science, this is a hypothesis which will have to stand up to scrutiny based on analysis of observed results! It will be an interesting night for Powderhounds and we always look forward to your authentic, local reports when the action kicks off!



(Forecaster Foot and the Advisors)



6:30 AM 1/28  Another day for you and me in (Arctic) paradise...



For those who like the cold, we hope you have met your quota! Morning lows in the teens today will seem mild compared to single digits for Wed and Thu AM! Toss in a touch of snow tonight, and that's a winter day at the Arctic circle! (Note: Photo above is not from Barrow, Alaska but the northern Chesapeake Bay - sent to us by the media production company Fogomotion.)

  • TODAY - Clouds will persist throughout the day, with frigid highs in the mid to upper teens. Winds up to 15 mph at times will make temps feel near zero.
  • TONIGHT - Occasional light snow overnight may bring up to 1/2" in some locations. Otherwise, skies clearing late as temperatures drop to the single digits to around 10 F. The good news is that at least winds will start to die down.
  • WEDNESDAY - Clouds take a break, but the cold won't! We will see sunny skies throughout the day but temperatures are only reach the low to mid 20s. Winds NW at 5-10 MPH.
  • THURSDAY - As the developing Southern Winter Storm approaches the Mid-Atlantic, clouds will build back over the area. At this point, we only expect flurries and occasional light snow for Central Maryland, with accumulating snow of 2" or more most likely in southern MD and on the lower Eastern shore. Stay tuned for a statement from our Winter Stormcast Team about this next event.

(Forecaster Brett)




9:26 PM 1/26 (Forecaster Emily) Good evening Central MD! I hope you're enjoying the "LOVELY" winter weather that we are having, especially considering the past few years of unseasonably warm winters that we've had! Speaking of winter...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION 1 am - 10 am TUE
  • MONDAY: Highs will get up into the low 30s, under cloudy skies. There is a chance for some snow showers for those of you farther west in Frederick County in the morning, but we are expecting only a dusting, if that, for accumulation. Winds will pick up in the afternoon to WNW at 15-20 mph, creating wind chills in the mid teens. 
  • MONDAY NIGHT: The front pushing through our area will bring back those frigid temps that we have all grown used to, with lows getting down close to zero. Partly cloudy skies across the region. Winds WNW at 10-15 mph. Wind chills 5-10 degrees below zero. 

  • LOOKING AHEAD: The winds will finally die down throughout Tuesday, but that won't make it feel a whole lot warmer! We will see the worst wind chills Monday night into Tuesday morning, and it will continue to feel cold through Tuesday, with highs in the teens (and wind chills near 0). 

  • COASTAL STORM? We are currently watching a disturbance off the coast of South Carolina that could potentially turn into a winter storm. Should it develop, however, it looks as though it will hit farther south to our region (SE Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina). We are also looking at the potential for some precipitation this weekend, and as always, will keep you posted!



6:56 AM 1/26 - Welcoming you to the 10th Anniversary Week of Foot's Forecast! (and "scroll down" for today's update  )
  • Ten years ago, an idea which had been brewing for several years in a Maryland high school science classroom, went live on January 26, 2004. Starting today through next Sunday, we will be marking this special occasion in our history with a series of commemorative stories and features looking back on this grand experience with you all. There will even be a limited edition 10th Anniversary Hoody!

That said, we know most come here for the weather, not a trip down history lane. To read the short version of how we started, scroll to the next story below: http://www.footsforecast.org/2014/01/ten-years-of-authentic-local-weather.html) And now, back to the weather...



  • TODAY - Clear skies and light winds allowed temperatures to drop back into single digits for some areas, and in the low teens near the coast. Expect bright snow glare this morning as the sun rises, with few clouds to impede sunshine. Highs reaching 22-25 F
  • TONIGHT - Clouds increase ahead of yet another Arctic front. Though lows will hover near 20 F, this is a ruse of the weather. Just when you thought it couldn't get any colder, it will. 

