Friday, March 7, 2014

If you're willing to play the game...

"If you're willing to play the game... will be coming around again."
- Carly Simon, in the 1986 soundtrack from Heartburn (Youtube music video)
starring Jack Nicholson and Meryl Streep

2:00 PM 3/7 - On this First "Fusion" Friday across our team, we know many readers are clamoring for a micron of good news about when they can fully engage in Spring-a-ling mode. You want to get out, clean up the yard, wash the car, and just simply not. have. to. deal. with. winter. for. a. long. time.

Still, Powderhounds know March can be a vicious beast at times, with unrelenting cold due to an excessively deep snow cover throughout our neighbor to the north. We know you might say, "But, Canada is always cold and snow-covered, so that's not news."  

It could be said that both this winter and last winter might be anomalies in that regard. In 2013 at this time, temperatures in the Hudson Bay region were near 32 F, starkly above normal for that area. Last week, those same areas had upper level temperatures at 5000 feet around -50 C. Yes, MINUS 50. That cold is not going anywhere for a while.

Where IS this pattern going?
  • Long Range Ensemble models have for several days now, been showing a significant upper level system developing in the East the middle of next week. This system would be more widespread and have higher precipitation amounts than the Sunday-Monday event of March 2-3. 
  • While it's uncertain if this storm would be a snow-maker for the metro & coastal areas, it is increasingly likely that from the I-83 to I-81 corridors may see a long duration period of heavy snow and heavy rain, with a wintry mix at times. 
  • Beyond this storm, there is no help in the temperature department. Another round of cold air is expected to rush in after this storm departs by Friday, per the temp probability chart from NOAA for the period March 12-16. 
To commiserate with our winter-worn readers, Carly Simon's timeless lyrics sum up how we know it might feel upon learning of this next fate, where she says, "So don't mind if I fall apart, there's more room in a broken heart." 

At least this weekend, the "itsy bitsy spider" will have a chance to climb up the waterspout and take in some sunshine. But alas, that won't last long, because we know nothing stays the same, and if you're WILLING to play the game, be prepared that it's... coming... around.. again. 

(Forecasters Foot, Nic R. and the Long Range Team)


NeedaSnowday said...

Sooooo beautiful out today!! Just sayin'

Tina said...

We got some serious yard work done and it's clear the birds are in love, with their spring-time-sounding tweeting!!

Butch Dynomite said...

Buds coming up

notsofreestate said...


I have to travel up the coast to NYC for business Thursday next week.

Are you still thinking we will have a storm for the record bookss?

notsofreestate said...

Arghhhhhh....bad fingers!

Record books?

BioPat said...

Great day today, but as much as I enjoy the warmer weather I know allergy time is on its way. With all the moisture this winter once things finally begin to bloom we should have a bumper crop of pollen to contend with this spring.
I will be curious to see just what the weather has in store for us over the next 10 days.

Unknown said...

The Wednesday-Thursday storm looks to be mainly rain for us. Most of the models have trended north, so unless something changes drastically we won't see much snow.

However, the latest Euro model run suggests that a very strong coastal storm will develop 3/17-3/18, clobbering Central Maryland. Way to far out to know for sure, but it looks like powderhounds like me have something else to place their hopes on!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

This weeks storm looks like heavy rain to some snow on the back end. As Noah J. pointed out the long range looks cold and stormy, but considering the time of year it is even more difficult to have any confidence in a snowy solution this far out. After this rain to snow event passes we should have a better idea of what the week of the 17th holds. March look cold and stormy with no real let-up in sight.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Models are starting to come into accord on the middle week scenario.
There is good agreement in a trough deepening toward the Ohio
Valley by Wednesday...dragging a deepening surface low out of the
tenn valley through Virginia/southern PA...then toward the New England
coastal waters as a developing gale.

The set up has US starting off rather mild making the initial
precipitation type likely to be rain. But as the upper trough and surface low begin to deepen...colder air is dragged down from the north
bringing about a changeover to snow/sleet...wintry mix. At this
range it's an impossible call to draw lines...but it appears
central and northwestern areas stand a good chance of seeing several inches of snow as the cold air sweeps in Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

As we have seen countless times this winter...another chunk of
cold air will follow for Thursday in the wake of the departing
storm. It will be windy and despite being a week away from will feel anything but Spring-like.

The well below normal cold will be short-lived though as a slight
moderation in temperatures can be expected for Friday the weekend.
However the overall pattern still favors a ridge in the west and
a trough over the eastern half of the country...which isn't
favorable for any kind of significant warm up.