  • MONDAY - The front crosses mid-morning, bringing a period of light to moderate snow behind it. We expect this to resemble Saturday. Untreated roads may get slick in spots, but accumulations should be 1" at most, with a dusting more likely.
Temperatures however will plummet back into the teens by afternoon, and to near zero again overnight into Tuesday.

Then, it gets COLDER, with another round of dangerous wind chills Tuesday and Wednesday morning. We're ready to cry uncle, are you?

MORE SNOW LURKING? As we mentioned last week, the long range projections looked "appropriate" considering this was our Anniversary Week coming up! Our Winter Stormcast Team has a statement on the WED-THU potential later today, but at this point we cannot rule out the potential for more accumulating snow by mid-week. 


(Advisors Foot, Lear, Krichinsky and the Maryland Team)



3:50 PM 1/25 (Apprentice Forecaster J. Baron) Are we done with snow for today? Not yet.

Since mid-morning, several bands of light to moderate snow have ventured across much of central Maryland. Any snow accumulations will likely remain an inch or less with higher totals more likely north and northwest of Baltimore City.
  • INTO THE EVENING: A few more bands of light snow may make their way across the region as we progress into the early evening. Temperatures will begin dropping as Arctic air reestablishes after these snow showers pass. Lows will dip to the low teens. You can track next line of snow showers on our team's new prototype radar feature: http://bit.ly/1enEw4c
  • OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY: With northwest winds around 13 mph at times, wind chills can once again drop below 0ºF. Highs should "rebound" to the mid 20s but winds won't make things feel any different. We hope you can keep warm in these many cold days. 
  • LOOKING AHEAD: Our team has less concern now for the potential of a Sunday-Monday snowstorm. The low pressure system that was originally looking to impact our area will be moving well north of Maryland, producing only flurries or light snow. Interesting development are present in the Long Range, and our Winter Stormcast Team will have additional information on that possibility in a statement on Sunday.

8:55 AM 1/25 - Have you ever taken the Polar Bear Plunge Maryland ? Look before the forecast for the inside story. 

8:55 AM 1/25 - Have you ever taken the Polar Bear Plunge Maryland ? Look before the forecast for the inside story.

TODAY- The frigid frolic in freezing water of Annapolis appears to have been canceled, with morning temperatures in the low 20s and wind chills near zero. Temps should reach 30 at best in northern counties, and maybe crack 32 in southern/coastal counties.

Occasional light snow and flurries are expected through the day as moisture behind yesterday's front is being squeezed out by the cold air (and squeezing our patience with this weather!) Accumulations up to 1" are possible near the PA line, with a coating elsewhere.

TONIGHT - Clouds will keep temperatures in the low teens, though that's not much help for folks suffering with broken pipes or work night shifts. 

SUNDAY & MONDAY - Highs both days in the low 20s under generally sunny skies. Earlier concerns of a snow event on Sunday have decreased as the low pressure associated with this will move into New York and not affect MD as much as first thought. 

ABOUT THE PLUNGE - This amazing annual fundraiser for the Special Olympics is a great opportunity to share your photos and experiences of past events! Featured is one of our Meteorology Advisors, Dr. Pete of Catonsville, braving the elements with his family from the January 2011 Polar Bear Plunge.

Long time readers may recall that plunge was just 3 days after the region had been socked by the "Snow Monsoon" of January 26, 2011- and was facing a potential Groundhog Day Storm. For a look back on what happened (and the fun comments on the main site) you can visit this link to our story on our original main website: http://www.footsforecast.org/2011/01/talk-about-three-peat-845-am-est.html) 

The MD Team Advisors (Foot, Lear, Krichinsky)
TODAY- The frigid frolic in freezing water of Annapolis appears to have been canceled, with morning temperatures in the low 20s and wind chills near zero. [edit:  Gale Warnings on The Bay] Temps should reach 30 at best in northern counties, and maybe crack 32 in southern/coastal counties.


Occasional light snow and flurries are expected through the day as moisture behind yesterday's front is being squeezed out by the cold air (and squeezing our patience with this weather!) Accumulations up to 1" are possible near the PA line, with a coating elsewhere.

  • TONIGHT - Clouds will keep temperatures in the low teens, though that's not much help for folks suffering with broken pipes or work night shifts.
  • SUNDAY & MONDAY - Highs both days in the low 20s under generally sunny skies. Earlier concerns of a snow event on Sunday have decreased as the low pressure associated with this will move into New York and not affect MD as much as first thought.

ABOUT THE PLUNGE - This amazing annual fundraiser for the Special Olympics is a great opportunity to share your photos and experiences of past events! Featured is one of our Meteorology Advisors, Dr. Pete of Catonsville, braving the elements with his family from the January 2011 Polar Bear Plunge. 

Long time readers may recall that plunge was just 3 days after the region had been socked by the "Snow Monsoon" of January 26, 2011- and was facing a potential Groundhog Day Storm. For a look back on what happened (and the fun comments on the main site) you can visit this link to our story on our original main website: http://www.footsforecast.org/2011/01/talk-about-three-peat-845-am-est.html)

The MD Team Advisors (Foot, Lear, Krichinsky)

32 comments:

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1243 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-291000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
1243 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM AND HOW FAR
NORTHWEST ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY REACH. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Radar looks nice to the south. Nothing like a fresh blanket of snow into an arctic air mass. Winter Weather advisories north to Baltimore? 18Z or 6:00 pm will be telling for NWS purposes.

ravensbbr said...

Wouldn't Zulu time denote Greenwich Mean Time, meaning 2PM here? 18 Lima would be local.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Yes 1800 hrs, not zulu. Keeping my mind on the 18z runs which would be dispositive of WAA by 6:00 pm.

Tina said...

Downstate DE has now been upgraded from winter weather advisory to winter storm warning. I hope it keeps shifting NW for the Foot's peeps!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to
6 am EST Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect
from 6 PM this evening to 6 am EST Wednesday.

* Precipitation type... snow

* accumulations... 1 to 2 inches.

* Timing... tonight. The steadiest snow will be late this evening
and overnight.

* Temperatures... teens.

* Winds... north-northwest 5 to 10 mph.

* Impacts... roads will be snow covered and slippery... impacting
travel. Snow may impact the end of the evening rush... but the
worst conditions are expected overnight. Although snow will end
by the morning rush hour Wednesday... untreated roads will remain
snow covered and slippery.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow will cause
travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited
visibilities... and use caution while driving.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

This is now in effect for all of AA and PG County.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Advisories could go further north:

NWS BALT WASH:
Latest guidance continues to trend farther north
and west with precipitation associated from the shortwave. Snow is already falling upstream across portions of western and central
Virginia. A period of accumulating snow is expected across central
Virginia as well as the Washington and Baltimore metropolitan
areas. Snowfall accumulations will be higher farther south across
southern Maryland and the Virginia Piedmont. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect for these locations. Will have to monitor
that latest radar trends to see if the advisory needs to be
extended north and west farther into the Washington and Baltimore
metropolitan areas as well as central Virginia. For now...snow
accumulations around one inch are expected across these locations.

Unknown said...

There is a lot of vigra though dang dry air

NeedaSnowday said...

::: sigh :::

Unknown said...

I want to see some reports from that area. The radar does look good for that area.

Unknown said...

It's snowing in Blacksburg va

NeedaSnowday said...

cartopper.. ::raspberries::

I am not bitter!

Unknown said...

The reports from Alabama and Georgia sound like a disaster is unfolding there. Seems like either no one was expecting anything or pople didn't take the situation seriously...

Unknown said...

Speaking for myself only, I am a powderhound. I consider anything under 6" a non event. I want depth!Will we see that from this one or should I look to next Wednesday. Oh Yeah!

Amy said...

National weather service seems to be the only one entertaining anything more than a trace. Anne Arundel has their salt trucks out already. Anyone see any evidence of road prep in HoCo?

Unknown said...

Paul Simon " You know the nearer your destination the more your slip slidin away". LOL . Just don't see this makin the turn up the coast and giving us winter storm warning type snow. Heart breaking to see the DEEP south get a larger storm before we do.

Turning my eyes to a BIG DADDY or 2 :) for us before we wrap this winter up.

Pattern looks juicy going forward after a brief warm up.

Unknown said...

Steady snow falling in Annapolis,MD. Radar looks pretty favorable for this weather to last for a while. This storm could really exceed expectations, at least in central MD.

Unknown said...

Tom- I'm way up north by PA border in Carroll county. We don't expect much if anything. Just too dry.

Hope you get a good one!

BioPat said...

Snow flurry activity in Catonsville at 9:15 pm. Coming home from Towson this evening I was traveling with several snow plows lights blinking on the Beltway. Guess we'll see where we go from here.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Snowing herr. Already have a light dusting. 9.2 degrees.

Mike,
This is a huge win, and it trended the way we thought. It is not going to bring warning criteria snow nor was it expected to in this region but it is the symbolic opening of southern stream season.

After a couple shots at rain and or mix, the door opens to a wet and stormy February with plenty cold to tap.

Could be a very snowy month and it has me very excited.

Leslie said...

Light snow in New Market.

Unknown said...

Snowing in harford! Andy do you think that band back in western virginia could come over us.

BioPat said...

Well, we gave it a go and it produced, great job Andy! All school systems are 2 hours late in the Baltimore area. February should be VERY interesting. Although I'm not happy that our principal announced yesterday that if we lose more days we are in makeup mode.

Unknown said...

Harford county closed today heck yea glad to be a senior basically all the roads are covered the plows were unaware that it snowed a inch pretty pathetic.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

LOCKED, LOADED AND READY TO RIDE!

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1103 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 01 2014 - 12Z WED FEB 05 2014


...HEAVY SNOW & ICE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST...


THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE DURING THE PAST FEW
DATA CYCLES. THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLESOME NOW
THAT THE FLOW REGIME IS CONDUCIVE TO MUCH WETTER STORM SYSTEMS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECENS AND CMCE
MEANS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RELY UPON FOR A SYNOPTIC BACKBONE TO
THE PATTERN. THAT PATTERN FEATURES A RETURN TO DRIER, MEAN RIDGING
IN THE WEST--DESPITE THE SPLITTING OF ENERGY INTO THE
SOUTHWEST--AND A BROAD, MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE KEY TO WHETHER MOST OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATIONS FALLS EAST OR WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THE
ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE IS FAIRLY SPLIT WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT
SIGNIFICANT PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OCCURS OVER
THE MIDWEST. FOR NOW, IT SEEMS MOST PRUDENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HAZARD IMPACTS ACROSS THE RANGE OF REGIONS.


CISCO

Tina said...

I think we're really in for it over the next couple of weeks. As for the Feb 9-ish possible storm, while it's wayyy early in the game, the fact that something that large is even being hinted at, is something to think about preparing for now.

Kathi said...

Wow, it sounds like we need to prepare to batten down the hatches! Thanks for always keeping us updated and prepared!

BioPat said...

I am reading from several sources that the 1st - 18th there is significant snow/ice due along the East Coast. Although forecasters are currently looking at this weekend storm as a rainmaker, I think those temps will be very significant. Once again, as we get closer we'll all have a better handle on the event.

NeedaSnowday said...

check this post out from accuweather forum! WHOA!!

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=222480

Unknown said...

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/428619328422830080/photo/1/large?screen_name=BigJoeBastardi

Joe Bastardi just posted a tweet/photo of CFSV2 RUN FOR MAX SNOW DEPTH BETWEEN FEB 8 TO FEB 18. 3 OUT OF THE 4 ENSEMBLES HAVE THE MARYLAND AREA BURIED IN DEPTHS OF 12-24 ". WISH I COULD FIGURE A WAY TO PUT THE PHOTO ON THE BLOG. GO TO HIS FACE BOOK PAGE AND IT IS THERE LISTED ON THE RIGHT POSTED 2 HOURS AGO!

Tina said...

Yup NeedaSnowStorm ;)

One of these (or other) potentials is gonna turn into a shellacking. Don't know which one, obviously, but I'm cleaning out and organizing the freezers and getting ready to stock up. Food, firewood, bird seed...